####018008636#### FXUS64 KMAF 040550 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1250 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough persistently parked over SoCal/Baja, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a dryline extends from KTAT- KINK-KFST-K6R6. Td at KMAF @ 1430Z was 67F. As such, the 12Z KMAF RAOB came in w/4000 J/kg mucape, LI ~ -12, w/mesoanalysis suggesting what little cap there is is either already gone or soon will be. mid- lvl lapse rates are ~ 8.5 C/km, and environmental deep-layer shear 30kts. Shear is forecast to increase through this afternoon, and really ramp up tonight as the west coast trough begins moving east and a 40+kt LLJ ramps up after sundown. Needless to say, a continuing supercell threat is on tap for this afternoon/tonight along the dryline and last night's boundary that moved in from the northeast. We'll be throwing another balloon up at 18Z to further monitor the situation. S strong LLJ overnight and cloud cover will keep lows 5-7F above normal. Saturday, the west coast trough is forecast to be over southeast Arizona at 12Z-18Z, and arrive in West Texas 21-00Z. At the surface, a boundary from tonight's convection is expected to shove the dryline to the western border of the CWA, while a front pushes into the northeast by late morning, putting practically the whole of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the warm sector. Deep-layer shear increases to 30-40 kts, stretching out the hodographs, and lapse rates approach 10 C/km in the west near the dryline. Convection looks to get going earlier and farther west than any event yet this spring, and more widespread as well. The only promising detail is that forecast soundings saturate quite a bit by 00Z Sunday, w/PWATS at KMAF ramping up to over 1.5", which is about 2.5 std devs above the normal of 0.60". So perhaps some areas west of the Pecos, that really need it, may see a little relief. The other edge of that sword will be lightning-induced fire starts. The front will bring in cooler temperatures, and expected cloud cover/convection should keep highs right around normal. This activity could continue well into Saturday night. As the front settles in and instability decreases, there's indications this may transition to a heavy rain scenario, w/maybe even a little training along the front as it moves south. Lows will remain above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Things begin to quiet down after an active day on Saturday for your Sunday. Any thunderstorms that may be lingering across the eastern and southeastern portions of the region should continue to weaken and slide off to the southeast through the morning hours. The combination of cloud cover and a convectively worked over airmass may limit further thunderstorm activity through the late morning and afternoon on top of resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. Filtered sunshine should still allow for upper 70s and even 80s across the bulk of the area but any 90s are confined to the Rio Grande Valley. Though large scale support is expected to be waning as we transition to the backside of a departing trough, daytime heating may still result in enough destabilization along and east of the dryline for scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. The best chance of any additional thunderstorms will be focused across the eastern third of the region. Overnight temperatures remain mild in the 50s and 60s as the dryline sloshes back west, ushering in greater dewpoints. A relatively benign pattern takes over by the start of the new week. A large negatively-tilted trough is forecast to be lifting into the central and northern Great Plains on Monday. This acts to mix the dryline all the way east of the region, meaning we are warm and dry. This allows temperatures to quickly climb back into the 90s for the majority of locations. At night it remains warm but not as muggy with the dryline staying east. It should be slightly cooler further west behind the dryline. Tuesday and Wednesday see a similar forecast as Monday, albeit with slowly warming temperatures each day as quasi-zonal flow is maintained over the southern Great Plains. The next potential change in the forecast may not arrive until late in the week. A large positively-tilted trough axis appears to take shape from the Great Lakes to central Rocky Mountains. This may be enough to push a cold front south through portions of the area beginning sometime Thursday bringing cooler weather for some, especially on Friday. At this time, the dryline remains to the east and little moisture is expected behind the cold front. This means all of next week may be dry... Enjoy any rain while it lasts! -Chehak && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A very challenging aviation forecast this issuance, with MVFR ceilings expected to develop and impact all terminals except PEQ late tonight through Saturday morning. Ceilings will fall to around 1500-2000ft, with improvement expected by mid to late morning and VFR conditions returning areawide by 15Z-17Z. The main focus thereafter will be scattered severe thunderstorms initiating around 20Z-21Z, impacting area terminals through around 00Z-03Z before exiting to the east. Have included VCTS mention for all but CNM, and forecasts will be amended based on trends. Large hail, erratic gusty winds, and lightning are all possible, as well as IFR conditions in heavy rain. MVFR ceilings return areawide in the wake of the storms near and just beyond the end of the forecast period. Winds will generally be E/SE and intermittently gusty through the period with gusts to 20-30kt, stronger