####018005799#### FXUS64 KHUN 032349 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 649 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Pop up summer like convection has begun to develop across the area with the highest coverage of scattered showers currently in NW AL. With an incredibly moist tropical air mass in place, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will easily be supported through the evening ahead of the next shortwave. Higher coverage of showers and storms will move in from the SW as as the aformentioned shortwave ripples NE through the area. Higher rainfall chances look to pick up around 5 PM in NW AL and around 8 PM in NE AL. Uncertainty remains in coverage of showers and storms as the shortwave moves through. What seems likely at this point is a cluster of scattered rain and storms moving into NW AL and continuing east throughout the night. CAMS continue to diverge on solutions with the passage of the shortwave with some models showing widespread light to moderate rain and others showing corridors of heavier rain for same and dry conditions for others. With such a moist boundary layer and a few hundred J/KG of CAPE all storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Areas that do see better storm coverage will likely see high convective rainfall rates that could produce ponding of water and localized nuisance flooding in urban and flood prone areas. The shortwave and associated showers and storms looks to move out in the early morning hours with low rain chances lingering into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday, and the remainder of the short term, offers the same forecast challenges. A weak syntopic pattern remains in place with broad mid level ridging to our east allowing for subsequent shortwaves to ripple through the area. The passage of a shortwave tomorrow afternoon will again trigger our highest chances and highest coverage of rain and storms. Once again, tricky pop up convection remains a possibility starting in the late morning ahead of the shortwave. This pattern continues on Sunday into Monday as a mid level trough in the Plains pushes at least two more shortwaves through the area. This will maintain medium to high PoPs across the CWA with highest coverage of rain and storms reserved for each afternoon. While each day will pose a threat for frequent lightning and heavy rainfall, no severe weather is anticipated through the duration of the short term. As for anticipated rainfall, overall weekend QPF amounts will likely vary greatly in spatial coverage. With favorable environmental factors in place for efficient rainfall production, showers could easily dump a quarter to a half inch in a brief period of time for isolated areas. While this alone is not enough to raise flooding concerns, periods of heavy rainfall could continue to trigger ponding of water and nuisance flooding for urban area. When it's not raining, the tropical airmass will make for a very humid weekend. Highs remain in the low 80s with dewpoints in the high 60s each day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 After warm frontal convection spreads northeastward and out of the region late Monday morning, the TN Valley will be solidly within a very warm/moist tropical airmass, with dewpoints expected to rise into the m-u 60s as southwesterly low-level flow strengthens. Although this will contribute to greater instability (especially during the afternoon hours), a mid-level ridge will shift across the region downstream from the central Rockies upper low as it begins to spread northeastward into the northern Plains, and this should yield a lower coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Overnight lows will steadily increase into the u60s-l70s through the middle of next week (due to both elevated SW winds and moisture advection), with highs also warming into the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s by Wednesday. Although details are unclear at this time range, conditions will become more favorable for convection at the end of the extended period (Wednesday night/Thursday), perhaps in the form of MCS activity that may initiate along a cold front to our northwest and propagate southeastward into the local area. Should this scenario materialize, conditions will be favorable for organized severe thunderstorms across our region, with boundary layer dewpoints in the u60s-l70s beneath a belt of mid-level WSW flow of 35-45 knots. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continued across the area, with a general motion to the NE around 15kt. Additional development is possible over the next few hours, with generally dry conditions returning for the late evening and overnight. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected. Before daybreak Sat, there is a risk of patchy fog forming in/near areas that recently received heavy rainfall. Otherwise daytime heating and resultant instability could allow more showers and storms to form Sat afternoon. Given uncertainty on development and where the activity will impact, have a VCTS for the latter portion of the TAF at both terminals. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...RSB ####018005208#### FXUS63 KBIS 032351 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 651 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers continue this evening over much of western and central ND, then mainly across the north overnight. - Temperatures are forecast to warm up through the weekend, with windy conditions on Sunday. - Chances for rain return late Sunday night and continue through the work week. The wettest period will be Monday through Tuesday when most of western and central North Dakota will see medium to high chances (60 to 90 percent) of rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 S/WV mid level trough swinging east-southeast across eastern Montana into western North Dakota continues to generate enough lift to maintain scattered showers across the local area late this afternoon/early this evening. Showers and clouds across the south should dissipate as we cool this evening, with clouds and chances for showers persisting across the north near an inverted sfc trough moving slowly south across the US/Canadian border tonight. Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s where we clear, remaining above freezing where clouds linger tonight. UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Just a quick update to increase shower coverage across southern ND for the next few hours, based on latest radar imagery and trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An upper level low located over southern Ontario will continue to push eastward. Wrap around showers will continue across the northern half of the state. Instability is a bit lacking this afternoon for thunderstorms, but a rumble or two is still possible. Showers will decrease later this evening as instability from daytime heating decreases. Overcast skies from low cumulus has resulted in below normal temperatures with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Breezy winds are being observed across the state from a surface pressure gradient from the aforementioned upper low. A surface trough continues to push across the central half of the state turning winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s across the southwest as surface high pressure passes through the region. High temperatures Saturday will begin to trend upward to near normal as surface high pressure clears out the region and ridging begins to build out west over the Northern Rockies. Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day as temperatures are forecast to climb into the 60s to 70s out west due to the upper level ridge pushing into the region. In addition a strong surface low will move into eastern Montana with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to windy conditions across western and south central North Dakota. Forecast soundings at this time have around 45 kts mixing down to the surface which will result in advisory level winds. This short term warm up will be short lived as another broad trough pushes across Western CONUS. A strong upper level low pressure system will move up from the Rocky Mountains Monday leading to widespread precipitation across the Northern Plains. The NBM has 50 percent chance of 1 inch rain across the Northern half of the state where the deformation band will likely set up. PWATs are pretty impressive for this event with values around 1.1 inches. Heavy rain is possible from stronger storms. However, there are some areas that could see significantly less rain depending on where the dry slot sets up. Thunderstorms are possible as the system first moves into the region. Instability around 500 j/kg which continues to decrease, however 0-500 mb shear is around 40 kts. CSU Machine Learning Program has backed off on severe weather parameters due to the ensembles having decreased instability, but there still is low chance for severe weather Monday. In addition to rain, windy conditions are expected Monday as a strong surface low with a tight pressure gradient moves through the region. Wrap around precipitation will continue through Wednesday leading to showers and cooler conditions. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 50s through the middle of the week. After this system washes out near normal temperatures will continue until potential ridge moves into the region late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR ceilings early this evening at all terminals. MVFR cigs will then develop at KMOT after 06Z early Saturday morning, and possibly at KXWA, KBIS, and KJMS after 12Z. MVFR cigs will slowly improve to VFR late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will taper off after 01Z. Isolated showers remain possible through 02Z, and across the north through tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...NH ####018005410#### FXUS65 KCYS 032351 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 551 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will move through the region by this evening with another round of shower activity in the mountains. Snow levels will remain above 6500 feet. - Breezy to windy, and cooler weather expected for Monday through Wednesday, with isolated to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 As the cold front continues to move east across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, we saw a weaker dryline develop ahead of it stretching from near Cheyenne to Alliance with southerly winds and dewpoints in the upper 40s ahead of it, and north to northwest winds and dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s behind it. A line of thunderstorms developed along it with pockets of 40 knots of shear and CAPE values near 1000 J/kg, but it was quickly undercut by the approaching cold front and died out nearly as fast as it developed. Rawlins saw some moderate to heavy snow showers this morning, and while they are very slowly moving east, they will likely not impact areas east of Interstate-25, producing very little precipitation between the Laramie Valley and the Interstate-25 corridor, including Cheyenne. The primary impacts to areas between the Laramie Valley and the Interstate-25 corridor for the rest of the day will be occasional light rain showers and snow showers possible above 6500 feet, but mainly strong gusty winds with wind gusts 35 to 45 mph possible and colder temperatures tonight. Saturday the trough moves off to the east as a ridge approaches southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska bringing high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with clear skies. Winds will likely be light with south to southeast wind gusts 20 to 30 mph possible across the High Plains. Overall a pleasant, cool Saturday expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Warm day Sunday will transition to a prolonged windy and slightly cooler pattern as a storm system slow churns across Intermountain West beginning Monday and persisting into Wednesday. Looking like there is a chance for elevated winds with intermittent periods of high winds to impact the wind prone areas and much of the I-25 corridor and areas across the Nebraska Panhandle. The long term forecast will begin with a nice day on tap for Sunday as upper level ridging settles across the area allowing for 700mb temperatures to climb into the 7-11C which will translate to afternoon high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s for locations east of the Laramie Range and into the Nebraska Panhandle. Ahead of the next storm system increasing clouds and low level moisture will lead to the development of some high elevation snow showers across Carbon county and the Sierra Madres. Not expecting much in the way of impactful accumulation with these snow showers. A combination of a slow moving and strengthening storm system moving to our south and some lee troughing will be the catalysts from a prolonged period of windy conditions across much of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Not much change regarding the NBM probabilities as they continue to show a period from Monday through Wednesday night where a large swath of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle of seeing a (>80%) chance of seeing wind gusts greater than 40 mph Monday through Wednesday with lower intermittent probabilities of periodically seeing wind gusts up to high wind criteria (>58 mph). The wind prones should see more consistent wind gusts above high wind criteria so if we can stay underneath the jet energy aloft and keep those gradients tight then I'd expect we may begin to issue high wind highlights in the coming forecast updates. The extent of the winds and magnitude as stated above will be the track of the low pressure system to our south as a more southerly shift would pull the bulk of the high winds aloft further south into Colorado and this cut down on both the magnitude and duration of the wind threat. This track to the south would also pull the wrap around moisture out of northern Wyoming and southern South Dakota and shift it more into our area increasing the precipitation chances heading into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR expected for most of our terminals through the forecast period. KAIA will see VCTS through approximately 2-3z this evening, causing MVFR fluctuations. KCDR will have MVFR through approximately 6Z this evening before transitioning to VFR. Wind gusts of 20-30 knots will be present this evening for KCYS and KLAR, but will decrease to 12 knots or less overnight. The NE Panhandle terminals will see elevated wind gusts this evening before transitioning to VRB overnight. Saturday will bring wind gusts up to 20-25 knots for most terminals during the afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LEG LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...BW ####018006609#### FXUS63 KIWX 032353 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 753 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Normal to above normal temperatures through the week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s, cooler near Lake Michigan. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. - There are chances for showers and thunderstorms at times between this afternoon and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 The main surface low pressure associated with an upper level low pressure shifts northeastward into south-central Canada and this pushes a cold front and associated weaker area of vorticity into the forecast area today. Fairly strong low lapse rates, surpassing 8 C/km are noted on the NAM12, but more like 7 C/km on the ECMWF, this afternoon out in front of this eastward moving cold front. Model discrepancy on placement of storm formation is likely as a result of the NAM having a surface boundary advect eastward from Lake Erie on east winds. The HRRR has a more subtle indication of this as well. Cloud cover is a major factor in storm formation this afternoon because the area is without substantial shear. So, storm formation will have a better chance with reduced cloud cover. The area yesterday had some shear to tap into and that likely helped sustain updrafts for that one severe cell to produce marginally severe winds and just sub-severe hail without sufficient mid level lapse rates. Well, today, we are without substantial shear and mid level lapse rates so agree with today's general thunder allotment from SPC. As a result, think gusty winds to 40 or perhaps 50 mph may be possible with storms and perhaps some heavy rain that could lead to ponding or flooding with potentially training storms. Models indicate the main temperature gradient associated with the cold front separates from the moisture gradient and shrinks westward, tonight. As such, could see some fog development, especially in areas where cloud cover scatters and allows for some radiative cooling. Areas west of I-69 would seem to be more conducive to this outcome. It is interesting to see the ECMWF keep its moisture farther to the north and west in an area south of US-24 Saturday morning. Am a little skeptical of its precip output with a lack of forcing around, but will retain slight chance PoPs there. A somewhat better chance for showers and storms occurs Saturday afternoon and evening as a mix of sun and clouds allows for a reinvigoration of instability across the area. The greatest chance for this appears to still be south of US-24 and perhaps an axis west of US-31, but it's much drier over there. For whatever it's worth, the ECMWF does not have any afternoon showers/storms form Saturday afternoon, which is different from the rest of the model suite. With the stalled out baroclinic boundary to our west, models form a weak low pressure on it and that arrives Saturday evening. There will likely be a resurgence of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along that boundary with the return of forcing. Instability looks to stay lower than 1000 J/kg and perhaps even lower than 500 J/kg which would restrict the thunder chance. Mid level lapse rates around 6 C/km may be able to help sustain convective rain overnight into Sunday morning. Highs in the 70s are expected across the area on Saturday. The front moves eastward on Sunday and this likely restricts the thunder chance until Tuesday. Although, times of rain are still possible as weaker areas of vorticity travel along the front. As such will populate some of the time with slight and chance PoPs in the time periods where rain looks the most possible. Sunday and Monday afternoons are the most likely chance PoP periods. A slow lumbering upper low within the Western CONUS trough comes far enough east to affect the area Tuesday. There is some disagreement on medium range guidance if the stalled boundary can move northward as a warm front allowing the area to be in the warm sector. The low level jet is expected to move into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening allowing 30 to 45 kts of effective shear to be an ingredient for developed storms to tap into. With the placement of the front in question, the chance for thunder is also in question. Instability appears to be the limiting factor with 500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE to tap into. 60F sfc dew points and 10C+ 850 dew points will be most possible south of US-24 or US-30, but the ECMWF actually has them over the whole forecast area. Boundary-parallel flow appears possible and various areas of upper jet support may support times of heavy rain from training/ backbuilding convective rain. Continued rain over this unsettled period is going to need to be watched as saturated soils could lead to standing water, especially in the more flood prone and urbanized areas where soil has been converted to less permeable concrete. Either way, both models have a break in precipitation Wednesday morning. The question then becomes, when does the front move back northward again to cause more precipitation. A better chance for this appears to be Wednesday night. This period also appears to have shear and MUCAPE to tap into allowing for the possibility of more showers and thunderstorms that could be severe and produce heavy rain. Chances for rain appear to be lower Thursday with instability being restricted to less than 500 J/kg. Shear is around though so if any thunderstorms are able to form in that meager environment, severe weather could be possible. Still a better chance for drier weather occurs Friday with little to no instability and shear. However, the upper low pressure center nearby may allow for a light shower still. Friday also sees a return to mid to upper 60s for highs, which is normal to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 741 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through most of the forecast period. However, MVFR vsbys possible for KSBN in mist between 12z and 15z Sat and KFWA after 18z Saturday with any afternoon rain/thunderstorms. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Andersen ####018005948#### FXUS64 KTSA 032353 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 653 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A relatively quiet evening is in store across the area after an active week of weather for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A couple isolated terrain induced thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon across parts of northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma as diurnal heating acts on the moist airmass in place. Any storms that do form could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threat. Storms should weaken with the loss of solar heating later this evening and give way to a mild night over the region. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A complex of storms is expected to develop across Kansas this evening and progress east southeastward overnight tonight. the leading edge of this MCS will begin to nudge into parts of northeast Oklahoma by early Saturday morning with some gusty winds possible along the leading edge along with heavy rainfall. Overall, the complex should be in a weakening state as it moves through northeast Oklahoma throughout the rest of the morning hours. Still locally heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger cores with high moisture content over the region. The rest of the day Saturday will see lower chances (20-40%) for some lingering showers and storms in the wake of the decaying MCS and whatever outflow boundaries are leftover from that. Heading into Sunday, increasing chances for widespread showers and storms are expected as a shortwave trough lifts northeastward out of central Texas and tracks across eastern Oklahoma during the day. The severe threat will remain low during this time, but isolated severe potential will exists with the more persistent updrafts. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall on top of already very saturated soils. Rainfall throughout the last week has been in the 5 to 7 inch range for a good chunk of eastern Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is likely for much of the area with locally higher amounts quickly causing concern for flash flooding and flooding of urban or low lying areas due to excessive runoff. It won't take much for flooding to occur, so have opted to issue a Flood Watch for the entire forecast area given the saturated conditions and already high rivers and streams. The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as an upper low ejects out into the Central to Northern Plains and meanders for several days. This will allow for moderately strong westerly to southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the Southern Plains and last through much of the week. Concurrently, a surface cold front will drop southeastward into Kansas and become stalled, while a dryline extend southward into Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will serve as the focus for daily shower and storm chances for much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The strong flow aloft combined with a warm and moist boundary layer will support severe potential with any storms that develop. Monday will be the first day to watch in the period as the main upper trough swings into the Plains. Best storm chances will exist across northern Oklahoma closer to the large scale ascent as an expanding elevated mixed layer (EML) spread over the Southern Plains likely capping convection further south along the dryline. Still, a couple storms will be possible along the dryline with all severe hazards possible. Details will continue to come into better focus as Monday gets closer. The surface front is progged to drop down into eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday, which would enhance shower and storm chances Wednesday afternoon as well. Again, all severe hazards appear possible at this time. Everyday next week through at least Thursday, looks like a day to watch as the environment will be supportive of severe potential each day. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A few isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible for the next hour across NW AR before dissipating with loss of heating. Lower stratus deck will begin to spread north into portions eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning with patchy fog possible across northwest Arkansas. A few storms may move into the KBVO area late tonight. There is some potential for convection that is developing across western Kansas to form a complex with scatted storms impacting portions of northeast Oklahoma around 12Z along outflow boundary. Latest HRRR suggest this activity will likely be weakening by this time. Scattered storms will remain possible through the day Saturday near stalled outflow boundary or with cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 79 60 73 / 30 70 60 80 FSM 64 82 65 76 / 10 40 50 90 MLC 66 81 63 75 / 10 50 70 90 BVO 61 76 55 72 / 40 60 50 80 FYV 61 80 60 74 / 10 50 50 90 BYV 61 80 60 72 / 0 50 40 80 MKO 64 78 62 72 / 20 60 60 90 MIO 61 77 58 71 / 20 70 40 80 F10 63 78 61 72 / 20 70 70 90 HHW 64 78 65 75 / 10 30 60 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12 ####018005023#### FXUS65 KFGZ 032353 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 453 PM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through tomorrow. Winds will start to increase ahead of an incoming low- pressure system on Saturday, peaking on Sunday. Slight chance for isolated showers along the Kaibab on Sunday, elsewhere will remain mostly dry. Elevated winds will continue through much of next week, and warm/dry conditions will persist. && .DISCUSSION...Above normal temperatures, breezy afternoon winds and mostly dry conditions have been our main song and dance for the last several days. Our tune will shift over the weekend, as a strong low-pressure system slides down the Great Basin region. The first indication of this invading pressure system will be increasing winds on Saturday. Look for southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting 25-35 mph, throughout the afternoon. Stronger winds may be present along our Mohave County border, and elevated winds look to continue overnight for many areas along higher terrain. Sunday is when the main impacts of this storm system will unveil. Gusty southwest winds will start around 7AM MST/8AM MDT and continue through at least 9PM MST/10PM MDT. Gusty in this case is referring to sustained winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts between 45-65 mph. Keep in mind, winds might not jump to these high of speeds first thing in the morning, but will continue to increase throughout the morning/afternoon. As a result of these strong winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for much of northern Arizona for Sunday. Hazards may include, but are not limited to, difficult travel for high profile vehicles, power outages, and areas of blowing dust. Strong/damaging winds are not the only point of focus for Sunday though. There is also a near- critical to critical fire weather concern for portions of eastern Arizona. Relative humidity values do increase slightly on Sunday, but even so, there are still some areas that will be very susceptible to rapid fire starts/spreads. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday for areas near Eager, Springerville and St. Johns. This watch is valid between 11AM MST/12PM MDT to 7PM MST/8PM MDT. Check back for any updates to the High Wind Watch and/or the Fire Weather Watch. Early next week, this storm system will push northeast and allow a zonal flow to return over northern Arizona. Temperatures will slowly warm from Sunday, but still remain a couple degree below normal through the middle of next week. Winds will also remain gusty near our eastern border with the exit of the storm system, but typical spring-like breezes should return for much of next week. && .AVIATION...Saturday 04/00Z through Sunday 05/00Z...Expect VFR conditions with scattered mid-level cumulus clouds. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 10-20 kts until 02Z, becoming light and variable overnight through most of Saturday morning. South- southwest winds gradually increasing after 17Z, reaching sustained speeds 15-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/00Z through Tuesday 07/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions will persist but with increasing clouds Saturday night into Sunday, along with a 10-30% chance of light rain showers along/north of a KGCN-KRQE line Sunday afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 15-25 kts Saturday night, strengthening to 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on Sunday. Periods of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE northward for Sunday afternoon. Winds gradually decreasing Sunday night, with west winds 15-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions will persist through Saturday. Saturday will see afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. On Sunday much stronger winds develop becoming southwest at 20 to 30 mph gusting of 40 to 55 mph before noon. Areas prone to downsloping winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday over far east Arizona. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of east central Arizona. Monday through Wednesday...Dry and a bit warmer. Westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 35 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ004>017-039-040. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ114. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018006351#### FXUS65 KPSR 032353 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 453 PM MST Fri May 3 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Slightly above normal temperatures are expected through tomorrow, with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will traverse the Intermountain West this weekend leading to widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday evening and Sunday, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry, warm weather continues across the region today as quasi-zonal flow persists across the southwestern CONUS. Afternoon visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies persisting across the CWA as dry southwesterly flow aloft continues. Through tomorrow, 500 mb heights will remain consistent around 572-575 dm for our area and thus high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today's in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Light winds today will give way to increasingly stronger winds starting tomorrow in response to an approaching weather system that will impact the region this weekend. The aforementioned weather system is currently seen on satellite WV imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. Guidance show this closed low diving southward along the West Coast through the start of the weekend before progressing inland across the Great Basin Sunday. Though the greatest negative height anomalies will remain north of our area, decreasing heights and increasing gradients will promote strong winds and cooler temperatures as we head through the weekend. Strong winds will pick up across southeast California starting tomorrow afternoon/evening, particularly across Imperial County and Joshua Tree National Park where gusts are likely (>80%) to exceed 40 mph at times. Wind Advisories are in effect for these areas and the Wind Advisory for much of Imperial County is now in effect through Sunday evening. Sunday, strong winds will spread across Arizona as the closed low moves inland across the Great Basin while the associated dry cold front moves through the region. Wind gusts are likely (>70%) to climb upwards of 30-40 mph across much of the forecast area, while some areas may see gusts in excess of 40 mph at times, particularly areas across Imperial County and southern Gila County. Additional Wind Advisories may be needed for some areas as we get closer. The strong winds this weekend may lead to the development of dust channels across dust prone areas, which could reduce visibilities and make travel hazardous. Outside of the strong winds, temperatures will fall below normal Sunday, especially across southeast California and southwest Arizona where well below normal highs are only forecast to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with the passage of the cold front. Across south-central Arizona, temperatures won't see as significant of a drop with lower desert highs Sunday in the mid to upper 80s. The closed low will eject to the northeast for the start of the new workweek with lighter winds prevailing across the region. Global ensembles then favor longwave troughing persisting across the western CONUS through much of next week. Temperatures will gradually warm back up near to slightly above normal with daily afternoon highs across lower elevation areas climbing into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2353Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Southerly winds with variability at times and fluctuating speeds are expected through about 00-01Z before W to SW becomes more consistent. Sustained speeds will remain mostly aob 8 kts with a few gusts this evening up to 15-20 kts. Easterly winds should return by 09-10Z tonight. Very similar conditions are forecast for Saturday with southerly variability midday/early-afternoon with late afternoon gusts to around 20 kts. FEW to SCT high clouds will pass over the area at times. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally be southerly through the period at BLH aob 10 kts, while southeasterly winds at IPL are expected to become westerly during the evening hours. Similar conditions are expected through Saturday morning before winds increase in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds at KBLH will increase up to 15-20 kts in the afternoon with peak gusts up to 25-30 kts. Winds will be stronger at KIPL in the late-afternoon and evening with westerly winds up to 20-25 kts and peak gusts in excess of 30 kts. Skies will remain mostly clear through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will persist into this weekend, with light and diurnal winds and typical afternoon breeziness today. Afternoon highs will remain slightly above normal through tomorrow in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Gusty winds will begin to increase across the region in response to an approaching weather system starting Saturday afternoon/evening, particularly across parts of southeast California where gusts are expected to exceed 40 mph at times. Strong winds increase across Arizona heading into Sunday afternoon with gusts across south-central and southwest Arizona climbing upwards of 30-40 mph and some gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph, particularly across southern Gila County. The strong winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this weekend. Min RHs through the weekend will be around 10-20%, while overnight Max RHs will be around 30-60% for most areas. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ560. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ563>567. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...Smith ####018004390#### FXUS63 KTOP 032354 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 654 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -A line of thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across the area tonight into early Saturday morning. There is a low chance for a few damaging wind gusts. -A better chance for severe weather arrives Monday afternoon as a stronger system impacts the central US. All modes of severe weather will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This afternoon, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Wyoming with southwest flow over KS. Surface obs show high pressure centered in eastern Iowa. South-southeast winds are beginning to transport higher dew points back into the area, which will continue as high pressure slides further northeast and low level flow increases this evening. The shortwave over WY will move eastward across the Dakotas this evening and tonight, bringing a cold front across KS. A linear complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop in western Nebraska/Kansas near the boundary this evening, marching eastward into tonight. Instability will initially increase in eastern KS with the theta-e advection this evening, but CIN is also expected to increase as the night progresses and the storms approach. HREF MUCAPE values range from about 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the front, with storms likely along or just behind the instability gradient. Shear still looks to range from about 30-35 kts, helping to maintain storm structure aloft. Given these parameters, strong winds and small hail will be the main concerns with storms as they move through tonight. Lingering post-frontal showers, and gusty northwest winds will be possible through Saturday morning before high pressure brings in a cooler and drier air mass. High temperatures Saturday afternoon look to run about ten degrees cooler than today. Another shortwave trough could then bring precipitation back to the forecast area, but this time from the south. That trough will move across TX and the Red River Valley, then into the Ozarks on Sunday. Instability and moisture will be more limited, so severe weather is not expected. Have also decreased POPs slightly with some deterministic models now keeping most of the area dry. Still think there is at least a slight chance for light QPF mainly south of I-70. A much stronger and more impactful system is still on track for the Monday afternoon/evening timeframe. A deep H5 trough looks to move across the Rockies and take on a negative tilt as it progresses over the High Plains Monday afternoon. Strong southerly flow will quickly transport moisture into the region ahead of a deepening surface low. Instability will build in the warm sector across central and eastern KS in response, with models showing anywhere between 2000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE. With effective bulk shear possibly exceeding 40 kts and 0-3 km SRH above 200 m2/s2, another round of severe weather is anticipated. All modes will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Severe weather is not currently expected for the rest of next week, but a series of shortwave troughs embedded the the flow aloft could at least keep some POPs around through midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The main aviation concern this period is the arrival of thunderstorms overnight, along with a cold front shifting winds to the northwest. Timing of TS may still be adjusted as trends are monitored with the line of storms as it approaches from western/central KS. It's also possible this could be a broken line by the time it reaches TOP/FOE, as it looks like storms will generally weaken as they move west to east into early Saturday morning. MVFR cigs also look to arrive with TS and continue beyond the fropa into afternoon. There may be a brief period of IFR around sunrise, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs. VFR conditions should return in the later part of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Picha