####018005801#### FXUS61 KALY 032336 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 736 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 735 PM EDT, few changes needed with this update. Upper level ridge axis will be directly overhead tonight. High pressure off the New England coast will bring largely dry weather across the region tonight with some patchy mid and high clouds. Forecast soundings and an early look at the 00z KALY sounding shows rather dry air in the low- levels, so low cloud development later tonight may be fairly limited. While most of the precipitation will remain to our west tonight, a few sprinkles may reach portions of Herkimer County after midnight. Previous Discussion: Just some areas of thin high clouds across NY State into western New England. Low level ridging in eastern New England slowly building offshore as upper ridging over our region providing some larger scale subsidence. Light southeast to south low level flow could support development of some low clouds tonight, especially in the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires, but low levels have been drying and inversions are being mixed out, so low clouds may be more sparse than last night. Clouds associated with the slowly approaching frontal system in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will stay mainly to the west overnight. Light winds and just thin high clouds will allow for some radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The axis of deeper moisture associated with the upper energy and associated warm and cold front will slowly approach through the day Saturday. Sources of guidance/ensembles suggest the leading edge of the deeper cloud cover and any rain is timed for very late Saturday afternoon and night. This suggests more periods of high clouds through the day with steady light south to southeast winds and highs in the 60s to around 70. Showers move into our region from southwest to northeast through the night Saturday night and by daybreak Sunday many areas will see showers. Depending on the timing, the onset of showers in the Capital Region and points north and east may be after daybreak Sunday. Then, clouds and showers across the entire region Sunday, limiting warming. There could be a rumble of thunder but chances are low with a lack of instability. Highs mainly in the 50s Sunday. Rain moves out Sunday night and there cold be a lingering early morning shower Monday. Then, weak cold advection begins with the exit of the upper system and cold front Monday. Highs Monday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Increasing clouds through the day, with around 70 higher terrain and near 80 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. By Wednesday through the rest of next week, split upper flow with northern stream upper energy slowly dropping out of Canada and a closed upper low slowly approaching from the northern and central plains. Confluent upper flow and associated moisture advection and low level jet forcing will result in showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night through Friday. There will be some periods of dry weather but there is a lot of spread in sources of guidance as to the timing of embedded smaller upper impulses and associated focused moisture, low level forcing and areas of showers. Still, the general upper pattern should support unsettled weather. So, again, indicating chances for showers Tuesday night through Friday. The threat for severe weather and/or heavy rain looks limited due to the relatively weak upper dynamics and weak low level forcing. Highs Wednesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Friday in the 60s with near 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and some 50s southern Adirondacks. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions are in place at the TAF sites and look to remain VFR through the upcoming TAF period. High pressure off the New England coast and upper-level energy to our west will bring occasional clouds across the TAF sites, but cigs should remain at or above 5 kft much of the period. Low cloud development looks less likely tonight but will monitor trends. Wind will be southeasterly for much of the TAF period at 4-8 kt tonight and around 10 kt on Saturday. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS/Rathbun SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Rathbun ####018005636#### FXUS64 KMRX 032337 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 737 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Message: A few instances of small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours are possible this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. Discussion: Currently showers and thunderstorms are traversing across much of the southeastern United States being aided by a shortwave moving through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. As of this writing there is predominantly just rain showers, but increasing instability means we'll likely see more thunderstorms moving through the southern Appalachians through the rest of the evening. Soundings and CAMs are still showing a few hundred (maybe up to near 1000) J/kg of MLCAPE the rest of this afternoon. Combine this with a fairly week lapse rate and very little shear, and the chances for widespread sever weather continue to look low. With that being said an individual thunderstorm could bring brief heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds in areas that have destabilized this afternoon. With how slow these storms are currently moving and the possibilty of multiple storms over a small area, the biggest threat the rest of the afternoon/evening is likely to be flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas. As we head into the overnight hours we should see a lull in activity, and although the threat of rain does not go away, but the risk of lightning and strong storms really decreases as the shortwave exits the area and the atmosphere becomes more stable overnight. On Saturday we will likely see a similar story as today, with morning showers transitioning into afternoon thunderstorms with heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds as the primary hazards in the strongest storms. Forecast soundings show a similar environment with weak to moderate CAPE and weak shear, so once again widespread severe weather looks unlikely. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: 1. An unsettled pattern is expected through the extended period with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. More organized convection is possible by Wednesday/Thursday of next week. 2. Temperatures will be generally above normal. Discussion: We start the period with a fairly weak upper level flow pattern over the region and a short wave moving through. Most model guidance suggest the short wave will exit by early Sunday, with short wave ridging building in. This may allow for less coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, but it still looks like there will be enough moisture and instability for at least scattered convection. The upper level ridging looks to be short lived as another short wave aloft moves in Sunday night/Monday, along with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Models suggest modest instability with MLCAPES likely around 100J/kg or less for both Sunday and Monday and shear will be on the weak side given the weaker flow. However some stronger storms with gusty downburst winds will be possible as well as locally heavy rainfall rates given the near 90th percentile PWATs (around 1.4 inches both days). The unsettled pattern will continue for the Tuesday through Friday time frame, although timing of individual short waves in the flow is uncertain. Ensembles do suggest a more dynamic pattern developing with the upper jet nosing in from the west/northwest then dipping south, and mean 850 mb flow will likely increase to 30+ kts and may exceed 40 kts at some point during the period. In addition, a cold front is forecast to be moving in from the northwest by the end of the period. There are still model differences and timing questions, but the data does indicate that by Wednesday we will see an environment with potentially better thermodynamics and deep-layer shear sufficient for more organized convection than in the earlier part of the extended period. This will bear watching going forward. The long term period will generally feature temperatures above seasonal normals, although precipitation timing/coverage may help to hold high temperatures down on some wetter days, and the cold front moving in Friday is expected to help hold temperatures Friday down closer to normal although timing that far out is of course still very uncertain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers and storms will continue this evening mainly near CHA. A lull in activity is expected overnight but some showers will still be possible. Tomorrow morning showers will increase again and by afternoon activity will be more widespread. Isolated thunder will be possible tomorrow mainly in the afternoon. MVFR CIGs are expected late tonight through at least the morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 81 64 84 / 70 80 30 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 78 63 82 / 70 90 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 63 78 62 82 / 60 90 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 76 59 79 / 50 90 60 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...McD ####018007639#### FXUS61 KPHI 032337 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 737 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the next few days. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west through the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 6:30PM...The current forecast continues to remain challenging due to pesky marine layer over the Coastal Plain. An expansive ridge of high pressure is building into eastern Canada with the southwestward periphery of this feature extending back into the Mid-Atlantic. In fact guidance actually depicts this feature strengthening slightly over our area during the next 24 hours. Meanwhile though, this ridge has resulted in easterly flow that has brought in a low deck of some marine stratus into much of NJ, DE, and even extending at times into portions of eastern PA. Finally, there is a frontal system that's approaching from the west with some showers however, it will take some time for these showers to get into the area over the weekend as it runs up against the ridge in place. The upshot of all this is that skies are variable across the area with the marine stratus eroding back to the east while high cirrus continues over western areas. Regardless, it will remain precip free though through the evening. Overnight, however, shortwave energy will ride over the top of the upper level ridge centered over the east and help to push