####018009484#### FXUS66 KMFR 040600 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1100 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 Updated AVIATION Section && .DISCUSSION...Radar imagery this evening is showing a widespread band of precipitation moving east through the region, with the leading edge of the band at just about the border between Jackson/Douglas counties and Klamath. So far we've seen about 0.40-0.80" reported by stations in Coos, Curry, and northwest Douglas counties; 0.10-0.20" in Josephine and the remainder of Douglas; and a whole 0.01" in Medford and along the Cascades, where rain is juts getting going. Precipitation will continue in the aforementioned areas as well as continue to spread east through the region overnight into early Saturday. Most of the precipitation out there is hitting the ground as rain right now, with snow levels above 7,000 feet. This will swiftly change overnight into Saturday morning as very cold air (for this time of year) filters into the region and snow levels crash. For more details on this system and those upcoming, please see the previous discussion below. No major changes to the forecast were needed this evening besides slight adjustments to how fast precipitation was moving eastwards. -CSP && .AVIATION...04/06Z TAFs...Unfavorable flying conditions are expected through at least 19Z as a potent frontal system moves through. Widespread MVFR ceilings, terrain obscurations and periods of moderate rain and mountain snow can be expected. Local IFR is occurring as well in times of heavier precip. Some wet snow could even mix in with the rain briefly later this morning in Klamath Falls. Precipitation behind the front will become more showery this afternoon, but we still expect plenty of MVFR along with areas of higher terrain obscured through this evening. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM Friday, May 3, 2024...A cold front moving through the region will continue to bring moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas as it passes onshore this evening. Following the front, seas will remain steep, dominated by fresh short period west swell through tonight. Showers continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms (20%) on Saturday. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Another front arrives Sunday night into Monday with the potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west- northwest seas into Tuesday. After that, we expect high pressure to build in mid- late next week with a thermal trough strengthening along the coast. This will bring a return of stronger north winds and steep seas, highest south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde/BPN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024/ SHORT TERM...Through Monday morning...An approaching low pressure system is already bringing rainfall to the Oregon coast. Rainfall will continue through the night over Coos, Curry, and western Douglas counties. Precipitation will steadily move eastward across the area through Saturday. Coastal areas will see about 2 to 3 inches of rainfall while west side valleys will get between half an inch and an inch of rain. Klamath and Modoc counties will get similar amounts of rainfall while Lake County will generally get half an inch of rain or less. The heaviest amounts will be late tonight through early Saturday morning. This system is bringing unseasonably cold air aloft, which will bring snow levels down from their current 8000 feet to 3000 feet by Saturday morning. While most snowfall will remain over higher terrain, the amount of moisture and the fast drop in snow levels will bring periods of heavy snow to the Cascades and to western Siskiyou County. Currently, 4 to 6 inches of snow are expected at elevations above 4000 feet for the Cascades and Siskiyou ranges, with a 20-30% chance of more than 6 inches over the Cascades by Sunday morning. Additionally, high resolution guidance shows a 40- 80% chance of snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Saturday morning. Due to the dangerous travel conditions that these conditions are expected to make, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for parts of western Siskiyou County from 2 AM to 11 AM on Saturday and for the Cascades from 2 AM to 11 PM on Saturday. This system will also bring elevated winds, especially across elevated terrain east of the Cascades. A Wind Advisory is in place for higher terrain in Lake County from Saturday at 5 AM through 5 PM. Gusty winds reaching over 40 mph are expected in this time, while wind gusts could still exceed 30 mph in other areas of Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties. One final impact from this system will be a drop in nighttime temperatures from Saturday to Sunday. Temperatures will drop to the high teens to mid 20s for areas east of the Cascades. Below freezing temperatures are also possible west of the Cascades, although right now only the Shasta and Scott valleys look to be significantly below freezing. A Freeze Watch is in place for those valleys on Sunday morning, but below freezing temperatures are possible for the Rogue and Illinois valleys as well. Future guidance will help determine if additional products will be needed, bur right now that looks unlikely. The effects of the system continue through Sunday, but are most likely limited to post-frontal showers over the Oregon coast and the Cascades. Cool daytime temperatures will continue and nighttime temperatures look to warm from Saturday night's levels. -TAD LONG TERM DISCUSSION...Models continue to show a front moving across the area on Monday with high chances (60 to 100 percent) across most the area. Precipitation amounts with this front on Monday will be mainly light with some moderate amounts (0.25 inches or more) over the Cascades, coastal mountains and along the coast. Snow levels will range from 4000 to 5500 feet. Additionally, models and ensembles support a slight chance (20%) for thunderstorms Monday afternoon across portions of southwest Oregon, including Coos, Douglas, Klamath and Lake Counties. Brief downpours and gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that develop. Then, moist, onshore flow will allow for lingering showers on Tuesday, especially across southwest Oregon zones with lesser chances across Northern California. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday and remains in place through the end of the wee. This will bring drier and much warmer weather. By Friday, high temperatures will likely be in the 80s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the 70s for valleys east of the Cascades. AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs...Prevailing VFR this morning will drop back to MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys as a potent cold front moves in, with periods of moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation this afternoon. VFR will prevail elsewhere inland through late this afternoon/early this evening. The front will spread moderate precipitation across the rest of the west side tonight, reaching east of the Cascades Saturday morning. Expect widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR in rain with higher terrain obscured in rain/snow. A rapid drop in freezing levels will occur overnight (~09-15Z) from west to east and especially around 12Z Saturday morning near the Cascades. Rain will change to snow down to as low as 2500 feet with brief heavy snow in the mountains, reducing visibility to LIFR at times. Breezy south winds are expected with the front too, with peak gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Despite the increasing winds, low level wind shear is not a concern at this time. Conditions should improve a bit behind the front with precipitation becoming more showery, but still with a good amount of MVFR ceilings/visibility through tomorrow morning. -Spilde/BPN MARINE...Updated 200 PM Friday, May 3, 2024...A cold front will move through today into this evening with moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas. Following the front, seas will remain steep, dominated by fresh short period west swell through tonight. Showers continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms (20%) on Saturday. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Another front arrives Sunday night into Monday with the potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west-northwest seas into Tuesday. After that, we expect high pressure to build in mid-late next week with a thermal trough strengthening along the coast. This will bring a return of stronger north winds and steep seas, highest south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde/BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ030-031. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for CAZ080. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CAZ080-081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ ####018005841#### FXUS63 KMPX 040600 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 100 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this evening through Saturday morning. - Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer temperatures expected Sunday. - Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5" while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s) but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong, negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating, widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains. After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Rain showers will spread across the area this morning, impacting western MN overnight through sunrise, central & eastern MN through early to mid-morning, & western WI mid-morning into early afternoon. Predominately low-end MVFR visibility & ceilings are expected with the rain, although periods of IFR conditions are possible. MVFR ceilings will linger for a few hours after the rain ends, with ceilings eventually rising & clearing out through the afternoon. Winds will generally be northerly to northwesterly between 5-10 kts, with some gusts up to 20kts during the morning through mid-afternoon. WInds drop below 5 kts after sunset with clear skies overnight. KMSP...Rain is expected to start between 6-7 AM with visibility down to 3 miles & ceilings around 1000 ft expected. Brief IFR conditions are possible during the heaviest rain, more likely as lower ceilings as opposed to visibility. The rain will end around noon with MVFR ceilings lingering into mid-afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there). && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...ETA HYDROLOGY...CCS ####018007366#### FXUS61 KRLX 040601 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 201 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 930 PM Friday... Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder continue across portions of the area, particularly our far northeast zones in West Virginia. Locally heavy rain up to the tune of nearly 2" or so has been observed across portions of northeast West Virginia this evening. Fortunately, antecedent dry conditions mitigated any water issues of note. Isolated heavy downpours are possible over the next hour or two, with a transition to the chance for mainly isolated and lighter showers throughout the rest of the overnight. Some fog development is anticipated tonight, particularly in areas that received rainfall this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 355 PM Friday... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed once again this afternoon along the spine of the higher terrain courtesy of diurnal anabatic convergence. Have introduced likely PoPs into the evening across this area, with some locally heavy downpours possible. Given weak low/mid mean layer flow from the southwest, activity should continue to gradually meander northeastward. Given the slow movement, a highly isolated water issue or two cannot be ruled out, but rain rates should generally ease as time goes on given a developing cold pool across the region. Further west, SCT showers are moving into the Mid-Ohio Valley as weak mid/upper level forcing begins to push into the region. Showers will continue to shift eastward throughout the late afternoon into the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 129 PM Friday... As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with better instability present. Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe. However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions. Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1128 AM Friday... More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1129 AM Friday... The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes. Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Saturday... Isolated to scattered showers continue to move across the area, bringing periodic restrictions to visibility early this morning. Additional CIG/VIS restrictions will be possible in low stratus and some areas of fog developing this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread to most locations during the day as a passing disturbance brings more showers and storms across the area. A temporary improvement could occur this afternoon, then ceilings should lower again beyond 00Z. Visibilities will also continue to be impaired today into tonight during any heavier showers or storms. Calm to light and variable flow will persist through the early morning. Flow becomes southerly to southeasterly during the day, with light sustained winds and 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary from the forecast this morning. Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/04/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JLB ####018003495#### FXUS62 KCHS 040601 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 201 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Late this evening: Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing. Model guidance favors far interior southeast Georgia for overnight convection, mainly Tattnall, Evans, Candler, Bulloch, Screven, and Jenkins counties. This make sense as this area will feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.5" precipitable water values) will be present there. We don't anticipate the coverage will be too high, mainly in the isolated to scattered range. Conditions will not be nearly as conducive for fog development tonight, though some patchy fog will be possible across the inland tier. Lows will be mild, with mid to upper 60s across the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern coastline, while across the southeastern states a series of shortwave troughs ripple through. At the surface high pressure will extend into the region from the east. Between the shortwave energy aloft and the afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. While a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the overall severe threat will be low. Shear values are not impressive and there appears to be model disagreements on how much instability will be in place. High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are forecast Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight low temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal, generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack of any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm activity. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s by Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below advisory levels, temperatures could approach record levels on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday. && .MARINE... Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds will average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across the local marine waters through the period, yielding rather benign conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out of the southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE... ####018008715#### FXUS62 KGSP 040604 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 204 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front will stall over the region through the weekend resulting in periodic showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected today into tonight, with only scattered activity expected on Sunday. A general summertime pattern sets up early next week, which will keep scattered thunderstorm chances around each afternoon. Highs will trend well above normal by Tuesday, remaining well above normal through at least Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 150 am EDT Saturday: An upper ridge axis persists near the SE Coast. Isolated-to-scattered convection persists this morning upstream of the ridge, generally ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Little change in the pattern or vertical profiles will occur overnight, such that a few hundred joules of MUCAPE will linger in southerly flow regime. Thus scattered showers and a few t-storms are expected to continue, mainly across western areas over the next 1-3 hours. However, signals in convection-allowing guidance remain relatively strong that the main focus for scattered/perhaps numerous convective coverage will shift to the eastern third or so of the CWA toward sunrise. The main threats from any storms/deeper showers are expected to be locally heavy rainfall and occl c-g lightning. Outflow from earlier storms left behind a nearly saturated PBL in some spots, and some locally dense fog can't be ruled out in such areas this morning. Min temps will be well above normal. Convective coverage should increase throughout the daylight hours as forcing from the approaching trough increases. Instability and shear will remain on the weak side, while forecast profiles show an even more saturated atmosphere...with PWATs in the 90th-99th percentile for this date. This suggests even less chance of strong to severe storms, with an uptick in the heavy rain potential. That said, the overall flood risk remains low given the dry antecedent conditions. Highs will be near normal due to clouds and precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Friday: The rest of the weekend looks active right into the first part of next week. A baggy upper trof overhead on Saturday night slowly lifts northeast with a short wave passage, and this bit of lingering forcing will be able to keep shower/thunderstorm activity on a slow wane into the early morning hours. Guidance suggests that it will never die off entirely, so the fcst retains some fairly high precip probs. That sets the stage for Sunday. Models show less forcing, but an uptick in the available buoyancy in the afternoon. That should make for a more thermodynamically-driven day, with better than climo coverage of showers and storms. Forecast soundings off the NAM show some pulse-severe wind damage potential with mid-level dry air and a shallow inverted-V, so it would not come as a surprise if it was a busier day than Saturday. A stronger short wave lifting northeast over the TN/OH Valley regions on Monday will continue to support diurnally-enhanced convection, so we continue with above climo precip probs. Temps look to be on the order of five degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday: Weak upper ridging builds into the Carolinas on Tuesday while an upper shortwave tracks overhead the forecast area. This will act to keep shower and thunderstorm chances around across most of the forecast area. Have the highest PoPs (likely) confined to the NC/TN border, with chance PoPs elsewhere (the exception being the far southern tier of the CWA where there are no mentionable PoPs). With shear values expected to range from 25-35 kts and SBCAPE values around 1500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon, isolated strong to severe storms seem plausible. Tuesday night into Wednesday weak upper ridging will continue building across Carolinas. This should generally lead to lower convective chances compared to Tuesday. Thus, capped PoPs to chance across the western two-thirds of the forecast area. However, since cloud cover is currently expected to be lower on Wednesday, global models depict SBCAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg during peak heating, with shear still generally ranging from 25-35 kts. Thus, diurnal strong to severe storms will be possible again on Wednesday. At the sfc, a cold front will slowly progress eastward out of the central US but will remain well west of the Carolinas. This will lead to W/SW'ly 850 mb flow in place Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing temps will climb into the mid to upper 80s east of the mts and across the mtn valleys each afternoon. A few locations along I-77 in the southern NC Piedmont may even see highs reach 90 degrees on Wednesday. Thus, highs should end up around 6-12 degrees above climo. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night should end up around 12-15 degrees above climo thanks to some lingering cloud cover and SW'ly sfc winds. The aforementioned cold front will continue trekking eastward Thursday into Friday leading to better shower and thunderstorm chances for the western Carolinas as well as the potential for locally heavy rainfall (especially for areas that received rainfall earlier in the week). Convection will be in place well ahead of the front Thursday into Friday so have chance PoPs painted across the entire area. The only exception is the NC mtns where likely PoPs are in place for Thursday. The actual FROPA itself should track across the western Carolinas Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. The front will allow shear values to increase slightly, ranging from 35-45 kts. Guidance shows SBCAPE values ranging from ~1500-2000 J/kg on Thursday afternoon so the potential for strong to severe storms will return once again. Depending on how fast activity pushes south and east on Friday, the potential for strong to severe storms may return again Friday afternoon (mainly along and east of I-85). Temps will climb back into the mid to upper 80s Thursday afternoon across the mtn valleys and east of the mtns. A few locations along I-77 in the southern NC Piedmont may once again see highs reach 90 degrees. Slightly cooler temps can be expected on Friday behind the cold front, with highs only climbing into the lower to mid 80s east of the mtns. Lows Thursday night will remain ~12-14 degrees above climo, becoming ~5 degrees above climo Friday night behind the cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Very messy aviation forecast this period, as unusually high moisture levels for the time of year combined with weak lift and instability will yield periods of convection and cig/ visby restrictions through much of the period. Isolated convection, including some TSRA is ongoing across the area early this morning, warranting VCTS at KAND/KGMU. The convective potential as well as the likelihood of lowering cigs is expected to steadily increase toward sunrise, warranting tempos for SHRA and IFR/MVFR conditions. Can't rule out a TSRA during this time frame, but believe the potential should be higher later in the morning into the afternoon. Cigs are forecast to settle to IFR by late morning, with conditions expected to be slow to improve into the afternoon. The potential for TSRA warrants a Prob30 for such at all sites from late morning through much of the afternoon. This is accompanied by categorical SHRA and MVFR visby. The convective potential is expected to steadily decrease toward the latter few hours of the period. However, at least VCSH is warranted Sat evening into the early part of Sunday. Any modest improvement in cigs/visby during the afternoon will be reversed by late evening. Outlook: Enhanced moisture will combine with a weak/stalled front through early next week, resulting in a period of active/mainly diurnal convective weather each day. There will also be the potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH/Wimberley SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...JDL