####018005580#### FXUS64 KLIX 040455 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1155 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Overall, forecast is in decent shape, although may push an update just to remove evening low end PoPs from northwest corner of the CWA. Will also update hourly temperature/dew point grids to reflect current trends, but not adjusting overnight lows at this time. There is at least a small threat of fog over southwest Mississippi overnight for a few hours, but we've already got a mention of fog there. Not enough confidence to justify an advisory at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the CWA. After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it's steadily weakened and is barely discernible on radar. Even with an embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi, there's no appreciable winds associated with it. The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating around sunset. For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the southwest and trough to the northwest. There's some hints on the 500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area. Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible. Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development of afternoon storms. Looking at same area of impact...SW MS and adjacent LA parishes. Probably won't see much, if any, convection south of I-12. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that's at or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be elevated for sensitive groups. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Most terminals are VFR at issuance time, but KGPT and KASD have developed BKN018 ceilings over the last hour. There is certainly some low level moisture around after the rainfall Friday afternoon, but the question will be whether we end up with fog or stratus again toward sunrise, as has been the question the last few nights. Multiple MCS to our west from the northern Plains to the Rio Grande River, with cirrus spreading this way, but thinning as they approach. Dew points are about 5-8 degrees lower than they were 24 hours ago, but so are temperatures. For now, the expectation is that stratus near FL010 will be the main occurrence at most terminals, with the exceptions being KMCB and KHUM where TEMPO LIFR conditions will be carried around sunrise. Expect MVFR ceilings at most or all terminals at mid morning Saturday as cumulus field develops, but could see improvement to VFR at midday. Threat of SHRA/TSRA appears to be lower on Saturday, but some models carrying a weak shortwave that could trigger scattered cells, with the "most" favored terminal KMCB. That's the only one we'll carry a mention for now. Anything that does develop should dissipate toward sunset, with the same cycle anticipated overnight tomorrow night. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts. Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 85 64 83 / 20 30 10 40 BTR 68 89 69 87 / 20 20 0 40 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 71 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 20 GPT 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 67 87 / 10 10 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION/UPDATE...RW MARINE...ME ####018007792#### FXUS63 KDDC 040457 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1157 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much needed rainfall expected across much of southwest Kansas Friday night and early Saturday. Some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - North winds and cooler air Saturday. - Severe thunderstorms are expected in Kansas Monday, with the risk of hail and tornadoes east of US 283 Monday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Midday surface observations showed moist advection well underway into SW KS, with southeast winds established, and dewpoints rising with time. Southeast winds will continue to increase through this afternoon, as surface pressures fall from SE Colorado into NW KS. With satellite imagery indicating midlevel cloud eroding quickly, temperatures will easily warm into the 70s this afternoon. With a lack of a forcing mechanism, kept the forecast dry (pops < 15%) through 7 pm. That stated, some CAMs such as 12z ARW suggests thunderstorms may be entering the far NW zones (Hamilton) around that time. Any initial thunderstorm activity Friday evening would favor the western zones, west of US 83, in a modest CAPE/shear parameter space supportive of at least marginal supercell structures. Rotating updrafts will be capable of 1-2 inch diameter hail this evening. Clearly the much richer moisture will remain locked up in West Texas through tonight, so moisture quality will be limited, keeping instability relatively muted. Still, dewpoints well into the 50s will support organized linear convection along and behind the expected strong cold front tonight. The cold front is forecast to reach the far NW zones about 10 pm, race to a DDC-LBL line by midnight, and exit the southeast CWA no later than 4 am Saturday. Most of the forcing for ascent will be post frontal, with the highly anticipated rainfall and embedded thunder occurring after the abrupt northerly wind shift. Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are expected to be common, but since it will only be raining 3-5 hours at any one location, amounts of up to 1 inch may be difficult to achieve. Regardless, any rainfall on our dusty parched topsoils will be welcomed with open arms. Marginally severe wind/hail (58 mph, quarters) are possible within tonight's expected line of convection, per SPC Day 1 probabilities, but modest CAPE should keep this threat muted. Outside of storms, north winds will be strong after midnight, gusting 30-40 mph. Rainfall will be wrapping up quickly from NW to SE Saturday morning, with low clouds and strong north winds. Cooler high pressure surface ridging builds in Saturday, weakening as it enters Kansas, providing a noticeably cooler day. Model guidance shows a net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb versus Friday, with afternoon temperatures reduced to the 60s. Even with partial sunshine and diminishing northeast winds, afternoon temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal for early May. The process of warm/moist advection is expected to begin Saturday night and early Sunday, with light easterly winds and increasing clouds. Models have unanimously pulled back on rain production during this time, and reduced pops for Saturday night/early Sunday significantly. Temperatures will commonly be in the 40s sunrise Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Powerful, cold midlevel cyclone near 544 dm in strength is forecast to be over Nevada midday Sunday, western Wyoming at 7 am Monday, and eject into the western Dakotas, well north of SW KS, through 7 pm Monday. Related leeside cyclogenesis/lee troughing along the I-25 corridor will accelerate southeast winds Sunday afternoon, with the strongest winds across western zones. This synoptic evolution will begin the process of dragging higher quality moisture into SW KS from the Gulf of Mexico, with dewpoints expected to reach into the lower 60s by Sunday evening. Convection potential Sunday and Sunday night looks very low, with a strong EML capping inversion and relatively cool boundary layer temperatures in the 60s and 70s keeping things rather stable despite the increasing moisture. Feel slight chance pops from the NBM this period are too high, and most locations will remain dry. Increased south/southeast winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. An intense low level jet will keep south winds strong and gusty, and temperatures elevated, Sunday night through Monday morning. Temperatures through sunrise Monday will easily hold in the 50s all zones, as dewpoints and surface moisture continue to improve. Intense trough will eject onto the plains, with an increasingly negative tilt, into NW Nebraska, through 7 pm Monday. This northern track will essentially dryslot much of SW KS, with strong SWly winds, and blowing dust and wildfire risk behind the dryline. This scenario is most preferred by 12z GFS/GEFS solutions, but as is typical, they are probably at least somewhat too progressive. 12z ECMWF/EPS members are slower with ejection, and as such are slower with the dryline's advancement into central Kansas Monday afternoon. Dryline placement will be critical for sensible weather impacts in SW KS Monday, with intense wind/dust/fire concerns west of it, and potentially high end severe potential east of it. Latest 12z ECMWF solution strongly suggests the dryline and convective initiation zone will be somewhere in the eastern DDC CWA at peak heating 4-5 pm Monday. In other words, confidence is good the severe threat will be focused east of Dodge City/US 283, but any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of hail 2-4 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes. The combination of quality moisture and jet dynamics in a strongly sheared environment suggest high end supercells are probable; the question is where do they form, and how much time they will spend in the DDC CWA. West of the dryline, southwest winds will easily gust 40-50 mph Monday afternoon, with areas of blowing dust. Wildfire danger headlines are expected along and west of US 83. Again increased winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. Included blowing dust in the grids for the western zones, and mentioned severe wording in the eastern 1/4 of the CWA Monday afternoon. No cold air advection is expected behind this system, with westerly downslope components ensuring lower to mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. From Tuesday onward, the forecast will be dry and unusually convectively quiet for May, as the moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico will be cutoff from SW KS through at least next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms at the onset of this TAF period will continue through the first several hours before moving off to the southeast. In the wake of precipitation, stratus clouds will prevail through the morning with ceiling expected to be in the MVFR category above 1000 feet. By mid-morning, stratus ceiling will scatter out as high pressure builds south. Widespread VFR flight category will then prevail from late morning/midday through the remainder of the TAF period with north winds gradually decreasing to around 10 knots by mid to late afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Umscheid