####018012419#### FXUS65 KABQ 040605 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1205 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Severe weather is possible this afternoon in far eastern New Mexico and again tomorrow afternoon and evening in the southeast. Dry, warm, and windy weather begins Sunday and persists through Wednesday, creating widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 The 1pm SPC mesoanalysis across northeast NM shows an area of low level convergence with MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg, effective bulk shear values close to 30 kt, lifted indices near -6C, and surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Convective initiation along the I-25 corridor between Las Vegas and Raton will develop upstream into this airmass thru late afternoon where SPC still has a Marginal Risk for severe storms. 'Severe Weather Outlook' timing shows the main threat window for damaging wind and large hail impacts between about 2pm and 8pm from Clayton to Clovis. These storms will move east/northeast into TX after sunset. Low level return flow then deepens westward across eastern NM thru midnight followed by a strong backdoor cold front overnight. Northerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected thru sunrise across northeast and east-central NM. This boundary will allow a few more showers and perhaps a couple storms to develop overnight, along with widespread low stratus for eastern NM by sunrise. There is high likelihood the front will also push thru gaps in the central mt chain and allow for a period of perhaps moderate canyon winds in ABQ. Gusts up to 50 mph may occur immediately downwind of Tijeras Canyon. The focus then shifts to a potential second round of severe weather across southeast NM Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will veer out of the east then southeast thru the day across eastern NM with the deepest moisture and instability persists over Chaves, Roosevelt, and perhaps Curry counties. A 70-80kt upper level speed max will approach from the southwest and allow bulk shear values to increase over 45kt. The latest SPC outlook now has a Slight Risk for severe storms over parts of Roosevelt and Chaves counties. The main threat window will occur between 2pm and 8pm with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat again. There is however a small tornado probability in this area compared to today. The Marginal Risk area was also extended farther west where a few strong storms may occur around Santa Rosa to Tucumcari and Ft Sumner. Meanwhile, sufficient mid level moisture with low level southeasterly flow, orographics, and daytime heating across northern NM will allow for a few showers and storms to develop during the afternoon. This activity is more on the wet/dry side and will be capable of producing brief rain with strong gusty winds. Showers and storms may continue through late Saturday evening across eastern NM followed by more low stratus and perhaps some patchy fog. Moderate gap winds will return to the Rio Grande Valley as well with potential for gusts up to 50 mph again below Tijeras Canyon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Dry southwest flow takes over Sunday out ahead of a trough, increasing wind speeds and dropping dewpoints. Despite winds trending down somewhat, patchy blowing dust is still likely across the lower elevations of western and central NM. On the other hand, winds have trended stronger during the Sunday night/early Monday time frame along a Pacific cold front that will sweep across the state from west to east. Moisture looks to be just deep enough for some showers across the northwest along the front, but precipitation amounts are expected to remain below 0.1". Monday will be both drier and cooler than Sunday in the wake of the front, with temps a few to as much as 10 degrees below seasonal averages. The strongest winds on Monday will focus along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains thanks to the development of a ~996 sfc low in the TX Panhandle. Troughing hangs around over the High Plains Monday through Wednesday, allowing zonal flow to persist across central and northern NM. 700 mb winds won't be anomalously strong, but the combination of sunny skies and unidirectional westerly flow will efficiently mix stronger winds down to the surface during the afternoon hours. High temps each day will hover near seasonal averages. It looks like the critical fire weather pattern will finally break down late in the week as the High Plains trough moves eastward into the Great Lakes region. That being said, guidance is in disagreement on how quickly this transitions will occur. Storm chances will favor the northeast corner of the state late in the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 A strong backdoor cold front will briefly produce wind gusts up to 40 KT as it dives southwestward through the eastern plains for the remainder of tonight, except near 45 KT across northeast areas. The front is forecast to push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a strong east canyon wind in the central valleys from Santa Fe southward. Gusts