####018005611#### FXUS64 KEWX 040254 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS... Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for all counties in the watch but Val Verde. A severe storm in Kimble County is moving slowly south and will move into portions of northwest Kerr and northeast Edwards Counties over the next hour. Eventual weakening should take place as the storm encounter increasing convective inhibition. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS... Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Left mover from an earlier cell split over Mexico missed Val Verde County and has moved into Crockett County. The right mover and complex of other storms in Mexico will continue southeast. WoFS and HRRR have caught onto this, and there is a potential these storms could clip Maverick County around 8-9PM. Otherwise, we will watch closely the complex of severe storms to the south of San Angelo as they move south. WoFS indicate they could make it into northeast Edwards and northwest Kerr County around 9PM. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to early overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day, there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings are forecast to re-develop tonight across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, along with drizzle and fog in some areas. Ongoing TSRAs to the north and west of the region are forecast to weaken late this evening and should not impact the I-35 corridor terminals. Earlier TSRA split missed DRT, and have thus removed mention of TSRA from their TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 85 69 82 / 20 20 70 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 85 68 82 / 20 10 60 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 71 84 / 20 10 60 50 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 67 80 / 20 30 70 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 91 72 87 / 20 30 70 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 83 67 80 / 20 30 70 60 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 69 83 / 20 20 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 69 83 / 20 10 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 85 72 82 / 20 10 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 86 71 83 / 20 10 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 72 89 72 85 / 20 10 60 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...27 Aviation...05 ####018003133#### FXUS63 KUNR 040254 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 854 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain shifting east out of the forecast area this evening. -Warmer and breezy this weekend. -Strong storm system early next week with the potential for several hazards: locally heavy rain Monday/Tuesday (northeastern Wyoming/northwestern South Dakota), high winds Tuesday/Wednesday, some snow for the Black Hills Tuesday/Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 144 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Cold upper low across southern Canada continues to lift out of the region this afternoon. Southern periphery impulse along the stalled baroclinic zone has supported rain/snow across the southeast half today and will continue to shift ESE with the associated FGEN area. Expect rain to develop and shift SE across scentral SD this afternoon and taper off by evening. Skies will clear out across most places tonight with dry air spreading into the region. This will allow for a cool night with lows in the 20s/30s and some teens in the Black Hills. Warmer and dry Sat with highs generally in the 60s. Strong western CONUS upper trough will then shift east into the Rockies and support pressure falls over the region Sun. This will force increasing SE winds, becoming quite breezy by afternoon across the NW SD plains where adv winds are likely. Pos theta-e adv with a weakening cap may allow for a thunderstorm or two over NE WY in the afternoon. However, better chances for more widespread rains will arrive Sunday night with the main moisture surge and WAA. Strong storm system will then move onto the plains Monday, with the sfc trough/dryline shifting east across southwest through scentral SD. Current progs suggest that the severe threat will remain south and east of the FA, but if things slow down some, there may be a small window for severe weather across far scentral SD. Further west, deformation rains will spread into the region along with gusty NW winds. Adv to low end warning winds will be possible Monday across much of western SD, with the bulk of wind in NW SD. However, rains may limit mixing and gust potentials. As the upper low stalls and then slowly migrates east, winds, rain, and cool weather will persist through Wed night. Rain will change to snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills Monday night with some light accums possible. However, the better chance for snow accums looks to be Tue night into Wed when colder air advects into the region. Things will begin to slowly warm up and dry out toward next weekend as the upper low finally exits the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued At 852 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Wong