####018005634#### FXUS64 KEWX 032117 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 417 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS... Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #179 was recently issued and includes Val Verde, Edwards, Real, Kinney, and Maverick Counties. Storms have developed in the higher terrain of Mexico and north along the dryline through West Texas. Several WoFS members indicated the potential for isolated, splitting storms across Mexico to enter portions of the Rio Grande between 23Z-02Z. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with any storms that do manage to make it into the watch area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to early overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day, there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 It's a bad flying day in Austin and San Antonio. IFR/LIFR conditions are still hanging around. It doesn't look like there will be a lot of improvement this afternoon. Ceilings should get to MVFR this afternoon and maybe briefly to VFR at AUS. Ceilings should lower again starting this evening dropping to IFR for the late evening and overnight. There is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening with better chances at AUS, but too low to include in the TAF. Ceilings should finally get back to VFR Saturday afternoon. At DRT clouds have scattered out and they will be VFR through the afternoon and early evening. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the better chances during the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop during the evening and to IFR overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 85 69 82 / 20 20 70 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 85 68 82 / 20 10 60 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 71 84 / 20 10 60 50 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 67 80 / 30 30 70 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 91 72 87 / 40 30 70 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 83 67 80 / 30 30 70 60 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 69 83 / 30 20 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 69 83 / 20 10 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 85 72 82 / 20 10 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 86 71 83 / 30 10 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 72 89 72 85 / 20 10 60 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...76 Short-Term...05 Long-Term...27 Aviation...05 ####018004866#### FXUS66 KLOX 032118 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 218 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...03/153 PM. Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through at least the weekend as a weak storm system moves into California. Some light precipitation is expected Saturday afternoon into very early Sunday along with some gusty winds at times, mainly interior areas. A warming and drying trend will develop next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...03/208 PM. A late season storm is approaching California today and we're already feeling the effects of it in the form of a deeper and slow clearing marine layer as well as much cooler temperatures. Models have been quite consistent the last several runs indicating high chances for rain north of Pt Conception starting Saturday afternoon. The trajectory of the storm and the primarily westerly low level flow isn't as favorable a pattern for southern areas in terms of rain but most areas should see at least some sprinkles or light showers Saturday night. Ensembles continue to project around a quarter inch northern areas, tapering down to a tenth or less in the south. Most of the precip will be done before sunrise Sunday, so most of Sunday will be dry with plenty of sunshine but still cooler than normal with some breezy and conditions, especially near the coast and in the mountains. Monday will be much warmer as the storm moves into the Plains and onshore flow weakens. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/217 PM. The remainder of next week is expected to be fairly quiet with a slow warming trend, mainly inland as California sits between a low pressure system over the Great Basin and high pressure over the eastern Pacific. Coastal area temperatures will be near normal with possibly some increasing marine layer stratus by around mid week. There is potential for more significant warming (again mainly inland) next Friday into next weekend if the ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts east into California as some models are showing. && .AVIATION...03/1649Z. At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4300 feet with a temperature of 13 degrees Celsius. Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that MVFR CIGs could remain at KSBA and KLAX through the afternoon. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions for all coastal and valley sites, but moderate confidence in timing of return and flight category changes. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that MVFR CIGs will not dissipate this afternoon. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. THere is a 20-30% chance that MVFR CIGs do not dissipate this afternoon. For tonight, there is a 30% chance that MVFR CIGs could arrive as early as 03Z. && .MARINE...03/1238 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For tonight, there is a 50-70% chance of Gale force winds with the highest chances across PZZ670/673 and GALE WARNINGS remain in effect. For Saturday through Wednesday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas with a 40-60% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds with the strongest winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday night through Sunday night, high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and seas with a 30-40% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Sunday night, especially across western sections. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox