####018004149#### FXUS63 KDVN 040525 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week. - The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Saturday for portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This Evening and Tonight: High pressure will remain in control leading to light winds and mainly clear skies with lows in the 40s to low/mid 50s far southwest. Saturday: A cold front is forecast to track across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois during the morning and afternoon. A stronger line of showers and storms moving through western into central Iowa tonight (Friday night) is expected to gradually weaken into Saturday morning as it pushes into a more stable air mass across our western outlook area (with surface dewpoints only in the 40s early in the day). However, some rain is likely as this first wave moves through and have 50-70% chances west of the Mississippi River for the morning hours. Low-level theta-e advection coupled with diurnal heating will allow for the build up of SBCAPE into Saturday afternoon for locations along and east of the Mississippi River. This will coincide with the passage of the cold front and could result in redevelopment of scattered showers and storms between 2 PM to 7 PM, right now favored for eastern counties. Per HREF surface- based CAPE near 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 30 kts, the environment may be supportive of a few strong to severe storms which is in line with SPC's Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). The primary threats are hail and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Another chilly night is expected Saturday night, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, but Sunday, much like today, appears to be seasonally pleasant in the lower 70s. Global models are in good agreement that a large upper trof will build into the Midwest in the Monday through Wednesday time frame. This should sweep another dynamically supported warm advection band of showers and storms through our area centered on Monday night into Tuesday. The quick flow aloft, and progressive boundary should keep QPF totals from being problematic, with most spots well under 1 inch in the NBM/WPC mean. There is potential for storms to redevelop Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is low on this scenario. SPC has outlooked the area for a slight severe risk, but again confidence regarding the details is low as it will depend on timing and placement of a cold front moving through the Midwest. Stay tuned. Seasonally pleasant temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with a bit of a cool down by late week, as the upper trof deepens over the Midwest. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A locally quiet and clear night of VFR weather will see an approaching area of showers and thunderstorms moving east through western Iowa tonight. These will be in a dissipating stage as they enter eastern Iowa this morning, which is now included as a temporary condition at CID and DBQ. Increasing south winds will bring moisture into the area, but looking upstream, MVFR cigs are not found outside of rainfall, as dewpoints remain low until the convergence of the front arrive. Thus, I've cut back on the MVFR cigs through the day, and focused more on the two periods of rain/thunder potential, one in the morning west, and the other in the mid to late afternoon along and east of the Mississippi River. Some of the afternoon storms could offer a strong wind gust, and brief IFR conditions. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin ####018004565#### FXUS64 KLUB 040526 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s. Thus, there is a strong differential heating boundary present across the area today and will be a potential location for additional storm development. As of 2 PM CDT, the sharpening dryline is present along a line from Seminole to Sundown to Muleshoe and bending westward into New Mexico as lee cyclogenesis strengthens in east southeast Colorado. Dewpoints east of the dryline range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Satellite imagery shows low level moisture advecting northward with the southeast surface winds. Thunderstorms (a few severe) have already begun to develop east of Big Spring and just south of I-20. In addition, towering cumulus clouds are beginning to develop along the dryline across the South Plains. Significant instability is present east of dryline this afternoon with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000+ J/kg and modest effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots, which is capable of support strong to severe supercells. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support very large hail up to baseball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. A tornado or two is possible, with the best environment across the Rolling Plains where the differential heating boundary is present with abundant low level moisture and east southeast low level mean flow. A few storm splits may be possible with the right movers headed southeast, potentially along the aforementioned pre-existing boundary. These right moving storms would pose the greatest threat for a tornado, especially this evening as low level shear increases. Most storms will be moving east northeast this afternoon and evening with slower storm motions around 10 to 20 mph, which could pose a localized flash flooding threat. Thunderstorms should move east out of the forecast area late this evening before Midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The severe weather threat will continue into Saturday. Winds behind a cold front will switch to generally out of the east will bring sufficient Gulf moisture to the area. Instability may take some time to develop given stubborn