####018006589#### FXUS64 KLZK 032256 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 556 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently, showers and thunderstorms have since weakened and/or pushed out of the CWA. Rain chances still prevail across portions of eastern and southeastern Arkansas. CAMs shows the possibility of additional pop-up showers and thunderstorms over portions of southern and northern Arkansas later this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be spotty and should dissipate shortly after sunset. The pattern is expected to remain somewhat unsettled through the short term as weak disturbances push through the state. The next best chance of rain and thunderstorms will return Saturday afternoon as a weak shortwave moves across the state bringing the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather appears to remain low at this time. Sunday brings a better chance of widespread rain across the state as another disturbance moves through. Rain is likely across western locations Sunday morning pushing from southwest to northeast across the state through Sunday evening. Once again, severe weather is expected to remain on the low end...however, gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out with these storms. Overall, QPF could be up to a half an inch across much of the state with some areas possibly seeing between one to two inches depending where the strongest storms pop-up. Temperatures are expected to be warmest on Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to drop into the 70s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s through the period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: An unsettled weather pattern takes hold into the day on Monday and will remain in place for much of the long-term forecast period. On Monday an upper lvl negatively tilted trof axis approaches the Central Plains region of the CONUS in conjunction with a sfc low pressure center positioned across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with an attendant southward extending cold front and dryline that will initiate storms on Monday. A parameter space of strong southerly sfc flow which will advect warm air temperatures and appreciable dewpoint temperatures into the state setting the table for the possibility of severe weather across much of the state will take place. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already outlined a slight risk for severe weather across portions of the CWA with possible upgrades to come in future outlooks closer to Tuesday. Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Tuesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the parameter space across the CWA will be primed for all hazards of severe weather. Into Tuesday, an upper lvl closed low positions over the Northern Plains region of the CONUS with a pronounced southern stream of which will include a 70 to 80 knot jet axis will be present over the state. At the sfc, the same parameter space will exist from Monday with the addition of upper lvl dynamics in place and closer sfc lvl features including: a localized low pressure center across Oklahoma and attendant southward extending dryline with a cold front approaching from the northwest as a result from the parent sfc low pressure center fixated across the Northern Plains region of the CONUS. Again, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on Wednesday has outlined a slight risk for severe weather which includes a large portion of the state of Arkansas. Expect a second round of severe weather on Wednesday, with this severe weather threat looking to be a larger area that includes most of the CWA. Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Wednesday. It will become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be, but the region across the CWA and most of the state will be suspect to all hazards of severe weather. THURSDAY/NEXT FRIDAY: A series of multiple Sits move over Arkansas during this period in tandem with a cold front that begins to move across the state on Thursday into Next Friday. Expect several rounds of rain and thunderstorms over this three day period of unsettled weather. It remains to be determined if the ingredients will be in place to pose a threat for severe weather. Over the period in terms of temperatures, with respect to both low and high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals over the same timeframe. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Some lingering MVFR CIGs were noted at some terminals late this afternoon/early evening...along with some isolated SHRA for north central sections. Expect this precip to gradually dissipate over the next several hrs...with dominant VFR conditions expected initially. However...expect some fog to develop overnight into Sat morning...with MVFR or lower conditions possible for the morning hrs. Most precip will be limited until late morning across NWRN sections. This precip activity looks to drop SE across the area throughout the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 63 83 64 76 / 20 50 30 90 Camden AR 63 84 64 78 / 20 40 30 70 Harrison AR 61 80 60 73 / 10 60 40 80 Hot Springs AR 64 82 64 76 / 20 40 40 80 Little Rock AR 66 85 67 79 / 20 40 40 80 Monticello AR 65 85 67 79 / 20 40 30 70 Mount Ida AR 63 81 63 75 / 20 50 50 90 Mountain Home AR 61 81 62 74 / 20 60 30 80 Newport AR 64 83 65 79 / 20 50 30 80 Pine Bluff AR 64 84 66 78 / 20 40 40 80 Russellville AR 63 83 64 76 / 20 50 40 80 Searcy AR 63 83 65 78 / 20 40 30 80 Stuttgart AR 66 83 67 78 / 30 40 30 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...62 ####018007758#### FXUS63 KGLD 032257 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 457 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front surging southeastward through the area late this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and instances of large hail appear to be the primary hazards. Isolated supercells capable of producing all hazards may develop in advance of the front, south of Highway 40 in CO/KS, between 4-8 pm MDT. - Fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday for most of the Tri-State area, but favor along and south of I-70. - Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to possibly severe, will be possible Monday afternoon/evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 454 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the entire CWA. Areas along/south of Highway 40 through 04z, with areas north through 05z Saturday. All threats still in play, especially damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Not much has changed from previous thinking with two areas of concern for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening. Convective