####018010506#### FXUS63 KIND 032300 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 700 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for patchy fog and low clouds late tonight and early Saturday. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening then again on Saturday. - Multiple chances for showers and storms throughout most of the forecast period, with continued above normal temperatures. - Potential for severe weather during the middle of next week, highest chances Tuesday evening and Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Damp and mainly cloudy afternoon in progress across the forecast area as a diffuse frontal boundary lingers over the southeast half of central Indiana. Have seen some breaks in the lower stratocu develop behind the boundary but tend to fill right back in with an abundance of low level moisture lingering. Scattered showers have redeveloped over southeast counties over the last hour or two. 18Z temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Today marks the beginning of a more unsettled regime setting up over the Ohio Valley for the next several days and not expected to reach its zenith until the early to middle part of next week. However the presence of lingering low level moisture at least across parts of the region and the remnant boundary likely to settle near the Ohio River tonight will bring at least a periodic threat for isolated to scattered convection through late day Saturday and eventually beyond. Through Tonight Expect any isolated showers or thunder will focus in the vicinity of the boundary and deepest portion of the moisture plume...focused across the southeast half of the forecast area. The current ACARS sounding highlights weak instability levels that have increased slightly courtesy of diurnal heating despite the clouds. It should be noted however that the actual primary windshift and dewpoint boundary lags back to the northwest from the front...and that could aid in additional isolated development early this evening focused back near the I-70 corridor. Will hold onto isolated pops for a short period as far northwest as a Terre Haute-Indy Metro-Muncie line as a result. Could certainly see a few rumbles of thunder but overall any convection over the next few hours will be disorganized and weak in the absence of little if any BL shear and light winds through the lower levels. Broad area of clear skies and dry air noted on current satellite imagery this afternoon back across Wisconsin and northern Illinois associated with a high pressure ridge. This feature will drift east into the Great Lakes tonight and while the bulk of the subsidence and dry air will remain to the north of the forecast area...this will sway enough influence locally to allow for clearing skies late tonight focused across the northern Wabash Valley. Further south across the forecast area...the dewpoint boundary will shift south a bit before stalling overnight with much of the forecast area south of I-70 remaining at 60 degree dewpoints or higher. While any threat for a shower is minimal overnight considering little forcing aloft and negligible instability...the presence of the deeper moisture will keep the potential for lower stratus across the southern half of the forecast area and may also bring patchy fog into play prior to daybreak. While the air will be slightly drier in northwest counties...there is an increased potential for some fog formation in these areas as well with skies set to clear late. Saturday The aforementioned surface ridge will move northeast away from the Great Lakes on Saturday...leaving a residual axis of drier air extending southwest from lower Michigan into eastern Missouri. This will be slowly gobbled up through the course of the day between the deeper moisture plume focused across the Ohio Valley and our southern counties and a frontal boundary tracking through the Missouri Valley. The veering of low level winds to easterly and eventually southeasterly by the afternoon will enable the deeper moisture to advance back to the northwest across central Indiana and interact with an increasingly unstable airmass as CAPE values climb to 1000-2000 j/kg. While overall forcing aloft and shear remain weak...the combination of the instability and moisture will be enough to generate scattered convection again on Saturday with the best focus once again over the southeast half of the forecast area. Storms will be of pulse intensity and may see a few stronger cells that can throw out localized higher wind gusts. Otherwise... lightning and brief/localized heavy rainfall will be the primary impacts to outdoor activities on Saturday from any convection. Temps...lows will fall back into the middle 50s tonight across the northern Wabash Valley but most of the rest of the forecast area will remain closer to 60. Low level thermals support highs rising into the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of central Indiana Saturday with the warmest reading likely to be across western portions of the forecast area where convective coverage will be lower and more sunshine will be realized. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 We're looking at a fairly active long range with precipitation chances nearly every day. Severe weather is not expected through the weekend, though this may change by early to mid next week. SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW The upper-level flow pattern across North America is rather simple. A long ridge axis stretches up the eastern seaboard and a broad trough exists over the northern Plains. Along the Mexican border, a zonal but fairly fast subtropical jet extends into the Gulf. Further west, over the Pacific Ocean, another trough can be found diving southward out of the Gulf of Alaska. It's this Pacific trough that may become the driving factor for active weather next week. Through the weekend, however, we'll be dealing with occasional showers and thunderstorms as a few impulses aloft pass by. The first, covered in the short term, is more a part of the northern jet while a second lifts northeast from the subtropical jet Sunday into Monday. With no strong push of continental air, a warm and buoyant air mass is likely to be in place through the weekend and into next week. As such, any system passing by should have access to enough instability for convective precipitation. In fact, model soundings Sunday-Monday show essentially a moist adiabatic profile. Low LCLs with high freezing levels may promote more contribution from warm rain processes. Available moisture is high (PWAT over 1.5 inches) and deep, so rainfall may be quite efficient at times. This of course depends on how much forcing there is for convection, and some model uncertainty remains regarding where exactly the vort max tracks. By Monday afternoon, the Pacific trough should be ejecting into the Plains in a highly amplified manner. Guidance shows the trough occluding quickly, with upper-level flow regaining a more zonal orientation Tuesday and Wednesday. The occluded low meanders over the northern Plains for a few days, with vort maxes occasionally rotating around and progressing eastward over the Midwest. Guidance is in good agreement regarding the larger-scale pattern but disagrees with the smaller features (vort maxes). The placement and timing of these vort maxes may play a critical role determining severe potential Tuesday and Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE COnfidence is good with the large-scale pattern, but decreases with regards to sensible weather. The primary driver of this uncertainty is variations in track/timing of various vort maxes. Additionally, convective regimes can have a cascading affect on subsequent convective evolution...so uncertainty can be high even if the larger- scale pattern is more certain. That being said, a few things can still be said about our potential for severe weather / flooding next week. As mentioned before, ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the larger pattern. Additionally, NAEFS/ECMWF situational awareness tables show anomalous moisture through this weekend and much of next week. Deterministic guidance, while showing more disagreement between individual models, is still useful in visualizing how this moisture interacts with passing waves. Periodic surges of richer/deeper moisture advect northward ahead of each wave, signifying potential for heavy rainfall in addition to severe weather through the period. Regarding severe weather, CSU machine learning and CIPS analogs have been honing in on the Tuesday-Wednesday period over our region. It remains a rather broad area, and favorable synoptic conditions (Occasional synoptic forcing, instability, shear) add confidence to these signals. It's difficult to downscale things any further at this range since the final outcome will likely rely on features not yet resolvable. Still, the potential exists for severe weather along with heavy rainfall next week. Stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Impacts: - MVFR conditions will develop across the eastern sites overnight and will be possible at the western ones - Isolated convection possible again Saturday Discussion: Lingering low level moisture will return west overnight and bring MVFR ceilings back to KIND/KBMG overnight, which will persist into Saturday morning. In addition, some fog will also be possible. Fog may also develop at KHUF/KLAF as clouds will be fewer there. Fog will depend on how much drier air sneaks into those sites. Fog will mix out and clouds will lift through Saturday morning. Heating may bring some isolated convection, but coverage is expected to be too low to mention in the TAFs. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Eckhoff AVIATION...50 ####018008528#### FXUS64 KFWD 032302 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 602 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The current forecast is in good shape (see discussion below) with the bulk of the spotty afternoon showers/storms dissipating after sunset. However, storms are starting to develop across the western CWA ahead of the supercells currently across parts of the Big Country and Concho Valley. This activity will move east across the western counties through the evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially west of highway 281. Storms should continue to weaken as they approach the I-35 corridor late this evening as they get farther from their initial source of lift. It should be noted that with transient meso-scale boundaries at play, storms could develop just about anywhere given the amount of moisture and instability in the atmosphere. Moist and unstable air will remain in place on Saturday ahead of a cold front, warranting some low daytime PoPs. Much better storm chances are expected Saturday night when the front moves through the region. 