####018006472#### FXUS63 KMQT 040529 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 129 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -The UP remains under the preferred path for low pressure systems, with multiple notable features passing through the next week. -In between systems, dry conditions will be expected, though mostly low winds and preceding rainfall should broadly limit fire concerns. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Calmer weather is being seen this afternoon as the last of the cloud cover has lifted away from the far east. With sunny skies being overhead the rest of this afternoon and with subtle warm air advection continuing, highs today could get into the mid 60s to low 70s before this evening; some spots, including Watson, Marquette, and L'Anse, have gotten to 68F already. Otherwise, gusty WSW'rly winds across the western half continue the rest of this afternoon before dying down this evening as deep mixing takes place across our region. Moving into tonight, cloud cover looks to return to the west half late as another low pressure system from the Central Plains looks to lift towards the U.P.. As it does so, we could see a few sprinkles late tonight from time to time across the west. Therefore, while skies will be mostly clear for tonight, the western half's low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees warmer due to the incoming cloud cover; temperatures are expected to get down to the mid 40s near Lake Superior, the low 40s over the western interior, and upper 30s in the interior east tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday morning, while troughing is based over far northern Ontario, a trailing shortwave trough will be passing through the Dakotas and will support a weak surface low. 12Z GEFS pressure centers suggest a 1005-1010mb surface low passing over central Lake Michigan late Saturday. Ahead of the low, rain chances spread across the western UP during the morning hours. This will keeps high temps cooler (around 60F) compared to the central and especially the east where highs approaching 70F are forecast. The cool front and associated rain chances spread across the central and eastern UP during the afternoon and evening, respectively. While this does line up with peak diurnal heating, 12Z HREF mean MUCAPE only maxes out in the 100-250 J/kg range in the south and east, though simulated reflectivity does show some convective potential, so some slight thunder chances are left in the forecast for the evening hours, though impacts should be low. The convective nature of later showers biases the ensemble max rainfall, but the mean rainfall around a tenth of an inch (0.1 in) across the UP is a more reasonable forecast given meager instability and lack of training. The exception will be in the east, where the HREF shows over 50% probabilities of 6-hourly rain rates over 0.25 inches and 30-40% chances of total rainfall over a half inch. In the wake of the low, 500mb heights begin to rise Sunday, supporting a 1020mb high pressure settling over the UP through late Monday. This will give the UP as a whole its driest stretch of the last few weeks with high confidence of no precip through at least early Tuesday morning. The main forecast concern will be how dry the airmass gets for Sunday and Monday, as efficient mixing and radiative heating under clear skies will allow RHs to fall. Going with the 10th percentile of Td guidance Sunday and Monday results in RHs falling into the 30s, though with the recent precipitation and light winds directly under high pressure, fire weather concerns should be tempered. A bowling ball closed 500mb low will be passing through the Rockies Sunday into Monday, negatively tilting as it does. This will support strong lee cyclogenesis, with the 12Z GEFS showing a mid 970s-upper 980s mb low over the Northern Great Plains. While confidence is increasing that severe weather much further south will result from this low progressing eastward, ensemble spread is high in the track, timing, and strength of this low pressure Tuesday and beyond. Late Tuesday has the highest chances of rain, with the NBM showing 50-80% PoPs during that time, but whether the low quickly ejects out or stalls is still unknown, so lower PoPs remain through the remainder of the forecast. With the cold-core nature of the system, the chances of embedded thunderstorms this far north will rely on some diurnal influences, but the strength of said storms is quite uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions continue into Sat morning as weak ridging continues to affect the area. Starting late tonight, another low pressure over the Central Plains lifts northeastward towards the Upper Midwest and brings more rainfall to the west as soon as Saturday afternoon. This incoming rainfall will bring MVFR and possibly lower conditions to across KIWD, MCMX and KSAW by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Wind flow is split over Lake Superior, with the west half seeing SW winds up to 25 knots and the east half seeing winds less than 20 knots out of the SSE. Gusts lakewide fall below 20 kt tonight. As a weak low pressure passes through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday, the eastern portions of Lake Superior could briefly see some NW wind gusts up to 25 kt Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure settles over the lake Sunday and Monday, winds will be below 20 kt until Monday afternoon, when a strong low pressure over the Northern Great Plains will cause gusty northeasterly winds to funnel towards Duluth Harbor over 20 kt. The track, timing, and intensity of the low becomes uncertain after Monday night, but gales could occur (~20%) if the low tracks directly over Lake Superior with a moderate strength. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...GS AVIATION...07 MARINE...GS ####018009078#### FXUS62 KJAX 040529 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 129 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Scattered to isolated showers and storms are expected to persist through the overnight hours as a shortwave continues its push through the area, with most activity over the west- northwest locations of SE GA. Kept forecast mainly unchanged aside from some minor tweaks to PoPs. Overnight lows will mainly in the mid to upper 60s, warm spots near the coast and northwest SE GA. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Another day with a mix of sun and clouds is underway as the east coast seabreeze progresses further inland. The breeze is getting hung up a bit near the St. Johns River breezes and building some taller cumulus, though just not quite enough layer moisture for any showers or storms to come out of this as of now. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out between about I-75 and I-95 through the next few hours, though the main focus area will be in the vicinity of and west of I-75 and into southwestern GA counties this evening where the sea breeze collides with the Gulf breeze. There is also a surge of higher PWATs further west ahead of a shortwave impulse aloft, which should also aid in the formation of some showers and a few t'storms. Not expecting anything at severe criteria, as instability will not be significant and the flow aloft is generally weak. Most areas have risen into the mid to upper 80s, with maybe just a few degrees more to rise inland before the arrival of the sea breeze. Closer to the coast, likely have already topped out in the low 80s. The aforementioned shortwave pushes closer overnight tonight, which will be enough for some showers and isolated t'storms to persist overnight. Especially in areas inland to the west and north of I-10, away from strongest surface ridging and where there will be greater available moisture. With the lingering convection overnight and more cloud cover in the area, not expecting as much in the way of fog Saturday Morning as compared to this morning. Though some patchy areas cannot be ruled out, especially over northeast FL. Lows will be mild, in the 60s to low 70s by the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday...Rather messy/complex forecast as mid level trough/surface frontal boundary over the SE US and any ongoing leftover convection across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley during the morning hours with abundant clouds will disrupt the usual diurnal sea breeze convective cycle. This will lead to unbalanced afternoon scattered to numerous showers and storms along both leftover boundaries over inland areas and weaker than normal inland moving sea breeze fronts from both the Gulf/Atlantic, which should still lead to decent afternoon/evening convective coverage, mainly over inland areas, but timing and strength of any convection will depend on how much insolation occurs through the daytime hours. Models have trended slightly downward with Max temps in the lower/middle 80s across SE GA and along the Atlantic Coast, while mid/upper 80s still expected over inland NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the most sun is expected through the day and will likely be the location for any of the isolated stronger storms with gusty winds 40-50mph, lightning and heavy downpours, but widespread severe storms are not expected at this time. Saturday Night...Mid level trough aloft is expected to weaken with a more normal downward diurnal trend in convection after sunset, with more quiet conditions expected during the overnight hours under fair skies. Low temps expected in the mid/upper 60s inland, with lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog is possible inland but will depend on amount/coverage of rainfall on Saturday and potential clearing skies during the overnight hours, so have not included in forecast/grids this far in advance. Sunday...Lingering moisture from decaying trough aloft and more normal diurnal sea breeze circulation should lead to scattered afternoon storms, which may be numerous where sea breeze activity meets between the I-75 and US 301 corridors over inland areas, along with continued potential for widely scattered strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph, small hail, lightning and heavy downpours. Max temps expected to reach the widespread upper 80s with isolated near 90 degree readings over inland areas, while the Atlantic Coast tops out in the lower/middle 80s. Sunday Night...Weak ridging aloft begins to build into the region and expect an earlier end to most diurnal convection by sunset with partly/mostly clear skies developing overnight with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Typical patchy fog possible over inland areas, but significant dense fog not expected at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Monday...Weak mid level trough passage through the SE US region and associated lingering moisture should continue the early summer-like sea breeze convective pattern with scattered to numerous showers and storms by the afternoon hours, with best chances across inland SE GA where deepest moisture remains. Max temps generally in the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas, with