and variable near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through this evening for southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains. A passing disturbance this afternoon is causing relatively breezy conditions over the critically dry airmass behind the dryline in an area of ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile. Saturday should be very similar to today, though moisture and rainfall potential is expected to be pushed further west, limiting any fire weather concerns to the westernmost areas where elevated conditions are maintained behind the dryline. Sunday it continues to be dry behind the dryline from the western foothills to the Big Bend where locally elevated to near- critical fire weather may continue to be possible. Fire weather concerns ramp up into next week. A stronger trough passes to our north on Monday. This not only pushes the dryline east of the entire area meaning critical relative humidity for almost everyone, but winds are going to increase, especially across southeast Mexico and the higher terrain. Given the lack of rain and critically dry fuels out west, widespread critical fire weather is anticipated. Further to the east, while it remains dry, recent rainfall and better moisture return should limit fire potential. This trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday, though winds will slacken some, perhaps resulting in more localized critical conditions. A cold front is set to arrive by late week and may temporarily limit fire weather across much of the region. -Chehak && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 77 65 90 / 80 30 10 0 Carlsbad 59 88 58 88 / 40 0 0 0 Dryden 65 84 68 95 / 60 30 10 0 Fort Stockton 62 85 64 93 / 60 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 82 58 78 / 20 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 81 60 87 / 60 10 10 0 Marfa 51 87 50 87 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 79 65 90 / 80 20 10 0 Odessa 61 79 66 90 / 70 20 10 0 Wink 62 87 63 93 / 60 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...84 ####018006140#### FXUS64 KEPZ 040550 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1150 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Quiet weather conditions are expected through the end of the period. The winds will become breezy to windy Sunday and continue on into Monday. The temperatures will remain at and above the normal for most of the area though the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Currently, the winds are light to low-end breezy with sunny skies and the temperatures on the warm side. For tonight, conditions will be quiet with the winds becoming light and variable. The skies will increase in cloudiness as a weak shortwave moves on by from far Southwest. Due to this, the low temperatures on Saturday morning will be above the normal. For Saturday, another quiet day will be in store. The winds will be similar to that of today; however, there might just be a few passing clouds due to the gradual passage of the shortwave. The high temperatures in the afternoon will be on the warm side. By Sunday, a trough will dig across the Intermountain West, which will develop a lee cyclone across eastern Wyoming. Even though this is not a great area to develop windy conditions, a 700mb jet stream will move across areas north of the El Paso and Hudspeth counties and with some gradient in place, the winds will become breezy to windy. As of now, the winds look to be below the criteria. Conditions will be dry; thus, fire weather conditions will be of concerns by then. For the rest of the period, the winds will be breezy to at times windy as we stay under a dry westerly flow aloft. There will be a series of disturbances passing to our north while rotating across a positively tilted longwave trough, that will not bring any precipitation to our area. Monday will be the day with the strongest winds for the work week with fire weather conditions continuing on that day. The high temperatures for El Paso will be in upper 80s and lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Skies generally SKC-FEW250 overnight, becoming SCT250 Saturday morning. Surface winds 240-270 AOB 8 knots overnight, increasing to 210-240 at 10-15 knots again tomorrow afternoon. Peak gusts of 30 knots at KTCS midday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 For today and Saturday, conditions will be quiet with the winds light to breezy. The min RHs will be in the single digits except for in the Sacramento Mountains. Dry conditions will continue for the start of next week with the winds becoming breezy to windy. Due to this, fire weather conditions on Sunday will be critical to extreme across Southwest and South-Central Mexico. For Monday,strong winds will move across West Texas with critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected. The min RHs will continue to be in the single digits by then. For the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be dry with breezy winds and above normal temperatures. Fire weather concerns by then will be near to critical to critical. The min RHs on Saturday will be below 10% across much of area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be between 10 and 20%. The min RHs on Sunday will decrease slightly across the area, but will significantly decrease across the Sacramento Mountains by around 5%. The ventilation rates will be mostly excellent this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 85 52 86 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 55 88 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 42 64 40 63 / 0 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 