####018004050#### FXUS62 KCHS 032320 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Radar imagery shows that the sea breeze has just about cleared the forecast area and only weak convection has developed along the periphery of the forecast area over the last few hours. Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing. Model guidance favors far interior southeast Georgia for overnight convection, mainly Tattnall, Evans, Candler, Bulloch, Screven, and Jenkins counties. This make sense as this area will feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.5" precipitable water values) will be present there. We don't anticipate the coverage will be too high, mainly in the isolated to scattered range. Conditions will not be nearly as conducive for fog development tonight, though some patchy fog will be possible across the inland tier. Lows will be mild, with mid to upper 60s across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern coastline, while across the southeastern states a series of shortwave troughs ripple through. At the surface high pressure will extend into the region from the east. Between the shortwave energy aloft and the afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. While a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat will be low. Shear values are not impressive and there appears to be model disagreements on how much instability will be in place. High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are forecast Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight low temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal, generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack of any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm activity. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s by Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below advisory levels, temperatures could approach record levels on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Sunday. There are no significant fog or stratus concerns at the terminals overnight, though some guidance would suggest that low ceilings could spread into KCHS right around sunrise. Given the amount of mid and high level clouds around tonight, we don't think this low stratus is too likely, so we have only carried a few clouds at around 500 ft. Saturday shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday. && .MARINE... Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds will average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across the local marine waters through the period, yielding rather benign conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out of the southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BSH MARINE... ####018007889#### FXUS62 KMHX 032320 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 715 PM Friday... Latest surface analysis shows previously mentioned backdoor cold front beginning to stall along our northern tier this evening with low stratus and patchy fog beginning to encroach across the NOBX and our NE'rn zones this evening. General expectation is for this low stratus to continue to push SW'wards, eventually encompassing the entire area tonight with some patchy fog also possible; mainly along areas east of Hwy 17 where easterly onshore flow will trap low level moisture below a low level inversion this evening. Still think we remain dry overall as lows get into the low to mid 60s. Prev Disc...Back door cold front is making its way through NE portions of the CWA, winds shifting to become easterly behind it. Isallobaric winds are trailing behind this cold front. Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front, with gusts of 20-25kts observed to our north. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting. With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening. The backdoor front stalls out over the CWA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s. Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 715 PM Friday... Mainly VFR ceilings and vis across ENC with the lone exception being across the NOBX and far NE'rn zones where low stratus and patchy fog have begun to advect SW'wards across the area behind a stalling cold front resulting in a mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings. Current forecast has this low stratus continuing to march SW'wards eventually impacting EWN and OAJ first between 06-08Z and then PGV/ISO next around 8-10Z. As a result, MVFR ceilings are forecast across all terminals for a brief time between 05-08Z followed quickly by IFR/LIFR ceilings. In addition to this, with low level E'rly flow advecting inland, some patchy fog is likely as well primarily east of Hwy 17 across EWN/OAJ terminals though ISO could see a brief period of lower vis early Sat morning as well. This fog threat is fairly conditional and more likely due to low stratus developing into fog overnight but did want to include reduced vis in the forecast given the fairly strong signal across the HI-Res guidance. Through tonight winds generally remain light and variable. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings will linger into the early afternoon with IFR ceilings lifting from west to east between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to include this in the TAF's. LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub- VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 340 PM Friday...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts. Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras. Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/RCF MARINE...SGK/RJ ####018005311#### FXUS63 KFSD 032320 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 620 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain returns late this afternoon/evening and continues through Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts between a quarter to up to a half an inch are expected. Ponding on roads along with minor stream and river flooding are again possible. - Dry through the weekend with temperatures at or just below normal for this time of year. - A strong low pressure system looks to bring renewed storm chances and moderate to heavy rain on Monday but details remain uncertain as of now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Look for a quiet start to the day before a cold front/inverted surface trough encroaches on the area by late afternoon/evening. Although skies are clear very early this morning, clouds will increase during the day as the system approaches. Warm air advection overspreading