morning cloud cover, however it is expected to reach similar magnitudes as today, favoring the southern South and Rolling Plains. While forcing is not overly impressive, an upper shortwave should be more than enough to trigger potentially severe storms during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain/flooding. While tornadoes are unlikely, they cannot be completely be ruled out. Much of the precipitation should move out of the forecast area by midnight. The active weather seen over the past several days will finally begin to quiet down on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds over the region. A fast moving upper trough on Monday brings a brief return of shower and thunderstorm chances. GFS/NAM timing (moving precipitation out of the area by late-morning) is generally favored at this time given the relatively stronger steering flow. As such, any severe weather threat would be limited. A mostly zonal flow pattern aloft and westerly surface winds look to allow for warm and dry conditions to prevail through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 FROPA remains on track from 11-13Z ahead of persistent MVFR ceilings and gusty N winds. TS potential is looking quite low for most of the day until after 5 PM or so and mainly at LBB where the northern fringes of TS could impact the terminal. Confidence in this scenario is too low for a mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93 ####018006156#### FXUS62 KFFC 040526 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 126 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 At a glance: - Multiple waves of precipitation through the weekend - Brief reprieve from unseasonably warm temperatures Saturday north of I-20 At the surface, conditions are relatively benign, with the western fringes of surface high pressure still in place across the Southeast. The primary catalyst for our rather dreary weekend ahead will be a series of shortwaves traversing mid-level flow aloft, the strongest of which looks to move through Saturday afternoon. Development through this afternoon is likely to be patchy and summer-like, with slight chance to low-end chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday, with the arrival of better (but meager) forcing and a slug of mid-level moisture, rain chances are likely to be more widespread and weakly organized, with fewer breaks in between individual waves. For both days, MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, but unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances for severe weather. That said, PWATs creeping north of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for early May per the SPC's sounding climatology. Any storms that form are likely to be slow-moving to stationary, and will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance flooding. Highs today will continue the trend of being several degrees above average, in the upper 70s to 80s, with 90 in reach across south central Georgia. Tomorrow will be cooler north of I-20 -- highs in the 60s are not out of the question for portions of north Georgia, though generally in the 70s to near 80 -- thanks to greater coverage of clouds and thunderstorms. South of I-20, expect another day with temperatures reaching into the low-to-mid 80s. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 As the extended period picks up on Sunday morning, a shortwave disturbance will be positioned over the ArkLaTex. This disturbance will move northeastward over the course of the day on Sunday and into Monday, which will force continued scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. The coverage of thunderstorms will moreover be diurnally enhanced in the afternoon hours each day. The combination of forcing ahead of the shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water values ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for likely PoPs across the majority of north and central Georgia each afternoon, with some activity lingering into the evening each day. Low-level wind shear and dynamic support appears that it will be located nearest to the axis of the shortwave, which will pass north of the forecast area. As such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will advance slowly southward from the lower Midwest into the Tennessee River Valley. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow is anticipated to overrun the front, which will help organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia. With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast and increased deep- layer bulk shear ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather on Thursday will need to be monitored as the forecast evolves. King && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atmos remains fairly moist and isold shra will be possible through much of the overnight hours. Some patchy light rain is possible towards 12Z. MVFR cigs also possible towards 12Z, with some potential for IFR cigs for a few hours. May have to add a tempo during later amds. Scat convection possible again this afternoon and left the timing very similar to the previous TAF. Winds will should be either light/vrb or light SE overnight then switch to the SW during the day. IFR possible overnight Sat/early Sun. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 62 83 63 81 / 40 40 40 70 Atlanta 64 83 65 83 / 30 40 40 70 Blairsville 59 78 60 76 / 40 40 50 80 Cartersville 62 83 63 83 / 30 40 40 70 Columbus 65 88 67 88 / 20 40 30 40 Gainesville 64 81 64 80 / 30 40 40 80 Macon 64 85 65 85 / 40 40 30 60 Rome 62 85 64 84 / 30 40 50 70 Peachtree City 62 84 64 84 / 30 40 40 60 Vidalia 66 87 67 87 / 40 40 20 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...NListemaa ####018007960#### FXUS61 KBUF 040527 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 127 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will bring some showers to parts of the region this evening into tonight. Shower chances steadily decrease later tonight into Saturday with just scattered showers, and also dry time built in between the showers. Another slow moving cold front will pass across the area Saturday night through Sunday bringing the next round of more widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weakening trough will continue to drift east across the area overnight. Showers are light and very spotty, but a few sprinkles and light showers will continue overnight. With very little forcing in place for Saturday, expecting just scattered showers, especially during the morning hours with a good deal of dry time built in through the day. Next stronger cold front will approach from the west late Saturday, while next wave moves north from the Ohio Valley. This will help to displace the upper level ridge east over New England, thus opening the door for the next surge of moisture and lift to move over the area with chances for showers increasing from south to north late in the day into the evening. Highs will be mainly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The mid-level ridge axis over the forecast area through Saturday afternoon will push east toward New England Saturday night. In its wake, a shortwave trough will track northeast out of the OH/TN Valleys toward WNY. As the trough approaches, shower coverage will increase significantly from south to north through the later portion of Saturday evening and overnight. An influx of moisture with the trough will also help showers expand over the region. There still remains some uncertainty with track of shortwave trough and moisture over the forecast area with some models placing the higher rainfall amounts over WNY and other guidance more to the east toward CNY. An incoming cold front on Sunday morning will increase forcing over the area, prolonging and expanding the potential for showers through at least the afternoon hours. Still uncertainty with how quickly the cold front tracks through the region among guidance as well with some guidance prolonging the showers through most of the day and into the evening on Sunday. Overall though the later portion of Saturday evening through at least the early afternoon on Sunday looks to be soggy for most of the forecast area. The more organized showers on Sunday should be mainly across the eastern third of the area by the late afternoon, with some lingering/scattered showers across the rest of the area. With the large scale trough just north of the region still, along with lingering synoptic moisture, scattered showers will linger through most of Sunday night. Drier air moving into the area along a zonal flow will start to scatter out any remaining showers from west to east through the late night. Rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch to half an inch is expected, with some higher amounts possible as well. Current thinking is the higher qpf amounts will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario east to the north country. Still plenty of uncertainty with higher qpf placement among guidance still. A ridge building into the region will result in drier weather for Monday through Monday night across the entire area. Clearing skies on Monday will result in increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast through the day. Clouds will linger the longest near the NY/PA line as a disturbance tracks south of the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 60s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. For Monday, temperatures warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A sprawling mid and upper level low will start out this period over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains states on Tuesday...then will slowly drift eastward across the northern half of the CONUS through the remainder of the work week. This being said...the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable differences in the strength and rate of eastward progression of this low...and consequently also in the strength/timing of a number of shortwave impulses ejecting eastward from this system and across our region. With the above in mind...forecast confidence in associated precipitation potential/timing remains fairly low particularly from about Wednesday onward...and as such have undercut blended guidance a bit in an attempt to better reflect this uncertainty. In general this system should bring more unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the middle and latter portions of next week...though likely also with some drier periods interspersed. As for temperatures...these will continue to average some 5-10 degrees above normal through this period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak trough will continue to cross the region through early this morning with a few spotty, light showers. VFR will prevail for the bulk of the area, although some low MVFR/IFR stratus may develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier for several hours around daybreak. Some of this may impact KJHW. There will continue to be a few spotty showers today, but much of the time will be rain free as the trough washes out overhead. VFR will prevail with a wealth of mid level clouds. Another wave of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley this evening across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will bring a period of fairly widespread rain spreading from southwest to northeast across the area from late evening through the overnight. CIGS will deteriorate to widespread MVFR/IFR shortly after the rain begins, and any pockets of moderate rain will bring short term VSBY restrictions. A 40+ knot low level jet will also produce some low level wind shear overnight. Outlook... Sunday...Widespread MVFR/IFR in the morning in rain. Improving to mainly VFR from west to east in the afternoon and evening as the rain tapers off. Chance of a few widely scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening across Western NY. Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected to persist into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria, especially with an offshore flow developing tonight then persisting through the weekend, keeping the highest waves over Canadian waters for Saturday and Sunday. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Sunday. High pressure will build across the area for the start of the new work week providing mainly gentle breezes with no more than some light chop expected through Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/JM NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock/JM SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...AR/JM ####018005906#### FXUS61 KALY 040527 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 127 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...Made some minor adjustments based on current obs. Only chance for a few light showers through the rest of the night will be across the far NW Adirondacks, otherwise dry conditions will persist. Some patchy low stratus clouds may develop in some spots mainly east of the Hudson River, but should be rather sparse in coverage. Mid level clouds will gradually spread eastward from central NY through the night, so did increase cloud cover in the forecast especially west of the Hudson Valley. .PREV DISCUSSION[1006]...An upper level ridge axis will be directly overhead tonight. High pressure off the New England coast will bring largely dry weather across the region with just some patchy mid and high clouds. Forecast soundings and the 00z KALY sounding shows rather dry air in the low-levels, so low cloud development later tonight looks fairly isolated. While most of the precipitation will remain to our west tonight, a few sprinkles may reach portions of Herkimer County after midnight. Temperatures have fallen into the 50s to lower 60s in most areas and remain on track to dip into the 40s to around 50 by daybreak. Light winds and just thin high clouds will allow for some radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The axis of deeper moisture associated with the upper energy and associated warm and cold front will slowly approach through the day Saturday. Sources of guidance/ensembles suggest the leading edge of the deeper cloud cover and any rain is timed for very late Saturday afternoon and night. This suggests more periods of high clouds through the day with steady light south to southeast winds and highs in the 60s to around 70. Showers move into our region from southwest to northeast through the night Saturday night and by daybreak Sunday many areas will see showers. Depending on the timing, the onset of showers in the Capital Region and points north and east may be after daybreak Sunday. Then, clouds and showers across the entire region Sunday, limiting warming. There could be a rumble of thunder but chances are low with a lack of instability. Highs mainly in the 50s Sunday. Rain moves out Sunday night and there cold be a lingering early morning shower Monday. Then, weak cold advection begins with the exit of the upper system and cold front Monday. Highs Monday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Increasing clouds through the day, with around 70 higher terrain and near 80 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. By Wednesday through the rest of next week, split upper flow with northern stream upper energy slowly dropping out of Canada and a closed upper low slowly approaching from the northern and central plains. Confluent upper flow and associated moisture advection and low level jet forcing will result in showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night through Friday. There will be some periods of dry weather but there is a lot of spread in sources of guidance as to the timing of embedded smaller upper impulses and associated focused moisture, low level forcing and areas of showers. Still, the general upper pattern should support unsettled weather. So, again, indicating chances for showers Tuesday night through Friday. The threat for severe weather and/or heavy rain looks limited due to the relatively weak upper dynamics and weak low level forcing. Highs Wednesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs Thursday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Friday in the 60s with near 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and some 50s southern Adirondacks. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening, with some MVFR Cigs possibly developing after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level clouds will increase late tonight through Saturday. Lower clouds are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL, possibly dropping to 2000-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun. Light/variable winds are expected through daybreak, though may remain south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB. Southeast to south winds will increase to 5-10 KT at all TAF sites by mid morning Saturday and continue into Saturday evening. A few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV/Rathbun SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...KL ####018004144#### FXUS63 KTOP 040528 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1228 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -A line of thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across the area tonight into early Saturday morning. There is a low chance for a few damaging wind gusts. -A better chance for severe weather arrives Monday