####018006821#### FXUS64 KSHV 040401 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1101 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Much quieter night, as current radar shows nothing across the region. Short-term progs suggest this will continue overnight, although the GFS has some possible isolated activity in our northern zones after midnight. There is also a decaying cluster of convection moving eastward out of North and Central Texas towards the region. Given the moist and somewhat unstable environment in place, wouldn't be surprised if an isolated shower or thunderstorm developed anywhere across the area overnight, especially when that decaying boundary moves into the area. Also, there is the potential for some dense fog, especially across our Louisiana and South-Central Arkansas zones. Decided to hold off on any advisories at this time, but this will need to be monitored closely, as we are already seeing reduced vsbys in portions of the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection that originated across Oklahoma and North Texas late yesterday has finally departed the area as a shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the Tennessee River Valley. Farther southwest, another weak perturbation in the southwesterly flow aloft has helped to sustained showers and thunderstorms along a remnant outflow boundary across Southeast Texas and South Louisiana. Radar trends over the last couple of hours continue to show redevelopment along the northwest flank of this line in Central Texas. So far, this activity has been quickly weakening with eastward extent as it nears our Deep East Texas counties, mostly likely encountering a more stable airmass. Current thinking is the heaviest precip should remain south and southwest of the area and should dissipate by sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and weakening of large scale forcing. The latest CAMs suggest a few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this evening and tonight, mainly north of Interstate 20, but only slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast. Overnight, another complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form ahead of a cold front across Kansas and Oklahoma, which should dive southeast towards the CWA. This complex should be weakening as it moves into southeast Oklahoma around daybreak Saturday. However, renewed development and intensification is expected, especially during peak daytime heating in the afternoon. Based on the latest CAMs and short- range ensembles, current thinking coverage will mainly be scattered but will likely coverage much of the area. Given the expected coverage, I felt the NBM PoPs were too way and much of the short-term rain chances were trended toward the HREF. There should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds, especially during Saturday afternoon through early evening. Initial development in the afternoon may begin as far north as I-30 before spreading southeast across the region. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another complex of strong to severe storms will develop along the dryline in West Texas and may begin to affect the area early Sunday morning. CN && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Robust convection will likely be ongoing across the area near or shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. While the cold front is once again expected to stall in our northern zones before retreating back to the north again, a potent shortwave trough moving across Texas and Oklahoma should help sustain strong thunderstorms for much of the day Sunday. A few isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly posing a risk for damaging winds. Rain chances should diminish during the evening as the shortwave lifts northeast and forcing weakens. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in Deep East Texas south of I-20. However, current thinking is that the threat for flooding will remain isolated and localized, and it will have been a few days between rain events. However, if QPF amounts increase in future forecasts, a Flood Watch may need to be issued. Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast into next week with near daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of I-20 as deep southerly flow persists across the region. A longwave trough will move northeast across the Central and Northern Plains pushing a cold front closer to the region. This should bring a chance for more strong, possibly, severe thunderstorms to parts of the area next Tuesday and Wednesday. The extent of the severe weather threat is still highly uncertain, but the best chances appear to be north of I-20, and especially across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. Another growing concern will be the unseasonable heat. Strong southerly flow and warm air advection will result in rising temperatures despite the persistent rain chances in the forecast. From Tuesday through Thursday, there is a high chance (60 to 80 percent chance) of daytime high temperatures of 90 degrees F or greater across much of Louisiana and into portions of Southwest Arkansas and Deep East Texas. Combined with the high humidity, peak heat index values should be near or above 100 degrees F. Cooler temperatures may return by the end of the week. CN && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Clear skies will begin to fill back in once the sun sets, with IFR and LIFR CIGS anticipated across most terminals by 04/08z. Patchy fog will also be possible into the morning as winds decouple, with reduced VIS anticipated at KMLU and KELD. However, skies will clear out past 04/18z back into VFR conditions under peak afternoon heating. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 85 68 79 / 20 50 40 80 MLU 64 86 67 80 / 20 40 30 60 DEQ 66 82 65 75 / 20 40 50 90 TXK 67 84 66 78 / 20 40 40 80 ELD 63 84 65 79 / 20 50 30 70 TYR 67 82 66 78 / 20 40 60 80 GGG 66 83 67 78 / 10 50 50 80 LFK 66 84 68 80 / 10 40 40 80 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...44 ####018005228#### FXUS64 KEWX 040405 AAE AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1105 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 We have allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire. The lone severe storm over northeast Edwards County is weakening as it moves into a more stable area. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS... Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for all counties in the watch but Val Verde. A severe storm in Kimble County is moving slowly south and will move into portions of northwest Kerr and northeast Edwards Counties over the next hour. Eventual weakening should take place as the storm encounter increasing convective inhibition. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to early overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day, there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings are forecast to re-develop tonight across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor, along with drizzle and fog in some areas. Ongoing TSRAs to the north and west of the region are forecast to weaken late this evening and should not impact the I-35 corridor terminals. Earlier TSRA split missed DRT, and have thus removed mention of TSRA from their TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 85 69 82 / 20 20 70 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 85 68 82 / 20 10 60 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 71 84 / 20 10 60 50 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 67 80 / 50 30 70 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 91 72 87 / 20 30 70 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 83 67 80 / 40 30 70 60 Hondo Muni Airport 70 88 69 83 / 20 20 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 69 83 / 20 10 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 85 72 82 / 20 10 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 86 71 83 / 20 10 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 72 89 72 85 / 20 10 60 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...27 Aviation...76