showers from the west closer to the region. This could bring a few light showers into parts of Delmarva and eastern PA by daybreak. Otherwise, clouds thicken through the night with lows getting down mainly into the upper 40s to around 50. For Saturday, low pressure moves eastward towards the Great Lakes driven by an advancing upper level trough. As this occurs, showers well ahead of it will continuing to try making inroads into our area while running up against the stubborn surface high that will be slow to move out. The upshot is some scattered showers will likely make it in at times, especially over eastern PA and Delmarva and especially getting into the second half of the day (POPs here by late day generally 40 to 60 percent). Otherwise it will be a mostly cloudy and cool day with continuing easterly winds and highs only making it to the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday night will featured continued marine flow from the east as the approaching front from the west washes out. Thus, expect areas near the coast to be mostly dry and cool, with a better chance of showers inland due to the nearby stalled front. Lows mostly in the upper 40s. Next, stronger front approaches from the west Sunday, but its approach looks slower, so have slowed the progress of higher POPs into the area. Looks like best chance of widespread showers is late day and at night Sunday night. With the marine layer likely to hold fairly firm, chance of thunder looks minimal, and severe weather risk appears zero. Highs 50s north, 60s south, perhaps near 70 far southern DE and adjacent parts of MD. Rain showers move out on Monday morning, though again opted for slower timing given trend. Marine layer looks like it is at least somewhat disrupted as flow turns westerly and a warm front tries to lift north, allowing temps to potentially rise to the 70s for most and near 80 southern DE/adjacent MD. Guidance now wants to generate some convection in the afternoon, and given the warmer and more humid air mass, its not out of the question we have a few stronger cells, but at this point there doesn't appear to be a significant severe wx or flood risk. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather continues through the week ahead. The front that lifts north thru the area Monday doesn't get far, and looks to even slide back south a little Tuesday, though at this point still looks likely mostly 70s. Another approaching shortwave and proximity of the front could spark off a shower or t-storm, but right now looks like low coverage. Front lifts a little further north behind that shortwave Wednesday, allowing temps to rise a bit. With it remaining nearby and another front approaching from the north, the odds of some aft/eve convection increases a bit. Highs closer to 80. Guidance is trending towards the return of a marine layer behind said front for Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend in temps. A passing wave may produce some better shower coverage Thursday as well, so we have highest POPs in the long term on Thursday. Friday trend is a little drier but still a marine influence. It should be noted that with the wavering front nearby all week and several weak waves, its possible the details of the forecast are notably different from how they currently appear, so check back for updates frequently. Guidance is very mixed presently. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Different conditions expected for each terminal tonight. For KRDG/KABE, expect VFR through 05-06Z, before becoming MVFR CIGs after 07-08Z. For KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG, expect a mixture of VFR/MVFR CIGs through 07-08Z, before becoming MVFR CIGs after 08-09Z. For KMIV/KACY, expect MVFR CIGs through 05-06Z, becoming IFR CIGs after 06Z. East winds around 3-8 kt. Low confidence, especially with the timing of lowering ceilings. Saturday...Mainly MVFR for all terminals. There is indication a brief period of VFR CIGs are possible during the afternoon for all terminals except KMIV/KACY. Otherwise, just some scattered showers. East-Southeast winds around 8-13 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Restrictions expected with showers moving through, with CIGs as low as IFR possible. Best chance of showers is late Sunday/Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with any showers. 20-40% chance of showers through this period. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory has been extended for the ocean zones from Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island until 10 PM due to seas around 5-6 feet. These conditions should continue to diminish early this evening with seas diminishing to 10 to 15 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet. Little change is expected on Saturday. It will also be mainly cloudy over the waters through Saturday with some patchy fog possible at times. Outlook... Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters Sunday through Sunday night. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ453>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/RCM NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM ####018008086#### FXUS63 KGID 032338 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 638 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms currently ongoing over western NE will push its way east through the area this evening/tonight. There will be the potential for some storms to be strong/severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary concern. The main time from of severe weather looks to be 8PM-2AM. - After an overall dry weekend, another potent system will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to the area Monday-Monday night. During the mid-late afternoon and evening hours, there will be the potential for severe storms...large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. - Spotty, low chances (20 percent) for precipitation continue in the forecast for Tuesday and on, but confidence in any of those chances is low at this point. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently through tonight... Outside of some scattered showers/weak storms which pushed through northern portions of the forecast area this morning, its been a dry day. Aloft, upper air and satellite data show west-southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains, sitting east of shortwave trough which is making its way through the Northern/Central Rockies. It was a cloudier start to the day, but sky cover has gradually diminished with time, with skies currently mostly sunny to partly cloudy. At the surface, thanks to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of deepening low pressure over eastern CO and northward extending cold front, southeasterly winds have been gusty this afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 MPH common. Forecast highs looking to work out fairly well, with 3PM obs showing low-mid 70s in place for most locations. Looking out to our west, as that upper level disturbance has been pushing east, storms have fired along that accompanying surface boundary. While not expecting much going on here over the next few hours, as we get into the evening/overnight hours, the evolution of that activity becomes more of a concern. Activity is expected to expand in coverage along that front...and slowed down the onset of PoPs just a touch from previous forecast, moving into far western portions at 00Z. As far as timing goes through the overnight hours, there is pretty good agreement among models showing the main line being at least halfway through the forecast area by midnight, over far east- southeastern areas by around 09Z, and exiting the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. A LLJ increasing to around 40kts will help sustain activity, and while those gusty SSE winds are trying to bring more lower level moisture into the area, all but far southern portions of the area still have dewpoints in the 30s/40s. Models show the potential for modest instability/MUCAPE of around 1000-1500 j/kg, mainly focused over the southern half of the forecast area...with at least 40kts of deeper layer shear to work with. Portions of the forecast area along/south of I-80 are included in the SPC Day 1 outlook...where damaging wind gusts/large hail are the primary hazards. The main severe threat looks to be in that 8PM-2AM time frame. Gusty northwest winds will build into the area behind this front, with the potential for gusts around 30 MPH continuing through the early morning hours. This weekend... At this point, thinking is that for most areas, the weekend will be dry. Models showing some upper level shortwave ridging sliding through the region, set up between tonight's system departing to the east and the next sizable low pressure system moving onto the central/northern West Coast Saturday evening/night. The main question with precipitation chances comes on Sunday across southern portions of the forecast area...all depending on the track of a shortwave disturbance mainly affecting the Southern Plains. Most models keep any QPF associated with system south of our area, a few try to creep enough moisture north to potentially affect our KS counties...but chances remain low (20 percent). The gusty winds associated with tonight's frontal passage remain to start off the day on Saturday, but as surface high pressure builds in, winds taper off and turn more eastern (mainly during the afternoon hours. Expecting mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid 60s. Saturday night into Sunday, that surface high slides off to the east, while low pressure starts to deepen over the Rockies/High Plains...bringing a switch in winds to the southeast, with western areas having the best chances for gustier conditions. More clouds start working their way back in, and afternoon highs are mid-upper 60s. Monday... Monday has the potential to be an interesting day across the forecast area, bringing the next best chance for strong/severe storms, but there are some uncertainties with the finer details. The upper level system moving onto the West Coast Saturday night continues to push east through the second half of the weekend, ending up roughly over the Central Rockies/Four Corner region by 12Z (models vary with whether the nature of the system is a organized low or more open). Through the day energy from this system swings northeast through the heart of the Central Plains, with some uncertainty with the exact speed...but its looking more typical for this time of year with things picking up mid-late afternoon. One of the bigger questions lies with the progress of the surface dry line...is it barely into western portions of the CWA when storms fire or is it closer to/east of Highway 281. Ahead of the dry line/deepening surface low, southerly winds increase (sustained speeds of 25-30 MPH expected, gusts over 40 MPH), helping draw up better lower level moisture...with