####018004485#### FXUS64 KLIX 032332 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the CWA. After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it's steadily weakened and is barely discernable on radar. Even with an embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi, there's no appreciable winds associated with it. The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating around sunset. For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the southwest and trough to the northwest. There's some hints on the 500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area. Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible. Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development of afternoon storms. Looking at same area of impact...SW MS and adjacent LA parishes. Probably won't see much, if any, convection south of I-12. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that's at or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be elevated for sensitive groups. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 All terminals currentlyy VFR, although a few are reporting scattered clouds around FL020-025. Later in the night, expect MVFR ceilings to become fairly common, but the only terminal I currently have forecast to experience IFR or lower conditions would be KMCB (LIFR) for a few hours around sunrise. Cumulus redevelopment expected around 14-15z Saturday, with MVFR ceilings possible. there's at least some threat of convective development across northwest sections by the afternoon hours. Will carry VCTS at KMCB/KBTR/KHDC from about 19z Saturday until sunset. Can't rule out remaining terminals seeing at least isolated convection Saturday afternoon, but probabilities too low to mention in the forecast at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts. Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 85 64 83 / 20 30 10 40 BTR 68 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 40 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 71 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 20 GPT 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 67 87 / 10 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...RW MARINE...ME ####018005778#### FXUS64 KSHV 032332 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 632 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection that originated across Oklahoma and North Texas late yesterday has finally departed the area as a shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the Tennessee River Valley. Farther southwest, another weak perturbation in the southwesterly flow aloft has helped to sustained showers and thunderstorms along a remnant outflow boundary across Southeast Texas and South Louisiana. Radar trends over the last couple of hours continue to show redevelopment along the northwest flank of this line in Central Texas. So far, this activity has been quickly weakening with eastward extent as it nears our Deep East Texas counties, mostly likely encountering a more stable airmass. Current thinking is the heaviest precip should remain south and southwest of the area and should dissipate by sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and weakening of large scale forcing. The latest CAMs suggest a few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this evening and tonight, mainly north of Interstate 20, but only slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast. Overnight, another complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form ahead of a cold front across Kansas and Oklahoma, which should dive southeast towards the CWA. This complex should be weakening as it moves into southeast Oklahoma around daybreak Saturday. However, renewed development and intensification is expected, especially during peak daytime heating in the afternoon. Based on the latest CAMs and short- range ensembles, current thinking coverage will mainly be scattered but will likely coverage much of the area. Given the expected coverage, I felt the NBM PoPs were too way and much of the short-term rain chances were trended toward the HREF. There should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds, especially during Saturday afternoon through early evening. Initial development in the afternoon may begin as far north as I-30 before spreading southeast across the region. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another complex of strong to severe storms will develop along the dryline in West Texas and may begin to affect the area early Sunday morning. CN && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Robust convection will likely be ongoing across the area near or shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. While the cold front is once again expected to stall in our northern zones before retreating back to the north again, a potent shortwave trough moving across Texas and Oklahoma should help sustain strong thunderstorms for much of the day Sunday. A few isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly posing a risk for damaging winds. Rain chances should diminish during the evening as the shortwave lifts northeast and forcing weakens. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in Deep East Texas south of I-20. However, current thinking is that the threat for flooding will remain isolated and localized, and it will have been a few days between rain events. However, if QPF amounts increase in future forecasts, a Flood Watch may need to be issued. Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast into next week with near daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of I-20 as deep southerly flow persists across the region. A longwave trough will move northeast across the Central and Northern Plains pushing a cold front closer to the region. This should bring a chance for more strong, possibly, severe thunderstorms to parts of the area next Tuesday and Wednesday. The extent of the severe weather threat is still highly uncertain, but the best chances appear to be north of I-20, and especially across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. Another growing concern will be the unseasonable heat. Strong southerly flow and warm air advection will result in rising temperatures despite the persistent rain chances in the forecast. From Tuesday through Thursday, there is a high chance (60 to 80 percent chance) of daytime high temperatures of 90 degrees F or greater across much of Louisiana and into portions of Southwest Arkansas and Deep East Texas. Combined with the high humidity, peak heat index values should be near or above 100 degrees F. Cooler temperatures may return by the end of the week. CN && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Clear skies will begin to fill back in once the sun sets, with IFR and LIFR CIGS anticipated across most terminals by 04/08z. Patchy fog will also be possible into the morning as winds decouple, with reduced VIS anticipated at KMLU and KELD. However, skies will clear out past 04/18z back into VFR conditions under peak afternoon heating. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 85 68 79 / 20 50 40 80 MLU 64 86 67 80 / 20 40 30 60 DEQ 64 82 65 75 / 20 40 50 90 TXK 66 84 66 78 / 20 40 40 80 ELD 63 84 65 79 / 20 50 30 70 TYR 68 82 66 78 / 10 40 60 80 GGG 67 83 67 78 / 10 50 50 80 LFK 67 84 68 80 / 10 40 40 80 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...44 ####018010364#### FXUS61 KAKQ 032333 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 733 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes south and west of the area tonight. On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Dropping temperatures expected this afternoon behind a backdoor cold front. - On and off showers expected tonight through Saturday with the highest coverage inland. - Becoming dreary for all areas Saturday with extensive low-level cloud cover. Sfc obs, satellite, and radar data show the backdoor cold front quickly marching W/SW across the area. Behind the front, temps are falling quickly. It's in the 50s on the VA/MD Eastern Shore and in the 60s across Hampton Roads northwards to the Northern Neck. Ahead of the front (over the Piedmont), temps have risen into the mid and upper 80s. Thus, we are currently seeing a very impressive temperature gradient over the area (55 at Ocean City/OXB vs 87 at South Hill/AVC). Extensive low-level clouds are also slowly pushing inland from the ocean and Chesapeake Bay. Expect the front to continue advancing westward for the remainder of this afternoon. A few CAMs show a few pop-up showers or storms developing along the front given building instability (SPC mesoanalysis showing ~500-1000 J/kg across the Piedmont). Will continue a 20% PoP for these areas through the afternoon. Additional shower chances are expected overnight, with the highest coverage expected over the nrn half of the area. Not expecting any thunder tonight. Some patchy fog may also move onshore across SE VA and NE NC, but think visibilities will not get too low given the elevated winds. Lows tonight will be chillier than the previous few nights and around 50 on the MD Eastern Shore to the mid-upper 50s for the rest of the area (lower 60s down along the Albemarle Sound). The front will be well W/SW of the area by tonight into Saturday. Sfc high pressure will be left in its wake across New England. This will wedge a cool/moist low-level airmass over the entire area for the day Saturday. This will also keep cloudy conditions in place. The best forcing/lift and moisture remains across the W, so expecting the highest coverage Saturday mainly W of I-95. Despite this, it will tend to remain unpleasant even towards the coast w/ onshore flow and patchy drizzle. Continue to trend highs lower with temps struggling to reach 60 across the N, with mid 60s-low 70s elsewhere. There is a chance that far SW portions of the CWA (e.g., Northampton/Bertie Counties in NC) reach the upper 70s, but this may even be overdone. These values are still below NBM (especially S). On and off "showery" rainfall continues overnight Saturday with lows in the 50s N to 60s S. QPF through tomorrow averages from up to 0.50" across the W, 0.1-0.4" central, and 0.00" to a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday. - More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide. The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s and 80s and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing with rather weak shear. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages... - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle to end of next week. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak shortwaves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. These convective complexes may also move through the region from the NW, but these features are notoriously hard to predict. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7-7.5 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. Instability will certainly not be a limiting factor as temps warm into the 80s and 90s every day. At this time, the synoptic pattern for severe looks most favorable Thursday with an approaching trough and the most robust CAPE. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. We continue to have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Friday... Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 00z/04 TAF period as MVFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, mainly dry wx is expected through 03z before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday. Cannot completely rule out thunder at RIC overnight, but the chance of this is very low. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast). Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 710 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night. - Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday. - Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday. Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters). Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time. Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Have issues a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and approach minor flood levels later on Saturday. Tidal departures will increase overnight due to winds persisting onshore from the E or ENE. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...AM/SW AVIATION...ERI/SW MARINE...LKB/RMM/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ ####018007634#### FXUS61 KOKX 032333 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 733 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the New England coast and into our area will remain nearly stationary into Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Tuesday before returning as a warm front Wednesday. A series of frontal waves may impact the area to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Forecast on track this evening. A high amplitude upper ridge over the eastern third of the country will be slow to translate east through the first half this weekend. This will keep surface high pressure ridging down along the New England coast and into our area. Expect a light easterly flow to continue with varying amounts of cloud cover. Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of high clouds moving through the upper ridge axis. This could impact temperatures somewhat depending on the opacity. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 40s, but around 50 for the NYC metro. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Not much change during this time as the forecast area will remain under an easterly flow at 10 mph or less. Varying amounts of high clouds will filter through the upper ridge over the area on Saturday, which works to the east Saturday night. Clouds will lower and thicken Saturday night with some fog possible toward daybreak Sunday. Warm advection rain on the backside of the ridge, ahead of an approaching warm front, continues to trend slower. Chances of rain Saturday night remain low and mainly after midnight. Temperatures during this time will at or just below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... *Key Points* *An approaching front will bring rain Sunday into Sunday night, which ends early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts average one quarter to one half inch. *The front stalls to our south early next week with limited chances for showers through Tuesday. *Unsettled conditions are likely Wednesday through next Friday, although not a wash out. Several frontal waves are possible, which may bring periods of showers, but timing is uncertain. *Below normal temperatures Sunday should trend back above normal next week. Timing of the potential precip could impact temperatures late in the week. A shortwave associated with a larger upper low over Central Canada will try to break down the highly amplified ridging over the east coast to start the long term. The guidance has continued to show a slower trend to this process with the associated frontal system not moving through the area until Sunday night or early Monday. Rain associated with the front should start in the morning west of the NYC metro and then slowly spread eastward through the afternoon. This continues to look like mainly an overrunning rainfall with little to no elevated instability. Average amounts range from around one quarter to one half inch. The shortwave axis will push offshore later Monday with the front stalled to our south and west. Another highly amplified ridge builds across the Great Lakes in response to a large upper low over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. There are conflicting signals in the guidance for whether or not energy will traverse underneath the ridge towards the area Monday night. This potential energy would interact with the stalled front to bring another chance of rain. However, some of the global guidance weakens the energy with the height field becoming suppressed over New England in response to an upper low over the Maritimes. A weak high pressure should build towards New England which should keep any precip, if it were to develop, mainly near the coast closer to the stalled front. Have used the NBM for PoPs with just a low chance near the coast Monday night. A piece of the ridge builds overhead on Tuesday, so this should end up being a mainly dry day. The next forecast challenge will