53 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 51 86 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 83 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 89 52 89 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 53 91 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 90 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 74 42 75 / 0 10 10 0 Mescalero 45 75 44 74 / 0 10 10 0 Timberon 43 73 40 73 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 46 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 50 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 84 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 78 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 83 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner ####018005766#### FXUS64 KJAN 040551 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1251 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rest of tonight... Evening RAP analysis/GOES East water vapor imagery indicate shortwave axis moving through the northeastern portions of the region, with rain chances quickly dwindling. In the wake, there is some descent & GOES East total precipitable water (PWs) indicate some drying along the Gulf Coast & to the west. 00Z soundings, especially at SHV, indicate drying in the 700-300mb layer, with lowered mean RH's in this layer progged to spread eastward. This will continue to clear out cloudiness. With continued moist southerly flow gradually decoupling, lows falling into the low- mid 60s, crossover temps will reach nearly 3-6 degrees. This pattern supports low stratus & dense fog developing after midnight across the region. HREF probs >10-30% are widespread & convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate potential for areas of dense fog across the Gulf Coast region. There could be two zones of concern for dense fog, northwest of the Natchez Trace & to the southeast, with some decreased coverage along the Natchez Trace & I-55 corridor. Decided to not get too specific & went ahead with an areawide "Elevated" HWO graphic / Dense Fog advisory. The advisory runs from just after midnight through 9AM Saturday. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Tonight through Sunday night...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occuring across much of the area this afternoon, and this will continue before ending from west to east early this evening. Skies may clear some overnight, and with good radiational cooling patchy areas of dense fog will be possible early on Saturday. An HWO graphic will be issued for this potential. Another short wave will move into the area Saturday afternoon and this will kick off another round of shower's and storms. With a little better lapse rate/instability on Saturday, a strong to possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Little will change on Sunday as moisture continues and yet another in a series of short waves move across the area. Drier air begins to move into the area Sunday night. Highs through the weekend will be in the 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/ Monday into Friday...the overall forecast for next week remains similar. Focus will be well above normal/heat early into mid week, potential for severe storms mainly in the Thu-Fri periods, then followed by a marked cool down. The driver for the increasing warmth will be with a pattern shift to more of a ridge influence with the ridge axis over us Mon, then the ridge shifting eastward as we see a powerful system dive across the Rockies and Central Plains. We will be on the western periphery of the low level ridge/high and that will provide a decent S/SW lower level flow to bring in moisture and those well above normal lower level temps. Additionally, we will see capping in play which will keep rain/storm chances more in check. There's some 20-30% type PoPs for Mon-Wed, but this is more due to model variability and I expect this to lower some. The exception could be in the far N, where more proximity to the better lift could allow for better chances. As for severe weather potential...this is mainly looking like potential for a round or two sometime in the Thu/Fri periods. PoPs have come in higher which fits and will follow. Look for chances to continue to increase for a particular period as better timing starts to work itself out. Like yesterday and prev guidance, uncertainty is pretty decent on specifics and timing, which is often the case at day 6-7. However, the pattern and consistency for the needed ingredients (instability, steep lapse rates, moisture, shear, lift) continue to show up. I'll also add, later Wed night is a period to watch as well as there will likely be severe activity on-going to our NW/N which could migrate down into some of our northern area. Lastly, the ingredients I noted are all reaching very solid levels and fitting of a potentially upper end type event(s). Details will determine the type of severe, but at this time, confidence is on wind/hail. In the wake of this system, the trends are for a solid front/trough passage for the weekend which would bring much cooler conditions to the area. /CME/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 COnditions wl continue to lower to IFR/LIFR through 10Z and then prevail through 13Z. After 13Z conditions wl slowly improve through 16Z. After 16Z VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 66 83 66 85 / 30 50 30 30 Meridian 65 87 65 88 / 30 40 30 30 Vicksburg 67 83 67 86 / 30 50 30 20 Hattiesburg 66 87 67 89 / 10 30 10 20 Natchez 65 81 66 85 / 30 50 20 20 Greenville 67 80 67 83 / 40 60 40 30 Greenwood 67 83 67 85 / 40 70 40 