could reach up to 35 KT at KSAF, up to 45 KT at KABQ, and up to 35 KT in Carrizozo. An Airport Weather Warning will be issued for KABQ for wind gusts exceeding 35 KT from 12-18Z Saturday morning. Areas of low clouds are expected to produce MVFR and localized IFR conditions behind the front across the far northeast and east central plains, and more of the southeast plains, late tonight through much of Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast over northern and eastern areas. Some storms are likely to produce large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado over southeast areas. Meanwhile, some cells over the continental divide region Saturday afternoon will be capable of producing dry microbursts with localized and erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt. Saturday night, low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions look to become widespread east of the central mountain chain, where thunderstorms will probably also linger. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Marginal critical fire weather conditions will continue over western NM thru Saturday while eastern NM sees greater chances for showers and storms with wetting rainfall. A mixture of wet/dry showers and storms is possible for the northern mts Saturday. Slightly better moisture trending into this area may allow for some small wetting footprints rather than the dry storms previously expected. However, activity along the western periphery within the Jemez and San Juan/ Tusas range may be drier. An extended period of critical to locally extreme fire weather is expected to begin Sunday as an upper level trough progresses slowly east across the southern Rockies. The strongest winds are focused on Sunday with gusts of 45 to 55 mph with single digit humidity and high Haines. A cold front moving thru Sunday night and Monday may bring some brief relief to far northwest NM however the rest of the area will stay windy with single digit humidity. More critical fire weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday before a potential pattern change toward lighter winds and higher humidity arrives for parts of the area Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 37 78 42 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 70 31 74 34 / 0 0 30 5 Cuba............................ 72 36 71 38 / 0 0 20 5 Gallup.......................... 73 34 75 36 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 67 38 71 39 / 0 0 10 0 Grants.......................... 72 31 74 34 / 0 0 10 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 46 74 47 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 72 41 71 42 / 0 0 5 0 Reserve......................... 76 32 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 30 67 33 / 0 0 40 20 Los Alamos...................... 71 45 67 46 / 0 0 30 10 Pecos........................... 75 40 66 41 / 10 0 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 36 64 39 / 5 0 40 20 Red River....................... 64 29 60 32 / 10 0 50 30 Angel Fire...................... 65 24 60 28 / 10 0 40 30 Taos............................ 73 31 71 35 / 5 0 30 20 Mora............................ 69 34 63 36 / 10 0 30 30 Espanola........................ 78 43 77 45 / 0 0 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 71 45 70 46 / 5 0 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 42 73 44 / 0 0 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 48 75 50 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 79 49 77 52 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 49 79 49 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 47 78 48 / 0 0 10 5 Belen........................... 83 46 81 46 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 79 46 79 48 / 0 0 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 81 44 80 45 / 0 0 10 5 Corrales........................ 80 45 79 47 / 0 0 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 81 43 80 44 / 0 0 10 5 Placitas........................ 77 48 73 48 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 79 48 78 49 / 0 0 10 5 Socorro......................... 86 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 46 67 46 / 0 0 20 10 Tijeras......................... 75 43 70 44 / 0 0 20 10 Edgewood........................ 73 43 70 44 / 0 0 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 36 71 39 / 5 0 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 73 39 64 40 / 10 0 10 20 Mountainair..................... 75 43 70 44 / 0 0 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 75 41 72 42 / 0 0 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 79 49 79 49 / 0 0 5 10 Ruidoso......................... 75 46 71 46 / 0 0 10 20 Capulin......................... 71 38 60 40 / 30 10 10 20 Raton........................... 77 37 67 39 / 20 5 20 20 Springer........................ 79 39 67 41 / 20 0 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 75 38 64 40 / 10 0 20 30 Clayton......................... 73 41 63 44 / 30 30 5 30 Roy............................. 78 44 65 45 / 20 10 10 40 Conchas......................... 