be for Wednesday through the end of the week. The stationary front to our south and west should begin lifting back north as a warm front on Wednesday. The parent low will be associated with the upper low over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, but there may be a few waves along the warm front. One of these may be enough to initiate some convection Wednesday afternoon or evening. The upper low then slowly moves east towards the Great Lakes to end the week. Several frontal waves may move across or just south the area keeping conditions unsettled. Timing of these waves is highly uncertain given a late Day 5 through Day 7 forecast, so have capped PoPs off at high chance for now. Sunday will be cool with rain and temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. Conditions should begin rising back above normal next week with temperatures in the 70s most afternoons away from the immediate coastline. Have followed the NBM deterministic, but it should be noted that there is a fair amount of spread in the guidance, especially later in the week due to the potential precip. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains along the New England coast and into our area through Saturday. VFR to start. Cigs may fall once again into late tonight into Saturday morning with potential stratus development, though confidence is too low to prevail at this time. Left a TEMPO group for this possibility generally from 06/08Z-10/12Z Saturday. An E/SE flow with speeds around 10 kt or less will shift to the E tonight for the city terminals, and become light and variable for the outlying terminals. An occasional gust to around 20 kt is possible into the early evening hours. SE winds on Saturday with speeds at or below 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... There is uncertainty with the development of MVFR or lower clouds tonight. Best timing for this is between 06Z-10Z. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday Night: MVFR to IFR. Increasing chance of showers overnight. Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt. Monday...VFR. Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers. Wednesday...MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to start the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly flow across the waters. Winds will generally be around 10 kt. Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria Sunday the middle of next week with a weak pressure gradient in place. There may be an increase in winds closer to 20 kt and seas building to around 4 ft, but conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...MW MARINE...DS/DW HYDROLOGY...DS/DW ####018004702#### FXUS64 KBRO 032334 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The combination of moist, low-level air, daytime heating, and mid to upper level energy could still support some convection to the west over neighboring Mexico late this afternoon through evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could potentially drift into Zapata, and possibly Starr and Jim Hogg counties later this afternoon and evening. SPC has placed the aforementioned areas in a marginal severe thunderstorm outlook area, with the remainder of the CWA in a general thunderstorm outlook area. The main threats would be large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. Otherwise, increasing low level moisture and light winds tonight may support patchy light fog, mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and near/over marine areas. With a weak cold front staying north of the area tomorrow, the CWA is not in a thunderstorm outlook area for day 2. Additionally, above normal temperatures (a few degrees above average) will continue through the short-term with highs generally ranging from the lower to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast, Saturday. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows mainly in the mid 70s. Southeast winds will remain moderate to breezy. Moderate seas will sustain a moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The main event for the long term forecast period continues to be the above normal temperatures and the potential for some Heat Advisories to be issued next week. With the continued surface flow of southerly winds bring in more warm air to the region temperatures are expected to continue to rise. With the wind possibly having a southwesterly component to it as well during the period, that would allow for some dry, but even warmer air to move into the region. With the expected cloud coverage looking rather sparse as well during the upcoming work week, the incoming solar radiation will allow for even more heating during the day. While borderline for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday seem more likely days that will require Heat Advisories issued due the combination of the hot temperatures and very humid environment. High temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits for most of the area, with areas along the coast in the lower 90s. With an almost consistent zonal flow pattern aloft and a lack of any real forcing in the atmosphere, the long term forecast period is expected to be rain free. With that, there is not much expected to be in the form of relief from the heat expect maybe a bit of a breezy. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through tonight and into Saturday. Optimistically breaking into VFR ceilings by late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, although MVFR ceilings may persist before taking back over just beyond this TAF period. Best chance of any convection remains west, with tall CB and large hail possible across the border. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Tonight through Saturday night...Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to sometimes higher seas will prevail along the lower Texas Coast. Small craft should exercise caution conditions may occur at times. Sunday through Next Friday..Generally light to moderate winds and moderate seas will be in play through next Friday. This will lead to extended periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution as winds increase with the tight pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast. While rougher seas are also possible around Monday, requiring a low-end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 89 76 89 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 74 91 75 91 / 10 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 93 77 92 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 93 76 93 / 20 0 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 81 77 82 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 86 75 88 / 10 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...56-Hallman ####018009871#### FXUS66 KPDT 032334 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 434 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .Updated for Aviation... .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS...VFR conditions are generally expected through the period, except for BDN and RDM, and possibly DLS. An upper low will move toward the coast tonight and inland over northern California Saturday night. Rain will develop in advance of this low as early as tonight for locations such as DLS, RDM and BDN and continue through much of the day on Saturday. RA is expected to develop later Saturday elsewhere. Latest guidance suggests likely MVFR conditions at BDN and RDM on Saturday (60-80% confidence) and a lower chance at DLS (20-30%) confidence. At this time, will keep DLS TAF VFR, but may need to add some MVFR conditions in later issuances. Winds will also increase at most sites on Saturday and could gust as high as 25 kts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024/ SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night... Key Messages: 1. Significant rain and mountain snow through the weekend. 2. Some area rivers nearing or exceeding action (bankfull) stage. 3. Breezy winds late Saturday through Sunday evening. Current radar and visible satellite imagery showing light to moderate returns beginning to approach the west slopes of the Oregon Cascades as mid-to high level clouds extend into the Basin. This is in response to a robust upper level trough that is dropping from the the Gulf of Alaska and closing in on the Pacific Northwest coast. The low and associated cold front will pass through our area on Saturday as wrap-around moisture will keep widespread precipitation chances in the forecast through Sunday afternoon. This cold front will allow for snow levels to quickly drop 6000-7000 feet early Saturday morning to 2500-4000 feet early Sunday morning across Central Oregon. These dropping snow levels coupled with ample moisture will lead to significant, advisory level snowfall to occur across the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades and through the John Day-Ochoco Highlands. This has warranted to issuance of Winter Weather Advisories beginning at 5 AM Saturday across the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades and starting at 5 PM along the John Day-Ochoco Highlands above 4000 feet. 4 to 10 inches of snow is expected across the east slopes above 4000 feet and 3 to 7 inches of snow is likely across the John Day-Ochoco Highlands above 4000 feet. There is also a potential for significant snowfall across the southern Blue Mountains with 2-5 inches possible, mainly above 4000 feet. These amounts across the southern Blue Mountains are just below advisory criteria, but will need to be closely monitored. Confidence in these snow amounts are moderate to high (70-80%) as the NBM suggests a 65-85% chance of 6 inches or more snowfall across the east slopes of the Oregon Cascades Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon, a 70-90% chance of advisory level snow amounts (3 inches or more) across the John Day-Ochoco Highlands Saturday evening through Sunday evening, and a 40-60% chance of advisory level snow amounts (5 inches or more) along the southern Blue Mountains Saturday evening through Sunday evening. Substantial low and mid-level moisture is associated with this system as rain accumulations of 0.50 to 1.25 inches are expected across lower elevations of the Basin Saturday morning through Sunday night, with 1.5-2 inches likely across the Blue Mountains and Cascades. The only areas that are expected to see 0.25-0.50 of an inch include the Bend-Redmond area and the Kittitas Valley. Confidence in these rain amounts are moderate (50-65%) as the NBM suggests a 40-65% chance of 0.50 of an inch of rain across lower elevations, with higher chances residing along the northern Blue Mountain foothills and the John Day Basin. The NBM also highlights a 50-60% chance of rainfall of 1 inch or greater over the northern Blue Mountains and Elkhorns, with only a 10-30% chance over the Oregon Cascades. This moisture will also translate to rises across