####018004787#### FXUS63 KOAX 032306 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 606 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight hours with a 5 to 10% chance of damaging hail and wind. - There is a chance of severe thunderstorms (15 to 30 percent chance) Monday afternoon and evening. - Additional chances for showers and storms possible through the end of the week, but no organized threat for severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This afternoon - Saturday: There are still some high clouds around the area this afternoon, causing some echos to show up on radar, but we're not seeing anything reach the ground. Winds are out of the southeast and temperatures are in the upper 60s to around 70 here around 2 PM, and should rise into the low 70s for highs this afternoon. We're watching a cold front associated with a low pressure system out over the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon which will move through overnight tonight. This will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through around 10 PM to 6 AM. We are under a marginal risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The environment out ahead of the cold front does have up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE indicating enough instability for thunderstorms, and combined with 50-60 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear indicates a threat of up to quarter-size hail and damaging winds. This line should move through fairly quickly, but we could see up to an inch or more of rain in places. Once the main line moves through, expect a post-frontal rain shield to trail the main line, tapering off an hour or two later. Low clouds will hang around through the morning on Saturday, with the sun coming out Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs only in the low-to-mid 60s with breezy winds out of the north gusting to 25 mph in the morning, dropping off during the afternoon. Sunday-Monday: Another upper-level trough will start to dig into the Four- Corners region on Sunday, approaching our area. Sunday should be a fairly nice day with light winds in the morning becoming southeasterly and starting to increase during the afternoon ahead of the approaching system. Temperatures will stay on the cooler side with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. We'll see the surface low start to develop on the lee side of the Rockies Sunday evening with a surge of moisture lifting north out of the Gulf of Mexico associated with the Low-Level Jet across central and eastern Nebraska. We probably won't see precipitation start Sunday night, but we'll see increasing clouds with chances for rain starting Monday morning. We'll want to watch Monday evening for potential severe weather as the main upper-level wave pushes the dry-line across our area. This is our best opportunity for severe weather, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. There is some possibility that stronger storms developing to our south cut off a lot of our moisture which could limit our severe potential, as the greater severe weather threat does appear to be to our south. We do still want to monitor this time frame, though. Storms do appear likely to be out of our area by Tuesday morning. Tuesday-Thursday: No other notable severe weather risks to mention through the rest of the forecast. We do see a shortwave move through Tuesday night that could bring another round of more modest storms through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Through the end of the week we see a broad trough set up across much of the central CONUS with a fairly baroclinic pattern that could bring additional low chances for showers and storms, but no organized threat for severe weather. High temperatures stay in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through eastern NE tonight in tandem with a cold front. The storms should reach KOFK by around 04z, and KOMA and KLNK by about 06z. Ceilings will lower to MVFR (FL010-025) with the arrival of the precipitation, and visibilities could briefly be reduced to 3-5SM. Southeast winds ahead of the front will switch to northwest at 15-18 kt with gusts of 23-28 kt behind the front. A return to VFR conditions is forecast by late morning or early afternoon on Saturday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Mead ####018005827#### FXUS63 KSGF 032307 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast and south central MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight. - Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain. - Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast. Rainfall during this period may be between 1 and 3 inches which may lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure over northern Missouri was helping to make for a nice day across the region though cloud cover remained across the region. A few showers or isolated storms were lingering across portions of south central Missouri where a lingering frontal boundary from an earlier front remained. This activity may continue through early evening but will dissipate quickly near and after dark. No severe weather is expected with this activity. A storm system associated with a cold front will approach the region overnight into Saturday morning. This frontal boundary will begin to push into far southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks around sunrise Saturday morning. the region is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather with this system. Expectations are that the line of strong to severe storms will move into the region with a potential weakening trend as low level and upper level winds will be rather weak, though instability looks to be from 1000-2500 j/kg thanks to a warm airmass and southerly winds. However, hail to quarters in size and damaging winds will be possible. some additional storms may develop and linger into the afternoon and evening but should transition to showers during the evening. Rainfall will also be a concern with wet antecedent conditions leading to potential local flooding. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A rather active pattern remains in the forecast for the next week with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and rainfall through the end of next week. Sunday: In the wake of the storms on Saturday, a surface/middle level shortwave or low will slide north across the southern plains and over the region. this will bring additional showers and storms to the region, though current indication suggest that this period would be below severe limits. The continued rain chances may lead to flooding concerns which will be the theme for the next 7 days. Monday - Tuesday: A strongly negatively tilted upper trough will move across the plains and swing a strongly forecast cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. The Ozarks will be in the warm sector ahead of this system with some models indicating as much as 3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE in advance of the front with mid level (40-50kt) and upper level jet support. The combination of instability and shear will bring the chance for severe weather to the region as a result through Tuesday morning. Once storms push through the region, a warm front will quickly lift back to the north through the Ozarks as low pressure develops in the plains. Wednesday- Friday: Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues the potential for additional severe storms for the middle of next week. The indications for Thursday and Friday are rather uncertain as the multiple rounds of storms a changing upper level pattern limits rain chances. With the multiple days where rain is possible wide spread 1 to 3 inch rain amounts will be possible through the forecast period. This may lead to at least localized flooding for areas that have already seen ample rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Clouds will continue to thin at the start of the TAF period. Areas of fog will likely develop again late tonight across portions of south-central Missouri, so have added reduced visibilities to the BBG TAF after 10Z. A line of showers and thunderstorms across Kansas is expected to weaken as it moves east into Missouri in the early morning hours, though will reintensify in the afternoon and may impact the SGF and BBG sites in particular. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with local higher amounts of rainfall through the period. Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A warm airmass will be in place across the region for the middle of next week. This may allow overnight low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday nights to remain warm and approach record warm minimum temperatures. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Didio HYDROLOGY...Hatch CLIMATE...Hatch ####018007496#### FXUS61 KRNK 032307 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 707 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will bring increasing clouds and rain chances to our area beginning this afternoon and evening. Widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. Temperatures will be lower this weekend than they have been, before switching back to warmer weather with daily showers and thunderstorms possible for the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 645 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and isolated t-storms through this evening. 2. Cooler easterly flow will over much of the area tomorrow will keep temperatures below normal. 3. Widespread moderate showers tomorrow with some scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Thicker and more widespread cloud cover marches east this evening, as well as a front. As the sun sets, clear skies are also waning. Scattered, mostly single-cellular showers have become more frequent since this afternoon. An occasional lightning strike has been noted close to the proximity of what amounts to a backdoor front in the I-64 corridor in WV. Expect isolated thunder to continue during the overnight, and then on Saturday to become more common, especially east of the Blue Ridge where it will be free of the influence of a wedge. With the encroaching cloud shield, prevailing winds have begun a turn to the northwest, which will not last long as the atmospheric setup is changing quickly. From the previous discussion... Vertically stacked low pressure was moving through southern Ontario this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure was on its way off the eastern seaboard as a short wave trough makes its way towards the TN Valley. Warm air advection along with orographic lift and marginal instability was triggering scattered showers so far this afternoon, mainly over the southern Blue Ridge. An area of convection closer to a warm front turned backdoor front in draped over the Greenbrier Valley was more conducive to thunderstorms, but lightning had not developed as of this writing. Increasing moisture on southerly winds will keep scattered showers around as well as isolated thunderstorms through this evening. After dark, winds come around to the east over eastern and northern portions of the forecast area. This will stabilize the air mass in these areas and as ceilings and visibilities lower, the precipitation will take on more stratiform light rain/drizzle/fog qualities. This will keep thunder from being an issue throughout the day tomorrow where the wedge is strongest. QPF amounts also look relatively light through the tonight and into the early morning hours. After daybreak, additional frontogenetic forcing and positive vorticity advection will deliver widespread moderate rain with categorical to definite PoPs throughout the day and evening, with some locations getting around an inch by tomorrow night. There may be some breaks in the precipitation, but these are difficult to pinpoint within this messy set up. Tonight, lows will range from the mid 50s to low 60s for most, with cooler temperatures for the mountains and as you move northeast through the forecast area. Easterly flow along with the precipitation and clouds will keep highs tomorrow in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the area. Northern NC may see slightly warmer temperatures as it will be less under the influence of the wedge of cooler air. Confidence in the near term is moderate, but lower for showers and thunderstorm timing. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. 