initiation has occurred in eastern Colorado near Las Animas. HRRR shows this activity expanding into northeast Colorado south of I-70 and northwest Kansas over the next few hours. Latest analysis and forecast of SBCAPE shows 1500-2000 j/kg available along with effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kts. Those parameters should be sufficient for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with any discrete supercell. Further north, initiation has also occurred along the cold front in the Nebraska panhandle. As the cold front surges south this evening, convection will increase rapidly into a line capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Given the same parameters above, a few embedded cells in the line will also be capable of producing large hail and a brief tornado. The front will exit the area by around 06z ending the severe threat, though a few showers and storms may linger past 06z in southern and eastern areas. Mean precipitation amounts for the event range from around a tenth to a quarter of an inch in Colorado, a quarter to a half inch west of Highway 83, and around a half inch east of Highway 83. The higher percentiles show locally up to 1 inch possible in just about the entire area, with up to about 1.5 inches in northeast corner (McCook, Oberlin, Norton) and southern areas (Tribune, Leoti). Winds will gradually diminish overnight with low temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in Colorado to the lower 40s in north central Kansas. Saturday will be mostly sunny and breezy with just a hint of shortwave ridging aloft ahead of weak shortwave in southeast Colorado. High temperatures will be in the lower 60s. Saturday night now looks dry with the shortwave staying south of the area. There will be some increase in clouds with low temperatures in the lower 40s. Models do hint at fog developing in western portions of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning (along the Kansas and Colorado border area and westward). Southwest flow aloft continues on Sunday with embedded weak waves which may result in a few isolated showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. There is a very narrow corridor of weak instability forecast along the Kansas and Colorado border area with a 100-200 j/kg currently indicated. So, not expecting any severe storms should any develop. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase going into Sunday night with height falls ahead of the approaching trough and nocturnal low level jet. MUCAPE increases overnight to 1500-2000 j/kg with shear values of 40-50kts. So may see elevated thunderstorms late with a risk for hail, but confidence is low at this time range. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. Main trough axis ejects out of the Rockies and across the plains with a negative tilt on Monday. Surface low will deepen in the Nebraska panhandle with the dry line trailing south into the forecast area. The dry line will be the focus for convective initiation in the afternoon and the models indicating the dry line will likely be in eastern areas at least for a few hours before moving east. Timing of initiation will be critical, but if it happens before the dry line moves out may see a short window for severe storms along/east of Highway 83. Instability and shear will be more than adequate for a risk of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. West of the dry line may see few wraparound high based showers, but no severe threat. However, afternoon relative humidity values will be dropping to near critical or critical values and wind speeds also appear to meet critical thresholds for fire weather concerns. Precipitation should be east of the area Monday night. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s in Colorado to the upper 70s in north central Kansas and lows Monday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Tuesday, an upper trough will be in place over the High Plains and Central High Plains. Models continue to show variations in the placement of a low pressure system ranging from Nebraska to the Dakotas. Kept winds where they are for now due to continued uncertainty on the location of the low, but wouldn't be surprised if later model runs start to bring up wind potential a bit. Zonal flow will be in place over northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado through the day. Expected highs will range from the upper 60s in portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties to the mid to upper 70s south of I-70. Wednesday, a disturbance will move across the Dakotas and Nebraska. We are currently forecast to stay dry through the daytime hours. Some cooler air will move in, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s in eastern Colorado to the upper 60s to low 70s in Kansas and Nebraska. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, there will be a 10-20% chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly for areas along and west of the Colorado state line. Thursday, the disturbance will continue to move to the east, with low end chances (10-30%) of shower and thunderstorm activity. For the time being, areas west of a line from McCook to Tribune stand the best chance of receiving precipitation with this system. Expected temperatures will be in the 60s for highs and the 30s and 40s for lows. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 418 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 For KGLD, the terminal is expected to see VCTS/TSRA through at least 05z Saturday, but may persist through 11z. 5-6sm in rain and VFR clouds attm. Winds, south 20-30kts through 02z then north 20-40kts. By 11z, north at 10-15kts, the veering east by 20z. LLWS 02z-05z Saturday 280@40kts. For KMCK, the terminal is expected to see VCTS/TSRA through at least 05z Saturday. Potential to persist through 12z. 5-6sm in rain and VFR clouds attm. Winds, southeast 20-30kts through 03z Saturday, then northerly 20-40kts. LLWS 01z-03z Saturday 260@60kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Wekesser AVIATION...JN ####018007888#### FXUS63 KDDC 032257 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 557 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much needed rainfall expected across much of southwest Kansas Friday night and early Saturday. Some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - North winds and cooler air Saturday. - Severe thunderstorms are expected in Kansas Monday, with the risk of hail and tornadoes east of US 283 Monday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Midday surface observations showed moist advection well underway into SW KS, with southeast winds established, and dewpoints rising with time. Southeast winds will continue