area rivers, with only the Naches River near Cliffdell currently expected to reach action (bankfull) stage briefly Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. The John Day River at Service Creek looks to stay just shy of action (bankfull) stage Monday afternoon, but will continue to monitor as the weekend event unfolds. The incoming system will also attribute to breezy winds that will begin tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds are expected to increase to 30-40 mph across the base of the northern Blue Mountain foothills beginning shortly after midnight tonight and extend through much of the morning on Saturday. The cold front will pass late Saturday morning to allow these winds to slacken through the afternoon as a pressure gradient begins to set up along the Cascades to increase winds through the Simcoe Highlands, eastern Gorge, and the northern Blue Mountain foothills beginning Saturday evening and extending through the day on Sunday. Winds are expected to peak between midnight on Sunday through noon Sunday as advertised by the GFS, NAM, and SREF indicating a 11-12.5mb pressure difference between Portland and Spokane. These values are just shy of advisory criteria as gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible. Winds will be slowly decreasing through the late afternoon and evening, but gusts of 30-40 mph will still be possible until early Monday morning. Confidence in these wind gusts are high (80-90%) as the NBM suggests an 85-95% chance of wind gusts of 47 mph or greater across the northern Blue Mountain foothills and the Kittitas Valley. This may warrant the need for wind highlights to be issued, so stay tuned. 75 LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Elongated troughing will bring about a cool weather pattern for much of the work week, before a high pressure ridge moves in and warms up temps toward seasonal averages and perhaps even above normal values by the start of next weekend. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement on the synoptic pattern next week, starting with a deep low centered over the Gulf of Alaska that partially envelops the PacNW with cold air. Guidance suggests that this low will essentially split into two systems: a low that remains over northern Canada and another low that gradually shifts eastward into the northern Plains. During this splitting process, the parent Alaskan low will advect in moisture into the forecast area on Monday, however QPF guidance early on indicates that this will primarily be a mountain/high elevation event. NBM probabilistic guidance depicts only about a 20% chance of much of the Basin seeing at least 0.05 inches, with chances increasing across our foothill zones (40-60%) and central Oregon (45-55%). The warm air advection from this weekend's system might shield the forecast area from lower snow levels, with Monday's levels in the 4000-5000 ft range, but cannot completely rule out our Cascade Passes from seeing some light accumulating snow. That being said, confidence is on the lower end (30-40%) due to how borderline snow levels are in the NBM for Monday. Once the low splits, our forecast area will find itself on the western flank of the departing low to the east, resulting in some cold air advection via northerly flow aloft. Temps look to remain below average Tuesday into Wednesday by as much as 15 degrees, however temperature ensembles do not currently suggest a freeze risk for the Basin. PoPs fall off on Tuesday as drier air prevails overhead with PWATs in the 0.2-0.3 range, leaving primarily light, orographically driven precip over the mountains thanks to N/NW flow aloft. For Wednesday onward, the forecast looks to be dry and warmer. Ensembles are in pretty strong agreement that a ridge will build in by the end of next work week, allowing temps to soar well into the 70s across our population centers. Should high pressure persist, as 8-10 day ensemble clustering suggests, highs in the lower Basin could even reach into the low 80s by next weekend. Confidence is high (70%) in this warm and dry forecast panning out based on what ensembles are showing. Evans/74 AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR conditions for today with currently high clouds at most sites, except for KPDT/KALW having clear skies. Cloud coverage will increase starting this afternoon into tonight/Saturday morning. KPDT might have winds gusting up to 24kts tonight as the low off OR coast pushes a cold front over PacNW. This will also bring rain showers into KDLS/KRDM/KBDN/KYKM Saturday morning as well. Winds will be less than 10kts, but will increase for KPDT/KALW this evening and overnight. Feaster/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 51 68 37 47 / 20 40 90 80 ALW 55 72 41 50 / 10 30 90 80 PSC 56 72 46 56 / 10 30 90 70 YKM 49 63 44 62 / 30 80 70 40 HRI 54 70 41 54 / 20 40 90 80 ELN 44 61 42 57 / 30 80 50 40 RDM 40 49 31 47 / 70 80 50 50 LGD 47 65 37 47 / 10 20 90 80 GCD 46 61 34 44 / 10 80 90 90 DLS 49 56 45 55 / 50 80 70 50 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ506. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ509. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...77 ####018005398#### FXUS64 KMOB 032334 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions will return this evening across the area as winds relax in the wake of showers and storms. After midnight, some patchy fog and IFR ceilings should develop mainly across the Florida Panhandle and interior portions of southern Alabama. Some reductions to IFR or LIFR visbys and ceilings will be possible. Ceiling and visbys return to VFR tomorrow morning as winds turn light out of the south once again. BB/03 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have begun to initiate across portions of the southeast this afternoon, as a weak shortwave moves through the region. Despite a lack of strong forcing, this activity has been aided in diurnal temperatures, and are expected to remain fairly unorganized. Given an abundance of moisture across the area (PWs around 1.5 inch), locally heavy rainfall will be possible, along with brief wind gusts. This activity should begin to diminish towards the late afternoon and early evening hours as the shortwave moves to the east and we lose our daytime heating. The upper flow pattern will remain fairly unchanged through the overnight hours and into Saturday, as a series of shortwaves move through the region. Without any large scale ascent, dry conditions will prevail overnight, with mid and high clouds persisting across the area. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s just before daybreak on Saturday. Patchy fog is possible once again tonight, and may be dense in some locations. However, given the cloud cover, the coverage is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory at this point. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected once again on Saturday, though the coverage will be scattered at best. The better chance for thunderstorms will be over the northern half of the area, where the influence of the shortwaves may be a tad higher. Otherwise, expect highs to warm into the upper 80s across much of the area. /73 SHORT and LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Weak ridging will begin to build into the area Saturday night, with another shortwave moving through during the day Sunday. This will bring another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with lesser coverage over our southern zones. Locally heavy rainfall and brief winds gusts will be possible with any storm that develops and this activity will likely diminish Sunday evening with the loss of daytime heating. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday afternoon, falling into the lower to mid 60s Sunday night. By Monday, a strong ridge begins to build into the region, amplifying on Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves into the Planes. Dry conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, with the main focus on the potential heat next week. Under the influence of the ridge, and after several days of persistent southerly flow, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s (~10 degrees above seasonal norms). Heat indices will be in the upper 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, which may lead to heat stress concerns. Overall, though, RH will likely remain low enough to prevent widespread heat concerns. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s each night. /73 MARINE... Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then increase slightly during the early part of next week as surface high pressure continues to ridge into the marine area from the east. Bay waters will have a light to moderate chop through the period. Seas offshore generally remain 2 feet or less over the next few days, but increase to around 2 to 3 feet late in the weekend and into the early part of next week due to the slight increase in winds. Winds will be a little higher and occasionally gusty each afternoon near the coast in association with the daily sea breeze circulation. A few showers or storms are possible over the bays and inland waterways this weekend. /73 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 86 67 86 68 85 69 86 / 10 20 0 10 10 20 0 0 Pensacola 69 83 69 83 70 83 72 84 / 20 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 Destin 70 82 69 82 70 83 72 82 / 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 65 89 63 89 64 88 65 89 / 20 30 10 20 10 20 0 10 Waynesboro 64 89 64 88 64 88 66 89 / 10 30 10 30 10 20 0 10 Camden 65 87 64 88 65 86 66 88 / 30 30 10 30 20 20 0 10 Crestview 64 89 63 89 64 88 65 88 / 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob ####018007468#### FXUS63 KDLH 032334 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern will lead to continued on and off precipitation chances through the next 7-10 days, with most of the precipitation falling tonight into Saturday and then Monday night into Tuesday. - In between rounds of rainfall, dry conditions in combination with strong winds could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions on Monday. - Thunderstorms are possible (20-30 percent chance) late Monday through Tuesday night, with severe weather potential very low - perhaps a 5 percent chance at most for isolated marginally severe storms in northwest Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An active weather pattern continues through the first week of May, which is helping to reduce the number of dry and windy days that could lead to critical fire weather conditions. Today will be mainly sunny to start across the Northland with the exception of parts of Koochiching County where the closed low lifting north is still causing cloudy skies and the occasional light rain shower. Highs today in the 60s (perhaps a stray 70 in northwest Wisconsin) and drying out with relative humidity values as low as 25-30 