####018005792#### FXUS64 KTSA 040259 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 959 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 956 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms moving north into central Oklahoma at this time will likely dissipate or remain west of our area. The current forecast is on track with the MCS currently across western Kansas moving east southeast into parts of northeast Oklahoma late tonight or early Saturday morning. The only change to the forecast this evening is to remove the low pops in parts of western Arkansas tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A complex of storms is expected to develop across Kansas this evening and progress east southeastward overnight tonight. the leading edge of this MCS will begin to nudge into parts of northeast Oklahoma by early Saturday morning with some gusty winds possible along the leading edge along with heavy rainfall. Overall, the complex should be in a weakening state as it moves through northeast Oklahoma throughout the rest of the morning hours. Still locally heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger cores with high moisture content over the region. The rest of the day Saturday will see lower chances (20-40%) for some lingering showers and storms in the wake of the decaying MCS and whatever outflow boundaries are leftover from that. Heading into Sunday, increasing chances for widespread showers and storms are expected as a shortwave trough lifts northeastward out of central Texas and tracks across eastern Oklahoma during the day. The severe threat will remain low during this time, but isolated severe potential will exists with the more persistent updrafts. The main threat will be locally heavy rainfall on top of already very saturated soils. Rainfall throughout the last week has been in the 5 to 7 inch range for a good chunk of eastern Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is likely for much of the area with locally higher amounts quickly causing concern for flash flooding and flooding of urban or low lying areas due to excessive runoff. It won't take much for flooding to occur, so have opted to issue a Flood Watch for the entire forecast area given the saturated conditions and already high rivers and streams. The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as an upper low ejects out into the Central to Northern Plains and meanders for several days. This will allow for moderately strong westerly to southwesterly flow aloft to develop over the Southern Plains and last through much of the week. Concurrently, a surface cold front will drop southeastward into Kansas and become stalled, while a dryline extend southward into Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will serve as the focus for daily shower and storm chances for much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The strong flow aloft combined with a warm and moist boundary layer will support severe potential with any storms that develop. Monday will be the first day to watch in the period as the main upper trough swings into the Plains. Best storm chances will exist across northern Oklahoma closer to the large scale ascent as an expanding elevated mixed layer (EML) spread over the Southern Plains likely capping convection further south along the dryline. Still, a couple storms will be possible along the dryline with all severe hazards possible. Details will continue to come into better focus as Monday gets closer. The surface front is progged to drop down into eastern Oklahoma on Wednesday, which would enhance shower and storm chances Wednesday afternoon as well. Again, all severe hazards appear possible at this time. Everyday next week through at least Thursday, looks like a day to watch as the environment will be supportive of severe potential each day. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A few isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible for the next hour across NW AR before dissipating with loss of heating. Lower stratus deck will begin to spread north into portions eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning with patchy fog possible across northwest Arkansas. A few storms may move into the KBVO area late tonight. There is some potential for convection that is developing across western Kansas to form a complex with scatted storms impacting portions of northeast Oklahoma around 12Z along outflow boundary. Latest HRRR suggest this activity will likely be weakening by this time. Scattered storms will remain possible through the day Saturday near stalled outflow boundary or with cold front moving into northeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 79 60 73 / 30 70 60 80 FSM 64 82 65 76 / 10 40 50 90 MLC 66 81 63 75 / 10 50 70 90 BVO 61 76 55 72 / 40 60 50 80 FYV 61 80 60 74 / 10 50 50 90 BYV 61 80 60 72 / 0 50 40 80 MKO 64 78 62 72 / 20 60 60 90 MIO 61 77 58 71 / 20 70 40 80 F10 63 78 61 72 / 20 70 70 90 HHW 64 78 65 75 / 10 30 60 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12