2) Temperatures will slowly warm as the new week begins. The easterly flow should shift around to the south during Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic throughout this forecast period. A cold front will try to move eastward north of the Appalachian Mountains on Monday, but the primary area of low pressure should stay well to the north in Canada. As a result, this cold front will be unsuccessful in changing the air mass and may only nudge the stalled frontal boundary slightly southward. Because of this prolonged period of unsettled weather, chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur each day. The highest chance may come during Monday afternoon when the cold front to the north provides extra dynamical lift in the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures should slowly trend upward as the flow becomes more southerly to increase warm air advection despite the ongoing chances of rain and the considerable cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. 2) Temperatures will head warmer by the middle of the week. A stalled frontal boundary should still linger across the Mid Atlantic through the middle of the week. Several weak waves of low pressure will continue to track eastward along this boundary to continue a daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, ridging aloft and a southwest flow at the surface should increase warm air advection to push temperatures higher by Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will approach the Appalachian Mountains sometime during late Thursday into Friday, which could spark a higher chance of convection. The models continue to struggle with depicting when this prolonged period of unsettled weather will come to an end beyond this point. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 PM EDT Friday... VFR clouds are on the increase with scattered SHRA this evening. Expect some isolated TSRA at times this evening, with best chances around and north of the I-64 corridor. Ceilings will transition to MVFR as moisture fills in through the lower levels of the atmosphere and showers become more common. Ceilings and visibilities drop to LIFR/IFR generally after 08Z, and will likely stay there through Saturday and beyond as an ill-defined frontal boundary remains over the region. South southwesterly winds of 5-10 kts will become lighter and initially variable tonight. A backdoor cold front will introduce an easterly component to the wind after midnight. Expect winds to remain largely out of the east 5-10 kt for Saturday. Confidence in the above scenario is moderate. Extended Aviation Outlook... SHRA/TSRA with periods of DZ, BR, and MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions continue after 18Z Sunday. More diurnally driven -SHRA/TSRA are expected Monday through Wednesday. This will bring periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be SSW and gusty at times. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/SH NEAR TERM...SH/VFJ SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...SH/VFJ ####018005129#### FXUS61 KILN 032308 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 708 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend along with muggy conditions. Additional thunderstorms are possible into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Light shower activity may continue late this afternoon/early this evening in the unsettled and weakly unstable environment across the Ohio Valley. While a few thunderstorms cannot completely be ruled out prior to sunset, persistent cloud cover and light rain earlier today has kept instability to a minimum. For the overnight, a weak cold front will attempt to drop in the from the north before stalling over northern Ohio. At most, only expecting a few degree temperature drop as some northeasterly flow tries to develop. However, winds could end up mainly remaining light and variable overnight since weak pressure gradient stays over the region. Some shower chances persist tonight and forecast lows are generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weak stalled front is expected to lift north of the area on Saturday. Warm, humid conditions will be in place as southerly flow redevelops leading to highs near 80 during the afternoon. Instability should accompany the muggy conditions Saturday afternoon/evening bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. If a weak shortwave does end up moving through on Saturday, fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage could develop. Severe chances remain low since shear is weak and DCAPE remains moderate to low in the moist, saturated sounding. Locally heavy downpours are likely since PWATs will be high. Additionally, brief gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms in the this summer-like setup. Shower/storm chances continue on Saturday night due to the possible development of an upper level shortwave and the approach of a cold front to the northwest. Brief, locally heavy rain remains the biggest threat since instability and shear are weak. Southwesterly winds persist along with warm and muggy conditions. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A wet period is indicated as persistent moisture advection couples with waves of low pressure. Relatively slow moving systems will allow showers to linger, with brief dry interludes separating batches of showers. Precipitable water remaining above an inch will be feeding the showers. For Sunday, the first wave of low pressure will be tracking to the Great Lakes, resulting in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. Much the same can be expected for Monday, though most showers may shift south, closer to a disturbance over the Southern Appalachians. A relative lull in precipitation is forecast for Tuesday as high pressure builds in between disturbances. Two more potent waves of low pressure could impact the region on Wednesday and Thursday. There should be a better chance for severe thunderstorms as stronger winds enhance storm strength and structure. Showers and thunderstorms may linger on Friday as another disturbance crosses the Appalachians. Temperatures are likely to stay above normal through the long term, with some fluctuation with respect to advection around weather systems. Highs will generally be in the mid 70s to low 80s Sunday through Thursday, before readings slip to the upper 60s to mid 70s on Friday under a modest decrease in geopotential heights. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period, but some brief MVFR ceilings or visibilities will be possible as some rain showers continue to impact the area. There will be a gradual diminishing trend in shower coverage over the next few hours, with light winds settling into an ENE direction. By morning, ceilings are expected to lower to the MVFR range, with most TAF sites expected to go below 2kft. Some patchy MVFR visibilities are also possible in the early morning hours, but the thick cloud cover makes this somewhat uncertain. Some additional showers will be possible in the morning, though the chances are on the lower side, and this is not included in the TAFs. However, showers will become more likely again tomorrow afternoon, so all TAF sites have VCSH and then -SHRA. Thunderstorms are not out of the question either. Prevailing ceilings will lift to VFR by this time, with southeasterly flow of 10 knots or less. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day from Sunday through Wednesday. MVFR conditions are possible Sunday morning and Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hatzos ####018010605#### FXUS61 KAKQ 032309 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 709 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes south and west of the area tonight. On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Dropping temperatures expected this afternoon behind a backdoor cold front. - On and off showers expected tonight through Saturday with the highest coverage inland. - Becoming dreary for all areas Saturday with extensive low-level cloud cover. Sfc obs, satellite, and radar data show the backdoor cold front quickly marching W/SW across the area. Behind the front, temps are falling quickly. It's in the 50s on the VA/MD Eastern Shore and in the 60s across Hampton Roads northwards to the Northern Neck. Ahead of the front (over the Piedmont), temps have risen into the mid and upper 80s. Thus, we are currently seeing a very impressive temperature gradient over the area (55 at Ocean City/OXB vs 87 at South Hill/AVC). Extensive low-level clouds are also slowly pushing inland from the ocean and Chesapeake Bay. Expect the front to continue advancing westward for the remainder of this afternoon. A few CAMs show a few pop-up showers or storms developing along the front given building instability (SPC mesoanalysis showing ~500-1000 J/kg across the Piedmont). Will continue a 20% PoP for these areas through the afternoon. Additional shower chances are expected overnight, with the highest coverage expected over the nrn half of the area. Not expecting any thunder tonight. Some patchy fog may also move onshore across SE VA and NE NC, but think visibilities will not get too low given the elevated winds. Lows tonight will be chillier than the previous few nights and around 50 on the MD Eastern Shore to the mid-upper 50s for the rest of the area (lower 60s down along the Albemarle Sound). The front will be well W/SW of the area by tonight into Saturday. Sfc high pressure will be left in its wake across New England. This will wedge a cool/moist low-level airmass over the entire area for the day Saturday. This will also keep cloudy conditions in place. The best forcing/lift and moisture remains across the W, so expecting the highest coverage Saturday mainly W of I-95. Despite this, it will tend to remain unpleasant even towards the coast w/ onshore flow and patchy drizzle. Continue to trend highs lower with temps struggling to reach 60 across the N, with mid 60s-low 70s elsewhere. There is a chance that far SW portions of the CWA (e.g., Northampton/Bertie Counties in NC) reach the upper 70s, but this may even be overdone. These values are still below NBM (especially S). On and off "showery" rainfall continues overnight Saturday with lows in the 50s N to 60s S. QPF through tomorrow averages from up to 0.50" across the W, 0.1-0.4" central, and 0.00" to a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday. - More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide. The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s and 80s and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing with rather weak shear. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages... - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle to end of next week. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak shortwaves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. These convective complexes may also move through the region from the NW, but these features are notoriously hard to predict. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7-7.5 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. Instability will certainly not be a limiting factor as temps warm into the 80s and 90s every day. At this time, the synoptic pattern for severe looks most favorable Thursday with an approaching trough and the most robust CAPE. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. We continue to have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... Degraded flight conditions are expected through most of the 03/18z TAF period as a backdoor cold front pushes further inland. As of 18z, IFR CIGs (bases ~800 ft) have moved into ORF and PHF. MVFR CIGs are noted at SBY, with VFR at RIC. Expect these IFR CIGs to persist along the coast through the period. Elsewhere, expect SBY and ECG to drop to IFR CIGs over the next few hrs, with RIC holding off until this evening. CIGs may then drop further to LIFR for a time tonight (best chances at ORF and ECG). Additionally, there may be VSBY reductions below 3 SM due to BR or FG. This part of the forecast is more uncertain so have not gone lower than 3 SM in the TAFs at this time. In terms of precipitation, most stay dry this aftn (a very brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out at RIC), before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday. Areas of drizzle are also possible. Winds have turned to the E behind the front at all TAF sites and E winds 10 should avg ~10 kt overnight into Saturday. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 710 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night. - Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday. - Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday. Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters). Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time. Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Have issues a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and approach minor flood levels later on Saturday. Tidal departures will increase overnight due to winds persisting onshore from the E or ENE. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...AM/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...LKB/RMM/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...