####018006992#### FXUS62 KRAH 040035 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 835 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front will settle into north-central North Carolina tonight, where it will stall through Saturday night, then weaken and move northward into Virginia on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 835 PM Friday... A backdoor cold front has moved into the extreme northeastern portion of the forecast area - KIXA had a wind shift from southerly at 6pm to easterly at 7pm. In addition, several sites across southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina have had a shift to easterly wind with much cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, an area of showers and thunderstorms is moving to the north out of Person County, with an area of showers extending farther to the south where a differential heating boundary developed earlier. The chance for showers and thunderstorms should diminish through the evening, then rise again overnight as the back door front moves farther into the area. The location of the front and just how far southwest it moves could have a significant impact on overnight temperatures. The current forecast calls for temperatures in the low 60s across the northeast to the mid 60s in the southwest. In addition, an area of low stratus appears likely to move in behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will stall along the eastern seaboard through Sat night. A southern stream disturbance will move into the Southeast US on Sat, then lift newd through the area as a sheared out northern stream s/w moves through the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sat night. The sub-tropical ridge will shift offshore and breakdown Sun/Sun night as the disturbances move through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Another southern stream s/w will develop over the southern Plains on Sun, then move eastward into the lower/mid-MS Valley Sun night. At the surface, as high pressure sits over the New England coast, the backdoor cold front is expected to stall over nrn/nern NC through Sat and into Sat night then lift northward late Sat night/Sun. The high should move eastward over the Atlantic as a low moves through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Sun/Sun night. Precipitation/Convection: Still fairly high confidence/chances for showers and possible storms Sat and Sun. Best threat for storms will be across the Piedmont, mainly along and south of the surface boundary, where surface-based CAPE will be maximized. Bulk shear still appears weak, and PWATs are expected to range from 1.4 to 1.8 inches. Do not expect the entire day to be a wash-out by any means, and Sat could start dry for most, but there will be a chance for showers across all of central NC, with greatest coverage from Sat eve through Sun aft. Highest chances NW, lowest SE. Given the high PWATs and scattered, somewhat disorganized mode of convection, isolated locations could receive locally heavy rainfall, with any potential for minor flooding issues largely limited to urban areas. Temperatures: A bit tricky on Sat, as there is some bust potential north of the front. Widespread overcast skies should somewhat limit heating as well. For now expect highs to range from the mid 70s along the NC/VA border to mid 80s SE. Sat night temps should be continued mild, mainly in the low to mid 60s. On Sun, with the retreat of the front northward, areas across the north may be a few degrees higher than Sat, but given the expected showers/storms through the day, temps may otherwise be limited. Highs in the upper 70s north to low 80s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 329 PM Friday... The extended forecast upper pattern will largely include mid-level ridging over the eastern US. A stronger short-wave will move over the area Monday into Tuesday increasing rain chances. After relatively zonal flow Tuesday, mid-level ridging will then re- amplify over central NC through the end of the extended. Another potentially stronger trough may approach late in the period. Monday/Tuesday: A potent mid-level short-wave and associated vorticity max is forecast to move across the southern Appalachians Monday afternoon. Mid-level height falls will maximize over us later Monday afternoon/early evening coinciding with peak heating/instability. At the sfc, a piedmont trough will develop Monday afternoon which, in combination with forcing aloft, should help to focus showers and storms across our area. Bulk layer shear will be much too weak to support severe storms, but given the presence of anomalous PWAT (150 to 200 % of normal) any storm that develops could produce brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. POPs should decrease late Monday night/early Tuesday morning as flow aloft turns a bit more nwly and the atmosphere stabilizes. In absence of upper forcing aloft, rain chances Tuesday afternoon will largely rely on diurnal shower/storm development which should remain mostly scattered. Temperatures Monday will peak in the mid to upper 80s, increasing into the upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday/Thursday: The mid-level ridge will re-establish itself Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures soar into the lower to mid 90s. The NBM is particularly stoked about 90 temps for highs these days with >80% of it's members reaching this threshold for much of this area. The LREF (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) is a little less enthused on Wednesday, but does suggest decently high probabilities on Thursday (generally 40 to 60 % across the area). Otherwise, anomalous moisture will remain in place Wednesday/Thursday which should promote a continuation of low-chance POPs each afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 800 PM Friday... Generally VFR conditions will continue through 06z tonight. IFR to LIFR CIGS and MVFR vsbys are expected to develop over a swath of central NC later tonight 08z-09z and linger into Saturday 15z-16z. In addition scattered showers will become more numerous Saturday, with isolated thunderstorms. The showers will linger into Saturday night with lingering IFR to LIFR conditions. Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings are likely to redevelop each night- morning through Monday, as are scattered to locally numerous showers/storms each afternoon-evening. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...pwb/MWS ####018007083#### FXUS62 KTAE 040038 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 838 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a storm system attendant to its shortwave trough traversing eastward across the Lower MS Valley with a downstream ridge axis bisecting the Coastal Carolinas down to the FL Peninsula. These features are making for warm/moist conditions with a mix of cloudiness, and isolated showers & thunderstorms today. The latter is seabreeze driven, initially focused mostly along the Eastern FL Big Bend before drifting towards the I-75 corridor into the early evening hrs. Additional cell development is possible from remnant outflow boundaries during that time. Lingering showers are possible tonight from the west as the aforementioned shortwave pivots NE through the Wiregrass. A muggy airmass will make for an unseasonably warm overnight/early-morning period with widespread forecast lows in the upper 60s, or about 10- 12 degrees above normal! Patchy fog is also forecast to develop in the pre-dawn hrs from Southern AL/Emerald Coast, then spreading to the FL Big Bend into parts of South-Central GA. Dissipation should occur within a couple hrs after sunrise. For tomorrow, expect greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms thanks to some upper-level support provided by the lifting shortwave, afternoon seabreeze, and sufficient daytime instability amidst a moist airmass. These parameters should support deep convection capable of strong/gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. The latter could produce localized high rain amounts exceeding 1 inch. Minimal vertical wind shear precludes severe weather concerns, but several strong storms (perhaps isolated "pulse" severe) are likely. The best chances are along the interstate corridors, followed by a northward drift past the FL state line. Aside from storm activity, temperatures peak in the mid/upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Another shortwave will move across the mid-South Sunday into Sunday evening, which will bring another enhancement to our chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon. The highest rain chances will be across southwest GA and the eastern FL Big Bend. Some mid-level dry air as well as inverted-V profiles on forecast soundings may lead to some gusty wind potential Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, it will continue to be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 One more shortwave traverses the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon, which provides another boost to our rain chances. However, forecast soundings don't appear as conducive for gusty winds given less mid-level dry air and more moisture near the surface. Highs Monday will be in the upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Beyond Monday, strong ridging takes hold of the area, shutting off the rain and bringing increasing heat through the middle to latter part of the week. Ensemble guidance indicates that we may see 500 mb heights near 589-590 dam, which is close to record heights for this time of year based on SPC's sounding climatology. Similarly, 850 mb temperatures will be in the 18-22C range, which is also near record levels for this time of year. All that to say, it's going to be hot. Highs will climb in to the lower to middle 90s, and with dew points near 70, heat index values could approach 100 in some areas. Lows will also climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 833 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Isold TSRA/SHRA will continue through the next few hours, in addition to light SHRA associated with an upstream shortwave trough. Have continued VCTS mention through 02Z At ABY and will metwatch for VLD if a mention is needed. Overnight, patchy fog will develop from TLH to ECP from 07-13Z. Have conditions down into LIFR at both locations for both vsbys and cigs. Later Saturday, good coverage of SHRA/VCTS expected from TLH and ABY east to VLD. For now have PROB30 mention after 20Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 3 feet into the weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Afternoon and early evening thunderstorms capable of gusty/erratic winds and lightning will be the main fire concerns the next 3 days. For tomorrow, convection aims to focus along the interstate corridors after seabreeze initiation on the Big Bend side, then drifting north past the FL state line. Convective potential is expected to be greater compared to today. Wetting rains are also possible. Additional rounds of diurnal showers/thunderstorms are forecast Sunday-Monday, albeit lesser coverage, but targeting roughly the same locations as Saturday. Otherwise, look for hot daytime conditions with highs in the upper 80s away from the immediate coast, southerly winds, and a daily afternoon seabreeze. High dispersions are forecast over parts of SE AL/FL Panhandle Monday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Abundant moisture will be in place with a decent coverage of showers and storms this weekend. While widespread totals of 0.5 to 1 inch, localized totals if storms are slow moving could reach 2 to 3 inches in a short period of time. This could result in some nuisance flooding of poor drainage or urban areas. Otherwise, no additional flood concerns are expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 86 67 88 / 10 60 20 40 Panama City 69 83 67 85 / 10 20 0 10 Dothan 68 89 65 88 / 20 40 10 40 Albany 69 87 67 88 / 30 70 30 50 Valdosta 68 86 67 88 / 40 70 30 60 Cross City 66 87 66 88 / 10 50 20 50 Apalachicola 69 80 69 82 / 10 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...Young