####018004521#### FXUS62 KMFL 032355 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 755 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A rather benign weather pattern remains in place across South Florida today with continued light to moderate easterly flow with surface high pressure to the east. Southwest Florida has the best opportunity for any isolated showers or weak convection with the sea breeze this afternoon. An upper level disturbance advancing towards and into the Florida panhandle tonight will open a small weakness in the upper level flow across the Florida peninsula from Saturday into Saturday night. This weak upper level disturbance combined with an increase in the moisture profile between 850 and 700 mb should induce some slightly greater PoPs during Saturday afternoon into the 20 to 40 percent range. With the continued moderate easterly flow, this activity will be most favored across the interior/western portions of South Florida. Expect for the afternoon highs to top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 The weak upper level disturbance lingers through Sunday atop the Florida peninsula before becoming more diffuse. The 500 mb heights then increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging will build into the region from the west. Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic, maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow across the region. Like Saturday, Sunday will feature around 20 to 40 percent chance for showers and convection across the interior and western portions portions of South Florida. Early next week keeps some isolated opportunities but solely with any lift from the afternoon sea breeze. The PoPs then look to diminish even more into mid to late next week as the upper level ridge strengthens. The temperatures also respond as afternoon highs could reach the mid 90s across interior locations by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Generally VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers will be possible at times along the east coast terminals, but confidence is too low to include at this time. Easterly flow around 10 kts will prevail, with gusts to 20 kts during the day. KAPF will again see a W-SW wind shift during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Besides occasional times of gusty easterly winds, anticipate for marine conditions to stay rather benign through the weekend and entering into early next week. Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. Winds are likely to peak in the 13-18 kts range out of the east and likely induce periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Breezy easterly flow will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the today and this upcoming weekend. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized across the Palm Beach County beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 84 74 84 / 10 20 20 40 West Kendall 70 86 71 85 / 10 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 72 86 72 85 / 10 20 20 40 Homestead 73 83 73 84 / 10 20 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 74 83 74 83 / 20 20 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 73 83 74 83 / 20 20 20 40 Pembroke Pines 73 86 73 86 / 10 20 20 40 West Palm Beach 71 84 72 84 / 20 20 20 40 Boca Raton 73 85 73 85 / 20 20 20 40 Naples 70 88 71 88 / 10 30 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...Culver ####018004917#### FXUS65 KTFX 032356 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 600 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... Lingering showers and snow showers will be around through the early evening ahead of a mild and dry Saturday. Precipitation chances will return Sunday into much of next week, with potential for an impactful spring system over the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday...Transient shortwave ridging is beginning to build in across the Northern Rockies between one upper disturbance exiting eastward across Southern Canada and another approaching the Pacific NW. Lingering northwesterly flow aloft will combine with daytime heating to result in rain and snow showers the remainder of this afternoon and early evening, primarily across the plains. Clearing skies and light winds tonight will allow for patchy fog formation into Saturday morning, but is not expected to pose many impacts at this time. Saturday looks to be a pleasant day as the aforementioned ridge moves overhead, with the only potential blemish being breezy easterly to southeasterly winds across the plains in the afternoon. Daytime highs look to rise to near to a touch above average in most areas. -AM Saturday night into next week...Deep southerly flow aloft develops over Southwest MT Saturday night ahead of a closed low moving onto the Pacific NW coast. This system will trek eastward into S ID on Sunday, placing the Northern Rockies on the ascent side of the system for northward expansion of shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, though temperatures will remain near average for one more day. H700 flow slows down by Sunday afternoon and MU CAPE looks to be around 100 to 300 J/kg (highest southwest MT), so not expecting anything beyond general thunderstorm risks at this time. Ensembles remain in decent agreement with the aforementioned closed low swinging NE into E MT and slowing down some Monday through early Thursday. Although, there are differences on the precise path of the low, most favor cool, wet, and windy periods during this timeframe. According to the NAEFS Standardized Anomaly, H700 temperatures are forecast to be around -8C for much of this event, which would support mountain accumulating snow, but mostly rain at lower elevations. Current probabilistic forecasts for rainfall highlight the eastern portions of North-central MT with the highest chances (50 to 70%) for 1 inch of rainfall during the 72 hr period ending next Thursday at 6 am, with nearly all locations in the CWA standing at least a 50% for a quarter inch of rainfall for the same time period. The one drier exception looks to be southwestern valleys from Dillon to the Three Forks area. As mentioned earlier, thermodynamic profiles should confine accumulating snow to mountain areas, with the Little Belts and the Madison/Gallatin ranges seeing 60% + chances for 8 inches of snow or more Monday through Thursday, with most of it falling Tuesday night into Wednesday. H700 flow on the backside of this low will be at or above the 30 to 40 kt range for an extended period, resulting in gusty to at times strong northwesterly surface winds. While all days Monday through Wednesday look to be on the windier side, Tuesday is being singled out by the EC Extreme Forecast Index and NBM probabilistic forecasts as the windiest day overall, with many locations seeing 70% + chances for wind gusts above 40 mph. Drier and milder conditions move in for Thursday and Friday of next week, though around 50% of the ensembles support weaker troughing remaining in place for non-zero chances for precipitation and near average temperatures heading into next weekend. - RCG && .AVIATION... 600 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 (04/00Z TAF Period) More stable air is moving into the CWA this evening, as a cold pocket of colder air is moving away to our east. This will result in cloud cover becoming more scattered this evening, along with any remaining light rain/snow showers diminishing. Generally expect a quite day on Saturday, with VFR conditions prevailing. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 26 64 42 63 / 20 0 10 40 CTB 26 60 37 59 / 20 0 10 30 HLN 31 69 44 69 / 10 0 10 60 BZN 25 67 42 65 / 10 0 10 70 WYS 19 60 36 52 / 10 0 30 90 DLN 30 66 43 60 / 10 10 40 70 HVR 25 64 39 71 / 20 0 0 20 LWT 23 59 36 65 / 20 0 10 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018005762#### FXUS63 KMPX 032357 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 657 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this evening through Saturday morning. - Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer temperatures expected Sunday. - Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5" while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s) but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong, negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating, widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains. After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front is gradually progressing southeastward this evening, bringing a swath of rain/virga and a smaller area of weakening CB/TS across east-central MN. Winds will quickly shift out of the NW behind this front, but remain around 5-10kts for most. Cigs will slowly fill in and lower throughout the night as the next rainmaker moves through from west to east. Most sites will drop to MVFR, with pockets of VFR possible while the main period of rain is underway. Terminals will see a gradual improvement of conditions throughout tomorrow, with VFR likely by tomorrow night for all sites. KMSP...The front is knocking on the door-step, with a quick wind change expected after its passage. Any rain associated this evening should stay north and west of MSP, however brief periods of sprinkles is not out of the question. Similar to today, winds will become gusty to 20kts tomorrow afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there). && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...BED HYDROLOGY...CCS ####018003622#### FXUS63 KGRR 032357 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 757 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night - Dry end of the weekend - Many chances for rain next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 - Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will draw up moisture from the south Saturday into Saturday night. Instability increases as well later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but overall remains weak. Aloft some upper level divergence is seen Saturday night over the CWA so that may enhance the lift. Thus the combination of moisture, lift and instability will likely lead to showers and a few storms. Ensemble QPF values, while low, have been trending up with the precipitation for this period. - Dry end of the weekend High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will produce plenty of sunshine Sunday. Highs will climb to a couple of degree either side of 70. - Many chances for rain next week The persistent upper trough over the western US is progd to cut off over the northern High Plains during the middle of the week. The result will be several short waves that move in our direction and bring chances for showers and storms. Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be a time frame that will see increased chances for precipitation. An occluded front will lift north toward Lower MI Tuesday afternoon and this will produce some showers/storms. Present indications are that the strongest instability will remain south of the state. However, that could changed this far out. SPC has already highlighted areas to the southwest of the state for the potential of severe storms. Another chance of showers/storms will come Thursday and Thursday night, when the surface low over the northern Plains moves east. Accompanying short waves and a feed of moisture rich air from the south will spur convective development during this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 A combination of lingering low level moisture that will not decrease substantially behind this afternoon's cold frontal passage and a flow off of Lake Huron will produce stratus and fog tonight. We will be VFR through any flights at the TAF sites through 05Z or so. After 05Z, the stratus and fog will be making a push into Southwest Lower Michigan from the east. MVFR and IFR ceilings will develop at LAN and JXN around 06Z and overspread GRR/BTL and AZO by 09Z. The stratus will press into MKG by 11Z. The lowest conditions, IFR and potentially LIFR will occur between 09Z and 13Z. Low clouds will lift to VFR through the daylight hours of the Saturday morning (12Z-16Z). VFR weather is expected Saturday afternoon. Winds will become east tonight and gradually become southeast and south on Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Southerly flow will be on the increase Saturday into Saturday night as a front moves in from the west. This will be warm air advection and overall the values are expected to remain under 20 knots. Thus we don't plan on needing headlines a this time. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJS/04 AVIATION...Duke MARINE...MJS ####018007561#### FXUS66 KMFR 032359 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 459 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... A robust system is making its way on shore which will lead to widespread MVFR and IFR conditions across the region. Rain intensity and low level moisture will lead to both visibility restrictions and low ceilings through this cycle. It wont be until tomorrow afternoon that we start to see some relief from these diminished conditions. Until then, expect clouds to increase and rainfall to spread over the region tonight and overnight. At times, rainfall rates could limit visibility to 2 miles or less, with IFR to perhaps LIFR at times. Overall, unfavorable flying conditions are expected to start soon for at least the next 18 hours. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024/ SHORT TERM...Through Monday morning...An approaching low pressure system is already bringing rainfall to the Oregon coast. Rainfall will continue through the night over Coos, Curry, and western Douglas counties. Precipitation will steadily move eastward across the area through Saturday. Coastal areas will see about 2 to 3 inches of rainfall while west side valleys will get between half an inch and an inch of rain. Klamath and Modoc counties will get similar amounts of rainfall while Lake County will generally get half an inch of rain or less. The heaviest amounts will be late tonight through early Saturday morning. This system is bringing unseasonably cold air aloft, which will bring snow levels down from their current 8000 feet to 3000 feet by Saturday morning. While most snowfall will remain over higher terrain, the amount of moisture and the fast drop in snow levels will bring periods of heavy snow to the Cascades and to western Siskiyou County. Currently, 4 to 6 inches of snow are expected at elevations above 4000 feet for the Cascades and Siskiyou ranges, with a 20-30% chance of more than 6 inches over the Cascades by Sunday morning. Additionally, high resolution guidance shows a 40- 80% chance of snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Saturday morning. Due to the dangerous travel conditions that these conditions are expected to make, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for parts of western Siskiyou County from 2 AM to 11 AM on Saturday and for the Cascades from 2 AM to 11 PM on Saturday. This system will also bring elevated winds, especially across elevated terrain east of the Cascades. A Wind Advisory is in place for higher terrain in Lake County from Saturday at 5 AM through 5 PM. Gusty winds reaching over 40 mph are expected in this time, while wind gusts could still exceed 30 mph in other areas of Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties. One final impact from this system will be a drop in nighttime temperatures from Saturday to Sunday. Temperatures will drop to the high teens to mid 20s for areas east of the Cascades. Below freezing temperatures are also possible west of the Cascades, although right now only the Shasta and Scott valleys look to be significantly below freezing. A Freeze Watch is in place for those valleys on Sunday morning, but below freezing temperatures are possible for the Rogue and Illinois valleys as well. Future guidance will help determine if additional products will be needed, bur right now that looks unlikely. The effects of the system continue through Sunday, but are most likely limited to post-frontal showers over the Oregon coast and the Cascades. Cool daytime temperatures will continue and nighttime temperatures look to warm from Saturday night's levels. -TAD LONG TERM DISCUSSION...Models continue to show a front moving across the area on Monday with high chances (60 to 100 percent) across most the area. Precipitation amounts with this front on Monday will be mainly light with some moderate amounts (0.25 inches or more) over the Cascades, coastal mountains and along the coast. Snow levels will range from 4000 to 5500 feet. Additionally, models and ensembles support a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms Monday afternoon across portions of southwest Oregon, including Coos, Douglas, Klamath and Lake Counties. Brief downpours and gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that develop. Then, moist, onshore flow will allow for lingering showers on Tuesday, especially across southwest Oregon zones with lesser chances across Northern California. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday and remains in place through the end of the wee. This will bring drier and much warmer weather. By Friday, high temperatures will likely be in the 80s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the 70s for valleys east of the Cascades. AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs...Prevailing VFR this morning will drop back to MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys as a potent cold front moves in, with periods of moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation this afternoon. VFR will prevail elsewhere inland through late this afternoon/early this evening. The front will spread moderate precipitation across the rest of the west side tonight, reaching east of the Cascades Saturday morning. Expect widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR in rain with higher terrain obscured in rain/snow. A rapid drop in freezing levels will occur overnight (~09-15Z) from west to east and especially around 12Z Saturday morning near the Cascades. Rain will change to snow down to as low as 2500 feet with brief heavy snow in the mountains, reducing visibility to LIFR at times. Breezy south winds are expected with the front too, with peak gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Despite the increasing winds, low level wind shear is not a concern at this time. Conditions should improve a bit behind the front with precipitation becoming more showery, but still with a good amount of MVFR ceilings/visibility through tomorrow morning. -Spilde/BPN MARINE...Updated 200 PM Friday, May 3, 2024...A cold front will move through today into this evening with moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas. Following the front, seas will remain steep, dominated by fresh short period west swell through tonight. Showers continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms (20%) on Saturday. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Another front arrives Sunday night into Monday with the potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west-northwest seas into Tuesday. After that, we expect high pressure to build in mid-late next week with a thermal trough strengthening along the coast. This will bring a return of stronger north winds and steep seas, highest south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde/BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ030-031. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for CAZ080. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CAZ080-081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ ####018005554#### FXUS61 KCTP 032359 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 759 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin this afternoon mainly in western PA as clouds increase -Noticeable cool down over the weekend with overcast skies and periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Radar loop at 2330Z shows dwindling, diurnally-driven convection moving into the western part of the forecast area, as it encounters a more stable air mass over the Allegheny Plateau. Expect this trend to continue into the evening hours, with a lingering chance of a shower over the Alleghenies. The focus later tonight shifts to the potential of additional showers linked to a mid level vort max lifting into Southwest PA from the Ohio Valley. Surging pwats, combined with the arrival of this feature will bring an increased chance of showers over primarily the southwest portion of the forecast area late tonight. An increasingly moist east/southeast flow off of the Atlantic, combined with upslope flow, will likely yield developing stratus along the spine of the Appalachians late tonight. Low temps will be above early May climo and range between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to Warren County. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA on Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM. The current thinking is most areas will remain in the mid to low 50s given the easterly flow. No risk of thunder on Saturday so removed from wx grids and changed character of precip to rain from showers. No major changes to the Sunday fcst were made other than increasing rain PoPs through early Sunday morning. Rain/showers continue through Sunday and into Sunday night with highs recovering 5-10F over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA. Some isolated convection is possible in this area Sunday PM as the warm sector shifts to the east. Despite the relatively high moisture availability, limited rain rates should keep blended mean QPF btwn 0.50-1.00 inches ending 00Z Monday. Fcst lows Sunday night will be +10-15F above climo for early May in the 50-60F range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will be dominated by WSW flow aloft. Sfc boundaries linger overhead/nearby the state for the entire period. Several successive shots of shortwaves should slide overhead, likely the remnants of a very active/stormy time over the central plains. Thankfully, the expected severe weather in the middle of the country is not expected to extend this far to the east on most (if any of the) days. However, we do get the forcing provided by the repeated MCSs. These things are highly difficult to track and anticipate the timing of arrival, too, 4-7 days out. The ECMWF does push the boundary south of PA enough for Tues to be dry. But...the GFS and importantly, the blend of models, never let go of 30-80 PoPs. Gulf moisture really never gets totally cut off from reaching the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic States, but does diminish somewhere in the vicinity of PA. Thus, there is high confidence of a wet period during the entire long term, esp for srn PA, but extremely low confidence in timing of each successive wave. PoPs >30pct will remain for each 12hr period, as there is no model or conceptual consensus to dip that low. They also won't go above 80 pct for much the same reason. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered SHRA across western PA has largely stayed east of all airfields in central PA. Some light SHRA passed over JST/AOO although relatively dry air in the lower-levels made for very little in the way of rainfall. Some light showers are still in the vicinity so have outlined VCSH for these airfields for the next couple of hours. The best chance of SHRA at either airfield will come in the very near-term (00Z-01Z) although showers continue to break apart. Chances of TSRA are low (< 30%) and have kept them out of the TAFs for this cycle, with any TSRA occurring at BFD/JST. Chances for TSRA after 03Z Saturday drop even further with the loss of daytime heating. Chances for low clouds and some fog do remain possible, although model sounding shave outlined less moisture in the lower-levels that would promote fog formation. If any fog formation is to occur, best chances will be across SW PA at JST with lesser chances at AOO. Southeasterly winds will increase probability of fog in these locations as well, but with low confidence have opted to keep fog out of this TAF package. Light SHRA will continue on Saturday with restrictions expected at all airfields across central PA. Widespread MVFR conds are expected by 12Z Saturday with IFR cigs expected across Allegheny Front airfields (JST/AOO/UNV, lesser IPT) throughout the day on Saturday. Outlook... Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA. Mon-Wed...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Bowen LONG TERM...Dangelo AVIATION...NPB