####018008111#### FXUS63 KGID 040513 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1213 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms currently ongoing over western NE will push its way east through the area this evening/tonight. There will be the potential for some storms to be strong/severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary concern. The main time from of severe weather looks to be 8PM-2AM. - After an overall dry weekend, another potent system will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to the area Monday-Monday night. During the mid-late afternoon and evening hours, there will be the potential for severe storms...large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. - Spotty, low chances (20 percent) for precipitation continue in the forecast for Tuesday and on, but confidence in any of those chances is low at this point. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently through tonight... Outside of some scattered showers/weak storms which pushed through northern portions of the forecast area this morning, its been a dry day. Aloft, upper air and satellite data show west-southwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains, sitting east of shortwave trough which is making its way through the Northern/Central Rockies. It was a cloudier start to the day, but sky cover has gradually diminished with time, with skies currently mostly sunny to partly cloudy. At the surface, thanks to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of deepening low pressure over eastern CO and northward extending cold front, southeasterly winds have been gusty this afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 MPH common. Forecast highs looking to work out fairly well, with 3PM obs showing low-mid 70s in place for most locations. Looking out to our west, as that upper level disturbance has been pushing east, storms have fired along that accompanying surface boundary. While not expecting much going on here over the next few hours, as we get into the evening/overnight hours, the evolution of that activity becomes more of a concern. Activity is expected to expand in coverage along that front...and slowed down the onset of PoPs just a touch from previous forecast, moving into far western portions at 00Z. As far as timing goes through the overnight hours, there is pretty good agreement among models showing the main line being at least halfway through the forecast area by midnight, over far east- southeastern areas by around 09Z, and exiting the forecast area by 12Z Saturday. A LLJ increasing to around 40kts will help sustain activity, and while those gusty SSE winds are trying to bring more lower level moisture into the area, all but far southern portions of the area still have dewpoints in the 30s/40s. Models show the potential for modest instability/MUCAPE of around 1000-1500 j/kg, mainly focused over the southern half of the forecast area...with at least 40kts of deeper layer shear to work with. Portions of the forecast area along/south of I-80 are included in the SPC Day 1 outlook...where damaging wind gusts/large hail are the primary hazards. The main severe threat looks to be in that 8PM-2AM time frame. Gusty northwest winds will build into the area behind this front, with the potential for gusts around 30 MPH continuing through the early morning hours. This weekend... At this point, thinking is that for most areas, the weekend will be dry. Models showing some upper level shortwave ridging sliding through the region, set up between tonight's system departing to the east and the next sizable low pressure system moving onto the central/northern West Coast Saturday evening/night. The main question with precipitation chances comes on Sunday across southern portions of the forecast area...all depending on the track of a shortwave disturbance mainly affecting the Southern Plains. Most models keep any QPF associated with system south of our area, a few try to creep enough moisture north to potentially affect our KS counties...but chances remain low (20 percent). The gusty winds associated with tonight's frontal passage remain to start off the day on Saturday, but as surface high pressure builds in, winds taper off and turn more eastern (mainly during the afternoon hours. Expecting mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid 60s. Saturday night into Sunday, that surface high slides off to the east, while low pressure starts to deepen over the Rockies/High Plains...bringing a switch in winds to the southeast, with western areas having the best chances for gustier conditions. More clouds start working their way back in, and afternoon highs are mid-upper 60s. Monday... Monday has the potential to be an interesting day across the forecast area, bringing the next best chance for strong/severe storms, but there are some uncertainties with the finer details. The upper level system moving onto the West Coast Saturday night continues to push east through the second half of the weekend, ending up roughly over the Central Rockies/Four Corner region by 12Z (models vary with whether the nature of the system is a organized low or more open). Through the day energy from this system swings northeast through the heart of the Central Plains, with some uncertainty with the exact speed...but its looking more typical for this time of year with things picking up mid-late afternoon. One of the bigger questions lies with the progress of the surface dry line...is it barely into western portions of the CWA when storms fire or is it closer to/east of Highway 281. Ahead of the dry line/deepening surface low, southerly winds increase (sustained speeds of 25-30 MPH expected, gusts over 40 MPH), helping draw up better lower level moisture...with models showing the potential for instability values near/over 2000 j/kg in spots (some question with just how high dewpoints can get this far north). Models continue to show no shortage of deeper layer shear, with values of at least 40kts...lower level shear isn't bad either. All modes of severe weather are a concern, especially with any supercells that can remain more discrete longer (activity should eventually turn more linear in nature). The further west things get rolling, the more of the forecast area that could be impacted. Still some details to iron out, but it's a period to keep an eye on. Tuesday and on... For Tuesday through Friday, overall the forecast is dry, but there are a few spotty low chances (20 percent) for precipitation. Models show in the wake of this trough swinging through on Monday, low pressure expands over over the Northern Rockies/Dakotas region Tue/Wed...with lower confidence in just how things evolve for Thu/Fri. Can't rule out periodic shortwave swinging through the area. The system on Monday and the accompanying surface front are not ushering in a notably cooler airmass, highs Tue-Fri remain in the 60s/70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The EAR AWOS is currently OTS due to recent storms. The EAR TAF is AMD NOT SKED until the weather clears to VFR or the AWOS comes back online.. Ceilings around the area are dropping to MVFR to IFR so dropped both TAF sites to MVFR as a start. Ceilings should rise after sunrise and scatter out once the cold front moves farther away from TAF sites. Winds will be northerly overnight and a few isolated gusts into the 40-45kts could be possible. Once storms move out of the area the winds are expected to gradually taper down and look to become light this evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Beda ####018004864#### FXUS63 KEAX 040514 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1214 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for overnight into early tomorrow morning. Isolated strong storms may be possible. - There is a potential for strong to severe storms on Monday. All hazards are possible. - Additional rounds of rain may cause river flooding to continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There is currently a progressive longwave pattern over CONUS with strong ridging in the east and troughing in the northern Great Plains region. The upper level jet is rounding the base of the trough from Nebraska curving into Minnesota. There is currently a west-southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, there is high pressure just to the north of the area resulting in easterly winds. SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows increased 850MB flow into southern Nebraska. Added effects of diurnal heating results in wind gusts as high as 15-20 mph through the afternoon. Tonight, a smaller, quickly-moving shortwave trough will merge with the trough to the north of our area. The warm front associated with the smaller shortwave is expected to impact the area later tonight. This will result in low temperatures being ~10 degrees warmer than last night as warm air advects with southerly winds. As the surface cold front approaches the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible out ahead and along the frontal boundary. With MUCAPE values ranging from 1,000-1,500 J/kg and bulk shear around 30-35 knots, there may be a chance for a few strong thunderstorms with strong winds and hail. At this time, the main threat is expected to be further west. However, with the consistent rainfall we have been having, pooling and ponding along roadways may be possible. SPC has recognized this by putting our area in a marginal chance for severe weather for this time period. Frontal passage is expected tomorrow afternoon. With cooler, drier air pushing in behind the front, expect high temperatures to be a little cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Sunday, decent mid level ridging builds in behind the trough resulting in high pressure at the surface across northern Missouri. Meanwhile, a surface cyclone tracks across the Ozarks Sunday resulting in a chance for some showers for areas south of I-70. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s while low temperatures are forecasted to stay in the 50s. On Monday, the mid level ridging shifts slowly to the east as another trough enters central CONUS and becomes more negatively- tilted. By late Monday evening, winds will shift to the south as our region enters the warm sector of the associated surface warm front. As a result of this, return-flow from the Gulf will help to slowly destabilize the environment. The surface front is expected to pass through overnight into Tuesday. With the passage of this front showers and thunderstorms are expected. CAPE values around this time range from 2,000 J/kg to 3,000 J/kg which suggest plenty of instability for convective activity. With bulk shear values exceeding 40 knots, there will ample shear to aid in storm organization as well as create a favorable environment for large hail and damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into early Tuesday morning as the system moves east. Tuesday, the pattern continues its unsettled trend as multiple shortwaves pass through by the end of the week. The trough continues its track northerly and then begins to linger in southern Minnesota. As multiple shortwaves eject from the stagnant trough, chances for showers remain through next week. By next weekend the trough finally begins to shift south and becomes positively-tilted as it moves to the southeast of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Currently VFR with around 10 knot winds out of the southeast at all terminals. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals by around 10 to 11z this morning, with these exiting by around 14z. A few isolated showers may linger through late morning. MVFR CIGs arrive with the showers, with these continuing through around 22z this afternoon, after which VFR CIGs should return. Winds shift to northwesterly and eventually northerly behind a cold front this morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...BMW ####018007916#### FXUS64 KAMA 040514 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1214 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Morning clouds have begun to clear out, with partly cloudy skies being observed for the northern and western Panhandles, while the southeastern TX Panhandle remains cloudy. Starting to see on satellite a cumulus field trying to grow vertically in eastern New Mexico near Tucumcari, and to a lesser extent the Texas Panhandle, suggesting some instability that is still inhibited by a cap. With much of the afternoon left, it's becoming more plausible that the cap could be breached in eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles and at least a few thunderstorms will be able to develop later as the dryline mixes east. If so, MLCAPE values between 1000- 2000 J/kg are possible in the western Panhandles along with 30-40 kts effective shear, suggesting any thunderstorm will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can't be ruled out in the western Panhandles later in the afternoon through the early evening, but seems unlikely at this time. It's possible that any thunderstorm that can develop would begin to weaken as it moves into a more stable airmass in the central Texas Panhandle this evening. There is a signal that additional thunderstorms will be able to develop in the Oklahoma Panhandle this evening but the signal is rather weak among the CAMs. Tonight, a squall line is expected to develop in western Kansas along a cold front. Current expectation is that it will produce an outflow boundary that advances ahead and chokes off the access to unstable air and weakens before it reaches the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, this cold front will make its way through the Panhandles tonight, and it's possible that a moderately strong and moist southerly LLJ will ascend above the cold front and help develop showers and thunderstorms. If so, there may be enough elevated instability for the threat of overnight large hail. With that said, the CAMs are not at all excited about the potential for rain tonight while the global models are. NBM seems to be siding with the global models by giving 50-80% PoPs. Feel as though this is too aggressive right now given CAM agreement and underwhelming upper-level support, thus have decreased PoPs to generally 20-50% tonight. Tomorrow, the Panhandles will be behind the cold front and the surface winds turn from easterly to southeasterly. Clouds should once again be prevalent across the area but perhaps may break up some in the afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach western Texas in the afternoon, but it appears the better forcing for ascent and moisture will be located to the south of the Panhandles. There is a chance that some rain and embedded thunder will make its way up into the southern Texas Panhandle as a result of some more significant thunderstorm activity outside of the CWA, but for now, it doesn't look to be a widespread rain event or much of a beneficial rain event. Once again, NBM is quite aggressive with the PoPs tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Have opted to decrease the rain chances in general, especially in the northern Panhandles tomorrow evening. Still feel PoPs are still too high tomorrow night but will leave it for now. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Lingering slight chance to chance pops Sunday morning will quickly diminish from west to east by afternoon as the upper level shortwave trof moves east of the region. Attention then turns to a much stronger upper level low pressure storm system slated to move across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by the latest short and medium range models indicates more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for most of the OK and TX Panhandles. The far eastern zones may retain just enough moisture for a long enough time frame ahead of the eastward moving dryline Monday morning into the afternoon hours to warrant a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. NBM pop values for that area look reasonable and were included in the grids. Winds may approach or exceed advisory criteria across parts of the western and central sections on Monday due to the rather steep pressure gradient. Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by passage of another cold front Wednesday night which will lead to cooler temperatures on Thursday. Medium range models and associated ensembles are in reasonable agreement and were accepted. 02 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front is passing through the panhandles this morning impacting all terminals. This front will bring gusty north winds to all terminals that will last to the afternoon hours today. These winds will be strongest with frontal passage and slowly become weaker through the morning hours. In OK panhandle the front will cause thunderstorms which can impact KGUY. This thunder activity is currently not expected to arrive at KDHT and KAMA as the chance for this are very low. The front will bring low clouds to all the terminals which will cause MVFR to IFR conditions with generally lower clouds in the OK panhandle compared to TX panhandle. This afternoon moisture will surge back into the panhandles from the S which can cause further showers and thunderstorms mainly in the S TX panhandles. This activity looks to be confined to the afternoon to early evening hours but there is a small chance that it could persist longer. KAMA and KDHT would be the more likely stations to be impacted by this thunder. Winds during the afternoon hours will likely weaken and shift to a more easterly flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Depending on how much rain falls through the weekend and where such rainfall occurs will dictate any fire weather concerns early next week. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance and rainfall forecasts, elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop across much of the western and central sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday due to strong winds and low relative humidity values along with the possibility of dry fuels and little greenup in locations that have not had much rain during the past several weeks. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 72 50 68 51 / 30 30 30 60 Beaver OK 77 48 70 49 / 10 50 20 40 Boise City OK 72 42 65 44 / 30 40 10 20 Borger TX 75 51 72 52 / 20 20 30 50 Boys Ranch TX 76 49 71 50 / 30 20 20 50 Canyon TX 72 49 69 51 / 30 30 30 60 Clarendon TX 71 53 68 53 / 40 30 40 60 Dalhart TX 73 44 68 45 / 30 20 10 40 Guymon OK 74 45 68 47 / 20 40 10 30 Hereford TX 78 50 69 51 / 30 20 30 60 Lipscomb TX 75 51 69 51 / 10 40 30 60 Pampa TX 72 51 68 51 / 20 20 30 60 Shamrock TX 74 54 69 53 / 10 40 40 60 Wellington TX 75 55 71 54 / 20 40 50 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...98