86 51 71 51 / 20 10 10 60 Santa Rosa...................... 84 49 68 49 / 20 5 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 85 49 68 49 / 20 20 20 60 Clovis.......................... 89 51 70 51 / 20 10 30 60 Portales........................ 89 52 72 52 / 20 5 40 60 Fort Sumner..................... 86 49 73 50 / 20 10 20 50 Roswell......................... 94 55 80 55 / 5 0 20 40 Picacho......................... 84 48 75 49 / 5 0 10 20 Elk............................. 80 46 79 47 / 0 0 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105- 106-109-120>122-124. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ123. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44 ####018006542#### FXUS66 KOTX 040605 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1105 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures on Saturday will be mild with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Bands of rain will spread into central Washington on Saturday. Widespread rain is expected on Sunday as a slow moving low moves through the Pacific Northwest. As the low pulls out of the region, look for cool, showery, and windy conditions Monday and Tuesday. Warmer and drier weather will likely arrive late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Saturday: Clouds will be on the increase tonight into Saturday as a slow moving low off the coast of Washington this afternoon pushes into Oregon and northern California on Saturday. Rain will be slow to spread east of the Cascades. Chances for measurable rain will be less than 50 percent east of Omak, Waterville and Moses Lake until late Saturday evening. Even though Saturday will be mostly cloudy, temperatures will be mild. Morning lows will range from the 40s in north Idaho and northeast Washington to the low 50s in Moses Lake and Wenatchee. Highs are expected to be in the 60s Saturday for the majority of the Inland Northwest. Sunday: There is decent model agreement that the most significant precipitation with this slow moving low will occur south of Washington and Idaho Saturday and Sunday with a foot or more of snow for the high elevations of the Oregon Cascades and mountains of northern California. However, this storm should deliver some much needed rainfall to eastern Washington and north Idaho. Models often struggle with wrap around precipitation, and we have seen some variability in the ensembles the last few days with the timing and location of the deformation band wrapping into the Inland Northwest. The latest National Blend of Models (NBM) generates the most significant band of rain Sunday and Sunday night across the eastern third of Washington and over the north Idaho Panhandle. The NBM deterministic output (most likely scenario) has a swath of a quarter to half inch centered along the WA/ID state line Sunday and Sunday night. The NBM 75th percentile increases these amounts to localized amounts of two-thirds of an inch while the 25th percentile knocks amounts in the rain band down to a tenth to quarter of an inch. Rains across the Palouse and West Plains will be welcomely received by dryland farmers after a dry April. However, outdoor activities on Sunday will be dampened by the rain and much below average temperatures. Places that experience an all-day rain may struggle to get out of the 40s Sunday afternoon including Spokane, Pullman, and the Idaho Panhandle. Places like Omak and the Methow Valley may remain north of the main rain band and have a good chance of topping out in the 60s. Monday and Tuesday: The beginning of the work week will be cooler than average, showery, and locally windy. As our deep weekend low migrates eastward, a tight westerly pressure gradient will set up across the Cascades on Monday. Then on Tuesday, a fast moving shortwave descending from the Gulf of Alaska will dig into the Pacific Northwest delivering another round of gusty west winds. Guidance form the ECMWF ensembles suggest that wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be a good bet Monday with 70 percent of members generating gusts of 35 mph or higher across the open country of southeast and east central Washington on Monday and 50 percent of members on Tuesday. Showers will be more widespread Monday with a 60 to 80 percent chance of measurable precipitation over the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern third of Washington. Shower chances should decrease on Tuesday as drier air accompanies the Gulf of Alaska system, however snow levels will drop unseasonably low Tuesday...as low as 3000 feet in the morning and again overnight into Wednesday morning. If you haven't gotten your fill of graupel this spring, Tuesday will give you another shot at seeing our "corn snow", "snow pellets", or (insert your favorite graupel name). Wednesday and Thursday: The medium range models are trending toward a more amplified ridge/trough pattern over North America by mid to late week. While there are some differences in where the ridge axis will set up by Thursday and Friday of next week, the majority of the ensemble members are forecasting above average temperatures and dry weather Thursday and Friday. The NBM advertises highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s Thursday and widespread 70s for Friday. /GKoch && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Mid to high level clouds are spreading across the region. Light rain is expected across the Cascades by the morning hours on Saturday with rain at KEAT by 14-16Z with ceilings as low as 3 kft. South and easterly winds will pick up with the front approaching. KPUW-KGEG-KCOE will see the potential for gusts up to 25 kts into Saturday morning with the easterly pressure gradient tightening up. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through Saturday evening except for at KEAT where confidence is moderate. The HREF/NBM model guidance for KEAT indicates a 60% chance ceilings lower down to 3 kft. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 45 69 42 49 40 56 / 0 10 40 90 80 40 Coeur d'Alene 42 68 42 49 39 52 / 0 10 30 90 90 60 Pullman 46 65 39 45 38 52 / 0 10 80 100 80 60 Lewiston 47 73 46 54 44 59 / 0 10 90 100 80 60 Colville 40 68 42 57 38 60 / 10 20 20 90 80 70 Sandpoint 42 66 44 51 39 52 / 0 10 30 90 90 80 Kellogg 43 65 44 48 40 47 / 0 10 40 100 90 80 Moses Lake 53 71 44 58 42 63 / 10 40 60 80 30 10 Wenatchee 52 62 49 60 44 60 / 10 70 40 30 20 20 Omak 49 69 49 64 42 65 / 10 40 30 40 40 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$ ####018009701#### FXUS61 KCLE 040609 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 209 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern continues as a cold front moves east across the area tonight. Another warm front will lift north on Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday as the parent low moves northeast into Quebec. High pressure will push in briefly Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 PM Update Continued to downtrend pops this evening as shower activity diminishes across the area. Kept pops in the chance or lower range with a downtrend from west to east through the overnight. With diurnal stabilization and recent radar trends, opted to remove thunder mention from the forecast for the rest of the night. An isolated rumble isn't out of the question but probabilities are too low for forecast mention at this point. Main forecast challenge overnight will be low end fog potential across the area. Expecting extensive mid/high cloud cover so despite moist boundary layer and lighter winds, radiational cooling should be inadequate for widespread fog development. Some patches cannot be ruled out, especially where rainfall persisted this evening, but again, not confident enough for explicit forecast mention at this time. Original discussion...An active weather pattern will continue through the near term period as multiple boundaries enhanced by upper level shortwaves move across the area. Setting up the big picture, there is a broad upper level trough across the northern contiguous US with an associated low pressure at the surface centered over the north-central US. A cold front associated with this system will move east across the area tonight, bringing another chance of precipitation. Much of the support for shower development is coming from upper level embedded shortwaves which are advecting vorticity across the area. This support coupled with an area of low level convergence should allow for more widespread showers to become established along and east of I71 this evening into the overnight hours. Overall mesoscale conditions, including instability and shear, remain very minimal this afternoon so getting any thunder may be hard but cannot rule out a few rumbles. Primary concern would be heavy rainfall in the strongest showers which may result in nuisance flooding. By Saturday morning, a nose of high pressure pushes over the area and allows for a very brief, although cloudy, period of no precipitation. By Saturday afternoon, another warm front will move north across the area, allowing the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to return. These should gradually begin to taper from west to east early Sunday as another cold front approaches, but maintained slight chance for this period. Highs tomorrow will reach into the 70s across western counties, but will remain in the 60s for far NE OH and NW PA. Overnight lows both nights will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will likely be approaching Toledo early Sunday and will slowly cross the area from west to east by Sunday evening. A slug of deeper moisture and associated showers may still be impacting far eastern OH into northwestern PA early Sunday, though farther west should start the day fairly dry. Additional showers & thunder are expected to develop along the cold front by late morning or early afternoon is it drifts east out of northwestern Ohio and into north central Ohio and then continue east through the afternoon and early evening. Overall, Sunday will feature more clouds than sun with showers and thunder around at times, though a washout type steady rain is unlikely. Not seeing much of a severe weather threat on Sunday, as forcing and shear will be weak. Thermodynamics may support a few stronger storms east/southeast of a Mount Gilead - Parma - Chardon - Edinboro line during the later afternoon hours, with small to perhaps