####018006127#### FXUS65 KPSR 040556 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1056 PM MST Fri May 3 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Slightly above normal temperatures are expected through tomorrow, with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will traverse the Intermountain West this weekend leading to widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday evening and Sunday, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry, warm weather continues across the region today as quasi-zonal flow persists across the southwestern CONUS. Afternoon visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies persisting across the CWA as dry southwesterly flow aloft continues. Through tomorrow, 500 mb heights will remain consistent around 572-575 dm for our area and thus high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today's in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Light winds today will give way to increasingly stronger winds starting tomorrow in response to an approaching weather system that will impact the region this weekend. The aforementioned weather system is currently seen on satellite WV imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. Guidance show this closed low diving southward along the West Coast through the start of the weekend before progressing inland across the Great Basin Sunday. Though the greatest negative height anomalies will remain north of our area, decreasing heights and increasing gradients will promote strong winds and cooler temperatures as we head through the weekend. Strong winds will pick up across southeast California starting tomorrow afternoon/evening, particularly across Imperial County and Joshua Tree National Park where gusts are likely (>80%) to exceed 40 mph at times. Wind Advisories are in effect for these areas and the Wind Advisory for much of Imperial County is now in effect through Sunday evening. Sunday, strong winds will spread across Arizona as the closed low moves inland across the Great Basin while the associated dry cold front moves through the region. Wind gusts are likely (>70%) to climb upwards of 30-40 mph across much of the forecast area, while some areas may see gusts in excess of 40 mph at times, particularly areas across Imperial County and southern Gila County. Additional Wind Advisories may be needed for some areas as we get closer. The strong winds this weekend may lead to the development of dust channels across dust prone areas, which could reduce visibilities and make travel hazardous. Outside of the strong winds, temperatures will fall below normal Sunday, especially across southeast California and southwest Arizona where well below normal highs are only forecast to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with the passage of the cold front. Across south-central Arizona, temperatures won't see as significant of a drop with lower desert highs Sunday in the mid to upper 80s. The closed low will eject to the northeast for the start of the new workweek with lighter winds prevailing across the region. Global ensembles then favor longwave troughing persisting across the western CONUS through much of next week. Temperatures will gradually warm back up near to slightly above normal with daily afternoon highs across lower elevation areas climbing into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0556Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: W to SW winds will continue for another few hours, then easterly winds should develop by 09-10Z. Very similar conditions are forecast for Saturday, as seen on Friday, with southerly variability midday/early-afternoon, then late afternoon westerly gusts to around 20 kts. FEW to SCT high clouds will pass over the area at times. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will generally be southerly through the period at BLH aob 10 kts, while westerly winds at IPL winds will shift back SE around sunrise Saturday. Southerly winds at KBLH will increase up to 15-20 kts in the afternoon with peak gusts up to 25-30 kts. Winds will be stronger at KIPL in the late-afternoon and evening with westerly winds up to 20-25 kts and peak gusts in excess of 30 kts. Skies will remain mostly clear through mid-afternoon before SCT to BKN high clouds pass over the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will persist into this weekend, with light and diurnal winds and typical afternoon breeziness today. Afternoon highs will remain slightly above normal through tomorrow in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Gusty winds will begin to increase across the region in response to an approaching weather system starting Saturday afternoon/evening, particularly across parts of southeast California where gusts are expected to exceed 40 mph at times. Strong winds increase across Arizona heading into Sunday afternoon with gusts across south-central and southwest Arizona climbing upwards of 30-40 mph and some gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph, particularly across southern Gila County. The strong winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this weekend. Min RHs through the weekend will be around 10-20%, while overnight Max RHs will be around 30-60% for most areas. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ560. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ563>567. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Benedict FIRE WEATHER...Smith ####018004103#### FXUS63 KGRR 040556 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 156 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night - Dry end of the weekend - Many chances for rain next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Nighttime microphysics imagery shows low clouds beginning to fill in across Southeast Lower Michigan this evening. Observations confirm the low clouds with bases below 1,000 feet at several sites. This stratus should expand and roll into Southwest Lower Michigan from the east overnight as easterly winds advect the clouds in. So, quite a bit of the area will be mostly cloudy at daybreak. Some fog is expected as well, especially near and north of I-96. Visibilities below 1 mile are expected. Maximum extent of the stratus and fog should be around 700am. We expect clearing to take place by midday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 - Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will draw up moisture from the south Saturday into Saturday night. Instability increases as well later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but overall remains weak. Aloft some upper level divergence is seen Saturday night over the CWA so that may enhance the lift. Thus the combination of moisture, lift and instability will likely lead to showers and a few storms. Ensemble QPF values, while low, have been trending up with the precipitation for this period. - Dry end of the weekend High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will produce plenty of sunshine Sunday. Highs will climb to a couple of degree either side of 70. - Many chances for rain next week The persistent upper trough over the western US is progd to cut off over the northern High Plains during the middle of the week. The result will be several short waves that move in our direction and bring chances for showers and storms. Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be a time frame that will see increased chances for precipitation. An occluded front will lift north toward Lower MI Tuesday afternoon and this will produce some showers/storms. Present indications are that the strongest instability will remain south of the state. However, that could changed this far out. SPC has already highlighted areas to the southwest of the state for the potential of severe storms. Another chance of showers/storms will come Thursday and Thursday night, when the surface low over the northern Plains moves east. Accompanying short waves and a feed of moisture rich air from the south will spur convective development during this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Areas of IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys expected through mid morning Saturday due to fog and low stratus patches drifting westward from the east side of the state. Conditions turning VFR again by Saturday afternoon with a scattered to broken cumulus deck lifting to around 4500 ft. An isolated shower or tstm cannot be ruled out inland from Lk MI in the late afternoon but the potential (and the coverage) looks too low to include in the TAFs. The primary risk of showers and storms holds off until after 06Z Sunday with perhaps the exception of MKG which may see that threat materialize by 04Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Southerly flow will be on the increase Saturday into Saturday night as a front moves in from the west. This will be warm air advection and overall the values are expected to remain under 20 knots. Thus we don't plan on needing headlines a this time. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Duke DISCUSSION...MJS/04 AVIATION...Meade MARINE...MJS ####018005217#### FXUS64 KEWX 040556 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1256 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 We have allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire. The lone severe storm over northeast Edwards County is weakening as it moves into a more stable area. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS... Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for all counties in the watch but Val Verde. A severe storm in Kimble County is moving slowly south and will move into portions of northwest Kerr and northeast Edwards Counties over the next hour. Eventual weakening should take place as the storm encounter increasing convective inhibition. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to early overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day, there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Cirrus shield from earlier convection continues to move eastward as low clouds expand westward. We have made minor adjustments to the forecast over the next few hours as upper level clouds may delay the onset of IFR along the I-35 corridor. Otherwise, no significant changes have been made through the overnight hours with IFR cigs and patchy fog developing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 69 82 71 / 20 70 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 68 82 70 / 10 60 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 71 84 71 / 10 60 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 82 67 80 70 / 30 70 60 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 72 87 74 / 30 70 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 67 80 69 / 30 70 60 20 Hondo Muni Airport 88 69 83 70 / 20 70 60 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 69 83 70 / 10 60 60 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 72 82 72 / 10 40 50 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 71 83 72 / 10 60 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 89 72 85 73 / 10 60 60 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...18 Aviation...Platt