afternoon as a stronger system impacts the central US. All modes of severe weather will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This afternoon, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Wyoming with southwest flow over KS. Surface obs show high pressure centered in eastern Iowa. South-southeast winds are beginning to transport higher dew points back into the area, which will continue as high pressure slides further northeast and low level flow increases this evening. The shortwave over WY will move eastward across the Dakotas this evening and tonight, bringing a cold front across KS. A linear complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop in western Nebraska/Kansas near the boundary this evening, marching eastward into tonight. Instability will initially increase in eastern KS with the theta-e advection this evening, but CIN is also expected to increase as the night progresses and the storms approach. HREF MUCAPE values range from about 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the front, with storms likely along or just behind the instability gradient. Shear still looks to range from about 30-35 kts, helping to maintain storm structure aloft. Given these parameters, strong winds and small hail will be the main concerns with storms as they move through tonight. Lingering post-frontal showers, and gusty northwest winds will be possible through Saturday morning before high pressure brings in a cooler and drier air mass. High temperatures Saturday afternoon look to run about ten degrees cooler than today. Another shortwave trough could then bring precipitation back to the forecast area, but this time from the south. That trough will move across TX and the Red River Valley, then into the Ozarks on Sunday. Instability and moisture will be more limited, so severe weather is not expected. Have also decreased POPs slightly with some deterministic models now keeping most of the area dry. Still think there is at least a slight chance for light QPF mainly south of I-70. A much stronger and more impactful system is still on track for the Monday afternoon/evening timeframe. A deep H5 trough looks to move across the Rockies and take on a negative tilt as it progresses over the High Plains Monday afternoon. Strong southerly flow will quickly transport moisture into the region ahead of a deepening surface low. Instability will build in the warm sector across central and eastern KS in response, with models showing anywhere between 2000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE. With effective bulk shear possibly exceeding 40 kts and 0-3 km SRH above 200 m2/s2, another round of severe weather is anticipated. All modes will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. Severe weather is not currently expected for the rest of next week, but a series of shortwave troughs embedded the the flow aloft could at least keep some POPs around through midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will move through KMHK around 0830z and KTOP/KFOE around KFOE, give or take an hour. Precipitation only looks to last for a couple hours at any one spot. Winds veer to the northwest behind this line as the cold front moves through, with ceilings falling to MVFR and possibly IFR at times. These lower ceilings gradually clear through the afternoon, with 10-13 kt northwest winds weakening after sunset. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Reese ####018004657#### FXUS64 KOHX 040528 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1228 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to slowly move from SW to NE at this hour. The majority of the activity is south of I-40. Lightning activity is coming down as we've lost the daytime heating to really fuel the storms. The latest RAP guidance shows the best surface-based instability remains over our SW counties, but that value of 1500 J/Kg is much lower than earlier and is dropping as is evident on radar; the storms over that area are quickly dying out. With that, do expect widespread thunderstorm activity to greatly dwindle down overnight. We are monitoring the potential for flooding as some of these storms have dumped very heavy rain over a short period of time. If you're out driving tonight in any of the areas that have received rain today, be careful and watchful for ponding along roadways. The latest CAMs show on and off showers continuing through the overnight period tonight with a few rumbles of thunder here and there. Saturday looks more of the same as today, but perhaps less widespread. We don't have much forcing to really help storms get going tomorrow, but there will be plenty of instability. I'd call tomorrow's storms garden variety - pop-up, drop some heavy rain and produce some lightning, maybe even a gust to 30 or 40mph or so, then be done. It will also be hit-or-miss on who will see these storms vs who doesn't. Just in case, be ready to move any outdoor plans temporarily indoors tomorrow. Outside of thunderstorm chances, Saturday highs will be near 80 for most. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 While some scattered showers and storms will be around throughout the TAF cycle, flight categories should be pretty decent. Biggest exception will be CKV, where LIFR to VLIFR vis drops are becoming more likely 10-13Z. Otherwise, brief MVFR cats with any heavier rains. Winds will be light and southwesterly for this cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 65 86 66 / 70 50 60 70 Clarksville 80 63 83 64 / 50 40 60 70 Crossville 74 60 79 61 / 80 50 60 60 Columbia 80 63 85 64 / 70 50 60 70 Cookeville 76 62 81 64 / 80 50 50 60 Jamestown 76 60 81 61 / 80 50 60 60 Lawrenceburg 79 63 84 64 / 70 50 60 70 Murfreesboro 79 63 86 64 / 70 50 50 60 Waverly 80 63 84 64 / 50 50 60 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Unger