near-severe hail and locally strong winds the main concern if any storms briefly pulse stronger before collapsing due to the lack of stronger shear. Storm motion won't be all that fast so can't rule out a gully-washer or two, though am not expecting enough organization for much of a flooding threat either. High pressure briefly noses in from the north Sunday night into Monday behind the cold front, which should allow us to dry out. As the front begins returning as a warm front late Monday into Monday night rain chances may begin returning from the southwest. Gut feeling is that Monday and Monday night may end up drier than currently forecasted, though given enough model spread and a need to be collaborated, only made modest reductions to the NBM POPs. Highs on Sunday will hinge on how long we can break into some sunshine behind showers exiting to the east in the morning and activity developing and spreading across the area along the cold front during the midday and afternoon timeframe. For now, generally have most of the area in the 70s. Highs generally range from the mid 60s along the lake to the low to mid 70s well-inland on Monday. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will generally settle into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term will begin with a trough over the northern Plains and a ridge centered over the Southeast, with broad southwest flow in between. The trough will begin shifting towards the Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday. A warm front is expected to lift through on Tuesday, with a cold front expected to cross Thursday into Friday. There will be relatively higher chances for showers and thunder both with the warm frontal passage Tuesday into Tuesday evening, and again Thursday into Friday as the cold approaches and crosses. While we'll be in the open warm sector on Wednesday, activity may develop upstream and spread in later in the day or at night. Severe weather and flooding potential are uncertain, as we will be on the fringes of a moist and unstable with enough flow aloft for organized convection. However, many solutions develop organized clusters of convection well upstream across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys most days, which would tend to track just to our south and also act to overturn the greater instability before it can advect in. We are not currently "outlooked" for severe weather by the SPC which seems reasonable given the uncertainty and potential limiting factors mentioned above, though experimental machine learning severe weather guidance from Colorado State University does suggest severe potential may bleed into our area (with greater risk just to our southwest) if upstream convection is not too expansive. Temperatures will lean warmer than normal until the cold front crosses. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... A few pockets of light showers are ongoing at the start of the period. Nearly anywhere could get a light shower overnight but coverage will be limited and most won't. Only included a tempo for a light shower at MFD which seemed most likely over the next couple hours. Otherwise ceilings are VFR but expect to see some MVFR cloud fill in through the overnight period. On Saturday there is a little better forcing to see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms develop across Central Ohio and spread north through the afternoon. Coverage will be focused more towards Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the evening. Tried to time some tempos in for showers where appropriate. Did not include thunderstorms at this time but a few thunderstorms will be possible and may need to add as confidence increases. Otherwise ceilings will tend to be MVFR for much of the day with reduced visibilities in showers and IFR possible in thunderstorms. Ceilings are expected to lower on Saturday night as a slow moving trough approaches from the west. Winds will tend to be 10 knots or less through the period. Light and variable winds through 14Z will become south to southeasterly for most inland terminals. Lakeshore areas will hold onto an east or northeast wind for longer, but also eventually expected to shift around to the south/southeast. Erie is the one site that may see gusts to around 20-25 knots tomorrow afternoon/evening. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are expected for the foreseeable future. Southeast winds may briefly become gusty in the nearshore waters off of Pennsylvania late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, though sustained winds likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A cold front will cross on Sunday. A warm front lifts across the lake Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by a cold front next Thursday or Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible over the lake Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, though greater potential will likely be inland. Additional thunderstorms are possible at times over the lake Tuesday through Friday next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/Greenawalt SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Sullivan