to increase through this afternoon, as surface pressures fall from SE Colorado into NW KS. With satellite imagery indicating midlevel cloud eroding quickly, temperatures will easily warm into the 70s this afternoon. With a lack of a forcing mechanism, kept the forecast dry (pops < 15%) through 7 pm. That stated, some CAMs such as 12z ARW suggests thunderstorms may be entering the far NW zones (Hamilton) around that time. Any initial thunderstorm activity Friday evening would favor the western zones, west of US 83, in a modest CAPE/shear parameter space supportive of at least marginal supercell structures. Rotating updrafts will be capable of 1-2 inch diameter hail this evening. Clearly the much richer moisture will remain locked up in West Texas through tonight, so moisture quality will be limited, keeping instability relatively muted. Still, dewpoints well into the 50s will support organized linear convection along and behind the expected strong cold front tonight. The cold front is forecast to reach the far NW zones about 10 pm, race to a DDC-LBL line by midnight, and exit the southeast CWA no later than 4 am Saturday. Most of the forcing for ascent will be post frontal, with the highly anticipated rainfall and embedded thunder occurring after the abrupt northerly wind shift. Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are expected to be common, but since it will only be raining 3-5 hours at any one location, amounts of up to 1 inch may be difficult to achieve. Regardless, any rainfall on our dusty parched topsoils will be welcomed with open arms. Marginally severe wind/hail (58 mph, quarters) are possible within tonight's expected line of convection, per SPC Day 1 probabilities, but modest CAPE should keep this threat muted. Outside of storms, north winds will be strong after midnight, gusting 30-40 mph. Rainfall will be wrapping up quickly from NW to SE Saturday morning, with low clouds and strong north winds. Cooler high pressure surface ridging builds in Saturday, weakening as it enters Kansas, providing a noticeably cooler day. Model guidance shows a net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb versus Friday, with afternoon temperatures reduced to the 60s. Even with partial sunshine and diminishing northeast winds, afternoon temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal for early May. The process of warm/moist advection is expected to begin Saturday night and early Sunday, with light easterly winds and increasing clouds. Models have unanimously pulled back on rain production during this time, and reduced pops for Saturday night/early Sunday significantly. Temperatures will commonly be in the 40s sunrise Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Powerful, cold midlevel cyclone near 544 dm in strength is forecast to be over Nevada midday Sunday, western Wyoming at 7 am Monday, and eject into the western Dakotas, well north of SW KS, through 7 pm Monday. Related leeside cyclogenesis/lee troughing along the I-25 corridor will accelerate southeast winds Sunday afternoon, with the strongest winds across western zones. This synoptic evolution will begin the process of dragging higher quality moisture into SW KS from the Gulf of Mexico, with dewpoints expected to reach into the lower 60s by Sunday evening. Convection potential Sunday and Sunday night looks very low, with a strong EML capping inversion and relatively cool boundary layer temperatures in the 60s and 70s keeping things rather stable despite the increasing moisture. Feel slight chance pops from the NBM this period are too high, and most locations will remain dry. Increased south/southeast winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. An intense low level jet will keep south winds strong and gusty, and temperatures elevated, Sunday night through Monday morning. Temperatures through sunrise Monday will easily hold in the 50s all zones, as dewpoints and surface moisture continue to improve. Intense trough will eject onto the plains, with an increasingly negative tilt, into NW Nebraska, through 7 pm Monday. This northern track will essentially dryslot much of SW KS, with strong SWly winds, and blowing dust and wildfire risk behind the dryline. This scenario is most preferred by 12z GFS/GEFS solutions, but as is typical, they are probably at least somewhat too progressive. 12z ECMWF/EPS members are slower with ejection, and as such are slower with the dryline's advancement into central Kansas Monday afternoon. Dryline placement will be critical for sensible weather impacts in SW KS Monday, with intense wind/dust/fire concerns west of it, and potentially high end severe potential east of it. Latest 12z ECMWF solution strongly suggests the dryline and convective initiation zone will be somewhere in the eastern DDC CWA at peak heating 4-5 pm Monday. In other words, confidence is good the severe threat will be focused east of Dodge City/US 283, but any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of hail 2-4 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes. The combination of quality moisture and jet dynamics in a strongly sheared environment suggest high end supercells are probable; the question is where do they form, and how much time they will spend in the DDC CWA. West of the dryline, southwest winds will easily gust 40-50 mph Monday afternoon, with areas of blowing dust. Wildfire danger headlines are expected along and west of US 83. Again increased winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. Included blowing dust in the grids for the western zones, and mentioned severe wording in the eastern 1/4 of the CWA Monday afternoon. No cold air advection is expected behind this system, with westerly downslope components ensuring lower to mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. From Tuesday onward, the forecast will be dry and unusually convectively quiet for May, as the moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico will be cutoff from SW KS through at least next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key concern with this stretch of TAF is going to be a line of strong thunderstorms along a cold front that will move in from western Kansas late this evening through early Saturday morning. The line will quickly dive to the southeast providing brief heavy rain and wind gusts from downbursts for all terminals. Downburst winds could potentially be 50 kts or greater. The timeframe will be between 04-09Z where the greatest coverage of the line will move through southwest Kansas. After 09Z clouds will stick around through 15Z where MVFR to IFR flight categories will be and then clearing skies should get us back to VFR flight category by around 16-18Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Tatro