####018002416#### FXUS62 KKEY 040238 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1038 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 932 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently - A rather complicated multi-lobed high complex blankets is spread across the eastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic. This is driving moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Meanwhile, a relatively narrow upper ridge is aligned along the Atlantic coast. This evenings sounding indicated a backing lower level profile and poor moisture content. Precipitable water was just above one inch with virtually zero inhibition, while surface dew points are around 70. As a result, all shower activity this evening has been located along lee side boundaries emanating off of South Florida and Andros Island. None of this activity has been anywhere near the island chain. The healthy flow has slowed night time cooling and temperatures remain near 80. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned high complex will move towards consolidation through the overnight period consolidate some with little movement. Expect northeast to easterly breezes to moderate some through the night. With that said, the steady flow will all but ensure slightly above normal overnight lows and dew points will remain near 70. A few showers cannot be ruled out as lower level moisture is expected to increase slightly and inhibition will remain limited at best. && .MARINE... Issued at 932 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure centered off the Carolina Coast will result in moderate to fresh easterly breezes on Keys waters. In the short term, winds are peaking now and should diminish slightly through the remainder of the night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Moderate easterly breezes will gradually diminish slightly through the night. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest ####018005616#### FXUS64 KHUN 040243 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 943 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 943 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms that impacted much of the Tennessee Valley in the later afternoon and this evening, for the most part have ended. However, a few areas of showers remained. The last of showers that were over the Cullman/Marshall county area were slowly weakening as they moved across DeKalb county. A weak disturbance that moved northward across NW Alabama has in part helped new convection form along the AL/TN border. Other light showers over parts of the area were on a fading trend. With less showers and new model output indicating little to no additional showers, have trimmed down rain chances areawide. With numerous boundaries lurking from previous activity, along with a still conditionally unstable environment, development cannot be totally ruled out. Another mild night is expected as low temperatures cool into the low/mid 60s. One worry is a potential for the development of fog in the late night. Much of the area has received measurable rainfall in the last day. If denser high clouds move east of the area, less clouds and a light wind could allow fog to form. But with on-going rain chances and and low/mid altitude moisture remaining, have not bought the fog solution; but it is something not to totally rule out. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday, and the remainder of the short term, offers the same forecast challenges. A weak syntopic pattern remains in place with broad mid level ridging to our east allowing for subsequent shortwaves to ripple through the area. The passage of a shortwave tomorrow afternoon will again trigger our highest chances and highest coverage of rain and storms. Once again, tricky pop up convection remains a possibility starting in the late morning ahead of the shortwave. This pattern continues on Sunday into Monday as a mid level trough in the Plains pushes at least two more shortwaves through the area. This will maintain medium to high PoPs across the CWA with highest coverage of rain and storms reserved for each afternoon. While each day will pose a threat for frequent lightning and heavy rainfall, no severe weather is anticipated through the duration of the short term. As for anticipated rainfall, overall weekend QPF amounts will likely vary greatly in spatial coverage. With favorable environmental factors in place for efficient rainfall production, showers could easily dump a quarter to a half inch in a brief period of time for isolated areas. While this alone is not enough to raise flooding concerns, periods of heavy rainfall could continue to trigger ponding of water and nuisance flooding for urban area. When it's not raining, the tropical airmass will make for a very humid weekend. Highs remain in the low 80s with dewpoints in the high 60s each day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 433 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 After warm frontal convection spreads northeastward and out of the region late Monday morning, the TN Valley will be solidly within a very warm/moist tropical airmass, with dewpoints expected to rise into the m-u 60s as southwesterly low-level flow strengthens. Although this will contribute to greater instability (especially during the afternoon hours), a mid-level ridge will shift across the region downstream from the central Rockies upper low as it begins to spread northeastward into the northern Plains, and this should yield a lower coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Overnight lows will steadily increase into the u60s-l70s through the middle of next week (due to both elevated SW winds and moisture advection), with highs also warming into the mid (to perhaps upper) 80s by Wednesday. Although details are unclear at this time range, conditions will become more favorable for convection at the end of the extended period (Wednesday night/Thursday), perhaps in the form of MCS activity that may initiate along a cold front to our northwest and propagate southeastward into the local area. Should this scenario materialize, conditions will be favorable for organized severe thunderstorms across our region, with boundary layer dewpoints in the u60s-l70s beneath a belt of mid-level WSW flow of 35-45 knots. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continued across the area, with a general motion to the NE around 15kt. Additional development is possible over the next few hours, with generally dry conditions returning for the late evening and overnight. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected. Before daybreak Sat, there is a risk of patchy fog forming in/near areas that recently received heavy rainfall. Otherwise daytime heating and resultant instability could allow more showers and storms to form Sat afternoon. Given uncertainty on development and where the activity will impact, have a VCTS for the latter portion of the TAF at both terminals. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...RSB