####018010000#### FXUS63 KLOT 032342 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 642 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry and cool night is in store with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s. - Tomorrow (Saturday) will be warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and increasing chances (60 to 70%) for showers and thunderstorms in the evening especially across northern Illinois. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances next week, with some potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Through Saturday night: A surface high pressure system continues to meander through the Lower Great Lakes region and is leading to mostly sunny skies, light north to northeasterly winds, and generally pleasant temperatures (at least away from Lake Michigan). With our area on the western flank of the surface high tonight, quiet conditions will prevail. Light winds, clear skies, and a dry airmass will facilitate efficient radiational cooling and allow for overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow, low-level flow will turn southeasterly and eventually southwesterly as the surface high pulls further away to the east and an upper-level short-wavelength trough approaches from the west. Low- level moisture advection will allow for humid air across central Illinois and Indiana to quickly return northward and into our area by mid-afternoon. Even with filtered sunshine, the advection of a plume of seasonably warm 850mb temperatures near +13C (into which the boundary layer will build) will help boost afternoon highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase during the afternoon hours in two apparent waves. The first will be with an axis of remnant convection (originating from the Plains tonight), due to arrive sometime in our area early tomorrow afternoon. An ensemble of CAM guidance suggests the leading axis of showers and storms may outrun the best forcing provided by the upper-level shortwave and an associated cold front lagging to the west, and fight a pocket of dry mid-level air in place across the Lower Great Lakes. As a result, chances for showers and storms appear higher later in the afternoon and toward evening along the cold front as it moves across the area (50 to 70% chance from west to east ahead of the cold front). With the upper-level shortwave and associated jet streak expected to lift northeastward toward the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (e.g. remain somewhat displaced from the instability axis further to the south across our area), any convective cell tomorrow afternoon and evening should behave in a "pulse" like fashion with overall limited storm-scale organization. As a result, the main threats with any storm tomorrow will be locally gusty winds, small hail, downpours, and lightning strikes, similar to yesterday (and consistent with a level 1/5 threat for severe weather). In all, tomorrow looks like another quintessential spring-like day. Coverage of showers and storms will decrease after sunset as the cold front approaches northwestern Indiana. Temperatures behind the front will fall into the upper 40s (northwest) to mid 50s (southeast) early Sunday morning as northwesterly winds become predominant. Borchardt Sunday through Friday: Next week is shaping up to be a fairly wet and active pattern. Starting Sunday, as an upper level low drops southward into Northern California from the Bay of Alaska (more on this later), a surface low over Hudson Bay is forecasted to continue to move east drawing the cold front east out of the forecast area. There may be some lingering showers on Sunday morning, particularly over northwest Indiana, but potentially extending as far back to I-55. However, improving and drier conditions are expected through Sunday. Temperatures are expected in the upper 60s and 70s away from the lake, but with cooler northerly air over Lake Michigan, the immediate shoreline may remain in the 50s. On Monday, the low over Northern California is expected to weaken slightly and passes over the Rocky Mountains. Ahead of of it, another upper level wave will pass over Northern Illinois. Models are disagreeing on the overall strength of the wave. The GFS is leaning deeper with an brief closed low aloft developing, where the Euro and the Canadian depict broader waves. Moisture availability seems limited though over most of the area north of I-80. With some weak lobes of vorticity that pass over, there is a chance for some light showers to pass over, but confidence remains low as it should mostly stay south of the area as temperatures warm back into the 70s, with low 60s on the shoreline. There is fairly good model agreement that the upper level low will eject out of the Rockies over west central Montana overnight Monday into Tuesday morning while deepening. Strong surface cyclogenesis is expected to take place in the Northern Plains on Tuesday; however, where and how the low develops will largely drive what unfolds on Tuesday, and models are wildly disagreeing on that. There is a strong 300 mb jet that will develop just to the south of the upper level low, with its left exit region around or just north of northeastern Illinois, which will could assist in providing additional synoptic lift, though the exact placement of the jet will have to be monitored over time. But even models are disagreeing with the strength of the jet in addition to its exact placement. Regardless, strong mid level steering flow will draw up anomalously large precipitable water values into Illinois with dew points temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s. After a weak boundary pushes through Tuesday morning providing the first chance for rain, temperatures are projected to increase behind the front into the upper 70s and 80s. With better instability, showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. While models are suggesting the strongest shear and instability a little farther south in Central Illinois and the Ohio River basin, there is