the region will allow 850 temperatures to climb to 8- 10 degrees C over the southeastern CWA, and this will result in highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s over that area. Back to the west where clouds will be increasing and warm air advection is less pronounced on the back side of the inverted trough, highs will only reach the upper 50s to near 60 from east central SD back into south central SD. By late afternoon and early evening, a shortwave lifts into the area in a southwesterly upper level flow, as the inverted trough/frontal boundary begins to push to the east. Models indicate strong mid/low level frontogenesis developing through central SD during this time frame - with upper level lift increasing as a jet streak streams from west/central SD into MN. With that, a band of rain will develop in our far west around 22Z, then move eastward across the CWA during the overnight period. Models indicate any significant instability remaining bottled up over NE, so precipitation should be primarily in the form of rain, with only a low chance of isolated lightning strikes. Latest guidance would suggest rainfall amounts of a quarter to half an inch across the area through early Saturday morning. The majority of the CAMs have the band of rain to the east of our CWA by 12Z on Saturday morning. With the departure of this system, we look on track for a dry weekend as surface high pressure settles into the Northern Plains. The 850 mb thermal trough drops across the area on Saturday, and with cold air advection highs will fall back to the lower to mid 60s. By Sunday the surface ridge shifts into the Mississippi Valley, and in a returning southerly flow, temperatures will warm into the the mid and upper 60s. Our next significant chance of rain comes into the forecast for the beginning of next week. Models continue to indicate a strong upper level low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Northern/Central Plains by Monday. Still seeing model differences with regard to the evolution of this low, with the GFS/Canadian swinging the low into the Central Plains initially, then into the Northern Plains by Tuesday. The ECMWF offers a more northerly solution, taking the low directly into the Northern Plains on Monday - so there does remain some uncertainty in the details. While there will be the potential for thunderstorms with the system, confidence in severe chances is low. Both the GEFS/GEPS ensembles indicate moderate probabilities (40- 50%) of CAPE exceeding 1000 J/KG on Monday afternoon, though the ENS ensembles indicate only a 10-20% - again a reflection of differences in how the system evolves. As mentioned in the previous discussion, CIPS analogs do have low probabilities of severe storms in our area - the higher potential definitely remains to the south of our area - through the Central and Southern Plains. What does look more certain is the potential for at least moderate rain, with ensembles showing a 80-90% probability of at least a quarter inch of rain for the period Monday into Tuesday - and even a 40-50% probability of receiving at least a half an inch during the same time frame. Models indicate the upper level low remaining stagnant and rotating over the Northern Plains, albeit weakening, through the middle and end of next week. This will keep at least some chance of showers over our area through the period. Temperatures look to be just either side of normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions with scattered sprinkles continue this evening. Gradually we'll see the arrival of rain after dark, moving from west to east throughout the Tri-State area into the pre-dawn hours. Ceilings may fall to MVFR levels with visibility dropping towards 3SM at times. MVFR ceilings may linger through Saturday morning as breezy northwest winds prevail. Skies may break into a scattered VFR CU field in the afternoon. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Dux ####018003118#### FXUS64 KOHX 032321 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Middle TN. The threat will mainly be just to the south and east of Nashville through 03z. IFR/LIFR conditions in any thunderstorms with heavy rain, low vis, and low cigs. Things dry out after 03z and there is a slight chance for light showers overnight. Scattered activity will develop again tomorrow after 16z but should be less widespread than today. Light southerly winds under 6 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 82 65 85 / 40 70 50 70 Clarksville 64 80 65 82 / 40 50 40 70 Crossville 61 74 60 78 / 60 80 50 80 Columbia 64 80 63 84 / 60 70 50 80 Cookeville 63 76 62 80 / 60 80 50 80 Jamestown 61 76 60 80 / 60 80 50 80 Lawrenceburg 64 79 63 82 / 60 70 50 80 Murfreesboro 64 79 63 84 / 50 70 50 80 Waverly 64 80 64 83 / 50 50 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Mueller ####018004848#### FXUS64 KLUB 032321 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s. Thus, there is a strong differential heating boundary present across the area today and will be a potential location for additional storm development. As of 2 PM CDT, the sharpening dryline is present along a line from Seminole to Sundown to Muleshoe and bending westward into New Mexico as lee cyclogenesis strengthens in east southeast Colorado. Dewpoints east of the dryline range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Satellite imagery shows low level moisture advecting northward with the southeast surface winds. Thunderstorms (a few severe) have already begun to develop east of Big Spring and just south of I-20. In addition, towering cumulus clouds are beginning to develop along the dryline across the South Plains. Significant instability is present east of dryline this afternoon with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000+ J/kg and modest effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots, which is capable of support strong to severe supercells. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support very large hail up to baseball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. A tornado or two is possible, with the best environment across the Rolling Plains where the differential heating boundary is present with abundant low level moisture and east southeast low level mean flow. A few storm splits may be possible with the right movers headed southeast, potentially along the aforementioned pre-existing boundary. These right moving storms would pose the greatest threat for a tornado, especially this evening as low level shear increases. Most storms will be moving east northeast this afternoon and evening with slower storm motions around 10 to 20 mph, which could pose a localized flash flooding threat. Thunderstorms should move east out of the forecast area late this evening before Midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The severe weather threat will continue into Saturday. Winds behind a cold front will switch to generally out of the east will bring sufficient Gulf moisture to the area. Instability may take some time to develop given stubborn morning cloud cover, however it is expected to reach similar magnitudes as today, favoring the southern South and Rolling Plains. While forcing is not overly impressive, an upper shortwave should be more than enough to trigger potentially severe storms during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain/flooding. While tornadoes are unlikely, they cannot be completely be ruled out. Much of the precipitation should move out of the forecast area by midnight. The active weather seen over the past several days will finally begin to quiet down on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds over the region. A fast moving upper trough on Monday brings a brief return of shower and thunderstorm chances. GFS/NAM timing (moving precipitation out of the area by late-morning) is generally favored at this time given the relatively stronger steering flow. As such, any severe weather threat would be limited. A mostly zonal flow pattern aloft and westerly surface winds look to allow for warm and dry conditions to prevail through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has cleared PVW but is still in the vicinity at LBB and CDS. Storms will push east of LBB over the next 1-2 hour but will be possible at CDS through at least 04Z. At current the main hazards will be wind gusts to 60 knots and hail over 2 inches. IFR CIGs have sneaked in to PVW over the past half hour but is expected to increase VFR within the next 1-2 hours. CIGs will lower to at least MVFR shortly after 12Z tomorrow morning at all terminals and remain through most of the day tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms are also likely at all terminals towards the end of this TAF cycle. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...51 ####018004750#### FXUS64 KLCH 032321 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Area radar this afternoon shows scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading across the region from the west. Most of today's precip has fallen across SE TX and SW LA, with area mesonet stations showing around 0.75-2.00" of rain has fallen in these regions. CAMs have largely handled today's system poorly however, the HRRR seems to have gotten a better handle on it over the last couple of runs and continues to show most of this activity ending between 6 and 8 PM this evening. Overnight, dry weather is expected along with another round of patchy fog, especially across those areas that saw a good bit of rain today. Moving into the weekend, rain chances continue. Tomorrow, another shortwave is expected to pass overhead and initialize scattered showers by the late morning hours. POPs tomorrow are only in the 20-40% range, with better chances north of I-10, and overall coverage should be much less than the last couple of days. Rain chances then ramp up again for the second half of the weekend as a second, more robust, shortwave slides overhead and passes a bit further to the south that Saturday's shortwave. This may bring a similar set up to today's convection, with elevated rain chances in the 40-60% range on tap area-wide. Fortunately, no severe weather is anticipated this weekend however, we will have to keep an eye on the flooding risk as much of the forecast area has already received significant rainfall over the last couple of days. Temperature wise, we will see near seasonal daytime highs over the weekend, warming into the low to mid 80s area-wide both days. Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s along and south of I-10. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 As we head into the work week small rain chances continue for Monday followed by a reprieve from the wet weather through the mid-week. POPs on Monday are only around 15-30% at best, with mainly isolated afternoon activity anticipated. Tuesday through Thursday a drier pattern is expected as a weak midlevel ridge builds over the Gulf Coast and offers a bit of drier air aloft to keep showers at bay. Finally by Friday we may see a return of shower activity as some long range models are now pointing to a weak frontal passage. This is still a ways out however, and changes to the progression of this front are likely. Temperature wise next week will bring a gradual warming trend with highs on Mon in the mid 80s warming into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday and into the upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday and beyond. Overnight, lows in the low to mid 70s can be expected. 17 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A few showers or storms will be possible until sunset mainly for terminals along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, starting out with VFR conditions. Once again expecting low clouds and patchy fog to form around 04/06z and persist into the overnight with mainly MVFR conditions, although some brief IFR conditions can be ruled out. Patchy fog and low clouds will lift during the morning hours, with VFR conditions expected by 04/18z. Shower and storm activity looks to be a lot less for Saturday, and therefore, will just mention VCSH and VCTS for terminals. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this evening across the coastal waters and coastal lakes/bays. In addition, moderate onshore flow will also persist, and small craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Tonight, rain will end however, fog is expected to develop closer to sunrise especially along and near the coastline. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 65 85 67 82 / 10 40 20 60 LCH 69 83 70 83 / 10 30 10 40 LFT 70 83 71 85 / 10 20 10 30 BPT 71 83 72 83 / 20 30 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>032-141. TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...07 ####018007873#### FXUS64 KAMA 032322 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 622 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Morning clouds have begun to clear out, with partly cloudy skies being observed for the northern and western Panhandles, while the southeastern TX Panhandle remains cloudy. Starting to see on satellite a cumulus field trying to grow vertically in eastern New Mexico near Tucumcari, and to a lesser extent the Texas Panhandle, suggesting some instability that is still inhibited by a cap. With much of the afternoon left, it's becoming more plausible that the cap could be breached in eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles and at least a few thunderstorms will be able to develop later as the dryline mixes east. If so, MLCAPE values between 1000- 2000 J/kg are possible in the western Panhandles along with 30-40 kts effective shear, suggesting any thunderstorm will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can't be ruled out in the western Panhandles later in the afternoon through the early evening, but seems unlikely at this time. It's possible that any thunderstorm that can develop would begin to weaken as it moves into a more stable airmass in the central Texas Panhandle this evening. There is a signal that additional thunderstorms will be able to develop in the Oklahoma Panhandle this evening but the signal is rather weak among the CAMs. Tonight, a squall line is expected to develop in western Kansas along a cold front. Current expectation is that it will produce an outflow boundary that advances ahead and chokes off the access to unstable air and weakens before it reaches the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, this cold front will make its way through the Panhandles tonight, and it's possible that a moderately strong and moist southerly LLJ will ascend above the cold front and help develop showers and thunderstorms. If so, there may be enough elevated instability for the threat of overnight large hail. With that said, the CAMs are not at all excited about the potential for rain tonight while the global models are. NBM seems to be siding with the global models by giving 50-80% PoPs. Feel as though this is too aggressive right now given CAM agreement and underwhelming upper-level support, thus have decreased PoPs to generally 20-50% tonight. Tomorrow, the Panhandles will be behind the cold front and the surface winds turn from easterly to southeasterly. Clouds should once again be prevalent across the area but perhaps may break up some in the afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach western Texas in the afternoon, but it appears the better forcing for ascent and moisture will be located to the south of the Panhandles. There is a chance that some rain and embedded thunder will make its way up into the southern Texas Panhandle as a result of some more significant thunderstorm activity outside of the CWA, but for now, it doesn't look to be a widespread rain event or much of a beneficial rain event. Once again, NBM is quite aggressive with the PoPs tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Have opted to decrease the rain chances in general, especially in the northern Panhandles tomorrow evening. Still feel PoPs are still too high tomorrow night but will leave it for now. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering slight chance to chance pops Sunday morning will quickly diminish from west to east by afternoon as the upper level shortwave trof moves east of the region. Attention then turns to a much stronger upper level low pressure storm system slated to move across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by the latest short and medium range models indicates more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for most of the OK and TX Panhandles. The far eastern zones may retain just enough moisture for a long enough time frame ahead of the eastward moving dryline Monday morning into the afternoon hours to warrant a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. NBM pop values for that area look reasonable and were included in the grids. Winds may approach or exceed advisory criteria across parts of the western and central sections on Monday due to the rather steep pressure gradient. Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by passage of another cold front Wednesday night which will lead to cooler temperatures on Thursday. Medium range models and associated ensembles are in reasonable agreement and were accepted. 02 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR cigs still persist at Amarillo this afternoon, these should briefly scatter ahead of a approaching cold front. Currently ahead of a cold front the winds are ESE and gusty mainly in the 20s kt range to low 30s kt. A few thunderstorms are present in this environment ahead of the cold front with KGUY and KDHT being the more likely stations to see them on station. These storms can become severe with large hail and damaging gusty winds. The cold front is expected to arrive in the northern panhandles around midnight and then rapidly push through. This would shift the winds to the N with gusts likely increasing in strength. Low clouds of MVFR to IFR are likely to occur post passage of the cold front. For KGUY and the OK panhandle there will be a chance for thunderstorm to occur along the cold front. These thunderstorm are unlikely to persist into the TX panhandle. For Saturday afternoon the clouds will likely scatter out with VFR conditions returning. The winds will also likely weaken and cease gusting while shifting to become more easterly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Depending on how much rain falls through the weekend and where such rainfall occurs will dictate any fire weather concerns early next week. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance and rainfall forecasts, elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop across much of the western and central sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday due to strong winds and low relative humidity values along with the possibility of dry fuels and little greenup in locations that have not had much rain during the past several weeks. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 50 68 51 74 / 30 30 60 20 Beaver OK 48 70 49 75 / 50 20 40 30 Boise City OK 42 65 44 76 / 40 10 20 20 Borger TX 51 72 52 78 / 20 30 50 20 Boys Ranch TX 49 71 50 80 / 20 20 50 20 Canyon TX 49 69 51 75 / 30 30 60 20 Clarendon TX 53 68 53 72 / 30 40 60 30 Dalhart TX 44 68 45 76 / 20 10 40 20 Guymon OK 45 68 47 75 / 40 10 30 20 Hereford TX 50 69 51 77 / 20 30 60 20 Lipscomb TX 51 69 51 75 / 40 30 60 30 Pampa TX 51 68 51 74 / 20 30 60 30 Shamrock TX 54 69 53 73 / 40 40 60 40 Wellington TX 55 71 54 73 / 40 50 60 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...98