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FXUS66 KLOX 040055

AFDLOX



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 

555 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024



.SYNOPSIS...03/153 PM.



Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through at least the

weekend as a weak storm system moves into California. Some light 

precipitation is expected Saturday afternoon into very early 

Sunday along with some gusty winds at times, mainly interior 

areas. A warming and drying trend will develop next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...03/208 PM.



A late season storm is approaching California today and we're

already feeling the effects of it in the form of a deeper and slow

clearing marine layer as well as much cooler temperatures. Models

have been quite consistent the last several runs indicating high

chances for rain north of Pt Conception starting Saturday

afternoon. The trajectory of the storm and the primarily westerly

low level flow isn't as favorable a pattern for southern areas in

terms of rain but most areas should see at least some sprinkles or

light showers Saturday night. Ensembles continue to project around

a quarter inch northern areas, tapering down to a tenth or less in

the south. Most of the precip will be done before sunrise Sunday,

so most of Sunday will be dry with plenty of sunshine but still

cooler than normal with some breezy and conditions, especially

near the coast and in the mountains.



Monday will be much warmer as the storm moves into the Plains and

onshore flow weakens.



.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/217 PM.



The remainder of next week is expected to be fairly quiet with

a slow warming trend, mainly inland as California sits between a

low pressure system over the Great Basin and high pressure over

the eastern Pacific. Coastal area temperatures will be near normal

with possibly some increasing marine layer stratus by around mid

week. There is potential for more significant warming (again

mainly inland) next Friday into next weekend if the ridge over 

the eastern Pacific shifts east into California as some models are

showing.



&&



.AVIATION...04/0054Z.



At 0000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2400 feet deep. The top of

the inversion was at 4600 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees 

Celsius.



Overall, moderate to high confidence in the 00Z TAFs. MVFR CIGS

are forecast to arrive at all sites except KPRB, KPMD and KWJF 

between 03Z-06Z. The CIGs are expected to linger through the

period as a storm system approaches the area, with -RA likely

after around 21Z north of Point Conception, and after 00Z-06Z

further south. There is a 30-40 percent chance that CIGs could

lift to VFR at any site between 18Z-00Z Saturday afternoon. 



KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. MVFR CIGs are expected

by 03Z but the arrival time could be delayed by up to 2 hours.

There is a 30 percent chance that CIGs remain at MVFR level

between 23Z-03Z. No significant easterly wind component is 

expected.



KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. For tonight, there is 

a 30% chance that MVFR CIGs could arrive as early as 03Z.



&&



.MARINE...03/1238 PM.



For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current 

forecast. For tonight, there is a 50-70% chance of Gale force 

winds with the highest chances across PZZ670/673 and GALE WARNINGS

remain in effect. For Saturday through Wednesday, high confidence

in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas

with a 40-60% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday.



For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high

confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, there 

is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds with the strongest winds 

during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, there is a 

30-40% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday.



For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high

confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high

confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For

Saturday night through Sunday night, high confidence in

combination of SCA level winds and seas with a 30-40% chance of 

Gale force winds Sunday and Sunday night, especially across 

western sections. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-60% 

chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa 

Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining 

below SCA levels elsewhere.



&&



.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for

      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).

     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones

      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).



&&



$$



PUBLIC...MW

AVIATION...Smith

MARINE...RAT

SYNOPSIS...MW



weather.gov/losangeles



Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox