####018010229#### FXUS61 KAKQ 040112 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 912 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes south and west of the area tonight. On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 910 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - On and off showers expected tonight through Saturday with the highest coverage inland. - Becoming dreary for all areas Saturday with extensive low-level cloud cover. Evening wx analysis shows that the backdoor cold front has just about crossed the FA (with a few obs in the s-central VA Piedmont showing mid 70s w/ mid 60s dew points. Scattered showers/tstms have developed near the front across our far SW zones. Meanwhile, a decent E-NE wind continues elsewhere (especially near the coast where there are areas of drizzle/fog...although VSBYs are mostly at or above 1SM attm). The front will settle to our SW overnight, but some elevated instability (based around 800-900mb) will overspread at least the western half of the FA overnight. Expect showers and potentially a tstm or two along/west of I-95 overnight, with no precipitation outside of drizzle near the coast. Patchy fog may also move onshore across SE VA and NE NC, but continue to think visibilities will not get too low given the elevated winds. Overnight lows will be chillier than the previous few nights with upper 40s on the MD Eastern Shore and 50s for most of the rest of the area (lower 60s down along the Albemarle Sound). The front will be well W/SW of the area by tonight into Saturday. Sfc high pressure will be left in its wake across New England. This will wedge a cool/moist low-level airmass over the entire area for the day Saturday. This will also keep cloudy conditions in place. The best forcing/lift and moisture remains across the W, so expecting the highest coverage Saturday mainly W of I-95. Despite this, it will tend to remain unpleasant even towards the coast w/ onshore flow and patchy drizzle. Continue to trend highs lower with temps struggling to reach 60 across the N, with mid 60s-low 70s elsewhere. There is a chance that far SW portions of the CWA (e.g., Northampton/Bertie Counties in NC) reach the upper 70s, but this may even be overdone. These values are still below NBM (especially S). On and off "showery" rainfall continues overnight Saturday with lows in the 50s N to 60s S. QPF through tomorrow averages from up to 0.50" across the W, 0.1-0.4" central, and 0.00" to a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday. - More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide. The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s and 80s and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing with rather weak shear. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages... - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle to end of next week. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak shortwaves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. These convective complexes may also move through the region from the NW, but these features are notoriously hard to predict. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7-7.5 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. Instability will certainly not be a limiting factor as temps warm into the 80s and 90s every day. At this time, the synoptic pattern for severe looks most favorable Thursday with an approaching trough and the most robust CAPE. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. We continue to have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Friday... Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 00z/04 TAF period as MVFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, mainly dry wx is expected through 03z before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday. Cannot completely rule out thunder at RIC overnight, but the chance of this is very low. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast). Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 710 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night. - Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday. - Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday. Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters). Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time. Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 905 PM EDT Friday... Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and stay just shy of minor flood stage overnight. Tidal anomalies continue to increase this weekend with minor to locally moderate flooding (at Bishops Head) possible across the middle and upper bay due prolonged onshore flow. Nuisance to minor flooding is possible up the James River as well Sat evening. Will likely need to upgrade the Coastal Flood Statement to a Coastal Flood Advisory across parts of the upper Bay for the Sat afternoon high tide. However, given that the upcoming high tide stays just below, will hold off for now. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...AM/SW AVIATION...ERI/SW MARINE...LKB/RMM/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018008759#### FXUS62 KJAX 040114 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 914 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Scattered to isolated showers and storms are expected to persist through the overnight hours as a shortwave continues its push through the area, with most activity over the west- northwest locations of SE GA. Kept forecast mainly unchanged aside from some minor tweaks to PoPs. Overnight lows will mainly in the mid to upper 60s, warm spots near the coast and northwest SE GA. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Another day with a mix of sun and clouds is underway as the east coast seabreeze progresses further inland. The breeze is getting hung up a bit near the St. Johns River breezes and building some taller cumulus, though just not quite enough layer moisture for any showers or storms to come out of this as of now. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out between about I-75 and I-95 through the next few hours, though the main focus area will be in the vicinity of and west of I-75 and into southwestern GA counties this evening where the sea breeze collides with the Gulf breeze. There is also a surge of higher PWATs further west ahead of a shortwave impulse aloft, which should also aid in the formation of some showers and a few t'storms. Not expecting anything at severe criteria, as instability will not be significant and the flow aloft is generally weak. Most areas have risen into the mid to upper 80s, with maybe just a few degrees more to rise inland before the arrival of the sea breeze. Closer to the coast, likely have already topped out in the low 80s. The aforementioned shortwave pushes closer overnight tonight, which will be enough for some showers and isolated t'storms to persist overnight. Especially in areas inland to the west and north of I-10, away from strongest surface ridging and where there will be greater available moisture. With the lingering convection overnight and more cloud cover in the area, not expecting as much in the way of fog Saturday Morning as compared to this morning. Though some patchy areas cannot be ruled out, especially over northeast FL. Lows will be mild, in the 60s to low 70s by the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday...Rather messy/complex forecast as mid level trough/surface frontal boundary over the SE US and any ongoing leftover convection across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley during the morning hours with abundant clouds will disrupt the usual diurnal sea breeze convective cycle. This will lead to unbalanced afternoon scattered to numerous showers and storms along both leftover boundaries over inland areas and weaker than normal inland moving sea breeze fronts from both the Gulf/Atlantic, which should still lead to decent afternoon/evening convective coverage, mainly over inland areas, but timing and strength of any convection will depend on how much insolation occurs through the daytime hours. Models have trended slightly downward with Max temps in the lower/middle 80s across SE GA and along the Atlantic Coast, while mid/upper 80s still expected over inland NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the most sun is expected through the day and will likely be the location for any of the isolated stronger storms with gusty winds 40-50mph, lightning and heavy downpours, but widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. Saturday Night...Mid level trough aloft is expected to weaken with a more normal downward diurnal trend in convection after sunset, with more quiet conditions expected during the overnight hours under fair skies. Low temps expected in the mid/upper 60s inland, with lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog is possible inland but will depend on amount/coverage of rainfall on Saturday and potential clearing skies during the overnight hours, so have not included in forecast/grids this far in advance. Sunday...Lingering moisture from decaying trough aloft and more normal diurnal sea breeze circulation should lead to scattered afternoon storms, which may be numerous where sea breeze activity meets between the I-75 and US 301 corridors over inland areas, along with continued potential for widely scattered strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph, small hail, lightning and heavy downpours. Max temps expected to reach the widespread upper 80s with isolated near 90 degree readings over inland areas, while the Atlantic Coast tops out in the lower/middle 80s. Sunday Night...Weak ridging aloft begins to build into the region and expect an earlier end to most diurnal convection by sunset with partly/mostly clear skies developing overnight with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Typical patchy fog possible over inland areas, but significant dense fog not expected at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Monday...Weak mid level trough passage through the SE US region and associated lingering moisture should continue the early summer-like sea breeze convective pattern with scattered to numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours, with best chances across inland SE GA where deepest moisture remains. Max temps generally in the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas, with lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast and the threat for widely scattered strong storms will continue. Tuesday through Friday...Not much change to the ongoing forecast of hot and mainly dry weather still on track as mid level ridging builds into the Gulf of Mexico and surface ridge axis builds south of the local region and this will trap the East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic beaches and build the daytime highs into the lower to middle 90s with near record highs possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Diurnal convection will be suppressed but isolated storms will still be possible on Tuesday, and again by the late Friday time frame as some long range models are pushing a frontal boundary into the local region by the following weekend. Dew points mixing down into the mid/upper 60s during the afternoon hours will keep the heat indices likely below any Heat Advisory levels, but peak Heat Indices into the 100-105 range will be possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers are not expected to impact TAF sites during the overnight hours. A low chance of a shower developing near GNV over the next couple, left off the TAF for now. Otherwise, VFR through the overnight, with VQQ the lone exception with possibility of fog developing during the overnight. Shower and storms activity is expected to pick up through the day tomorrow, as of now only included VCSH for GNV near the tail end of TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Surface high pressure ridging will remain over area waters through the weekend, with a sea breeze expected to push inland each day. The associated high will slowly move further southeastward into early next week, strengthening by mid next week. Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains at low end of moderate level through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for... Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962 Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962 Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962 Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 84 64 87 / 30 60 30 60 SSI 70 79 69 81 / 10 20 20 40 JAX 66 85 67 86 / 0 30 20 40 SGJ 67 83 68 85 / 0 20 10 40 GNV 65 88 66 89 / 10 50 20 60 OCF 66 90 66 90 / 0 40 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$