####018003039#### FXUS64 KOHX 040611 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 111 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Convection is ongoing across Middle Tennessee, with the heaviest activity occurring south of I-40. A weak shortwave will drift across the mid state overnight, and this will give us at least a temporary lessening of the active weather. Our rain chances on Saturday will be lower as a result. Still, some pop-up cells can be expected later today. But since there is no real forcing mechanism in place, we've eschewed the NBM POPs (too high!) and instead used the CONSShort POPs for the first 36 hours of the forecast. There is still plenty of instability and moisture in place, so there's no reason to think that the shortwave passage is going to bring the active weather pattern to a complete halt. It's just that coverage and QPF values are going to be much lower in the near-term than what we experienced Friday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Looking ahead, the active weather pattern will continue unabated for the greater portion of this week following a series of shortwaves and surface boundaries. It appears that we'll get a clean fropa maybe by the end of this week or early in the weekend, and this may bring us a few days of rain-free weather and somewhat cooler temperatures. Cumulative QPF totals from today through next Friday evening are generally running 2-4" across the region. Outside of localized flooding resulting from pockets of high rainfall rates, the potential for widespread flooding is minimal since those rainfall totals are going to spread across several days. And the risk of severe storms throughout the next 7 days remains very low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 While some scattered showers and storms will be around throughout the TAF cycle, flight categories should be pretty decent. Biggest exception will be CKV, where LIFR to VLIFR vis drops are becoming more likely 10-13Z. Otherwise, brief MVFR cats with any heavier rains. Winds will be light and southwesterly for this cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 82 65 86 66 / 70 50 60 70 Clarksville 80 63 83 64 / 50 40 60 70 Crossville 74 60 79 61 / 80 50 60 60 Columbia 80 63 85 64 / 70 50 60 70 Cookeville 76 62 81 64 / 80 50 50 60 Jamestown 76 60 81 61 / 80 50 60 60 Lawrenceburg 79 63 84 64 / 70 50 60 70 Murfreesboro 79 63 86 64 / 70 50 50 60 Waverly 80 63 84 64 / 50 50 60 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger ####018004863#### FXUS62 KCAE 040614 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 214 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing moisture and shortwave energy will lead to active weather for the weekend through early next week with showers and thunderstorms likely. For the remainder of next week, expect well above normal temperatures and at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak shortwave trough is moving through the Southeast this morning leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms. A second, stronger, shortwave will move into the forecast area this afternoon. With atmospheric moisture well above normal values, we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop leading to widespread rain during the afternoon. Weak, deep layer shear points to pulse type convection and makes organized thunderstorms unlikely. Mean sbCAPE values from the HREF are around 1000 J/kg, consistent to SREF values from the previous day's forecast. This points to enough instability for scattered thunderstorms but potentially too little for much of a severe threat, particularly considering the lack of dry air available for evaporational cooling. The biggest threat will be localized heavy rain if it occurs in urban or other flood prone areas. Daytime heating will be hampered by overcast or mostly cloudy skies and rainfall. This will keeps afternoon temps in the 70s to low 80s. Expect convective activity to diminish in the late evening as the shortwave energy lifts out of the forecast area. Temperatures will be mild overnight with lows in the 60s. Abundant low-level moisture should lead to fog or low stratus over the region early Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The axis of an upper trough is expected to continue sliding eastward, putting us in a southwest flow aloft regime for the next couple of days. A series of embedded shortwaves are forecast to move over the region. At the surface, high pressure off the coast remains generally in place, allowing for southeast surface winds across the forecast area. As a result of this combination, PWATs are expected to increase to 1.6-1.7 inches, which is near the climatological top of moisture for this time of year. With this amount of moisture available, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to spread across the area Sunday, with peak coverage in the afternoon. With a lack of low level forcing mechanism, most of the activity is likely to be driven by the passing shortwaves. With the ridging aloft, instability and shear are limited, especially shear. Therefore, severe thunderstorms are not really expected. With the widespread cloud cover and scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, daytime temperatures are forecast to be closer to average for this time of year compared to the past couple of days. The increased moisture is expected to keep temperatures several degrees above average each night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A persistent pattern of broad ridging, with passing shortwaves over the Southeast is expected to bring a continued summer-like pattern to the region. This should lead to nearly daily shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek, but coverage is anticipated to steadily decline after Monday. Temperatures are also expected to gradually increase due to the stagnant pattern aloft, with highs mid to late week in the lower to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions or thunderstorms likely for much of the TAF period. Abundant atmospheric moisture will lead to low stratus and/or reduced visibilities this morning, and promote numerous showers and thunderstorms today. Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings for portions of the morning with rainfall chances, and associated restrictions, becoming increasingly likely after 15Z. Periods of reduced visibility from rainfall and thunderstorms should be expected at all TAF sites today. However confidence in the exact timing for each site is too low for TS to be included in the TAFs at the moment. Expect convective activity to diminish in the late evening. However low level moisture will remain high which should lead to stratus and fog development again, with restrictions potentially extending to the end of the 24 hr TAF forecast. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Fog or stratus possible through at least Monday with abundant low level moisture in place. Convection also likely for Sunday and Monday with restrictions and thunderstorms possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$