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FXUS65 KTWC 032205

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

305 PM MST Fri May 3 2024



.SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm, and dry to start the weekend. A dry 

weather system will bring stronger breezes to windy conditions 

with possible blowing dust on Sunday. Cooler Monday than

temperatures warm up the remainder of next week with continued

afternoon breezes.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Sunny warm early May day with afternoon temperatures

and breezes similar to Thursday. Mostly clear tonight with some 

patches of high clouds, currently to our SW, moving across the 

area.



A little uptick in winds tomorrow in advance of a Pacific weather

system, currently approaching the Pacific NW, as it moves inland.

This feature will continue to move east on Sunday, bringing a 

tighter pressure gradient and strong gusty SW winds to the area. 

Wind speeds will be just below advisory criteria, in the 20-30 mph

range with gusts 40-45 mph, so no wind headlines at this time. 

What we do have headlines for is fire weather related which is 

addressed in the fire weather section below. Blowing dust also 

possible Sunday afternoon. 



Monday: Not as windy but cooler. There is a 25% chance that the 

highs could be 2-3 degree cooler than currently forecast.



Tuesday: Warmer, by 3-5 degrees versus Monday, with afternoon 

breezes continuing.



Wednesday thru Friday: Above normal high temperatures continue

with typical afternoon breezes.



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z. 

Clear skies/SKC conditions thru much of the forecast cycle, with 

just a FEW clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL north of a KTUS to KSAD line thru 

04/03Z and then FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL aft 04/20Z. SFC wind 

less than 12 kts thru 04/19Z, favoring a SWLY/WLY direction thru 

04/03Z and then variable in direction between 04/03Z and 04/19Z. Aft 

04/19Z, SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 10-16 kts and gusts up to 24 kts, with 

the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG and 

KALK. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal 

through Sunday and then within a couple of degrees of normal next 

week. 20-ft winds will generally be less than 15 mph through tonight 

and then 15-20 mph on Saturday. A dry weather system will move to 

our north on Sunday, resulting in windy southwest winds of 20-30 mph 

and gusts to 40-45 mph across most of southeast Arizona. Breezy 

afternoon and early evening conditions then persist much of next 

week, especially to the east of Tucson. Min RHs values in the 

valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values 

generally in the teens for the mountains. 



On Sunday, the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low 

relative humidity levels and a high fire danger rating will result 

in near critical to critical fire weather conditions from the late 

morning through early evening hours. A Fire Weather Watch has been 

issued for all of southeast Arizona from 11 am to 7 pm MST Sunday. 



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

 Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening 

  for AZZ150>154.



&&



$$



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