the potential for strong to even severe storms locally on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the upper level low over the Northern Plains is projected to eventually start to weaken; however, a positively tilted trough axis will remain over Plains. With persistent southerly warm air advection, there is a risk for another round of showers and storms on Wednesday. Once again though, models are still keeping higher moisture content and stronger instability to the south over the Ohio River Valley as the jet core aloft shifts slightly over Southern Wisconsin. Perhaps the risk for stronger to severe storms will remain south of I-80 on Wednesday, but it will be close enough to be monitored. Beyond Thursday, there is much more uncertainty on exact timing of showery activity. However, both Euro and GFS ensembles are suggesting the upper level trough to continue to broaden and trudge eastward from Thursday through Sunday. With lingering moisture in the area and lobes of vorticity passing around the upper level trough, there could be periods of showers from Thursday through Saturday. It is not expected to be a complete wash out as there should be breaks from the rain at times, but it remains too far out for complete understanding on timing, so the forecast maintained a 20 to 40 percent chance for rain through Saturday morning. DK && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Low chance for shallow fog tonight into Saturday morning - Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, a few of which could produce gusty winds and hail High pressure will remain overhead tonight which will promote mostly to completely clear skies and light easterly winds generally under 5 kts. However, there is a small chance (<10%) for some shallow fog to develop late tonight into early Saturday morning as low-level moisture begins to increase, primarily outside of the Chicago terminals. Furthermore, there is a signal amongst some guidance that low stratus may develop over southern Lake Michigan and advect into northeast IL Saturday morning, but given lake temperatures in the low to mid-50s and the warmer airmass forecast to move over the lake confidence is very low on these clouds occurring. Winds will become southeasterly Saturday morning and then southwesterly Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front which will allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but conditions do look at least modestly favorable for a few stronger storms which may produce locally gusty winds and/or hail. While confidence on showers/storms is relatively high, forecast soundings do show some capping in place which may limit storm coverage. Therefore, have decided to handle this potential with PROB30s at ORD, MDW, and RFD for now. It should be noted that while I do expect showers and storms to be a concern for DPA and GYY, the arrival of storms is forecast to be after the conclusion of their respective TAF periods. Thus, have maintained dry forecasts at DPA and GYY but will need to add showers/storms with the 06z issuance. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018010515#### FXUS61 KBOX 032343 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 743 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather with cooler onshore breezes through Saturday. A slow-moving frontal boundary brings clouds and rain showers on Sunday into early Monday, along with a period of cooler high temperatures. Though clouds and off and on showers may linger in southeast New England in vicinity of the slowing front, drier weather prevails for most of interior Southern New England. Turning warmer on Tuesday with abundant sunshine, and though temperatures will be significantly cooler near the coast, interior areas could see high temperatures reach near 80 degrees. Our next chance for rain is around midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 740 PM Update: Tranquil early-evening underway across Southern New England, governed by a 1024 mb high pressure area located in the waters east of Ipswich Bay. This high pressure remains generally stationary over at least the next 24 hours, maintaining dry weather but with an increase in cirrus/high clouds as the evening progresses. Used some of the RAP to show a decrease in sky cover for most of the evening, thus pleasant conditions for any Friday evening outdoor plans. However the fly in the ointment arrives by the pre-dawn hrs and mainly in eastern MA, in the form of marine-layer stratus which is evident in satellite imagery over Nova Scotia and the Bay of Fundy. These low clouds should gradually build/spread southwestward through the Gulf of Maine into Cape Cod and the adjacent eastern coastal waters toward daybreak. Think greatest extent of low cloud cover should be restricted to the immediate eastern MA coast, with scattered lower clouds further inland to around central MA/RI by daybreak. Low temps in the low-mid 40s seem on track for now with expectation of generally clear skies for most of the evening, with cooling likely not to be impeded by advancing stream of high clouds. Previous discussion: Good amount of wind shear visible on the satellite this afternoon with mid level clouds moving NE to SW and upper level cirrus moving NW to SE this afternoon. As for those mid clouds, the May sun is helping to increase our breaks of sun but partly cloudy is about the best we can hope for in much of southern New England for the rest of the day. By the overnight hours we'll see some marginal clearing of both mid and high clouds, especially after midnight, but fully clear skies aren't expected. Even so, given the high overhead and calm winds, did lower temps a but to account for some potential to radiate. Lows bottom in the low to mid 40s; right around average for early May. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure nudges further south into New England from Nova Scotia bringing continued quiet weather for the first half of the weekend. This means continued cool, moist onshore flow from the northeast so low clouds will be moving in from the northeast while high clouds move in from the southwest. High temperatures won't be too different than Friday, with the warmest spot (the CT valley) in the upper 60s and the coolest spot (eastern MA) in the mid 50s. Cloudcover continues to increase overnight as deeper moisture (PWATs over 1 inch) move into western SNE on SW flow ahead of the approaching system. However, rain should hold off until after 8am. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights: * Cloudy, cooler with rain on Sunday into early Mon, with continued lighter showers on Mon for southeast New England. * Dry and turning mild on Tue, though cooler onshore flow near the coasts. Spot 80s in the CT Valley? * Next chance for rains around midweek (Wed/Thu), though still unclear which day has the higher rain chances. Details: Sunday and Monday: The 12z suite of guidance continues to come into better congruence regarding our next chance for steadier light rains associated with a passing frontal boundary and a rather disorganized 500 mb trough. Chances for rain increase during the morning in most areas, with the period of greatest rain chances focused during the Sunday afternoon to early Monday morning period as the frontal boundary slowly shifts eastward. With the front becoming parallel to the 500 mb flow with time as we move into the early Monday period, expect lingering rain showers during the morning hrs along the RI/MA South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands. Further north and west, we should see dry weather but with a mix of clouds and sun. Overall not a soaking rain, but enough to likely put a damper on outdoor plans for many on Sunday, with rain showers lingering into Monday for the southeast New England coastal areas. To that end, model-ensemble probabilistic QPF assessment shows high (70-90%) probs of 24 hr rain totals over a tenth of an inch, but lower to moderate (25-50%) probs for rain amts at or over a half inch. Official forecast has rain amts around a quarter to third of an inch. Expect Sunday to be a cooler day with cloud cover and rains around, with narrower diurnal range in high and low temps. Highs Sunday in the mid 50s, and lows in the upper 40s to near 50. High temps are more challenging on Monday with more clouds south of the Mass Pike and especially near southern coast, with some sunny breaks further north. Highs along the southern coast probably struggle to reach 60, but you don't have to go much further inland before highs reach into the low to mid 70s; with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Tuesday: High pressure over interior northern New England governs weather conditions into Southern New England Tuesday, supplying dry weather and mostly sunny conditions. An early look at model forecast soundings in interior MA/CT show potential for temperatures to overachieve guidance with progged deep mixing; with 850 mb temps around +7 to nearly +10C, highs could reach around 80 degrees in the CT Valley with readings well into the 70s eastward into RI and into the MA coastal plain. Northeast flow near the coast will keep temps several degrees cooler than well inland though, in the mid to upper 60s. Very difficult to show that level of granular detail given model-resolution limitations at this forecast time horizon and utilized some of the bias-corrected temperature fields given a similar regime. Did note NBM was advertising some low PoPs in this period for spot showers, but feel this is pretty overdone given progged mixing. Wednesday and Thursday: Though this period offers the next best chance for rain associated with an elongated warm front from low pressure over the Plains states, there is more uncertainty in timing when chances are greatest. Really will need those uncertainties to become more in clearer focus before delving into specifics. Didn't make too many adjustments to NBM in this period, except capped PoPs at the higher end of Chance range (40-50%) given stated timing uncertainties. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight: High confidence. VFR with increasing stream of high clouds. Could see patchy mist/fog develop mainly in eastern/northeast MA but too unlikely to mention in the TAF. Toward daybreak, advancing SCT-OVC marine stratus at VFR/MVFR levels and while there's stronger confidence of MVFR bases over the Cape and Islands, it may lie just offshore of the remaining portion of the eastern MA coastline. Light E winds (light/variable at times), before trending NE/ENE around 6-10 kt by daybreak. Tomorrow...Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR may improve to VFR for much of the day. Some uncertainty here given we are still stuck in persistent onshore easterly flow at 5-10 kts. Confidence higher for VFR away from eastern MA coastline. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR, with marine stratus nearing BOS after 09z; outside chance at MVFR bases early Sat AM but should trend more BKN VFR levels. Light east winds tonight (variable at times) before becoming ENE around 10 kt starting early Sat. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR, light southerly winds becoming light easterly early Sat AM. Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine This evening through Saturday night... High pressure supports fairly calm conditions across the coastal waters through Saturday night. Winds will prevail out of the northeast from 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas generally 1 to 3 feet. Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW NEAR TERM...Loconto/BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/BW MARINE...Loconto/BW ####018004378#### FXUS63 KICT 032343 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 643 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms moving east-southeast across the region tonight through early Saturday. - Additional rain/embedded thunderstorm chances over mainly southern and southeast Kansas later Saturday night through Sunday. - Severe weather potential Monday afternoon-night. - Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A strong cold front will drive southeast through the region late tonight through Saturday morning, trailing from potent shortwave energy traversing the northern half of the CONUS. The strong frontal forcing in concert with returning low-level moisture/instability should support a few clusters of scattered to numerous thunderstorms marching east-southeast across the region overnight through early Saturday. The combination steep mid-level lapse rates, modest instability and modest effective deep layer shear will support a lower-end severe weather threat, especially generally northwest of the KS Turnpike corridor before about 3 AM. Thinking the strongest activity will be capable of dime to half- dollar size hail, 50-65 mph winds , and locally heavy rainfall. Since this activity will likely be fairly progressive, widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely, although patchy amounts up to around one inch are possible, especially northwest of the KS Turnpike. Rain/storm chances will gradually exit southeast Kansas to the east Saturday morning. It will feel rather chilly Saturday morning in wake of this front, given the breezy/gusty north winds and early morning temperatures in the 40s-50s. Breezy north winds and below average temperatures will prevail through the rest of Saturday, with highs reaching the 60s for most. Another round of rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected later Saturday night through Sunday, as an upper trough traverses the Southern Plains. Latest model consensus keeps the greatest rain chances over mainly southern to southeast Kansas with this next system. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall looks to be from near the KS/OK border on south. The severe weather threat looks minimal over Kansas given poor lapse rates and marginal instability, although perhaps small hail may accompany the strongest activity. Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday afternoon-night across the region, as a potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the Central and Southern Plains. The thermodynamic and kinematic environments favor severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, given the anomalous combination of buoyancy/shear. However, there remains uncertainty on the timing, amplitude, and placement of various synoptic features, which will play a vital role in the potential magnitude of severe weather Monday afternoon-night. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details the next few days. After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly quiet weather across the Kansas region through at least the end of next week, with a gradual cooling trend through the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Main aviation concern remains overnight storm chances. Cold front is currently making its way across the Central Plains and currently stretches from central Nebraska into northwest KS. Storms have developed along the front and will continue to track east/southeast. Currently expecting them to reach KRSL-KGBD in the 03-04z time frame and KHUT-KSLN-KICT in the 07-08z range. Strong wind gusts and hail up to quarter size look like the main threat with these storms. By 12z Sat, storms should be tracking through the Flint Hills and southeast KS. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...RBL ####018011761#### FXUS65 KABQ 032344 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 544 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe weather is possible this afternoon in far eastern New Mexico and again tomorrow afternoon and evening in the southeast. Dry, warm, and windy weather begins Sunday and persists through Wednesday, creating widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The 1pm SPC mesoanalysis across northeast NM shows an area of low level convergence with MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear values close to 30 kt, lifted indices near -6C, and surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Convective initiation along the I-25 corridor between Las Vegas and Raton will develop upstream into this airmass thru late afternoon where SPC still has a Marginal Risk for severe storms. 'Severe Weather Outlook' timing shows the main threat window for damaging wind and large hail impacts between about 2pm and 8pm from Clayton to Clovis. These storms will move east/northeast into TX after sunset. Low level return flow then deepens westward across eastern NM thru midnight followed by a strong backdoor cold front overnight. Northerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected thru sunrise across northeast and east-central NM. This boundary will allow a few more showers and perhaps a couple storms to develop overnight, along with widespread low stratus for eastern NM by sunrise. There is high likelihood the front will also push thru gaps in the central mt chain and allow for a period of perhaps moderate canyon winds in ABQ. Gusts up to 50 mph may occur immediately downwind of Tijeras Canyon. The focus then shifts to a potential second round of severe weather across southeast NM Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will veer out of the east then southeast thru the day across eastern NM with the deepest moisture and instability persists over Chaves, Roosevelt, and perhaps Curry counties. A 70-80kt upper level speed max will approach from the southwest and allow bulk shear values to increase over 45kt. The latest SPC outlook now has a Slight Risk for severe storms over parts of Roosevelt and Chaves counties. The main threat window will occur between 2pm and 8pm with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat again. There is however a small tornado probability in this area compared to today. The Marginal Risk area was also extended farther west where a few strong storms may occur around Santa Rosa to Tucumcari and Ft Sumner. Meanwhile, sufficient mid level moisture with low level southeasterly flow, orographics, and daytime