percent. Windy with southwest winds 15-20 mph with winds gusting as high as 25-30 mph. Clouds return this afternoon from west to east. On the synoptic scale a fairly progressive pattern across North America to start the weekend as a closed low over northern Minnesota lifts northward with the parent longwave mid/upper level trough over the Canadian Prairie into the Dakotas gradually meanders eastward. This eastward progression is accelerated this evening as a fast- moving mid-level shortwave trough digs in across the central Rockies and then ejects northeastward towards Lake Superior tonight into Saturday. This impulse brings with it impressive broad-scale lift across the region tonight with strong warm air advection at low levels across northern Wisconsin and excellent positive vorticity advection over MN/WI, with a surface front emerging/sharpening up nearly in line with the MN/WI border Saturday morning. The best broad-scale lift is offset from the best area of low level moisture, and combined with the fast-moving nature of this impulse there is an atypically large spread in guidance for the precip amounts - generally amounts of around a tenth to quarter inch expected along and south/east of the Iron Range (highest from Brainerd/Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports and up the north shore), with the odds for a half inch or more low (20-30 percent, highest across eastern MN) and values over an inch unlikely (less than 5 percent chance). The exception will be north and west of the Iron Range (which has missed out of the highest precip amounts over the previous week) where little to no precipitation is expected due to weaker broad-scale lift. The weekend won't be a total washout, though - sunshine should start to peak out of the clouds in central Minnesota by the afternoon Saturday, and most locations across the Northland will be the sun break out before sunset Saturday evening. Sunday will be a top-ten weather day with sunny skies, highs in the 60s (50s for parts of the north shore) and weak winds as a broad area of high pressure builds in across the Upper Midwest. Warmer and breezy on Monday with highs hitting the 70 degree mark for much of the Northland (except near Lake Superior where east winds will keep temps in the 50s to low 60s). Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible as relative humidity values fall to 25 to 35 percent and southeast winds gust as strong as 20-30 mph. Another round of precipitation arrives late Monday with precipitation chances every day for the rest of the week. While mid/upper level ridging builds in across the Midwest this weekend, a very large closed upper level low enters the western CONUS, digging into the Four Corners region and causing a resultant surface low to deepen over the Great Plains, with the surface low probably develop in the Central High Plains Monday, lifting north into the northern Great Plains on Tuesday. This surface low will be anomalously deep for this time of the year - a much more winter/early spring evolution than late spring - and then the mature low over the northern Great Plains just... hangs out for a few days. The closed low essentially gets stuck as the "parent" upper level longwave trough slowly moves eastward into the Great Plains through the rest of the work week, with the weakening surface low tracking east from the Dakotas into the Upper Great Lakes. This pattern evolution is complicated, and with the complex nature there is a lot of uncertainty in the details. However, in most scenarios there will be off and on precipitation chances through the week with temperatures near normal (highs in the upper 50s to 60s). Most of the precipitation next week will fall late Monday and through Tuesday, with elevated instability leading to a few embedded thunderstorms. There MAY be scenario in which a few storms are capable of small hail in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon, but severe weather is unlikely. In total Mon night through Wednesday morning around a quarter to half inch of rainfall is expected, but locally higher amounts of an inch are possible. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 High clouds are moving in from the west this evening out ahead of of an approaching shortwave. This shortwave will swing in from the west and bring rain showers through the overnight period and most of tomorrow morning. Ceilings will drop to IFR with VIS fluctuating from the rain. Lightning chances look to be negligible (less than 10%). Weather conditions will begin to improve as we head into the afternoon hours. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Strong southwest winds today gradually weaken this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect through the day. Another round of rain tonight into Saturday with weak west winds 5-10 knots Saturday, increasing and becoming more southerly at 10-15 knots on Sunday as high pressure builds in. A change on Monday as northeast winds increase through the day as an area of low pressure deepens across the Dakotas, with steady winds around 15-20 knots developing Monday and persisting through Tuesday/Tuesday night. Gale-force gusts are possible (10 percent chance) on Tuesday afternoon, but widespread gale force winds are not anticipated. With a long period of steady northeast winds, waves will build to 3-6 feet Tuesday, possibly larger for the north shore. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJM AVIATION...Britt MARINE...JJM