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075. && $$ DC/15/CME/22 ####018005919#### FXUS63 KSGF 040551 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1251 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast and south central MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight. - Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain. - Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast. Rainfall during this period may be between 1 and 3 inches which may lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure over northern Missouri was helping to make for a nice day across the region though cloud cover remained across the region. A few showers or isolated storms were lingering across portions of south central Missouri where a lingering frontal boundary from an earlier front remained. This activity may continue through early evening but will dissipate quickly near and after dark. No severe weather is expected with this activity. A storm system associated with a cold front will approach the region overnight into Saturday morning. This frontal boundary will begin to push into far southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks around sunrise Saturday morning. the region is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather with this system. Expectations are that the line of strong to severe storms will move into the region with a potential weakening trend as low level and upper level winds will be rather weak, though instability looks to be from 1000-2500 j/kg thanks to a warm airmass and southerly winds. However, hail to quarters in size and damaging winds will be possible. some additional storms may develop and linger into the afternoon and evening but should transition to showers during the evening. Rainfall will also be a concern with wet antecedent conditions leading to potential local flooding. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A rather active pattern remains in the forecast for the next week with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and rainfall through the end of next week. Sunday: In the wake of the storms on Saturday, a surface/middle level shortwave or low will slide north across the southern plains and over the region. this will bring additional showers and storms to the region, though current indication suggest that this period would be below severe limits. The continued rain chances may lead to flooding concerns which will be the theme for the next 7 days. Monday - Tuesday: A strongly negatively tilted upper trough will move across the plains and swing a strongly forecast cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. The Ozarks will be in the warm sector ahead of this system with some models indicating as much as 3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE in advance of the front with mid level (40-50kt) and upper level jet support. The combination of instability and shear will bring the chance for severe weather to the region as a result through Tuesday morning. Once storms push through the region, a warm front will quickly lift back to the north through the Ozarks as low pressure develops in the plains. Wednesday- Friday: Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues the potential for additional severe storms for the middle of next week. The indications for Thursday and Friday are rather uncertain as the multiple rounds of storms a changing upper level pattern limits rain chances. With the multiple days where rain is possible wide spread 1 to 3 inch rain amounts will be possible through the forecast period. This may lead to at least localized flooding for areas that have already seen ample rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 BBG has about a 20-40% chance of seeing lowered visibilities overnight due to fog. Since confidence is on the low-medium side, left fog out of the BBG TAFs, for now. Otherwise, VFR for the next few hours with southeasterly winds before thunderstorms move in this morning. Expect rain to start by late morning and continue into the afternoon. Ceilings are forecast to drop to MVFR once the cold front moves through and remain there for the night. Winds will also shift to the north. Chance (20-30%) of more widespread fog tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with local higher amounts of rainfall through the period. Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A warm airmass will be in place across the region for the middle of next week. This may allow overnight low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday nights to remain warm and approach record warm minimum temperatures. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Soria HYDROLOGY...Hatch CLIMATE...Hatch ####018006258#### FXUS63 KBIS 040551 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1251 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain showers continue this evening over much of western and central ND, then mainly across the north overnight. - Temperatures are forecast to warm up through the weekend, with windy conditions on Sunday. - Chances for rain return late Sunday night and continue through the work week. The wettest period will be Monday through Tuesday when most of western and central North Dakota will see medium to high chances (60 to 90 percent) of rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The forecast looks to be in good shape for the late night update. A few showers continue along and just to the south of the International Border over the north central. For this update, just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 905 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Modified POPs a bit based on latest radar imagery and trends, otherwise the forecast remains in decent shape. Isolated to scattered showers across the south are diminishing as expected, with lingering showers north along the sfc trough axis/frontal boundary. UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 S/WV mid level trough swinging east-southeast across eastern Montana into western North Dakota continues to generate enough lift to maintain scattered showers across the local area late this afternoon/early this evening. Showers and clouds across the south should dissipate as we cool this evening, with clouds and chances for showers persisting across the north near an inverted sfc trough moving slowly south across the US/Canadian border tonight. Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s where we clear, remaining above freezing where clouds linger tonight. UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Just a quick update to increase shower coverage across southern ND for the next few hours, based on latest radar imagery and trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 An upper level low located over southern Ontario will continue to push eastward. Wrap around showers will continue across the northern half of the state. Instability is a bit lacking this afternoon for thunderstorms, but a rumble or two is still possible. Showers will decrease later this evening as instability from daytime heating decreases. Overcast skies from low cumulus has resulted in below normal temperatures with high temperatures in the lower 50s. Breezy winds are being observed across the state from a surface pressure gradient from the aforementioned upper low. A surface trough continues to push across the central half of the state turning winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s across the southwest as surface high pressure passes through the region. High temperatures Saturday will begin to trend upward to near normal as surface high pressure clears out the region and ridging begins to build out west over the Northern Rockies. Sunday is forecast to be the warmest day as temperatures are forecast to climb into the 60s to 70s out west due to the upper level ridge pushing into the region. In addition a strong surface low will move into eastern Montana with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to windy conditions across western and south central North Dakota. Forecast soundings at this time have around 45 kts mixing down to the surface which will result in advisory level winds. This short term warm up will be short lived as another broad trough pushes across Western CONUS. A strong upper level low pressure system will move up from the Rocky Mountains Monday leading to widespread precipitation across the Northern Plains. The NBM has 50 percent chance of 1 inch rain across the Northern half of the state where the deformation band will likely set up. PWATs are pretty impressive for this event with values around 1.1 inches. Heavy rain is possible from stronger storms. However, there are some areas that could see significantly less rain depending on where the dry slot sets up. Thunderstorms are possible as the system first moves into the region. Instability around 500 j/kg which continues to decrease, however 0-500 mb shear is around 40 kts. CSU Machine Learning Program has backed off on severe weather parameters due to the ensembles having decreased instability, but there still is low chance for severe weather Monday. In addition to rain, windy conditions are expected Monday as a strong surface low with a tight pressure gradient moves through the region. Wrap around precipitation will continue through Wednesday leading to showers and cooler conditions. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the 50s through the middle of the week. After this system washes out near normal temperatures will continue until potential ridge moves into the region late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A few showers will continue overnight, mainly along the International Border across the north central and northeast. A band of MVFR to IFR stratus will move in from Canada overnight and sag into the northwest, north central, and perhaps to the northern fringes of the James River Valley. KMOT will likely see MVFR to IFR ceilings until late Saturday morning or early afternoon. Sites KXWA, KBIS, and KJMS will be right on the western and southern edges of this stratus band. Therefore, it isn't out of the question that some MVFR ceilings will occasionally impact these sites at times through Saturday morning. KDIK should remain in VFR conditions through the period. A few isolated showers may once again develop across the north central and northeast Saturday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...ZH ####018007244#### FXUS64 KSHV 040554 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1254 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Much quieter night, as current radar shows nothing across the region. Short-term progs suggest this will continue overnight, although the GFS has some possible isolated activity in our northern zones after midnight. There is also a decaying cluster of convection moving eastward out of North and Central Texas towards the region. Given the moist and somewhat unstable environment in place, wouldn't be surprised if an isolated shower or thunderstorm developed anywhere across the area overnight, especially when that decaying boundary moves into the area. Also, there is the potential for some dense fog, especially across our Louisiana and South-Central Arkansas zones. Decided to hold off on any advisories at this