####018003863#### FXUS62 KCHS 040204 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1004 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Late this evening: Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing. Model guidance favors far interior southeast Georgia for overnight convection, mainly Tattnall, Evans, Candler, Bulloch, Screven, and Jenkins counties. This make sense as this area will feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.5" precipitable water values) will be present there. We don't anticipate the coverage will be too high, mainly in the isolated to scattered range. Conditions will not be nearly as conducive for fog development tonight, though some patchy fog will be possible across the inland tier. Lows will be mild, with mid to upper 60s across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern coastline, while across the southeastern states a series of shortwave troughs ripple through. At the surface high pressure will extend into the region from the east. Between the shortwave energy aloft and the afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. While a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat will be low. Shear values are not impressive and there appears to be model disagreements on how much instability will be in place. High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are forecast Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight low temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal, generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack of any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm activity. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s by Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below advisory levels, temperatures could approach record levels on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Sunday. There are no significant fog or stratus concerns at the terminals overnight, though some guidance would suggest that low ceilings could spread into KCHS right around sunrise. Given the amount of mid and high level clouds around tonight, we don't think this low stratus is too likely, so we have only carried a few clouds at around 500 ft. Saturday shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday. && .MARINE... Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds will average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across the local marine waters through the period, yielding rather benign conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out of the southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BSH MARINE... ####018005534#### FXUS63 KBIS 040206 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 906 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers continue this evening over much of western and central ND, then mainly across the north overnight. - Temperatures are forecast to warm up through the weekend, with windy conditions on Sunday. - Chances for rain return late Sunday night and continue through the work week. The wettest period will be Monday through Tuesday when most of western and central North Dakota will see medium to high chances (60 to 90 percent) of rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 905 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Modified POPs a bit based on latest radar imagery and trends, otherwise the forecast remains in decent shape. Isolated to scattered showers across the south are diminishing as expected, with lingering showers north along the sfc trough axis/frontal boundary. UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 S/WV mid level trough swinging east-southeast across eastern Montana into western North Dakota continues to generate enough lift to maintain scattered showers across the local area late this afternoon/early this evening. Showers and clouds across the south should dissipate as we cool this evening, with clouds and chances for showers persisting across the north near an inverted sfc trough moving slowly south across the US/Canadian border tonight. Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s where we clear, remaining above freezing where clouds linger tonight. UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Just a quick update to increase shower coverage across southern ND for the next few hours, based on latest radar imagery and trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An upper level low located over southern Ontario will continue to push eastward. Wrap around showers will continue across the northern half of the state. Instability is a bit lacking this afternoon for thunderstorms, but a rumble or two is still possible. Showers will decrease later this evening as instability from daytime heating decreases. Overcast skies from low cumulus has resulted in below normal temperatures with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Breezy winds are being observed across the state from a surface pressure gradient from the aforementioned upper low. A surface trough continues to push across the central half of the state turning winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s across the southwest as surface high pressure passes through the region. High temperatures Saturday will begin to trend upward to near normal as surface high pressure clears out the region and ridging begins to build out west over the Northern Rockies. Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day as temperatures are forecast to climb into the 60s to 70s out west due to the upper level ridge pushing into the region. In addition a strong surface low will move into eastern Montana with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to windy conditions across western and south central North Dakota. Forecast soundings at this time have around 45 kts mixing down to the surface which will result in advisory level winds. This short term warm up will be short lived as another broad trough pushes across Western CONUS. A strong upper level low pressure system will move up from the Rocky Mountains Monday leading to widespread precipitation across the Northern Plains. The NBM has 50 percent chance of 1 inch rain across the Northern half of the state where the deformation band will likely set up. PWATs are pretty impressive for this event with values around 1.1 inches. Heavy rain is possible from stronger storms. However, there are some areas that could see significantly less rain depending on where the dry slot sets up. Thunderstorms are possible as the system first moves into the region. Instability around 500 j/kg which continues to decrease, however 0-500 mb shear is around 40 kts. CSU Machine Learning Program has backed off on severe weather parameters due to the ensembles having decreased instability, but there still is low chance for severe weather Monday. In addition to rain, windy conditions are expected Monday as a strong surface low with a tight pressure gradient moves through the region. Wrap around precipitation will continue through Wednesday leading to showers and cooler conditions. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 50s through the middle of the week. After this system washes out near normal temperatures will continue until potential ridge moves into the region late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR ceilings early this evening at all terminals. MVFR cigs will then develop at KMOT after 06Z early Saturday morning, and possibly at KXWA, KBIS, and KJMS after 12Z. MVFR cigs will slowly improve to VFR late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will taper off after 01Z. Isolated showers remain possible through 02Z, and across the north through tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...NH ####018005880#### FXUS61 KALY 040206 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1006 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 1005 PM EDT, an upper level ridge axis will be directly overhead tonight. High pressure off the New England coast will bring largely dry weather across the region with just some patchy mid and high clouds. Forecast soundings and the 00z KALY sounding shows rather dry air in the low- levels, so low cloud development later tonight looks fairly isolated. While most of the precipitation will remain to our west tonight, a few sprinkles may reach portions of Herkimer County after midnight. Temperatures have fallen into the 50s to lower 60s in most areas and remain on track to dip into the 40s to around 50 by daybreak. Previous Discussion: Just some areas of thin high clouds across NY State into western New England. Low level ridging in eastern New England slowly building offshore as upper ridging over our region providing some larger scale subsidence. Light southeast to south low level flow could support development of some low clouds tonight, especially in the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires, but low levels have been drying and inversions are being mixed out, so low clouds may be more sparse than last night. Clouds associated with the slowly approaching frontal system in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will stay mainly to the west overnight. Light winds and just thin high clouds will allow for some radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The axis of deeper moisture associated with the upper energy and associated warm and cold front will slowly approach through the day Saturday. Sources of guidance/ensembles suggest the leading edge of the deeper cloud cover and any rain is timed for very late Saturday afternoon and night. This suggests more periods of high clouds through the day with steady light south to southeast winds and highs in the 60s to around 70. Showers move into our region from southwest to northeast through the night Saturday night and by daybreak Sunday many areas will see showers. Depending on the timing, the onset of showers in the Capital Region and points north and east may be after daybreak Sunday. Then, clouds and showers across the entire region Sunday, limiting warming. There could be a rumble of thunder but chances are low with a lack of instability. Highs mainly in the 50s Sunday. Rain moves out Sunday night and there cold be a lingering early morning shower Monday. Then, weak cold advection begins with the exit of the upper system and cold front Monday. Highs Monday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Increasing clouds through the day, with around 70 higher terrain and near 80 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. By Wednesday through the rest of next week, split upper flow with northern stream upper energy slowly dropping out of Canada and a closed upper low slowly approaching from the northern and central plains. Confluent upper flow and associated moisture advection and low level jet forcing will result in showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night through Friday. There will be some periods of dry weather but there is a lot of spread in sources of guidance as to the timing of embedded smaller upper impulses and associated focused moisture, low level forcing and areas of showers. Still, the general upper pattern should support unsettled weather. So, again, indicating chances for showers Tuesday night through Friday. The threat for severe weather and/or heavy rain looks limited due to the relatively weak upper dynamics and weak low level forcing. Highs Wednesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Friday in the 60s with near 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and some 50s southern Adirondacks. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions are in place at the TAF sites and look to remain VFR through the upcoming TAF period. High pressure off the New England coast and upper-level energy to our west will bring occasional clouds across the TAF sites, but cigs should remain at or above 5 kft much of the period. Low cloud development looks less likely tonight but will monitor trends. Wind will be southeasterly for much of the TAF period at 4-8 kt tonight and around 10 kt on Saturday. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS/Rathbun SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Rathbun ####018006845#### FXUS62 KFFC 040207 AAB AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1007 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 947 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are underway generally along and north of I-20. A few storms were strong earlier this afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and small hail. Analyzed MUCAPE ranges from 500-1500 J/kg, so isolated thunderstorms will remain a possibility for the next few hours. The shortwave trough currently over MS and AL will draw closer overnight with increasing coverage of showers across the forecast area. Rumbles of thunder will be possible. Patchy fog will be possible as well amid the humid airmass and light to calm winds. Martin && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 At a glance: - Multiple waves of precipitation through the weekend - Brief reprieve from unseasonably warm temperatures Saturday north of I-20 At the surface, conditions are relatively benign, with the western fringes of surface high pressure still in place across the Southeast. The primary catalyst for our rather dreary weekend ahead will be a series of shortwaves traversing mid-level flow aloft, the strongest of which looks to move through Saturday afternoon. Development through this afternoon is likely to be patchy and summer-like, with slight chance to low-end chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday, with the arrival of better (but meager) forcing and a slug of mid-level moisture, rain chances are likely to be more widespread and weakly organized, with fewer breaks in between individual waves. For both days, MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances for severe weather. That said, PWATs creeping north of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May per the SPC's sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely to be slow-moving to stationary, and will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding. Highs today will continue the trend of being several degrees above average, in the upper 70s to 80s, with 90 in reach across south central Georgia. Tomorrow will be cooler north of I-20 -- highs in the 60s are not out of the question for portions of north Georgia, though generally in the 70s to near 80 -- thanks to greater coverage of clouds and thunderstorms. South of I-20, expect another day with temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid 80s. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 As the extended period picks up on Sunday morning, a shortwave disturbance will be positioned over the ArkLaTex. This disturbance will move northeastward over the course of the day on Sunday and into Monday, which will force continued scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The coverage of thunderstorms will moreover be diurnally enhanced in the afternoon hours each day. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for likely PoPs across the majority of north and central Georgia each afternoon, with some activity lingering into the evening each day. Low-level wind shear and dynamic support appears that it will be located nearest to the axis of the shortwave, which will pass north of the forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will advance slowly southward from the lower Midwest into the Tennessee River Valley. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is anticipated to overrun the front, which will help organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia. With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast and increased deep- layer bulk shear ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather on Thursday will need to be monitored as the forecast evolves. King && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Isolated SH and TS are underway across north and central GA. Have a TEMPO for MCN for TS given colliding outflow boundaries nearby. Will need to watch the SH west of ATL for lightning. CIGs will lower to MVFR/IFR and VIS to MVFR after ~09z through late tomorrow (Saturday) morning, during which time scattered SH are expected. MVFR/low-VFR conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon and early evening with scattered TS. Winds will be SE to SW at 3-8 kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on CIG/VIS evolution and SH/TS timing. High confidence on all other elements. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 64 79 62 83 / 50 70 50 60 Atlanta 65 81 64 83 / 60 70 40 60 Blairsville 60 74 59 78 / 60 70 50 80 Cartersville 63 81 62 83 / 60 60 40 60 Columbus 66 87 65 88 / 50 40 30 50 Gainesville 64 78 64 81 / 60 70 50 70 Macon 66 83 64 85 / 50 60 40 60 Rome 64 82 62 85 / 60 60 40 70 Peachtree City 64 83 62 84 / 60 70 30 60 Vidalia 68 83 66 87 / 40 50 30 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Martin ####018007902#### FXUS62 KMHX 040208 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1008 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 10 PM Friday... Stalled front remains draped over our northern tier as of this update bringing plenty of low stratus and even some fog across the NOBX and portions of mainland Dare as of this update. As a matter of fact we currently have ongoing marine dense fog advisories going through 11PM and an SPS for fog in the NOBX including Manteo through 12AM for the threat for patchy areas of fog with visibilities of less than 1/2 mile at times. Will reevaluate later this evening to see if these need to be extended. Do think fog should lift in the next few hours, but stratus should remain through the rest of tonight. Current expectation is for stalled front to remain in place but for patchy fog and low stratus to continue to march SW'wards this evening eventually encompassing the entire forecast area as low level moisture continues to increase and a low level inversion sets up. We remain dry overall as lows get into the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s. Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 715 PM Friday... Mainly VFR ceilings and vis across ENC with the lone exception being across the NOBX and far NE'rn zones where low stratus and patchy fog have begun to advect SW'wards across the area behind a stalling cold front resulting in a mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings. Current forecast has this low stratus continuing to march SW'wards eventually impacting EWN and OAJ first between 06-08Z and then PGV/ISO next around 8-10Z. As a result, MVFR ceilings are forecast across all terminals for a brief time between 05-08Z followed quickly by IFR/LIFR ceilings. In addition to this, with low level E'rly flow advecting inland, some patchy fog is likely as well primarily east of Hwy 17 across EWN/OAJ terminals though ISO could see a brief period of lower vis early Sat morning as well. This fog threat is fairly conditional and more likely due to low stratus developing into fog overnight but did want to include reduced vis in the forecast given the fairly strong signal across the HI-Res guidance. Through tonight winds generally remain light and variable. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings will linger into the early afternoon with IFR ceilings lifting from west to east between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to include this in the TAF's. LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub- VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 1010 PM Friday... Only update since the previous one was to include a marine dense fog advisory for portions of the NOBX coastal waters and the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds as latest webcam imagery and obs have shown continued visibilities of 1 NM or less here. Will reevaluate within the next hour or so but this marine dense fog advisory may need to be extended further depending on what obs look like. Prev Disc...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts. Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras. Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/RCF MARINE...SGK/RJ ####018004228#### FXUS61 KCAR 040208 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1008 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region tonight through Saturday, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday. An occluded front will cross the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1008 PM Update: Clouds continue to move west out of New Brunswick into the area this evening, with skies becoming overcast through the night from east to west. A brief increase in wind gusts has been observed on the leading edge of this stratus deck, which is associated with a weak backdoor front around 850mb. No other impacts are expected from this feature. Previous Discussion: High pressure, surface/aloft, will remain ridged across the region tonight through Saturday. Moisture beneath the subsidence inversion, along with clouds wrapping back across the region from the Maritimes, will keep partly/mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area tonight. Diurnal cloud development and clouds wrapping back from the Maritimes will keep partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the region Saturday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to around 40 across the forecast area. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the forecast area. However, mid to upper 50s will occur along the Downeast coast where onshore winds will develop. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure should remain centered over NB Saturday night. Upper air model soundings indicate a moisture low layer throughout the night, thus cloudy skies are expected. Temps should be fairly mild with S flow and light winds. By Sunday, a weakening occluded frontal boundary starts to approach from the west. Clouds and S winds should increase into the afternoon with the tightening pressure gradients. By the evening, the chance for rain showers should spread to the eastern border. By Sunday night, rain showers will continue with decreasing S winds. QPF models show the majority of rain staying to the south as the low intensifies. By Monday, the system will pick up speed and pull the rest of the rain showers out of the region. The 925mb model temps show a warm airmass behind the system, which should bring temps above normal for the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure returns to the region Monday night and remains in the area through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the extended models are picking up on some shortwave energy moving across the waters. However, the 12z model runs showing the rain staying far to the south. The NBM had to much precip in the forecast for the end of the week due to these shortwave systems, so decreased precip to chance or slight chance. The models lose consistency by the weekend. Temps should be near normal. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR early tonight, with cigs falling towards SCT to BKN MVFR across Downeast terminals, and BKN to OVC MVFR at northern terminals overnight. Cigs will trend back towards VFR through the day on Saturday. Winds NE around 5 kts, shifting SE around 5 kts on Saturday. SHORT TERM: Sun night...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with ocnl shwrs. Lgt Winds. Mon...all TAF sites VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in Aftn shwrs msly Nrn TAF sites. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the day. Mon night-Wed...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions through this period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/LaFlash