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ A Flood Watch is now in effect for eastern Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. This watch will continue through Sunday morning as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected. The weather across North and Central Texas will remain fairly active as a warm and humid airmass remains established atop our region. As you step outdoors, the humid airmass remains evident with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Early morning convection across southern Oklahoma sent an outflow boundary southward, meanwhile, ongoing storms across Central Texas continue to push northwestward. These outflow boundaries will likely be the focus for isolated convection across North Texas this afternoon. Given a lack of strong flow, any convection is likely to remain highly disorganized and fairly short-lived. Nonetheless, lighting and gusty winds will remain possible with any of the storms this afternoon. Across eastern Central Texas, another remnant boundary continues to be the focus for occasional bouts of heavy rain through the rest of this afternoon. Considering the antecedent conditions, a quick 1-2 inches of rain can lead to flash flooding. Storm chances should dissipate around or shortly after sunset as daytime heating comes to an end. This is when we'll turn our attention to the dryline across West Texas, where storms are once again expected. Although the dryline will likely be about 100 miles west of our region, storm motion this evening will be to the east with a few storms arriving to our western-most counties by 9-10pm. Given the storms will become increasingly displaced from the source of lift, expect storms to gradually dissipate trough the night. There is a low (~20%) chance of showers or storms approaching the I-35 corridor closer to midnight. Storms would be decaying, thus, the threat for severe storms would remain low. Tonight, expect cloudy and above normal temperatures will lows remaining in the mid to upper 60s areawide. Our next rain chances will arrive tomorrow as a cold front moves southward across our region. A shortwave trough will be migrating eastward, likely firing off thunderstorms along the leading edge of the front. At this time, the greatest rain chances will likely be beyond sunset tomorrow, however, a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out between noon and sunset. Any storms that do develop in the afternoon could contain small hail and gusty winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with southerly winds continuing. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/ An active weather pattern will continue Saturday night as a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet lifts northeast across North and Central Texas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Big Country, and will spread east across the region overnight into Sunday morning. A wind and hail threat may accompany these storms across the western half of the region Saturday evening, but convection will be weakening Saturday night while moving into a less favorable environment. Despite the severity or lack thereof, the presence of a quasi- stationary surface boundary will maintain a threat for more heavy rain and flooding. This threat will be highest over Central Texas where heavy rains have already occurred, and where the front will most likely be located (and is currently exacerbating the ongoing flooding across the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas). A Flood Watch has hence been issued through around midday Sunday for those Central Texas Counties who have experienced multiple rounds of heavy rain over the past several days. Convection will move out during the morning hours Sunday, making for an overall decent day with highs mainly in the 70s. There may be a few rogue showers that pop up in the afternoon but those should be few and far between. Attention will then turn to a larger scale upstream trough, which will cross the Rockies Sunday night, then lift northeast through the Plains on Monday. Most of the ascent associated with this system will remain to our north, but we will still likely have isolated dryline-induced convection Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage may be low due to the presence of a capping inversion, but we will otherwise have a warm and unstable environment in place, and any storms which develop could become severe. The passing of the shortwave will send a cold front south into the area Tuesday night. After a quiet Tuesday, the front will again provide a focus for convection starting Wednesday, as a longwave trough produces cyclonic flow overhead for the mid to late week period. Scattered showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Not all will receive rain, but just about any of the area could see a shower or storm. By Friday, the front will have sagged well south of the I-20 corridor, unfortunately focusing convection across the saturated Central and Southeast Texas. The front and trough will both shift southeast of the region on Saturday, providing dry weather and overall nice conditions in time for Mother's Day weekend. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be ceiling trends and storm chances. Spotty afternoon showers and storms will dissipate with the loss of surface heating but additional storms will approach all TAF sites from the west late this evening. Most guidance dissipates this activity before reaching D10, so will not include in this TAF issuance. Better storm chances will not arrive until Saturday evening/overnight. Cu will continue to dissipate with the loss of heating, but low ceilings will return late this evening to all sites, initially starting out as MVFR, lowering to IFR towards sunrise. Ceilings will lift through the morning and eventually scatter Saturday afternoon. A south to southeast wind will prevail through Saturday afternoon between 7 and 12 knots. Some higher gusts are possible in and near any thunderstorms. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 80 66 78 68 / 20 20 90 50 20 Waco 68 80 67 78 67 / 20 40 80 40 20 Paris 66 80 65 75 65 / 20 40 80 60 20 Denton 66 80 64 77 66 / 20 20 80 50 20 McKinney 66 80 65 77 67 / 20 20 90 50 20 Dallas 68 81 67 79 68 / 20 20 90 50 20 Terrell 66 80 65 76 67 / 20 30 90 50 20 Corsicana 69 82 67 77 69 / 20 40 80 50 20 Temple 69 80 66 79 68 / 20 40 80 40 20 Mineral Wells 66 79 63 76 67 / 30 30 80 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162- 174-175. && $$ ####018005517#### FXUS63 KDTX 032303 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A broken line of showers will slowly track east across the area this evening. - High pressure fills in Saturday supporting mainly dry conditions ahead of the next weak cold front to bring showers and a few thunderstorms to SE MI early Sunday morning. - Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION... A broken band of showers along a weakening cold front is already through MBS and FNT at press time, and will exit through PTK and the DTW corridor into Ontario by mid evening. The forecast then turns to a cloud/fog challenge as weak high pressure sets up on a axis across northern Lake Huron and northern Lower Mi. This maintains a flow of cool and moist NE wind into SE Mi augmented by Lake Huron. Wind speed in the 5 to 10 kt range favors IFR stratus over fog late tonight and Saturday morning with lower predictability on southward extent toward the DTW corridor. Improvement follows a standard diurnal trend during Saturday into a low end broken VFR ceiling for the afternoon. A stray shower is possible late in the day and closer to the Ohio border as today's cold front stalls in Ohio tonight and then moves back northward as a warm front by Saturday evening. For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight and Saturday morning. Very low potential for a thunderstorm with limited coverage late Saturday afternoon precludes a mention in the forecast at this time. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon. * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 DISCUSSION... Broken line of showers currently extends from roughly Saginaw to Coldwater, with no observed lightning activity at issuance. Instability has been the main limiting factor thus far, with MLCAPE holding aob 250 J/kg and observed temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s. Pockets of sunshine ahead of the line may increase instability enough through the evening to support a few embedded thunderstorms, but for now storm tops have struggled to even reach the freezing level. Slow eastward progression of the line (15-20 mph) and waning instability after 00z with loss of diurnal heating may prevent the line from even getting to easternmost portions of the cwa. Post-frontal subsidence introduces a deep layer of static stability to the column overnight, most prominent near the Tri Cities and Thumb. In these locations, patchy fog is expected especially as onshore flow emerges from Lake Huron. Elsewhere, weaker inversion and poor decoupling signal suggest stratus or more localized fog development Saturday morning. Otherwise, a drier day is in store Saturday for SE MI. Upstream, a surface low lifts toward Lake Superior which effectively draws the theta-e axis back into lower Michigan by Saturday afternoon which boosts temperatures into the mid 70s. The boost to boundary layer conditions will be enough to build surface-based instability, but any convective initiation will depend on localized convergence or lake breezes. So at this point, just a stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday afternoon. Broader convective coverage is expected early Sunday morning as the surface low sweeps another cold front across the cwa. Persistent lack of mid-upper level jet support and modest elevated instability suggest showers and a few thunderstorms to be possible Sunday morning before clearing out by mid-day. Mid-level ridging then holds steady through middle of next week ahead of a strong Pacific disturbance which will be the next opportunity for widespread precipitation. High temperatures will remain comfortably in the 70s as an open Gulf and southwest flow keep conditions above average for early May standards. MARINE... A line of showers will continue to work east across the central Great Lakes this afternoon as a weak cold front pushes through. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but severe storms are not expected. Light northeast wind will occur behind the front tonight with mainly dry conditions as a localized area of high pressure builds in. Will monitor observational trends over Lake Huron where conditions may be favorable for areas of dense marine fog to form overnight into Saturday morning. Winds then gradually organize out of the southeast on Saturday as the high departs east. Southerly winds up to 20 knots develop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front with winds turning northwesterly behind it Sunday afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for the early work week. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....BT DISCUSSION...MV MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018004650#### FXAK67 PAJK 032304 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 304 PM AKDT Fri May 3 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/...The short range forecast will feature a changing weather pattern for Southeast Alaska. After a nice stretch of mostly dry and slightly warmer than normal Spring weather, a front will approach from the west on Saturday, spreading east and south through Saturday night. For some SEAK locations, this will be the first measurable precipitation in well over a week. Saturday's daytime highs and overnight lows will likely be the warmest of this dry spell, but that will change with a return of the clouds and rain and heading into the medium range forecast period. Even so, overnight temps tonight still warrant a frost advisory for much of the northern Panhandle. .LONG TERM...An active weather pattern returns in full swing to SE AK as system after system moves into the panhandle, with each one bringing concurrent chances of rain and wind across the area. Aloft, the upper level pattern will sharply depart from its previous state of the past few weeks. The primary steering flow which was directing systems to the south and away from the panhandle will move directly overhead as a strong jet streak developing along the E flank of a deepening trough over the Bering Sea moves the primary area of upper level support over the panhandle. Closer to the surface, this will enable multiple waves to develop and enter the panhandle. The first wave, on Sunday, will be associated with an occluding system moving out of the NW which will cross the Gulf and dissipate over the panhandle, but not before bringing with it a return to more abundant precipitation. For more information on this system, refer to the short term forecast discussion. Lingering chances of precipitation associated with onshore flow will remain through Tuesday before another, stronger system arrives later on Tuesday or Wednesday. This second system will move up from the SW, moving around the broader area of upper level troughing. Expect a surge of more widespread precipitation to be possible with this system alongside the potential for small craft winds for many locations and gale force winds potentially in the gulf. Beyond this point operational guidance begins to falter as model spread grows, but ensembles are indicative of another system arriving immediately in the wake of the previous one, delivering another round of rain and wind to SE AK, with the active weather pattern likely to continue thereafter. This will bring temperatures more in lockstep with normal values as high temperatures return to the 50s, in departure of the 60s enjoyed during the previous week. The main changes to the forecast were significant increases in wind speeds and wave heights, along with some refinement to the QPF forecast, though exact timing for these remains difficult to precisely determine this far out. Likewise, increased PoP chances through the second half of the upcoming week given the growing agreement between operational models on at least two systems arriving after the Sunday system. Minor changes were made to temperatures and cloud cover. Minor adjustments made to temperatures to capture the diminished diurnal trends. && .AVIATION...Another day of VFR conditions today and tonight with some increasing cloud cover overnight and into late Saturday. CIG expected to be above 5k. Offshore and northerly flow with sea breeze activity continue with no LLWS issues expected. && .MARINE...Winds remain rather light and the northerly 15 to 20 kts experienced over Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage have already eased as of early this afternoon and are not expected to return tomorrow or tomorrow night. On the outside, pre-frontal winds expected to be 20 kts or less, even near the coast west of Icy Bay where barrier jet enhanced winds typically form. Based on present combined sea heights being reported by the offshore moored buoy network, the short term sea state forecast was diminished slightly to below small craft criteria, so no marine hazards have been included with the afternoon forecast issuance. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ319>321- 325. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...Fritsch LONG TERM....GFS AVIATION...PRB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau ####018008487#### FXUS61 KBTV 032305 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 705 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue across the region to start the weekend, with the exception of a few possible showers across northern New York on Saturday before widespread precipitation returns for Sunday. A period of warmer and sunnier conditions are expected for the start of the week, with more unsettled weather returning by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 700 PM EDT Friday...A beautiful early May day acrs the North Country with temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s with mostly sunny skies. Upper air analysis and water vapor indicate mid/upper lvl ridge axis overhead, but weak short wave energy and mid lvl moisture is approaching the SLV. This has produced a broken area of light showers acrs western NY into the Ottawa Valley, with just light precip reaching the sfc. These light showers wl continue to slowly move toward northern NY tonight, with increasing chcs for light precip. Have continued with chc pops with a few hundredths of an inch of precip possible, not anticipating precip to reach CPV, as ridge holds firm. Otherwise, temps cool back into the mid 40s to lower 50s with mostly light trrn driven winds, except northeast acrs the SLV and se at Rutland. No significant changes made to crnt fcst. Previous discussion below: Surface high pressure and upper level ridging across the region haver made for a pleasant Friday afternoon, with dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. As we head into the evening, the upper level ridge axis will continue to shift eastward,although dry conditions will persist. There will be increasing high clouds across the region overnight associated with a frontal boundary to our west. Unlike the last few nights, increased clouds and winds will inhibit any fog development across the region. A light rain shower or two may be possible across northern New York early Saturday morning as the frontal boundary moves closer, but any measurable precipitation would be minimal. Overnight low temperatures will be mild, in the 40s to low 50s. Saturday will be another pleasant day as we remain under the influence of high pressure, with mostly dry weather. Temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 in some of the broad valley locations, with high clouds remaining overhead. Dry weather will continue through most of Saturday night, with the latest guidance continuing to trend on the drier side for Saturday night with a strong ridge axis in place. Another mild night is expected, with temperatures in the 40s to low 50s ahead of approaching widespread precipitation on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 303 PM EDT Friday...PWATs rise to around 1.5 standard deviations above normal on Sunday as moisture with Gulf of Mexico origin looks to overspread the region. Upper level pattern shows a stout omega block shifting east of our area into Maine, increasing shower chances and coverage on Sunday. However, organized convection is not expected as the main jet energy associated with the shortwave trough moving eastward from the Great Lakes is diverted into Quebec. As a result, the main trough axis does not approach North Country until sometime next Tuesday. This will be discussed in the long term section of the forecast discussion. Indeed, forecast soundings show a lack of surface-based instability, so showers with brief locally heavy downpours look to be the main risk. While there could be embedded thunder due to elevated instability, no organized thunderstorms are anticipated. PoPs do increase to the likely category with scattered to perhaps numerous showers on Sunday. While there would likely be widespread wetting rainfall, QPF amounts are quite manageable in the 0.1 to 0.3 inch range with locally higher amounts. Indeed, the MMEFS shows none of our area rivers going into action stage. Sunday will be quite a bit cooler than Saturday, with highs only in the 50s with low 60s possible if there are breaks in the rain or clouds. In addition, a 40-50 kt 925mb southerly low level jet overspreads the region on Sunday. NAEFS situational awareness ensemble table shows the v vector wind rising to almost 2.5 standard deviations above normal, so it will be breezy if not blustery. A mitigating factor is that the waters of Lake Champlain is still quite cold with water temperatures still in the low to mid 40s, which is almost isothermal to the forecast 925mb temperatures in the +5 to +8C range. That could reduce the mixing potential in the boundary layer. So have mostly kept wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range across the Champlain Valley despite the southerly wind component being anomalously strong. Overall, no overall hazardous weather to speak of but Sunday does look to be a less than ideal day for outdoor activities. Heading into Sunday night, showers taper off and the boundary layer looks well mixed enough to preclude widespread fog development. Temperatures stay quite mild in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 303 PM EDT Friday...The overall weather pattern heading into the first full week of May can be described as unsettled with no real significant warm up or impactful weather. Unsurprisingly, the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors near normal temperatures and leans towards above normal rainfall. For reference, typical highs for North Country in early May are in the low to mid 60s, while average overnight lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s. The upper level pattern features a positively tilted omega block sandwiched between an anomalously deep trough across the Rockies/northern Great Plains and another trough over eastern Quebec/Newfoundland. H5 height anomalies favor a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, as positive H5 height anomalies give way to near normal values. Depending on the timing of the associated surface cold front, ingredients may exist for a few stronger storms. Taking a first look at ensemble guidance probabilities, it does look like the better chance for organized convection is across our southwestern zones, with more garden variety thunderstorms towards Vermont and the Champlain Valley. This makes sense from a synoptic perspective as the aforementioned positively tilted omega block may not be that easy to dislodge. As a result, our region only gets a piece of weak shortwave energy that peels off from the base of the northern Great Plains upper low and deamplifies as it tracks towards southern Ontario/Quebec. In simple terms, our region gets a glancing blow in terms of dynamical forcing and as a result, the odds for any stronger convective storms greatly diminish. While we are still 4 days away, model trends are favoring an unsettled but benign pattern for North Country in the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this afternoon, and are expected for most of the forecast period. Dry conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals, with increasing high clouds overnight. A stray shower cannot be ruled out across KMSS or KSLK as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, with some MVFR ceilings possible as well but there is a lot of uncertainty with any flight category reductions. Winds will be relatively light throughout the forecast period, generally less than 10 knots variable, becoming more southerly through the forecast period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Kremer/Taber SHORT TERM...Chai LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Kremer