####018006381#### FXUS61 KBGM 040135 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 935 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will give way to a slow moving frontal boundary that will push through the area Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived early next week before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 930 PM Update... Showers continue to slowly creep eastward. With timing a little slower than expected and drier conditions over the region, PoPs were cut back slightly. Meanwhile, mid to high level clouds have pushed into the region. These will continue to spread eastward, resulting in mostly cloudy skies over the region. As a result, sky cover was increased through the early morning hours tomorrow. This cloud cover may help slow down cooling of temperatures. While no adjustments were made to the lows, temps were held slightly warmer over the next few hours. 645 PM Update... There was not much to change with this update. Sky cover was lowered some, at least until the showers from the west move in. The slow moving showers are expected to move in later this evening, so PoPs were left untouched for now. Temperatures and dew points were touched up based on the latest conditions. Most locations are still in the 70s. Otherwise, conditions remain quiet for now as we monitor the showers in western NY and PA. Previous Discussion... High pressure in place across our region will attempt to slow down a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. This should keep most of the showers with the front west and south of the region through most of Saturday. Though a few of the models have a glancing blow from some light showers in NE PA and west of the Finger Lakes in NY. Coverage of showers should ramp up Saturday night given increasing moisture and lift ahead of the frontal boundary. QPF through Saturday night looks to be a half inch or less, so no concern for flooding issues. Instability also looks to be very little if any does happen to develop. Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer due to clouds only falling to around 50 then struggle to rise into the low 60's on Saturday. Lows look to end up a few degrees cooler Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 120 PM Update... Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms. Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 120 PM Update... A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 745 PM Update VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide through tonight, and much of the day on Saturday. Expect just sct to bkn mid and high level clouds around during this timeframe. Later Saturday afternoon; after 18-21z Saturday CIGs do begin to lower into the MVFR and perhaps MVFR Fuel Alt category at AVP as periods of light rain begin. Overall trends are for higher CIGS and less rain further north Saturday afternoon/evening, for locations such as BGM and ELM which look to remain generally lower end VFR through the end of this taf period. ITH, SYR and RME are forecast to remain solidly VFR through early Saturday evening, with again, just a mix of mid and high level clouds. Winds are east-southeast up to around 10 kts overnight into Saturday morning. These winds turn more southeasterly and increase between 5 to 15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible late in the day. Outlook... Saturday evening through Sunday night...Periods of rain will bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday. Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then likely becoming VFR later in the day. Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MJM/MWG ####018006358#### FXUS61 KCTP 040136 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 936 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Noticeable cool down over the weekend with overcast skies and periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Radar loop at 0130Z shows dwindling, diurnally-driven convection moving into the western part of the forecast area, as it encounters a more stable air mass over the Allegheny Plateau. Expect this trend to continue into the evening hours, with a lingering chance of a shower over the Alleghenies. The focus later tonight shifts to the potential of additional showers linked to a mid level vort max lifting into Southwest PA from the Ohio Valley. Surging pwats, combined with the arrival of this feature will bring an increased chance of showers over primarily the southwest portion of the forecast area late tonight. An increasingly moist east/southeast flow off of the Atlantic, combined with upslope flow, will likely yield developing stratus along the spine of the Appalachians late tonight. Low temps will be above early May climo and range between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to Warren County. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Model guidance supports developing rain Saturday across Central PA from south to north ahead of an upper level shortwave lifting out of the Tennessee Valley. The associated southerly low level jet and plume of higher pwats overrunning a dome of cool/stable air across Central PA should result scattered showers giving way to a steady rain early Sat morning over the southern tier counties and by late in the day over the northern tier. The upper level shortwave should begin to lift out of the area Sunday, resulting in rain tapering off from west to east. Scattered late day convection appears possible late Sunday over the Allegheny Plateaus associated with an approaching warm front over Western PA. Ensemble plumes support rain totals by late Sunday in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range for most of the area. Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM, due to thick cloud cover, easterly flow and arriving rain. We have blended the cooler NAM surface temps with those of the NBM, resulting in expected max temps in the mid to low 50s for much of the area. No risk of thunder on Saturday, so removed from wx grids and changed character of precip to rain from showers. Sunday looks to be another cool day for May, due to a persistent southeast flow off of the Atlantic. However, a slight rebound is expected over the western counties, due to rain tapering off the chance for a bit of afternoon brightening. Subsidence behind the departing shortwave should result in a mainly rain-free Sunday night. However, a lingering upsloping southeast flow will likely yield lingering low clouds/patchy drizzle. Fcst lows Sunday night are +10-15F above climo for early May in the 50-60F range. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will be dominated by WSW flow aloft. Sfc boundaries linger overhead/nearby the state for the entire period. Several successive shots of shortwaves should slide overhead, likely the remnants of a very active/stormy time over the central plains. Thankfully, the expected severe weather in the middle of the country is not expected to extend this far to the east on most (if any of the) days. However, we do get the forcing provided by the repeated MCSs. These things are highly difficult to track and anticipate the timing of arrival, too, 4-7 days out. The ECMWF does push the boundary south of PA enough for Tues to be dry. But...the GFS and importantly, the blend of models, never let go of 30-80 PoPs. Gulf moisture really never gets totally cut off from reaching the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic States, but does diminish somewhere in the vicinity of PA. Thus, there is high confidence of a wet period during the entire long term, esp for srn PA, but extremely low confidence in timing of each successive wave. PoPs >30pct will remain for each 12hr period, as there is no model or conceptual consensus to dip that low. They also won't go above 80 pct for much the same reason. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered SHRA across western PA has largely stayed east of all airfields in central PA. Some light SHRA passed over JST/AOO although relatively dry air in the lower-levels made for very little in the way of rainfall. Some light showers are still in the vicinity so have outlined VCSH for these airfields for the next couple of hours. The best chance of SHRA at either airfield will come in the very near-term (00Z-01Z) although showers continue to break apart. Chances of TSRA are low (< 30%) and have kept them out of the TAFs for this cycle, with any TSRA occurring at BFD/JST. Chances for TSRA after 03Z Saturday drop even further with the loss of daytime heating. Chances for low clouds and some fog do remain possible, although model sounding shave outlined less moisture in the lower-levels that would promote fog formation. If any fog formation is to occur, best chances will be across SW PA at JST with lesser chances at AOO. Southeasterly winds will increase probability of fog in these locations as well, but with low confidence have opted to keep fog out of this TAF package. Light SHRA will continue on Saturday with restrictions expected at all airfields across central PA. Widespread MVFR conds are expected by 12Z Saturday with IFR cigs expected across Allegheny Front airfields (JST/AOO/UNV, lesser IPT) throughout the day on Saturday. Outlook... Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA. Mon-Wed...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Bowen LONG TERM...Dangelo AVIATION...NPB