heating across northern NM will allow for a few showers and storms to develop during the afternoon. This activity is more on the wet/dry side and will be capable of producing brief rain with strong gusty winds. Showers and storms may continue through late Saturday evening across eastern NM followed by more low stratus and perhaps some patchy fog. Moderate gap winds will return to the Rio Grande Valley as well with potential for gusts up to 50 mph again below Tijeras Canyon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry southwest flow takes over Sunday out ahead of a trough, increasing wind speeds and dropping dewpoints. Despite winds trending down somewhat, patchy blowing dust is still likely across the lower elevations of western and central NM. On the other hand, winds have trended stronger during the Sunday night/early Monday time frame along a Pacific cold front that will sweep across the state from west to east. Moisture looks to be just deep enough for some showers across the northwest along the front, but precipitation amounts are expected to remain below 0.1". Monday will be both drier and cooler than Sunday in the wake of the front, with temps a few to as much as 10 degrees below seasonal averages. The strongest winds on Monday will focus along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains thanks to the development of a ~996 sfc low in the TX Panhandle. Troughing hangs around over the High Plains Monday through Wednesday, allowing zonal flow to persist across central and northern NM. 700 mb winds won't be anomalously strong, but the combination of sunny skies and unidirectional westerly flow will efficiently mix stronger winds down to the surface during the afternoon hours. High temps each day will hover near seasonal averages. It looks like the critical fire weather pattern will finally break down late in the week as the High Plains trough moves eastward into the Great Lakes region. That being said, guidance is in disagreement on how quickly this transitions will occur. Storm chances will favor the northeast corner of the state late in the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The last of the thunderstorms have moved east of the state line early this evening. Late this evening and overnight, a backdoor cold front will quickly press southward across eastern NM. Northerly wind gusts between 25 and 30kt will be possible. MVFR cigs are expected to develop across east central and southeast NM toward sunrise Saturday while the front pushes westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain. East canyon wind gusts near 35 to 40kt will be possible at KABQ. An Airport Weather Warning will likely be needed. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across far east central and southeast NM Saturday afternoon. Some storms may be severe with large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Marginal critical fire weather conditions will continue over western NM thru Saturday while eastern NM sees greater chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall. A mixture of wet/dry showers and storms is possible for the northern mts Saturday. Slightly better moisture trending into this area may allow for some small wetting footprints rather than the dry storms previously expected. However, activity along the western periphery within the Jemez and San Juan/ Tusas range may be drier. An extended period of critical to locally extreme fire weather is expected to begin Sunday as an upper level trough progresses slowly east across the southern Rockies. The strongest winds are focused on Sunday with gusts of 45 to 55 mph with single digit humidity and high Haines. A cold front moving thru Sunday night and Monday may bring some brief relief to far northwest NM however the rest of the area will stay windy with single digit humidity. More critical fire weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday before a potential pattern change toward lighter winds and higher humidity arrives for parts of the area Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 37 78 42 75 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 74 34 72 / 0 30 5 0 Cuba............................ 36 71 38 73 / 0 20 5 0 Gallup.......................... 34 75 36 74 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 71 39 71 / 0 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 74 34 75 / 0 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 39 74 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 74 47 76 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 41 71 42 71 / 0 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 32 77 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 67 33 67 / 0 40 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 67 46 71 / 0 30 10 0 Pecos........................... 40 66 41 72 / 0 30 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 64 39 67 / 0 40 20 0 Red River....................... 29 60 32 63 / 0 50 30 5 Angel Fire...................... 24 60 28 65 / 0 40 30 10 Taos............................ 31 71 35 72 / 0 30 20 0 Mora............................ 34 63 36 70 / 0 30 30 10 Espanola........................ 43 77 45 78 / 0 30 10 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 70 46 74 / 0 30 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 73 44 77 / 0 20 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 75 50 79 / 0 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 77 52 81 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 79 49 83 / 0 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 78 48 81 / 0 10 5 0 Belen........................... 46 81 46 84 / 0 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 79 48 82 / 0 10 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 44 80 45 83 / 0 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 45 79 47 82 / 0 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 80 44 83 / 0 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 48 73 48 78 / 0 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 78 49 81 / 0 10 5 0 Socorro......................... 51 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 67 46 72 / 0 20 10 0 Tijeras......................... 43 70 44 75 / 0 20 10 0 Edgewood........................ 43 70 44 77 / 0 10 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 71 39 77 / 0 10 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 64 40 73 / 0 10 20 0 Mountainair..................... 43 70 44 75 / 0 10 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 72 42 75 / 0 5 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 79 49 79 / 0 5 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 71 46 72 / 0 10 20 5 Capulin......................... 38 60 40 68 / 10 10 20 10 Raton........................... 37 67 39 74 / 5 20 20 10 Springer........................ 39 67 41 75 / 0 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 38 64 40 73 / 0 20 30 10 Clayton......................... 41 63 44 74 / 30 5 30 20 Roy............................. 44 65 45 73 / 10 10 40 20 Conchas......................... 51 71 51 81 / 10 10 60 10 Santa Rosa...................... 49 68 49 78 / 5 10 40 10 Tucumcari....................... 49 68 49 79 / 20 20 60 20 Clovis.......................... 51 70 51 79 / 10 30 60 10 Portales........................ 52 72 52 81 / 5 40 60 10 Fort Sumner..................... 49 73 50 81 / 10 20 50 10 Roswell......................... 55 80 55 87 / 0 20 40 0 Picacho......................... 48 75 49 83 / 0 10 20 0 Elk............................. 46 79 47 81 / 0 10 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105- 106-109-120>122-124. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ123. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...34 ####018005018#### FXUS62 KILM 032344 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 744 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low pressure. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal system. && .UPDATE... No changes to the forecast with the mid evening update. Next several hours the forecast is fog oriented and with inherited good coverage...it's probably a fool's gold to fine tune but will take a second look later. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Persistent low level south-southeasterly flow will lead to another night of saturation near ground level. Best chance for fog, potentially dense, will be across the Cape Fear region and possibly parts of coastal northeast SC. Confidence in fog development decreases further inland as edge of mid/high level cloud deck will be across western parts of the CWA. May be more low stratus inland vs the expected fog closer to the coast. Regardless, any fog/stratus will clear after sunrise. Temps will be only slightly lower on Saturday, with highs in the low 80s. Main forecast problem in the near term is rain chances beginning midday Saturday and continuing through the day. There is going to be a rather sharp moisture gradient in the vicinity of I-95 during the day Saturday, with 1.6" PWAT to the west and near an inch at the coast. This is mainly due to rather dry mid levels around offshore ridge, with 20% RH at 700mb at the coast tomorrow afternoon. Current thinking is scattered storms (40-50% chance) possible across western parts of the CWA beginning midday, with upper level impulses moving across from the SW around ridge offshore and trough to the NNW. How far inland that intrusion of mid level dry air gets will determine edge of best rain chances. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Pulses of shortwave energy overhead paired with localized lower pressure leads to shower/storm chances through the short term period. Sat night the coast could remain dry before moisture starts to recover late. The axis of better moisture will push into the area along with the shortwave Sun with continued chances for convection, particularly during the afternoon and along the sea breeze. The shortwave will move offshore Sun night with activity expected to wind down overnight. Another shortwave approaches Mon with greater precip chances with the addition of instability. Highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain chances continue through Tues where one last push of energy moves through aloft before ridging builds in for midweek with quiet weather. Under this ridge, highs will increase into the 90s with humid conditions. No heat advisory concerns with the current forecast. High temp records for Wilmington NC and Florence SC are a couple degrees above what is in the forecast for Wed and Thurs, so this heat will be something to keep an eye on. Rain chances return late Thurs through the end of the period with an approaching frontal system. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pseudo persistence forecast with early morning fog/restrictions all but a given once again. Outside of these few hours VFR conditions will persist and or develop. Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly diurnal convection will bring brief visibility restrictions in heavy rain Saturday through Monday, especially inland affecting KFLO and KLBT. Lightning is also possible. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions continue through Saturday courtesy of offshore high pressure. Seas linger in the 1-2 ft range tonight and tomorrow, combination of 1-2 ft SE wind wave and 1 ft E swell. South-southeast winds persist, predominantly less than 10 kts outside of localized sea breeze enhancement Saturday afternoon. May see some patchy fog close to the Cape Fear coastline early Saturday morning, but confidence is low on how low visibilities may get and how far offshore any fog may impact. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Flow around the Bermuda high will lead to SE to SW flow through the period. Sub-SCA conditions with wind speeds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft increasing to 3-4 ft Wed with an increasing southerly wind wave and some long period swells from the E/NE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...15 MARINE...VAO/LEW