time, but this will need to be monitored closely, as we are already seeing reduced vsbys in portions of the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection that originated across Oklahoma and North Texas late yesterday has finally departed the area as a shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the Tennessee River Valley. Farther southwest, another weak perturbation in the southwesterly flow aloft has helped to sustained showers and thunderstorms along a remnant outflow boundary across Southeast Texas and South Louisiana. Radar trends over the last couple of hours continue to show redevelopment along the northwest flank of this line in Central Texas. So far, this activity has been quickly weakening with eastward extent as it nears our Deep East Texas counties, mostly likely encountering a more stable airmass. Current thinking is the heaviest precip should remain south and southwest of the area and should dissipate by sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and weakening of large scale forcing. The latest CAMs suggest a few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this evening and tonight, mainly north of Interstate 20, but only slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast. Overnight, another complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form ahead of a cold front across Kansas and Oklahoma, which should dive southeast towards the CWA. This complex should be weakening as it moves into southeast Oklahoma around daybreak Saturday. However, renewed development and intensification is expected, especially during peak daytime heating in the afternoon. Based on the latest CAMs and short- range ensembles, current thinking coverage will mainly be scattered but will likely coverage much of the area. Given the expected coverage, I felt the NBM PoPs were too way and much of the short-term rain chances were trended toward the HREF. There should be enough instability and deep layer shear to support a marginal risk for large hail and damaging winds, especially during Saturday afternoon through early evening. Initial development in the afternoon may begin as far north as I-30 before spreading southeast across the region. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another complex of strong to severe storms will develop along the dryline in West Texas and may begin to affect the area early Sunday morning. CN && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Robust convection will likely be ongoing across the area near or shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. While the cold front is once again expected to stall in our northern zones before retreating back to the north again, a potent shortwave trough moving across Texas and Oklahoma should help sustain strong thunderstorms for much of the day Sunday. A few isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly posing a risk for damaging winds. Rain chances should diminish during the evening as the shortwave lifts northeast and forcing weakens. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in Deep East Texas south of I-20. However, current thinking is that the threat for flooding will remain isolated and localized, and it will have been a few days between rain events. However, if QPF amounts increase in future forecasts, a Flood Watch may need to be issued. Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast into next week with near daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of I-20 as deep southerly flow persists across the region. A longwave trough will move northeast across the Central and Northern Plains pushing a cold front closer to the region. This should bring a chance for more strong, possibly, severe thunderstorms to parts of the area next Tuesday and Wednesday. The extent of the severe weather threat is still highly uncertain, but the best chances appear to be north of I-20, and especially across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. Another growing concern will be the unseasonable heat. Strong southerly flow and warm air advection will result in rising temperatures despite the persistent rain chances in the forecast. From Tuesday through Thursday, there is a high chance (60 to 80 percent chance) of daytime high temperatures of 90 degrees F or greater across much of Louisiana and into portions of Southwest Arkansas and Deep East Texas. Combined with the high humidity, peak heat index values should be near or above 100 degrees F. Cooler temperatures may return by the end of the week. CN && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Terminal winds have gone just about calm airspace wide this evening and given the close T/Td relations, some BR has started to develop, reducing VSBY at select terminals. That being said, cirrus will continue to filter across the airspace over the next several hours, which may limit the extent of the BR influence VSBY impact. Over the next few hours though, given limited cloud coverage across the central and eastern airspace terminals, VSBY will likely continue to fall through early Saturday morning. Just after 12z, VSBY should recover, with much of the airspace under dense OVC with some gradual BKN returning by the evening. While this package does not discuss the arrival of SHRA/TSRA, the 12z period will begin to introduce this. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 68 79 69 / 50 40 80 20 MLU 86 67 80 66 / 40 30 60 30 DEQ 82 65 75 63 / 40 50 90 20 TXK 84 66 78 66 / 40 40 80 30 ELD 84 65 79 63 / 50 30 70 30 TYR 82 66 78 68 / 40 60 80 20 GGG 83 67 78 68 / 50 50 80 20 LFK 84 68 80 68 / 40 40 80 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...53