lower/middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast and the threat for widely scattered strong storms will continue. Tuesday through Friday...Not much change to the ongoing forecast of hot and mainly dry weather still on track as mid level ridging builds into the Gulf of Mexico and surface ridge axis builds south of the local region and this will trap the East Coast sea breeze along the Atlantic beaches and build the daytime highs into the lower to middle 90s with near record highs possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Diurnal convection will be suppressed but isolated storms will still be possible on Tuesday, and again by the late Friday time frame as some long range models are pushing a frontal boundary into the local region by the following weekend. Dew points mixing down into the mid/upper 60s during the afternoon hours will keep the heat indices likely below any Heat Advisory levels, but peak Heat Indices into the 100-105 range will be possible in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conds continue with shallow, localized mist/fog developing through the remaining predawn hours at inland airfields (KGNV & KVQQ). Amid a more unstable airmass, sea breeze interaction and a passing disturbance will lead to scattered thunderstorms mainly along and east of Highway 301 during the late afternoon (after 20z). Convective impacts are most likely at KGNV; however, outflow may impact terminals with vicinity showers/storms. As storms weaken this evening, the remnant showers will drift eastward and possibly pass across coastal terminals in NE FL toward the end of the current TAF period. Outside of outflow influence, predominant winds will be east to east-southeasterly around 7-12 knots then trending lighter after 00z. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Surface high pressure ridging will remain over area waters through the weekend, with a sea breeze expected to push inland each day. The associated high will slowly move further southeastward into early next week, strengthening by mid next week. Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains at low end of moderate level through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for... Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962 Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962 Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962 Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 64 87 65 / 60 30 60 20 SSI 81 69 81 70 / 20 20 40 20 JAX 86 67 86 67 / 30 20 40 10 SGJ 85 68 85 68 / 20 10 40 10 GNV 88 66 89 66 / 50 20 60 10 OCF 90 66 90 66 / 40 10 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018008056#### FXUS63 KDLH 040532 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1232 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern will lead to continued on and off precipitation chances through the next 7-10 days, with most of the precipitation falling tonight into Saturday and then Monday night into Tuesday. - In between rounds of rainfall, dry conditions in combination with strong winds could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions on Monday. - Thunderstorms are possible (20-30 percent chance) late Monday through Tuesday night, with severe weather potential very low - perhaps a 5 percent chance at most for isolated marginally severe storms in northwest Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An active weather pattern continues through the first week of May, which is helping to reduce the number of dry and windy days that could lead to critical fire weather conditions. Today will be mainly sunny to start across the Northland with the exception of parts of Koochiching County where the closed low lifting north is still causing cloudy skies and the occasional light rain shower. Highs today in the 60s (perhaps a stray 70 in northwest Wisconsin) and drying out with relative humidity values as low as 25-30 percent. Windy with southwest winds 15-20 mph with winds gusting as high as 25-30 mph. Clouds return this afternoon from west to east. On the synoptic scale a fairly progressive pattern across North America to start the weekend as a closed low over northern Minnesota lifts northward with the parent longwave mid/upper level trough over the Canadian Prairie into the Dakotas gradually meanders eastward. This eastward progression is accelerated this evening as a fast- moving mid-level shortwave trough digs in across the central Rockies and then ejects northeastward towards Lake Superior tonight into Saturday. This impulse brings with it impressive broad-scale lift across the region tonight with strong warm air advection at low levels across northern Wisconsin and excellent positive vorticity advection over MN/WI, with a surface front emerging/sharpening up nearly in line with the MN/WI border Saturday morning. The best broad-scale lift is offset from the best area of low level moisture, and combined with the fast-moving nature of this impulse there is an atypically large spread in guidance for the precip amounts - generally amounts of around a tenth to quarter inch expected along and south/east of the Iron Range (highest from Brainerd/Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports and up the north shore), with the odds for a half inch or more low (20-30 percent, highest across eastern MN) and values over an inch unlikely (less than 5 percent chance). The exception will be north and west of the Iron Range (which has missed out of the highest precip amounts over the previous week) where little to no precipitation is expected due to weaker broad-scale lift. The weekend won't be a total washout, though - sunshine should start to peak out of the clouds in central Minnesota by the afternoon Saturday, and most locations across the Northland will be the sun break out before sunset Saturday evening. Sunday will be a top-ten weather day with sunny skies, highs in the 60s (50s for parts of the north shore) and weak winds as a broad area of high pressure builds in across the Upper Midwest. Warmer and breezy on Monday with highs hitting the 70 degree mark for much of the Northland (except near Lake Superior where east winds will keep temps in the 50s to low 60s). Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible as relative humidity values fall to 25 to 35 percent and southeast winds gust as strong as 20-30 mph. Another round of precipitation arrives late Monday with precipitation chances every day for the rest of the week. While mid/upper level ridging builds in across the Midwest this weekend, a very large closed upper level low enters the western CONUS, digging into the Four Corners region and causing a resultant surface low to deepen over the Great Plains, with the surface low probably develop in the Central High Plains Monday, lifting north into the northern Great Plains on Tuesday. This surface low will be anomalously deep for this time of the year - a much more winter/early spring evolution than late spring - and then the mature low over the northern Great Plains just... hangs out for a few days. The closed low essentially gets stuck as the "parent" upper level longwave trough slowly moves eastward into the Great Plains through the rest of the work week, with the weakening surface low tracking east from the Dakotas into the Upper Great Lakes. This pattern evolution is complicated, and with the complex nature there is a lot of uncertainty in the details. However, in most scenarios there will be off and on precipitation chances through the week with temperatures near normal (highs in the upper 50s to 60s). Most of the precipitation next week will fall late Monday and through Tuesday, with elevated instability leading to a few embedded thunderstorms. There MAY be scenario in which a few storms are capable of small hail in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon, but severe weather is unlikely. In total Mon night through Wednesday morning around a quarter to half inch of rainfall is expected, but locally higher amounts of an inch are possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A band of light to locally moderate rain persists in the Brainerd Lakes to the Arrowhead for the rest of tonight as a frontal boundary drapes over the Northland. Expect light west to southwesterly winds in north-central Minnesota west of the boundary and light and variable surface winds in northwest Wisconsin through early Saturday morning. As the responsible low pressure centered in Ontario pushes eastward, expect the better rain chances after 10Z and through 20Z for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including MVFR ceilings and visibility. Winds shift westerly and then northwesterly behind the frontal passage by later Saturday daytime. An area of scattered showers is likely (60% chance) to form behind the front along and north of US Hwy 2 in Minnesota from 17Z Sat to 01Z Sun. Steep lapse rates aloft may (10-15% chance) support an isolated thunderstorm somewhere from a BJI-INL-HIB-ELO bounded region in far northern Minnesota in that time period, but chances are much better for localized MVFR vis reductions again in these showers. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Strong southwest winds today gradually weaken this evening, with Small Craft Advisories in effect through the day. Another round of rain tonight into Saturday with weak west winds 5-10 knots Saturday, increasing and becoming more southerly at 10-15 knots on Sunday as high pressure builds in. A change on Monday as northeast winds increase through the day as an area of low pressure deepens across the Dakotas, with steady winds around 15-20 knots developing Monday and persisting through Tuesday/Tuesday night. Gale-force gusts are possible (10 percent chance) on Tuesday afternoon, but widespread gale force winds are not anticipated. With a long period of steady northeast winds, waves will build to 3-6 feet Tuesday, possibly larger for the north shore. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJM AVIATION...NLy MARINE...JJM ####018006338#### FXUS64 KMRX 040532 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 132 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 819 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers will continue to linger this evening. A few storms possible in the Southern Valley and Cumberland Plateau. A lull in activity is likely overnight. Although, some showers will still be possible. Some patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours due to ground moisture but development will be somewhat limited due to cloud cover overnight. I went with Consshort guidance for POPs in the overnight period. NBM seems a bit overdone. CAMs are closer to Consshort with sporadic weak showers overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Message: A few instances of small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours are possible this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. Discussion: Currently showers and thunderstorms are traversing across much of the southeastern United States being aided by a shortwave moving through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. As of this writing there is predominantly just rain showers, but increasing instability means we'll likely see more thunderstorms moving through the southern Appalachians through the rest of the evening. Soundings and CAMs are still showing a few hundred (maybe up to near 1000) J/kg of MLCAPE the rest of this afternoon. Combine this with a fairly week lapse rate and very little shear, and the chances for widespread sever weather continue to look low. With that being said an individual thunderstorm could bring brief heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds in areas that have destabilized this afternoon. With how slow these storms are currently moving and the possibilty of multiple storms over a small area, the biggest threat the rest of the afternoon/evening is likely to be flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas. As we head into the overnight hours we should see a lull in activity, and although the threat of rain does not go away, but the risk of lightning and strong storms really decreases as the shortwave exits the area and the atmosphere becomes more stable overnight. On Saturday we will likely see a similar story as today, with morning showers transitioning into afternoon thunderstorms with heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds as the primary hazards in the strongest storms. Forecast soundings show a similar environment with weak to moderate CAPE and weak shear, so once again widespread severe weather looks unlikely. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: 1. An unsettled pattern is expected through the extended period with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. More organized convection is possible by Wednesday/Thursday of next week. 2. Temperatures will be generally above normal. Discussion: We start the period with a fairly weak upper level flow pattern over the region and a short wave moving through. Most model guidance suggest the short wave will exit by early Sunday, with short wave ridging building in. This may allow for less coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, but it still looks like there will be enough moisture and instability for at least scattered convection. The upper level ridging looks to be short lived as another short wave aloft moves in Sunday night/Monday, along with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Models suggest modest instability with MLCAPES likely around 100J/kg or less for both Sunday and Monday and shear will be on the weak side given the weaker flow. However some stronger storms with gusty downburst winds will be possible as well as locally heavy rainfall rates given the near 90th percentile PWATs (around 1.4 inches both days). The unsettled pattern will continue for the Tuesday through Friday time frame, although timing of individual short waves in the flow is uncertain. Ensembles do suggest a more dynamic pattern developing with the upper jet nosing in from the west/northwest then dipping south, and mean 850 mb flow will likely increase to 30+ kts and may exceed 40 kts at some point during the period. In addition, a cold front is forecast to be moving in from the northwest by the end of the period. There are still model differences and timing questions, but the data does indicate that by Wednesday we will see an environment with potentially better thermodynamics and deep-layer shear sufficient for more organized convection than in the earlier part of the extended period. This will bear watching going forward. The long term period will generally feature temperatures above seasonal normals, although precipitation timing/coverage may help to hold high temperatures down on some wetter days, and the cold front moving in Friday is expected to help hold temperatures Friday down closer to normal although timing that far out is of course still very uncertain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the forecast period which will impact aviation at all sites. CHA will see some impacts early this morning with convection being more isolated during the morning and mid-morning hours. This afternoon, thunderstorm activity will become more widespread with more impacts expected in the vicinity of all terminals. Some areas of low clouds and fog are possible this morning, mainly in the vicinity of TYS and TRI. Winds remain generally light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 64 84 65 / 70 20 50 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 63 82 63 / 60 40 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 78 62 82 63 / 70 40 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 59 79 60 / 90 40 60 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...JB ####018006300#### FXUS61 KBGM 040532 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 132 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 am update... With mid and high clouds across the area now increased cloud cover to mostly cloudy or cloudy today. Tonight and Sunday with rain showers made skies cloudy. Upped temperatures for most and especially in the Finger Lakes early this morning. Temperatures there still in the 60s with clouds and sprinkles. Not much chance of falling into the low 50s there. 930 PM Update... Showers continue to slowly creep eastward. With timing a little slower than expected and drier conditions over the region, PoPs were cut back slightly. Meanwhile, mid to high level clouds have pushed into the region. These will continue to spread eastward, resulting in mostly cloudy skies over the region. As a result, sky cover was increased through the early morning hours tomorrow. This cloud cover may help slow down cooling of temperatures. While no adjustments were made to the lows, temps were held slightly warmer over the next few hours. 645 PM Update... There was not much to change with this update. Sky cover was lowered some, at least until the showers from the west move in. The slow moving showers are expected to move in later this evening, so PoPs were left untouched for now. Temperatures and dew points were touched up based on the latest conditions. Most locations are still in the 70s. Otherwise, conditions remain quiet for now as we monitor the showers in western NY and PA. Previous Discussion... High pressure in place across our region will attempt to slow down a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. This should keep most of the showers with the front west and south of the region through most of Saturday. Though a few of the models have a glancing blow from some light showers in NE PA and west of the Finger Lakes in NY. Coverage of showers should ramp up Saturday night given increasing moisture and lift ahead of the frontal boundary. QPF through Saturday night looks to be a half inch or less, so no concern for flooding issues. Instability also looks to be very little if any does happen to develop. Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer due to clouds only falling to around 50 then struggle to rise into the low 60's on Saturday. Lows look to end up a few degrees cooler Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 120 PM Update... Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms. Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 120 PM Update... A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 120 AM Update VFR to prevail areawide into the afternoon. Conditions fall from south to north late today and tonight. AVP will be the first to fall to MVFR with rain showers around 20z. Fuel alternate around 23z. BGM/ELM drop to MVFR around 22z then fuel alternate around 01z. ITH drop to MVFR around 00z. Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning. This afternoon and tonight winds will be 10 with gusts to 15 to 20 kts. Outlook... Overnight tonight through Sunday night...Periods of rain will bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday. Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR. Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG/TAC SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...TAC ####018004735#### FXUS64 KBRO 040533 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The combination of moist, low-level air, daytime heating, and mid to upper level energy could still support some convection to the west over neighboring Mexico late this afternoon through evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could potentially drift into Zapata, and possibly Starr and Jim Hogg counties later this afternoon and evening. SPC has placed the aforementioned areas in a marginal severe thunderstorm outlook area, with the remainder of the CWA in a general thunderstorm outlook area. The main threats would be large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. Otherwise, increasing low level moisture and light winds tonight may support patchy light fog, mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and near/over marine areas. With a weak cold front staying north of the area tomorrow, the CWA is not in a thunderstorm outlook area for day 2. Additionally, above normal temperatures (a few degrees above average) will continue through the short-term with highs generally ranging from the lower to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast, Saturday. Overnight temperatures will be warm with lows mainly in the mid 70s. Southeast winds will remain moderate to breezy. Moderate seas will sustain a moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The main event for the long term forecast period continues to be the above normal temperatures and the potential for some Heat Advisories to be issued next week. With the continued surface flow of southerly winds bring in more warm air to the region temperatures are expected to continue to rise. With the wind possibly having a southwesterly component to it as well during the period, that would allow for some dry, but even warmer air to move into the region. With the expected cloud coverage looking rather sparse as well during the upcoming work week, the incoming solar radiation will allow for even more heating during the day. While borderline for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday seem more likely days that will require Heat Advisories issued due the combination of the hot temperatures and very humid environment. High temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits for most of the area, with areas along the coast in the lower 90s. With an almost consistent zonal flow pattern aloft and a lack of any real forcing in the atmosphere, the long term forecast period is expected to be rain free. With that, there is not much expected to be in the form of relief from the heat expect maybe a bit of a breezy. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Light to moderate east winds and MVFR ceilings prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR conditions are expected to persist overnight and through much of today. However, periods of VFR ceilings will be possible later this morning into the afternoon. Although, MVFR ceilings will return by late in the period. Best chance of any convection remains north and west of the RGV aerodromes. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Tonight through Saturday night...Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to sometimes higher seas will prevail along the lower Texas Coast. Small craft should exercise caution conditions may occur at times. Sunday through Next Friday..Generally light to moderate winds and moderate seas will be in play through next Friday. This will lead to extended periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution as winds increase with the tight pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast. While rougher seas are also possible around Monday, requiring a low-end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 76 89 77 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 91 75 91 75 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 93 77 92 78 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 76 93 76 / 0 10 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 77 82 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 75 88 75 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...63-KC ####018005235#### FXUS64 KCRP 040534 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1234 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: - There is a low chance for isolated severe storms across the western Brush Country late this afternoon through late this evening. Main concern is this evening with the chances for thunderstorms, and whether they will become severe. High pressure is off to the east centered over Mississippi, and a sfc low is in northern Mexico. The pressure gradient has tightened over the Coastal Bend, and caused the winds to increase for a time this afternoon and into the evening. Thunderstorms are beginning to break out in the Big Bend region with the sfc trough that is aligned with the Rio Grande Valley. The HRRR/ARW/FV3 seem to have a good handle on this, with the GFS and ECMWF as well, but the larger models have weaker precipitation. Between 00z and 03z the storms are expected to move into northern Webb and Lasalle counties and move toward the southeast, but as they do the sfc high in Mississippi, is expected to build to the southwest, into the Coastal Bend, eastern Brush Country, and Victoria Crossroads. The models expect that the thunderstorms will get stopped by the sfc high, or pushed south down the Rio Grande Plains. The NAM barely has the thunder getting into the region, before it gets squashed. The only thing overnight then is isolated showers, and with the PWAT around 1.5" or better, a shower here or there is a low chance (<20%). Saturday, the front north of the Hill Country looks to remain there, with chances for rain to move south low (<10%), as the sfc high remains along the Coastal Bend. Saturday night, the models begin to move the front. the GFS pushes most of the thunderstorms to the east with the isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers creeping into the Brush Country. ECMWF pushes it a bit south and has a 500 mb shortwave that runs over the western part, kicking off rain in the western Hill Country, and getting rain into the Brush Country overnight. The NBM has a blend of the two solutions with slight chance to chance pops (15-40%) From Victoria to Laredo and locations north. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: - Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week Conditions begin with a low to medium chance (30-45%) for scattered thunderstorms Sunday. This will be due to some above normal PWAT values around the 99th percentile along with some associated energy from a upper level disturbance moving across the region to the north. The caveat with these storms will be the solid CIN values across the area which should largely keep things in check. The northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads should have the best chances for any convection due to some breaks in higher CIN values. Temperatures will warm after the disturbance clears and expect our next shot of summer weather by Tuesday. Unfortunately, heat indices will be in the 110-115 degree range across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country Tuesday through Thursday. Therefore, heat stress related impacts will likely occur and the proper preparations should be done in advance. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently have MVFR/VFR conditions across all terminals. While we look to largely stay MVFR, some IFR cigs will be possible mainly for eastern sites for a few hours late in the night. CIGS inprove during the day on Saturday to at least MVFR, but most sites will return to VFR. Southeasterly winds will gust 20 to 25 knots once again Saturday afternoon. MVFR CIGS will likely start to build back in toward the end of this period. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure to the east and low pressure to the west has strengthened our onshore flow this afternoon so that a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 100 AM Saturday Morning. However, the high pressure will nose into the Coastal Bend overnight allowing the flow to weaken. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day Sunday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through late next week with seas around 3-6 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 88 75 87 / 20 20 10 20 Victoria 73 87 73 85 / 30 10 30 30 Laredo 76 94 75 91 / 40 20 30 40 Alice 74 91 74 89 / 20 20 20 30 Rockport 75 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20 Cotulla 76 94 75 89 / 40 10 40 40 Kingsville 74 89 75 88 / 20 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 85 76 85 / 20 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ255-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...BF/80