models showing the potential for instability values near/over 2000 j/kg in spots (some question with just how high dewpoints can get this far north). Models continue to show no shortage of deeper layer shear, with values of at least 40kts...lower level shear isn't bad either. All modes of severe weather are a concern, especially with any supercells that can remain more discrete longer (activity should eventually turn more linear in nature). The further west things get rolling, the more of the forecast area that could be impacted. Still some details to iron out, but it's a period to keep an eye on. Tuesday and on... For Tuesday through Friday, overall the forecast is dry, but there are a few spotty low chances (20 percent) for precipitation. Models show in the wake of this trough swinging through on Monday, low pressure expands over over the Northern Rockies/Dakotas region Tue/Wed...with lower confidence in just how things evolve for Thu/Fri. Can't rule out periodic shortwave swinging through the area. The system on Monday and the accompanying surface front are not ushering in a notably cooler airmass, highs Tue-Fri remain in the 60s/70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Deteriorating conditions are expected at both terminals this evening as a line of thunderstorms approaches from the west. Expect the main line to reach KEAR around 04/02Z and KGRI around 04/03Z...with MVFR CIGS and VSBYS along with heavy rain and some potentially gusty winds. After this line moves through by 04/04-04/05Z...CIGS will lower further along with lighter precipitation and gusty northerly winds in the wake of the cold front. These lower CIGS will linger through around daybreak Saturday...with clear skies expected by afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Rossi ####018008166#### FXUS62 KJAX 032338 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 738 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Another day with a mix of sun and clouds is underway as the east coast seabreeze progresses further inland. The breeze is getting hung up a bit near the St. Johns River breezes and building some taller cumulus, though just not quite enough layer moisture for any showers or storms to come out of this as of now. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out between about I-75 and I-95 through the next few hours, though the main focus area will be in the vicinity of and west of I-75 and into southwestern GA counties this evening where the sea breeze collides with the Gulf breeze. There is also a surge of higher PWATs further west ahead of a shortwave impulse aloft, which should also aid in the formation of some showers and a few t'storms. Not expecting anything at severe criteria, as instability will not be significant and the flow aloft is generally weak. Most areas have risen into the mid to upper 80s, with maybe just a few degrees more to rise inland before the arrival of the sea breeze. Closer to the coast, likely have already topped out in the low 80s. The aforementioned shortwave pushes closer overnight tonight, which will be enough for some showers and isolated t'storms to persist overnight. Especially in areas inland to the west and north of I-10, away from strongest surface ridging and where there will be greater available moisture. With the lingering convection overnight and more cloud cover in the area, not expecting as much in the way of fog Saturday Morning as compared to this morning. Though some patchy areas cannot be ruled out, especially over northeast FL. Lows will be mild, in the 60s to low 70s by the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday...Rather messy/complex forecast as mid level trough/surface frontal boundary over the SE US and any ongoing leftover convection across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley during the morning hours with abundant clouds will disrupt the usual diurnal sea breeze convective cycle. This will lead to unbalanced afternoon scattered to numerous showers and storms along both leftover boundaries over inland areas and weaker than normal inland moving sea breeze fronts from both the Gulf/Atlantic, which should still lead to decent afternoon/evening convective coverage, mainly over inland areas, but timing and strength of any convection will depend on how much insolation occurs through the daytime hours. Models have trended slightly downward with Max temps in the lower/middle 80s across SE GA and along the Atlantic Coast, while mid/upper 80s still expected over inland NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the most sun is expected through the day and will likely be the location for any of the isolated stronger storms with gusty winds 40-50mph, lightning and heavy downpours, but widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. Saturday Night...Mid level trough aloft is expected to weaken with a more normal downward diurnal trend in convection after sunset, with more quiet conditions expected during the overnight hours under fair skies. Low temps expected in the mid/upper 60s inland, with lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog is possible inland but will depend on amount/coverage of rainfall on Saturday and potential clearing skies during the overnight hours, so have not included in forecast/grids this far in advance. Sunday...Lingering moisture from decaying trough aloft and more normal diurnal sea breeze circulation should lead to scattered afternoon storms, which may be numerous where sea breeze activity meets between the I-75 and US 301 corridors over inland areas, along with continued potential for widely scattered strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph, small hail, lightning and heavy downpours. Max temps expected to reach the widespread upper 80s with isolated near 90 degree readings over inland areas, while the Atlantic Coast tops out in the lower/middle 80s. Sunday Night...Weak ridging aloft begins to build into the region and expect an earlier end to most diurnal convection by sunset with partly/mostly clear skies developing overnight with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Typical patchy fog possible over inland areas, but significant dense fog not expected at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Monday...Weak mid level trough passage through the SE US region and associated lingering moisture should continue the early summer-like sea breeze convective pattern with scattered to numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours, with best chances across inland SE GA where deepest moisture remains. Max temps generally in the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas, with lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast and the threat for widely scattered strong storms will continue. Tuesday through Friday...Not much change to the ongoing forecast of hot and mainly dry weather still on track as mid level ridging builds into the Gulf of Mexico and surface ridge axis builds south of the local region and this will trap the East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic beaches and build the daytime highs into the lower to middle 90s with near record highs possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Diurnal convection will be suppressed but isolated storms will still be possible on Tuesday, and again by the late Friday time frame as some long range models are pushing a frontal boundary into the local region by the following weekend. Dew points mixing down into the mid/upper 60s during the afternoon hours will keep the heat indices likely below any Heat Advisory levels, but peak Heat Indices into the 100-105 range will be possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers are not expected to impact TAF sites during the overnight hours. A low chance of a shower developing near GNV over the next couple, left off the TAF for now. Otherwise, VFR through the overnight, with VQQ the lone exception with possibility of fog developing during the overnight. Shower and storms activity is expected to pick up through the day tomorrow, as of now only included VCSH for GNV near the tail end of TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Surface high pressure ridging will remain over area waters through the weekend, with a sea breeze expected to push inland each day. The associated high will slowly move further southeastward into early next week, strengthening by mid next week. Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains at low end of moderate level through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for... Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962 Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962 Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962 Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 84 64 87 / 30 60 30 60 SSI 70 79 69 81 / 10 20 20 40 JAX 66 85 67 86 / 0 30 20 40 SGJ 67 83 68 85 / 0 20 10 40 GNV 65 88 66 89 / 10 50 20 60 OCF 66 90 66 90 / 0 40 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018005259#### FXUS64 KCRP 032339 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 639 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: - There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country late this afternoon through late this evening. Main concern is this evening with the chances for thunderstorms, and whether they will become severe. High pressure is off to the east centered over Mississippi, and a sfc low is in northern Mexico. The pressure gradient has tightened over the Coastal Bend, and caused the winds to increase for a time this afternoon and into the evening. Thunderstorms are beginning to break out in the Big Bend region with the sfc trough that is aligned with the Rio Grande Valley. The HRRR/ARW/FV3 seem to have a good handle on this, with the GFS and ECMWF as well, but the larger models have weaker precipitation. Between 00z and 03z the storms are expected to move into northern Webb and Lasalle counties and move toward the southeast, but as they do the sfc high in Mississippi, is expected to build to the southwest, into the Coastal Bend, eastern Brush Country, and Victoria Crossroads. The models expect that the thunderstorms will get stopped by the sfc high, or pushed south down the Rio Grande Plains. The NAM barely has the thunder getting into the region, before it gets squashed. The only thing overnight then is isolated showers, and with the PWAT around 1.5" or better, a shower here or there is a low chance (<20%). Saturday, the front north of the Hill Country looks to remain there, with chances for rain to move south low (<10%), as the sfc high remains along the Coastal Bend. Saturday night, the models begin to move the front. the GFS pushes most of the thunderstorms to the east with the isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers creeping into the Brush Country. ECMWF pushes it a bit south and has a 500 mb shortwave that runs over the western part, kicking off rain in the western Hill Country, and getting rain into the Brush Country overnight. The NBM has a blend of the two solutions with slight chance to chance pops (15-40%) From Victoria to Laredo and locations north. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week Conditions begin with a low to medium chance (30-45%) for scattered thunderstorms Sunday. This will be due to some above normal PWAT values around the 99th percentile along with some associated energy from a upper level disturbance moving across the region to the north. The caveat with these storms will be the solid CIN values across the area which should largely keep things in check. The northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads should have the best chances for any convection due to some breaks in higher CIN values. Temperatures will warm after the disturbance clears and expect our next shot of summer weather by Tuesday. Unfortunately, heat indices will be in the 110-115 degree range across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country Tuesday through Thursday. Therefore, heat stress related impacts will likely occur and the proper preparations should be done in advance. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to become mainly VFR overnight with some convection around 00Z-06Z Saturday. If storms materialize expecting a low (chance <30%) with storms moving from west to east. Some storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds as threats. Have some IFR CIG's overnight/early morning for eastern sites, otherwise VFR conditions should return tomorrow afternoon accompanied by winds gusting to around 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure to the east and low pressure to the west has strengthened our onshore flow this afternoon so that a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 100 AM Saturday Morning. However, the high pressure will nose into the Coastal Bend overnight allowing the flow to weaken. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through late next week with seas around 3-6 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 88 75 87 / 20 20 10 20 Victoria 73 87 73 85 / 30 10 30 30 Laredo 76 94 75 91 / 40 20 30 40 Alice 74 91 74 89 / 20 20 20 30 Rockport 75 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20 Cotulla 76 94 75 89 / 40 10 40 40 Kingsville 74 89 75 88 / 20 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 85 76 85 / 20 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ255-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...BF/80 ####018003363#### FXUS64 KMEG 032339 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 639 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Active weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next 7 days or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day as upper level disturbances move through. There is the potential for organized weather towards the middle of next week as a low pressure system moves into the region. Temperatures will likely remain near normal due to clouds and storms each day. Expect highs around in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mostly dry day across the Mid-South at this hour. Two decaying MCSs moved into the area this afternoon, but didn't produce much convective activity as previous model guidance suggested. The most active weather is currently near the Alabama and Mississippi stateline, where a cluster of slow-moving strong storms have congealed. Hi-res models continue to struggle with shower and thunderstorm coverage across the region. The latest thinking is that this activity will continue to slowly lift northeast through sundown and taper off after sundown with the loss of daytime heating. Weak southwest flow aloft will persist through early next week. This will allow several weak perturbations to translate through the region. This weather pattern will continue to pose a challenge for nearly all model guidance, as steering flow will be weak and not well resolved. Using a more probabilistic approach is likely the best scenario here, however the 12Z HREF is not showing much in the way of precipitation for Saturday. Nonetheless, went with the NBM, which keeps 40 to 60 PoPs over the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon. Convective coverage looks a bit better on Sunday as a weak cold front and shortwave move into the region. Organized weather appears more likely by the middle of next week, as a large upper low ejects through the Central Plains. Subtle height falls will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, where a Day 5 Slight Risk has been introduced north of I-40. A better chance of strong to severe storms appears to be next Wednesday into Thursday, where a surface low will track to our northwest. Still a bit early to sort out specific details, as synoptic model guidance still has timing and feature differences. A cold front looks to move through by late week and bring cooler and drier air to the region for next weekend. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Occasional MVFR CIGS will linger across the airspace this evening. Later tonight, CIGS will eventually lower to IFR with the potential for reduced VIS to MVFR to IFR at various terminals. There is some potential that VIS will lower to LIFR conditions per latest guidance, but confidence in this scenario is low for now. Eventual improvement to VFR is expected across the airspace by late tomorrow morning or afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JPR ####018006045#### FXUS61 KCTP 032340 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 740 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin this afternoon mainly in western PA as clouds increase -Noticeable cool down over the weekend with overcast skies and periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Radar loop at 2330Z shows dwindling, diurnally-driven convection moving into the western part of the forecast area, as it encounters a more stable air mass over the Allegheny Plateau. Expect this trend to continue into the evening hours, with a lingering chance of a shower over the Alleghenies. The focus later tonight shifts to the potential of additional showers linked to a mid level vort max lifting into Southwest PA from the Ohio Valley. Surging pwats, combined with the arrival of this feature will bring an increased chance of showers over primarily the southwest portion of the forecast area late tonight. An increasingly moist east/southeast flow off of the Atlantic, combined with upslope flow, will likely yield developing stratus along the spine of the Appalachians late tonight. Low temps will be above early May climo and range between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to Warren County. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA on Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM. The current thinking is most areas will remain in the mid to low 50s given the easterly flow. No risk of thunder on Saturday so removed from wx grids and changed character of precip to rain from showers. No major changes to the Sunday fcst were made other than increasing rain PoPs through early Sunday morning. Rain/showers continue through Sunday and into Sunday night with highs recovering 5-10F over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA. Some isolated convection is possible in this area Sunday PM as the warm sector shifts to the east. Despite the relatively high moisture availability, limited rain rates should keep blended mean QPF btwn 0.50-1.00 inches ending 00Z Monday. Fcst lows Sunday night will be +10-15F above climo for early May in the 50-60F range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will be dominated by WSW flow aloft. Sfc boundaries linger overhead/nearby the state for the entire period. Several successive shots of shortwaves should slide overhead, likely the remnants of a very active/stormy time over the central plains. Thankfully, the expected severe weather in the middle of the country is not expected to extend this far to the east on most (if any of the) days. However, we do get the forcing provided by the repeated MCSs. These things are highly difficult to track and anticipate the timing of arrival, too, 4-7 days out. The ECMWF does push the boundary south of PA enough for Tues to be dry. But...the GFS and importantly, the blend of models, never let go of 30-80 PoPs. Gulf moisture really never gets totally cut off from reaching the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic States, but does diminish somewhere in the vicinity of PA. Thus, there is high confidence of a wet period during the entire long term, esp for srn PA, but extremely low confidence in timing of each successive wave. PoPs >30pct will remain for each 12hr period, as there is no model or conceptual consensus to dip that low. They also won't go above 80 pct for much the same reason. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Heating popping a few taller cu from N of IPT to UNV to JST. So, much of the area should be VFR for the next 6-12 hrs. None of these have more than the faintest of returns on radar at 18Z. A strong shortwave/area of positive forcing is approaching from the west and is carrying a broach patch of SHRA but no TS just yet. Outflow boundary moving toward BFD from the NW and earlier convection has dropped the temps and turned the wind to the N/NW over NErn PA (ERI/GKJ) already. Only small cu are seen along the boundary as it moves southeastward early this aftn. The heating of the day should provide just enough kick to help storms occur in wrn PA (perhaps even into JST and BFD before 21Z). The stability in the lowest 5kft overhead should keep storms from moving too deep/far eastward into the central mtns (UNV/AOO). We have fairly high confidence in a no TS fcst for IPT/MDT/LNS at this point. Still, the SHRA do progress eastward all night, and may make it into those terminals by 12Z. Have only mentioned VCTS for BFD and JST at this point with low (30pct) confidence that they will have a TSRA for long enough to justify a categorical period with TS occurring as the prevailing wx type. Low clouds and some fog will develop in many places overnight due to increasingly humid air and a near-constant SErly llvl wind. LIFR looks probable (80%) at JST and IFR probably (80%) at BFD, AOO, UNV beginning in the middle to latter period of the night. Will hold off on mentioning any IFR cigs/vsby at the eastern terminals for now. Sat looks unsettled, too. Widespread light SHRA are expected for the srn terminals for all of Sat, and the IFR may linger for the SWrn terminals and may creep into MDT/LNS, too. BFD may actually be the best location for flying into/out from on Sat when compared to the other central PA terminals. Outlook... Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA. Mon-Wed...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...Dangelo A VIATION...Dangelo