####018005196#### FXUS63 KGRB 032312 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 612 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday evening, with additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. - A few rivers will remain at or reach bankfull stage into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Saturday Deep mixing allowed temperatures to soar into the middle 60s to lower 70s, caused winds to gust to 25 to 35 mph over far N WI, and resulted in pockets of low relative humidity in the sandy soil regions of northern and central WI this afternoon. Mostly clear skies will give way to a gradual increase in mid and high level clouds overnight, but dry conditions will prevail. Considered the possibility of patchy fog overnight, but a well- mixed air mass, increasing boundary layer winds overnight and shorter spring night argued against any mention at this time. Look for low temperatures to drop into the 40s. On Saturday, a dry start to the day will give way to a band of light to moderate showers along and ahead of a cold frontal passage. The showers will be aided by a weak surface wave lifting northeast along the front, plus upper divergence in the RRQ of a 110 kt jet streak and weak short-wave energy. There is a general consensus for a narrow ribbon of weak instability (SBCAPE 200-400 j/kg) developing over the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas in the afternoon, so have kept a mention of a few thunderstorms there. Showers should arrive in NC/C WI mid to late morning, and Fox Valley/lakeshore early to mid afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s west and near Lake Michigan, to 65 to 70 across inland areas of NE/EC WI. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Friday Saturday evening/night...Rain and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing across far eastern WI into Saturday evening as a cold front and mid-level shortwave tracks over the area. Not anticipating for these storms to be strong or severe as the couple hundred J/kg of instability over the area during the afternoon will rapidly decrease into the evening. The showers and storms will exit the state by 06z Sunday. Sunday through Monday...High pressure and upper-level ridging moves over the area during this time period, leaving dry weather and mostly sunny skies across the forecast area. Temperatures will rise above normal for both days with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s inland, and upper 50s to low 60s along the lakeshore. Slightly elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday as afternoon RH values will be in the 30s and southeast winds may gust to 20 to 25 mph. Locations across the north would be of greatest concern where green up has not fully occurred. Rest of the extended...Models are still in agreement with an upper- level trough developing over the Northern Plains Monday into Tuesday. This will leave the forecast area in the southerly flow ahead of the trough, allowing southern stream energy and moisture to increase and lift into the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys. Although there are still some timing and placement differences, especially when the precip will end, Tuesday into Tuesday evening appears to be the best timing for widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms. Despite being in the warm sector, the timing of the precip may hinder severe potential across the forecast area and keep it confined south of the area. Will continue to monitor as there is still plenty of time for the details to be ironed out over the coming days. Details for the remainder of the extended become very messy, but models agree with additional chances for precip at times through the rest of next work week. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Expect VFR conditions to prevail through midday Saturday, with patchy mid/high clouds expected into early Saturday. Thickening and lowering clouds are expected in NC/C WI as showers arrive toward midday and C/NE WI Saturday afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR Saturday afternoon as the showers arrive. Considered the possibility of patchy fog tonight, but the air mass was well mixed this afternoon (warm temps and low dew points leading to large dew point depressions) and boundary layer winds will be increasing to 20 to 25 kts late tonight. Models are hinting at some low clouds coming off Lake Michigan (near MTW) Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to mention a ceiling at this time. Gusty west winds will drop off quickly this evening, become light SE overnight, then moderate SE-S later Saturday morning and SW Saturday afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch/Kruk AVIATION.......Kurimski ####018006144#### FXUS64 KEPZ 032312 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 512 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Quiet weather conditions are expected through the end of the period. The winds will become breezy to windy Sunday and continue on into Monday. The temperatures will remain at and above the normal for most of the area though the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently, the winds are light to low-end breezy with sunny skies and the temperatures on the warm side. For tonight, conditions will be quiet with the winds becoming light and variable. The skies will increase in cloudiness as a weak shortwave moves on by from far Southwest. Due to this, the low temperatures on Saturday morning will be above the normal. For Saturday, another quiet day will be in store. The winds will be similar to that of today; however, there might just be a few passing clouds due to the gradual passage of the shortwave. The high temperatures in the afternoon will be on the warm side. By Sunday, a trough will dig across the Intermountain West, which will develop a lee cyclone across eastern Wyoming. Even though this is not a great area to develop windy conditions, a 700mb jet stream will move across areas north of the El Paso and Hudspeth counties and with some gradient in place, the winds will become breezy to windy. As of now, the winds look to be below the criteria. Conditions will be dry; thus, fire weather conditions will be of concerns by then. For the rest of the period, the winds will be breezy to at times windy as we stay under a dry westerly flow aloft. There will be a series of disturbances passing to our north while rotating across a positively tilted longwave trough, that will not bring any precipitation to our area. Monday will be the day with the strongest winds for the work week with fire weather conditions continuing on that day. The high temperatures for El Paso will be in upper 80s and lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Skies generally SKC-FEW250 overnight, becoming SCT250 Saturday morning. Surface winds 230-260 at 06-10 knots overnight, increasing to 220-250 at 10-15 knots again tomorrow afternoon. Peak gusts of 30 knots at KTCS midday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 For today and Saturday, conditions will be quiet with the winds light to breezy. The min RHs will be in the single digits except for in the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will continue for the start of next week with the winds becoming breezy to windy. Due to this, fire weather conditions on Sunday will be critical to extreme across Southwest and South-Central Mexico. For Monday,strong winds will move across West Texas with critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected. The min RHs will continue to be in the single digits by then. For the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be dry with breezy winds and above normal temperatures. Fire weather concerns by then will be near to critical to critical. The min RHs on Saturday will be below 10% across much of area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be between 10 and 20%. The min RHs on Sunday will decrease slightly across the area, but will significantly decrease across the Sacramento Mountains by around 5%. The ventilation rates will be mostly excellent this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 85 52 86 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 55 88 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 42 64 40 63 / 0 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 53 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 51 86 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 83 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 89 52 89 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 53 91 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 90 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 74 42 75 / 0 10 10 0 Mescalero 45 75 44 74 / 0 10 10 0 Timberon 43 73 40 73 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 46 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 50 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 84 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 83 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt