####018008533#### FXUS64 KHGX 032121 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 421 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to work their way through the northern half of SE Texas this afternoon. Some of these have produced heavier downpours as they have trained across already saturated areas, which of course exacerbates the ongoing flooding in locations that have previously received excessive rainfall. Current SPC mesoanalysis shows an area of deep moisture convergence north of I-10 along with a pocket of 1000-2000 J/kg elevated CAPE. Both deep moisture convergence and CAPE appear to trend downward over the next few hours, which should consequently lead to a downward trend in showers and thunderstorms. A lull in activity is expected overnight into Saturday with isolated showers/storms possible. At this point, any additional rainfall will only delay improvement in the current conditions. That being said, the decision has been made to maintain the current Flood Watch through Sunday. Going a little deeper into the overnight hours through Saturday morning...Hi-res guidance has been pretty spread out run-to-run as far as what development occurs during the overnight hours. Current thoughts are that PWAT values remain in the 1.5-1.7" range south of I-10 and 1.3-1.5" north of I-10. 500mb analysis shows another potential shortwave moving across SE Texas during the overnight hours with pockets of PVA. I don't want to lean into the 18Z HRRR suggesting that the area will remain rain-free overnight while the 12Z HRRR brings a few showers/storms through the area...so have compromised by keeping PoPs on the lower end, and bearing in mind the current setup with deep moisture and repeated shortwaves. Saturday during the day appears to be fairly inactive as most of the activity will fire off well west of our CWA. Saturday night into Sunday will be the primary concern for the short- term (beginning of long-term). Another shortwave and pockets of PVA will track east across the area late Saturday night triggering an MCS structure. The MCS is projected to arrive along the western/northwestern CWA as early as Sunday morning (exact timing of arrival is more uncertain at the moment) and will move across SE Texas during the day Sunday. At the current moment the Flood Watch goes through 1 PM Sunday; however, this may need to be reassessed as this next system evolves. At this time additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches and isolated higher amounts will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday. WPC keeps much of the area (with the exception of the immediate coast) in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Saturday. Portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods will be in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall. For Sunday, WPC places the majority of the area north of I-10 in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall with the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. Impacts from excessive rainfall over the last few days are ongoing and any additional rainfall will exacerbate these impacts. Please continue to monitor the forecasts, follow instructions from local officials, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 As mentioned in the short-term, the beginning of the long-term period will feature a strong shortwave with an MCS that will impact SE Texas during the day Sunday. At the surface, a weak warm front will lift northward into SE Texas which will reinforce the warm and moist environment. At this time, projected additional rainfall amounts are in the 1-3" range with isolated higher amounts possible. Once the MCS exits the region, relatively dry weather is expected through much of the week. The forecast hazards shift from flooding to heat. Ground moisture is expected to stick around for awhile, and with 850mb temperatures reaching the 99th percentile Wednesday/Thursday, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values approaching or even reaching into the triple digits by mid week. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with dewpoints well in the 70s, creating hot and muggy conditions. As mentioned in the previous forecast, these values are 5 to 10+ degrees above normal climatological values. With recovery efforts likely continuing into next week, please be mindful of the increasing temperatures and heat indices. Wear light- colored/light weight clothing, drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, and remember to look before you lock! Adams && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Ongoing thunderstorms may continue to produce a few wind gusts as well as reduced visibilities due to heavy downpours, although by 18Z most activity should push to the northeast of area terminals. MVFR cigs will continue to linger into the afternoon and evening, with some IFR cigs not our of the question overnight. A few models hint at the potential for redeveloping storms overnight into tomorrow morning, but coverage appears sparse enough to not warrant inclusion in the TAF package at this time. Tomorrow, SE winds will remain near 10 knots (higher along the coast) with VFR cigs developing by the afternoon. Looking beyond the current TAF period, another period of unsettled weather appears possible Saturday night into Sunday. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 407 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Onshore winds have remained elevated this afternoon, remaining near 20 to 25 knots. With this expected to prevail for the next several hours, in addition to seas reaching as high as 7 feet onshore, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until late this evening. Winds will diminish somewhat heading into tomorrow, with moderate onshore winds expected to prevail into next week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible tomorrow, with a more widespread and well organized line of storms arriving later on Sunday. This line of storms could produce some strong wind gusts, as well as periods of heavy rain. Cady && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points are at, or forecast to go to Major flood stage: - Trinity River (Madisonville): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (Cleveland): Major Flood Stage - Caney Creek (Splendora): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Minor forecast to go to Major - Navasota River (Normangee): Minor forecast to go to Major - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate forecast to Major - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate forecast to go to Major - Peach Creek (Splendora): Moderate forecast to go to Major - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Moderate forecast to go to Major Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.  JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 84 70 82 / 20 10 50 60 Houston (IAH) 72 84 72 82 / 20 10 30 50 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 80 / 20 10 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-212>214-300-313. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...Cady MARINE...Cady ####018005648#### FXUS64 KEWX 032121 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 421 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS... Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #179 was recently issued and includes Val Verde, Edwards, Real, Kinney, and Maverick Counties. Storms have developed in the higher terrain of Mexico and north along the dryline through West Texas. Several WoFS members indicated the potential for isolated, splitting storms across Mexico to enter portions of the Rio Grande between 22Z-02Z (5PM-9PM). Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with any storms that do manage to make it into the watch area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to early overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day, there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 It's a bad flying day in Austin and San Antonio. IFR/LIFR conditions are still hanging around. It doesn't look like there will be a lot of improvement this afternoon. Ceilings should get to MVFR this afternoon and maybe briefly to VFR at AUS. Ceilings should lower again starting this evening dropping to IFR for the late evening and overnight. There is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening with better chances at AUS, but too low to include in the TAF. Ceilings should finally get back to VFR Saturday afternoon. At DRT clouds have scattered out and they will be VFR through the afternoon and early evening. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the better chances during the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop during the evening and to IFR overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 85 69 82 / 20 20 70 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 85 68 82 / 20 10 60 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 71 84 / 20 10 60 50 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 67 80 / 30 30 70 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 91 72 87 / 40 30 70 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 83 67 80 / 30 30 70 60 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 69 83 / 30 20 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 69 83 / 20 10 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 85 72 82 / 20 10 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 86 71 83 / 30 10 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 72 89 72 85 / 20 10 60 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...76 Short-Term...05 Long-Term...27 Aviation...05 ####018006368#### FXUS65 KBOU 032125 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 325 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and storms across the eastern plains this afternoon into tonight. - Warmer and windy on Sunday. - Active, cooler, and mainly windy pattern from late Sunday through most of next week. A few chances of accumulating snow across the mountains with isolated/scattered showers across the plains. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Current analysis shows a lee cyclone across the Palmer Divide area. From the north, a cold front is advancing southward with a push of gusty northerly winds behind it. Gusts 35-45 mph are being reported across the region from the front. Along this front, a line of thunderstorms moves across the northeastern plains. SPC mesoanalysis shows an axis of marginal instability across the far east plains (< 500 J/kg SBCAPE). This is overall supported by an shortwave trough moving eastward just north of the Colorado border. For the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening expect showers in the mountains with another round of showers moving across the northern border onto the plains. Areas such as Lincoln County remain unstable ahead of the advancing front, so can't rule out any shower or storm development in those areas in the next hour. Showers linger across the mountains this evening with remaining showers/storms exiting the eastern plains. Behind the front, temperatures cool sufficiently overnight with lows in the low to mid 30s across the plains. We are approaching Frost/Freeze headline territory for areas on the plains; however, given its current rating of mixed susceptibility for vegetation and closeness to average last freeze, we decided to hold off on headlines. For tomorrow, expect cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s across the plains, 50s for foothills/mountain valleys, and 40s for the mountains. Expect another round of showers and a few storms in the afternoon (marginal CAPE), mainly over the higher elevations and south of I-70. && .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A strong upper low will be located near northern California on Sunday morning, with increasing south-southwesterly flow over our forecast area through the day. The result will be a warm, dry, and breezy end to the weekend as the dryline shifts towards the CO/KS/NE border. Temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 70s. Model soundings suggest boundary-layer average winds of 30-45kt, which would lead to wind gusts of 45-55 mph. Some guidance keeps just enough moisture out in the far eastern plains for an isolated shower or storm, though the models that keep some moisture here also maintain a strong cap through the day. The closed upper low is expected to transition to a sharp, negatively tilted trough axis by Monday morning... which then ejects into the northern Great Plains from Monday into Tuesday. A quick round of mountain snow is likely with the passage of the trough axis, though cross-sections show somewhat sparse moisture on this side of the trough. For the plains, a few showers will be possible, but the main story will be wind. A bora-like event appears likely as a colder westerly flow develops. Temperatures will hover in the upper 50s/low 60s. Gusty winds will continue, especially across the high country. Zonal flow is expected to persist Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper trough stalls over the far northern Great Plains. Guidance shows a bit of moisture lingering in this flow, which would lead to scattered snow showers across the high country while the plains remain generally dry. With fairly strong mid-level flow, gusty winds will be slow to subside in this period. As we get into the latter half of next week, there is increasing uncertainty in the overall synoptic pattern. Recent guidance attempts to stall out the trough or even retrograde it back to the south and west. Unsurprisingly, ensemble guidance lacks a clear, definitive signal, with a substantial amount of spread for T/QPF as we get into Thursday/Friday of next week. We'll likely have a ways to go until we see better agreement in this timeframe... but at the very least, it does appear that a cool and unsettled pattern will continue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/... Issued at 1155 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. Breezy S/SSE winds being observed at the terminals early this afternoon. This puts a slight delay on the forecasted SW winds. Within the next 1-2 hours winds should turn more SW ahead of the incoming front. Front will likely across the terminals in the 21-23z timeframe with a brief push of gusty N/NNE winds behind in (Gust 25-35kts). Winds turn more NE after 00z with weaker gusts than the initial push (G20-25 kts). Showers and storms develop on the plains around the front timeframe. Although they should remain clear of the terminals, can't rule out the potential for outflows/variable gusts from showers set up to the north and east. Overnight, winds decrease becoming light ENE/NE. Saturday morning winds turn SE increasing to 8-10 kts by late morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Increasing fire danger is expected late this weekend into early next week behind the strong storm system. Gusty winds should develop on Sunday and continue daily through at least mid-week, with a gradual drying trend from Sunday through Tuesday. Near- critical to critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of the lower elevations at times, especially south of I-70. However, recent rainfall and ongoing green-up across the plains may limit overall fire danger. Still a couple of days out at this point, so no watches have been issued... but we'll be watching closely as we get into the weekend. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mensch LONG TERM...Hiris AVIATION...Mensch FIRE WEATHER...Hiris