####018004854#### FXUS63 KAPX 040006 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 806 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and mild weather through Saturday. - Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night. - Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pattern Synopsis: Shortwave troughing will lift across Ontario today as the parent mid/upper-level low pivots toward Hudson Bay tonight. The associated surface cyclone will also trek across Ontario and over Hudson Bay by late tonight/early Saturday morning. A cold front extending southeast of the system center will keep pushing east of the area this afternoon and evening, leaving relatively high pressure in place through Saturday. Forecast Details: Quiet and mild weather through Saturday -- Remaining showers will end this afternoon as the aforementioned front continues to slide out of northern Michigan, leaving sunny skies in place for the remainder of the day. Clear/sunny skies will stay in place through Saturday morning, promoting efficient radiational cooling overnight to drop temperatures well into the 40s -- and even upper 30s across typical interior cold spots. Southerly flow will strengthen through the morning, bringing warm/moist air northward to help temperatures climb back into the low to mid 70s for areas of northern lower Michigan away from the lakeshores. Cooler temperatures in the 60s are anticipated across the eastern U.P. and those close to the lakes. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave troughing currently spanned across North America with embedded height disturbances keep weather mild and active at times for the entirety of the long term forecast period. Midlevel low pressure with attached troughing currently over the central CONUS/Canadian boarder and over the Alaskan Bay will be the main two sources of energy for the Great Lakes region this weekend and next week. The first trough over the central CONUS will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson Bay and pushing a shortwave trough through the Great Lakes region by Saturday evening. A cold front will proceed to deliver convective driven showers with the chance of a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Attention switches focus on Tuesday when the second trough makes it way to the Northern Rockies and stalls over the region for the remainder of next week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night: A weak cold front will deliver a line of showers to the CWA Saturday night with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder remaining possible. Weak convection tied to the line will have no severe threat associated with the system, but areas across northern Michigan can expect a soaking of rain as QPF amounts remain around a general tenth or two. Higher amounts of liquid remain possible as more convective showers could produce some higher totals but no overall impactful weather is expected. Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms: Sunday and Monday remain dry as midlevel shortwave ridging pushes quiet weather into the Great Lakes region. Low dew points do raise concern for potential fire weather conditions, especially this Monday, but weaker winds keep the conditions questionable ahead of aformentioned midlevel low pressure returning showers and storms this Tuesday. Current guidance is depicting favorable conditions of strong thunderstorms as dewpoints push themselves into the upper 50s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of cold front. To early to determine severity of this line, but will continue to monitor this feature with later model runs. Midlevel low pressure/troughing will stall over the northern plains the remainder of the forecast period, continuing lingering showers at times across the Great Lakes region for the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Increasing potential for MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and fog/mist to impact KAPN (and perhaps KCIU) later tonight/early Saturday morning. Any low clouds/fog/mist should burn off quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected, with just some increasing high and mid level clouds during the day Saturday. No significant wind concerns through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...MSB ####018008230#### FXUS61 KCLE 040008 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 808 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern continues as a cold front moves east across the area tonight. Another warm front will lift north on Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday as the parent low moves northeast into Quebec. High pressure will push in briefly Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 7 PM Update Some minor adjustments to pops this evening, but the forecast remains on track. Opted for slight chance thunder wording for the rest of the night as the atmosphere stabilizes over the next several hours. Original discussion...An active weather pattern will continue through the near term period as multiple boundaries enhanced by upper level shortwaves move across the area. Setting up the big picture, there is a broad upper level trough across the northern contiguous US with an associated low pressure at the surface centered over the north-central US. A cold front associated with this system will move east across the area tonight, bringing another chance of precipitation. Much of the support for shower development is coming from upper level embedded shortwaves which are advecting vorticity across the area. This support coupled with an area of low level convergence should allow for more widespread showers to become established along and east of I71 this evening into the overnight hours. Overall mesoscale conditions, including instability and shear, remain very minimal this afternoon so getting any thunder may be hard but cannot rule out a few rumbles. Primary concern would be heavy rainfall in the strongest showers which may result in nuisance flooding. By Saturday morning, a nose of high pressure pushes over the area and allows for a very brief, although cloudy, period of no precipitation. By Saturday afternoon, another warm front will move north across the area, allowing the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to return. These should gradually begin to taper from west to east early Sunday as another cold front approaches, but maintained slight chance for this period. Highs tomorrow will reach into the 70s across western counties, but will remain in the 60s for far NE OH and NW PA. Overnight lows both nights will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will likely be approaching Toledo early Sunday and will slowly cross the area from west to east by Sunday evening. A slug of deeper moisture and associated showers may still be impacting far eastern OH into northwestern PA early Sunday, though farther west should start the day fairly dry. Additional showers & thunder are expected to develop along the cold front by late morning or early afternoon is it drifts east out of northwestern Ohio and into north central Ohio and then continue east through the afternoon and early evening. Overall, Sunday will feature more clouds than sun with showers and thunder around at times, though a washout type steady rain is unlikely. Not seeing much of a severe weather threat on Sunday, as forcing and shear will be weak. Thermodynamics may support a few stronger storms east/southeast of a Mount Gilead - Parma - Chardon - Edinboro line during the later afternoon hours, with small to perhaps near-severe hail and locally strong winds the main concern if any storms briefly pulse stronger before collapsing due to the lack of stronger shear. Storm motion won't be all that fast so can't rule out a gully-washer or two, though am not expecting enough organization for much of a flooding threat either. High pressure briefly noses in from the north Sunday night into Monday behind the cold front, which should allow us to dry out. As the front begins returning as a warm front late Monday into Monday night rain chances may begin returning from the southwest. Gut feeling is that Monday and Monday night may end up drier than currently forecasted, though given enough model spread and a need to be collaborated, only made modest reductions to the NBM POPs. Highs on Sunday will hinge on how long we can break into some sunshine behind showers exiting to the east in the morning and activity developing and spreading across the area along the cold front during the midday and afternoon timeframe. For now, generally have most of the area in the 70s. Highs generally range from the mid 60s along the lake to the low to mid 70s well-inland on Monday. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will generally settle into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term will begin with a trough over the northern Plains and a ridge centered over the Southeast, with broad southwest flow in between. The trough will begin shifting towards the Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday. A warm front is expected to lift through on Tuesday, with a cold front expected to cross Thursday into Friday. There will be relatively higher chances for showers and thunder both with the warm frontal passage Tuesday into Tuesday evening, and again Thursday into Friday as the cold approaches and crosses. While we'll be in the open warm sector on Wednesday, activity may develop upstream and spread in later in the day or at night. Severe weather and flooding potential are uncertain, as we will be on the fringes of a moist and unstable with enough flow aloft for organized convection. However, many solutions develop organized clusters of convection well upstream across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys most days, which would tend to track just to our south and also act to overturn the greater instability before it can advect in. We are not currently "outlooked" for severe weather by the SPC which seems reasonable given the uncertainty and potential limiting factors mentioned above, though experimental machine learning severe weather guidance from Colorado State University does suggest severe potential may bleed into our area (with greater risk just to our southwest) if upstream convection is not too expansive. Temperatures will lean warmer than normal until the cold front crosses. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Mainly VFR conditions at the onset of the period, with some light SHRA activity expected to impact terminals over the next six hours east of KTOL/KFDY. Some lowering ceilings possible with some MVFR possible between 06Z and 12Z at some of the terminals. Some lower stratus/FG may advect west off Lake Erie impact KTOL overnight, but confidence too low for explicit IFR mention. SHRA activity will wane after 06Z. Some MVFR ceilings and additional SHRA/potential TSRA moves into the region near the end of the period. Winds will generally be light and variable through the night but will increase out of the south through the day on Saturday. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are expected for the foreseeable future. Southeast winds may briefly become gusty in the nearshore waters off of Pennsylvania late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, though sustained winds likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A cold front will cross on Sunday. A warm front lifts across the lake Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a cold front next Thursday or Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible over the lake Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, though greater potential will likely be inland. Additional thunderstorms are possible at times over the lake Tuesday through Friday next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/Greenawalt SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...Sullivan ####018004165#### FXUS61 KCAR 040009 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 809 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region tonight through Saturday, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. An occluded front will cross the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 809 PM Update: Mostly cloudy skies continue across most of the forecast area this evening, with a deck of lower stratus moving from east to west from New Brunswick into our forecast area, as seen on current IR satellite imagery. The previous forecast remains on track with no major adjustments needed. Previous Discussion: High pressure, surface/aloft, will remain ridged across the region tonight through Saturday. Moisture beneath the subsidence inversion, along with clouds wrapping back across the region from the Maritimes, will keep partly/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area tonight. Diurnal cloud development and clouds wrapping back from the Maritimes will keep partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the region Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to around 40 across the forecast area. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the forecast area. However, mid to upper 50s will occur along the Downeast coast where onshore winds will develop. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure should remain centered over NB Saturday night. Upper air model soundings indicate a moisture low layer throughout the night, thus cloudy skies are expected. Temps should be fairly mild with S flow and light winds. By Sunday, a weakening occluded frontal boundary starts to approach from the west. Clouds and S winds should increase into the afternoon with the tightening pressure gradients. By the evening, the chance for rain showers should spread to the eastern border. By Sunday night, rain showers will continue with decreasing S winds. QPF models show the majority of rain staying to the south as the low intensifies. By Monday, the system will pick up speed and pull the rest of the rain showers out of the region. The 925mb model temps show a warm airmass behind the system, which should bring temps above normal for the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure returns to the region Monday night and remains in the area through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the extended models are picking up on some shortwave energy moving across the waters. However, the 12z model runs showing the rain staying far to the south. The NBM had to much precip in the forecast for the end of the week due to these shortwave systems, so decreased precip to chance or slight chance. The models lose consistency by the weekend. Temps should be near normal. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR early tonight, with cigs falling towards SCT to BKN MVFR across Downeast terminals, and BKN to OVC MVFR at northern terminals overnight. Cigs will trend back towards VFR through the day on Saturday. Winds NE around 5 kts, shifting SE around 5 kts on Saturday. SHORT TERM: Sun night...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs. Lgt Winds. Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the day. Mon night-Wed...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions through this period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash