####018004887#### FXUS64 KOUN 040436 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Texas South Plains later this afternoon. The remnants of this activity--especially any left splits--may affect western north Texas this evening before dissipating. However, with the trend of initiation farther to the southwest, it appears the chance of severe weather will be spatiotemporally limited. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas and consolidate into a complex with the remnants moving into northern Oklahoma late tonight into Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will have a threat for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall, which should weaken with southward extent. By Saturday afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours along the boundary from the morning thunderstorms across Oklahoma. In addition, a complex of thunderstorms will likely develop across the Texas panhandle and western north Texas that will move eastward across at least the southern half of the area during the overnight hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and flooding will be the potential hazards with the primary hazard becoming flooding. Given the recent heavy rainfall, we issued a Flood Watch from 7 PM tonight through 1 PM Sunday for all locations except northwest into west central Oklahoma (where rainfall amounts have been lighter the last week). Additional heavy rainfall will result in a risk of flooding through Sunday morning. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Monday: There is the potential for a significant severe weather event Monday afternoon and evening. A negatively tilted trough will eject into the Plains on Monday with a moist, highly sheared, and unstable air mass ahead of a dryline. The synoptic-scale pattern is a classic severe weather outbreak across the Plains with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. While there is some variation on the mesoscale details among deterministic models and ensemble members (e.g., character of the mid/upper level trough, location of the dryline, and the magnitude of capping) that will affect the location and magnitude the severe weather risk, it is important to stay weather aware on Monday as the worst case scenario (i.e., How bad could it be?) for the event is quite high with the potential for significant supercells. Tuesday: As the mid-level trough lifts to the northeast, the trailing dryline may stall across east central into southeast Oklahoma. While the dryline will be somewhat diffuse, there is a low chance thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon with a modest mid-level flow persisting across the Southern Plains. Wednesday: Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma with the dryline still in place. Thursday: There may finally be a lull in the risk for severe weather with a cold front moving through the area with a drier air mass advecting southward into the area. Mahale && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR and MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period except for possibly KDUA where IFR ceilings could be possible early Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area, generally along and north of I-40 overnight. A cold front will also begin to move into the area overnight and continue to move SE across the area with showers/storms possible with the front through Saturday morning. Additional showers/storms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening along any remnant boundaries and/or moving into southern parts of the area. Winds will shift to the N and NE behind the cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 63 76 60 72 / 30 70 80 80 Hobart OK 59 74 57 74 / 40 70 90 60 Wichita Falls TX 63 79 62 76 / 30 50 90 60 Gage OK 52 69 51 75 / 80 50 60 40 Ponca City OK 61 73 56 71 / 60 70 60 70 Durant OK 64 79 64 77 / 20 40 70 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-023>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...25 ####018004973#### FXUS63 KOAX 040437 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1137 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight hours with a 5 to 10% chance of damaging hail and wind. - There is a chance of severe thunderstorms (15 to 30 percent chance) Monday afternoon and evening. - Additional chances for showers and storms possible through the end of the week, but no organized threat for severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This afternoon - Saturday: There are still some high clouds around the area this afternoon, causing some echos to show up on radar, but we're not seeing anything reach the ground. Winds are out of the southeast and temperatures are in the upper 60s to around 70 here around 2 PM, and should rise into the low 70s for highs this afternoon. We're watching a cold front associated with a low pressure system out over the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon which will move through overnight tonight. This will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through around 10 PM to 6 AM. We are under a marginal risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The environment out ahead of the cold front does have up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE indicating enough instability for thunderstorms, and combined with 50-60 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear indicates a threat of up to quarter-size hail and damaging winds. This line should move through fairly quickly, but we could see up to an inch or more of rain in places. Once the main line moves through, expect a post-frontal rain shield to trail the main line, tapering off an hour or two later. Low clouds will hang around through the morning on Saturday, with the sun coming out Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs only in the low-to-mid 60s with breezy winds out of the north gusting to 25 mph in the morning, dropping off during the afternoon. Sunday-Monday: Another upper-level trough will start to dig into the Four- Corners region on Sunday, approaching our area. Sunday should be a fairly nice day with light winds in the morning becoming southeasterly and starting to increase during the afternoon ahead of the approaching system. Temperatures will stay on the cooler side with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. We'll see the surface low start to develop on the lee side of the Rockies Sunday evening with a surge of moisture lifting north out of the Gulf of Mexico associated with the Low-Level Jet across central and eastern Nebraska. We probably won't see precipitation start Sunday night, but we'll see increasing clouds with chances for rain starting Monday morning. We'll want to watch Monday evening for potential severe weather as the main upper-level wave pushes the dry-line across our area. This is our best opportunity for severe weather, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. There