####018006552#### FXUS61 KGYX 040325 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1125 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near the coast will provide dry conditions through Saturday, with increasing onshore flow this weekend. Thickening clouds, cooler temperatures and rain showers are expected by Sunday as the high drifts north. Clearing likely not coming until Monday behind a passing cold front. Warmer and sunnier conditions are expected into Tuesday, then more unsettled weather returns around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 11:20pm Update... The forecast remains on track this evening, with valley fog starting to develop across the north. This patchy fog is expected to expand in coverage overnight as temps continue to slowly fall further. 7:15pm Update... No notable changes with this update as the forecast remains on track. Updated temps and dew points based on trends and the latest high res guidance this evening. Patchy fog still looks on track tonight as only high cirrus filters through, and moisture increases through the low levels. Previous... Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a cu field over the region along with some passing cirrus. There continues to be breaks in this cloud cover though, which has allowed temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 60s in most locations, although mainly in the 50s along the coast due to weak onshore flow. It will continue to be a dry afternoon and evening with temperatures cooling into the 50s areawide. A positively tilted h5 ridge axis will remain overhead tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies but continued dry conditions. Patchy fog is possible overnight depending on cloud cover but the latest HREF suggests this likely won't bring visibilities below 1 mile in most locations. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s across the north to the lower and middle 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The mid-level ridge axis remains overhead on Saturday with sfc low pressure over the Gulf of Maine. Partly sunny skies during the first half of the day will likely become mostly cloudy by the afternoon as a weak vorticity maximum crosses. Light and variable winds combined with daytime heating will likely result in a seabreeze. Highs will range from the lower to middle 60s across the interior with cooler 50s along the coast. Surface high pressure will begin to retreat to the northeast Saturday night but the h5 ridge axis will remain overhead. Other than a stray shower over western NH towards dawn it will be another dry night with patchy fog once again possible. Low temperatures will primarily be into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overview: Unsettled weather expected for the second half of the weekend as a cold front nears Sunday and passes Monday morning. High pressure and warm temperatures arrive the latter part of Monday, continuing into Tuesday. Additional unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as broad low pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Details: Onshore flow will be underway Sunday with mostly cloudy skies. Skies will be more overcast to start the day across NH, mainly as the area sees greater moisture advection ahead of approaching cold front. There is some uncertainty on daytime highs Sunday, mainly due to this onshore flow and increasing cloud cover. Went on the cooler side of guidance for now, but current forecast spread for high temps varies by 5 to 7 degrees across much of the area. Rain will arrive with the cold front in the evening, beginning as showers and then more persistent rain overnight. Rainfall amounts should remain around a quarter inch or less, but some showers could enhance local amounts higher than this value. The associated cold front begins to lose its deeper moisture as it tracks into New England, as probabilities for greater precipitation lie to the west. Perhaps some remaining drizzle along the coast early Monday morning, but drying across the CWA should be underway by mid morning. NW breeze will also kick up to enhance drying through the afternoon. Should this stay on track, temperatures will be in for a rebound later in the day with highs in the 70s possible for southern NH and into southern Maine's interior. Tuesday follows up as warm and dry, before another period of unsettled weather for mid to late week. Current NBM PoPs are likely overdone due to the wide spread of guidance solutions, and have tried to emphasize this uncertainty by keeping just a chance of rain to close out the week. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through much of tonight, although pockets of MVFR to locally IFR restrictions are possible late due to lower ceilings and FG. Mainly VFR conditions are then likely after 15Z Saturday, although pockets of MVFR are possible, especially at coastal TAF sites. Ceilings will then gradually lower again Saturday night with potential patchy fog. Light and variable winds tonight through Saturday morning will become southeasterly later Saturday before becoming light and variable again Saturday night. No LLWS is expected. Long Term...MVFR skies start the day Sunday, perhaps lifting to VFR in the afternoon. However, general trend will be back to MVFR/IFR Sun night into Monday morning. Rain and fog may cause vis restrictions overnight. Ceilings should improve to VFR at all terminals into Monday afternoon through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds through at least Saturday night with high pressure over the waters. Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly on Saturday. Long Term...Conditions should remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday, but there may be periods of visibility restriction Sunday and Sunday night in fog amid onshore flow. Winds increase overnight as a cold front nears. The cold front will pass over the waters Monday morning, bringing better vis conditions through Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Tubbs LONG TERM...Cornwell