is some possibility that stronger storms developing to our south cut off a lot of our moisture which could limit our severe potential, as the greater severe weather threat does appear to be to our south. We do still want to monitor this time frame, though. Storms do appear likely to be out of our area by Tuesday morning. Tuesday-Thursday: No other notable severe weather risks to mention through the rest of the forecast. We do see a shortwave move through Tuesday night that could bring another round of more modest storms through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Through the end of the week we see a broad trough set up across much of the central CONUS with a fairly baroclinic pattern that could bring additional low chances for showers and storms, but no organized threat for severe weather. High temperatures stay in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The main concern of the TAF period continues to be the line of storms moving into eastern Nebraska over the next few hours. Those storms have already moved into the KOFK vicinity with lightning and rain, though ceilings and visibilities have yet to take a hit into MVFR or lower. Gusts as strong as 40 kts appear likely at KLNK when the line arrives around 0530 to 0600z, while areas north near KOMA see less intense storms with gusts as strong as 30 kts from 0645 to 0800z. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to take a hit behind the main line, with low-end MVFR ceilings and visibilities forecast through around or just after sunrise, with the area seeing clouds move out by late afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Petersen ####018006475#### FXUS66 KSGX 040439 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 930 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly cloudy cool weather will prevail this weekend with gusty winds in the mountains and deserts and periods of showers over and west of the mountains. Southwest to west winds will increase in strength through the day Saturday, peaking Saturday night and early Sunday. Some drizzle may occur Saturday morning, but the best chances of accumulating rain will be Saturday night and early Sunday. Dry and warmer conditions will prevail Monday through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Low clouds along the coast were already spreading into the valleys at mid-evening, with stratus covering all valley areas by late tonight with some drizzle forming as well. Current progs suggest the timing of most of the measurable rain to be 11 PM Saturday through 9 AM Sunday, generally from northwest to southeast with the cold front associated with the system. Rainfall still is forecasted to be mostly light, under 1/4" except local amounts over 1/2" in a few coastal-slope locations of the mountains. Like is typical with spring systems, the wind will be a factor, with a few gusts around 70 MPH Saturday night through San Gorgonio Pass and along a few of the desert mountain slopes. From previous discussion... A low pressure system is on track to move inland through California on Saturday night and dig into the Great Basin on Sunday. This system will bring cooler, cloudier, windier (in the mountains and deserts), and wetter conditions (in and west of the mountains) to Southern California this weekend. Southwest to west winds will begin to increase Saturday afternoon, peaking in strength Saturday night into Sunday, gradually diminishing into Sunday night. Winds will be strongest on the desert mountain slopes, through passes, and into portions of the deserts. Peak gusts of 55 to 65 mph expected. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance that a few isolated gusts to 70 mph are possible in wind prone locations on the desert foothills of the San Bernardino mountains and near the San Gorgonio Pass late Saturday night. Winds will gradually weaken into Sunday night. For much of next week, a broad troughing pattern over the United States will enhanced the onshore pressure gradient, bringing periods of breezy westerly winds to the mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening. A weak coastal eddy is expected to help deepen the marine layer overnight. This could result in patchy drizzle for the coast and valleys tonight into Saturday morning. The best chance for showers and accumulating rain is late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Shower coverage will be scattered with mostly light amounts expected to accumulate. A few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain are expected for the coast and valleys. One-quarter to locally one-half inch expected on the coastal slopes of the mountains with the greater amounts most likely on the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. A trace of snow is expected above 7000 ft. This will be a quick moving system and dry conditions are expected by early Sunday afternoon. Highs Saturday are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees below average for the coast and valleys, and near average for the deserts. Sunday will be even cooler, especially for inland areas with highs 10 to 15, locally up to 20 degrees below average for the valleys, mountains, and deserts. Cold conditions expected Monday morning, especially in the High Desert where lows are forecast to fall to the mid to upper 30s. The highs on Monday will make up for the cool conditions Sunday and Monday morning, with temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Sunday for the mountains and High Desert. Conditions are expected to gradually warm into the end of next week. && .AVIATION... 040350Z...Coasts/Valleys/Foothills...Patchy low clouds with bases 2000-2500 FT MSL are occurring this evening. Clouds will fill in across the coast/western valleys through 07z Sat, reaching the Inland Empire/foothills after 10z Sat. Bases may lower a few hundred feet overnight. Terrain obscurations where low clouds and terrain intersect. Scatter out 17z-20z Sat across the valleys, with coastal sites seeing intermittent cigs through the afternoon. Mountains/Deserts...W-SW winds developing after 20z Sat with the strongest winds occurring after 00z Sun. Expect W-SW winds 20-35 kt with gusts of 45-60 kt. Areas of MOD-STG up/downdrafts and LLWS over/east of mtns. Otherwise...Clear skies with unrestricted VIS will continue into Sat morning, with increasing high clouds AOA 15,000 FL MSL on Sat. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday morning. Gusty northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots will occur Saturday evening through Sunday evening, which will generate hazardous boating conditions, especially in the outer waters. Northwest wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible over the outer waters each afternoon and evening Monday through the middle of next week. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...Maxwell (Update)/CO (Previous Discussion) AVIATION/MARINE...EA