####018005563#### FXUS61 KRNK 040642 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 242 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure move across the Mid- Atlantic Region this weekend resulting in Mostly cloudy skies, widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, ranging from a quarter of an inch, to as much as one inch. Temperatures will be lower today compared to Friday, winds from an easterly direction. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Cool easterly wind today. Below normal high temperatures. 2. Widespread light to moderate showers through tonight with potential for 0.25 to 1.00 of rain. Slight chance thunderstorms. Cloudy skies observed across the entire forecast area this morning along with patchy light rain and rain showers. This will generally be the theme through tonight as lift associated with an upper level trough persists across the region. Daytime heating may provide enough CAPE to produce a few thunderstorms, but not expecting anything severe per cool easterly wind flow within the boundary layer. Models are hit and miss on the heavier QPF, advertising a large deviation in rainfall amounts, the SREF Plumes for many of our climate stations ranging from a quarter of an inch to as much as 1.5 inches through 8AM Sunday. The spread in the model data reflects the showery nature of the precip, but do think we partake in at least a quarter inch of much needed rain over the next 24 hours. Anything above that is a bonus. Wind flow today and tonight will be out of the east. This combined with mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures muted today, down 15 degrees compared to Friday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. 2) Temperatures will slowly warm as the new week begins. The easterly flow should shift around to the south during Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic throughout this forecast period. A cold front will try to move eastward north of the Appalachian Mountains on Monday, but the primary area of low pressure should stay well to the north in Canada. As a result, this cold front will be unsuccessful in changing the air mass and may only nudge the stalled frontal boundary slightly southward. Because of this prolonged period of unsettled weather, chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur each day. The highest chance may come during Monday afternoon when the cold front to the north provides extra dynamical lift in the vicinity of the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures should slowly trend upward as the flow becomes more southerly to increase warm air advection despite the ongoing chances of rain and the considerable cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. 2) Temperatures will head warmer by the middle of the week. A stalled frontal boundary should still linger across the Mid Atlantic through the middle of the week. Several weak waves of low pressure will continue to track eastward along this boundary to continue a daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, ridging aloft and a southwest flow at the surface should increase warm air advection to push temperatures higher by Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will approach the Appalachian Mountains sometime during late Thursday into Friday, which could spark a higher chance of convection. The models continue to struggle with depicting when this prolonged period of unsettled weather will come to an end beyond this point. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Cloud bases are lowering from the east. A cool easterly wind off the Atlantic Ocean will bring marine air as far west as the Blue Ridge resulting in a low IFR Cig today along with some partial ridge obscurations. Patchy light rain this morning will become more showery in nature during the day with light to moderate showers becoming widespread for the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm threat appears too low to include in the TAFs attm but do think some of the more robust convective cells will contain lightning. The easterly wind over the area is shallow, observed from the surface up to about 3000 feet AGL. Above 3000 feet winds are out of the southwest...the winds above 3Kft providing the steering current for any deep convection...storm cell movement from SW- NE. Extended Aviation Outlook... SHRA/TSRA with periods of DZ, BR, and MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions continue after 18Z Sunday. More diurnally driven -SHRA/TSRA are expected Monday through Wednesday. This will bring periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be SSW and gusty at times. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...PM ####018005795#### FXUS62 KJAX 040643 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 243 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 301... .NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight... Fog development this morning will be fairly sparse and generally shallow, as elevated southerly flow maintains a somewhat mixed boundary layer. Otherwise, a few showers continue to stream across inland southeast GA early this AM as upper level diffluence enhances downstream from an approaching shortwave just to the west. As that shortwave makes its way slowly eastward, the associated cooling aloft and moistening mid levels will offer a sufficient amount of diurnal instability this afternoon. With those ingredients in play along with the sea breezes, scattered to numerous showers are expected to develop during the mid and late afternoon hours, mainly across interior SE GA and inland NE FL west of Highway 301. Steep low level lapse rates will allow potentially strong outflow winds in the vicinity of pulsing storms. Outflow and sea breeze interaction may lead to a few strong storms this afternoon and evening. Given a fairly weak westerly steering flow, motion of storms today will be outflow driven with a tendency to slowly drift back toward the east coast as they weaken. In addition to a few strong gusts with the more robust convection, PWATs pushing toward the 90th percentile according to sounding climo will allow for localized heavy rain (which will be beneficial given the ongoing dry spell). Convective debris clouds will drift eastward tonight as convection wanes with mostly quiet conditions through the overnight hours. There will be another chance for at least patchy inland fog, particularly in locations that receive a decent amount of rain. Temps today will be modulated by cloud cover and the onshore flow which should keep most of SE GA and coastal NE FL high temp readings in the low/mid 80s while the rest of NE FL warms into the upper 80s to near 90 this afternoon. Another mild night will follow the warm afternoon with lows in the mid/upper 60s except at the coast where onshore flow will keep lows from falling below 70F. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night) Pattern of diurnal convection will continue through Sunday and Monday as a series of mid level short waves pass over the region. Shower and storm developments are expected to be largely scattered with developments becoming more numerous along the diurnal sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. High temperatures for this period will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Predominantly dry weather through the rest of the week as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern. Sea breeze winds will be largely pinned to the coast by midweek as prevailing flow shifts to become more out of the southwest due to the positioning of the high pressure axis. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s as the week progresses with temps potentially reaching record seasonal levels by the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conds continue with shallow, localized mist/fog developing through the remaining predawn hours at inland airfields (KGNV & KVQQ). Amid a more unstable airmass, sea breeze interaction and a passing disturbance will lead to scattered thunderstorms mainly along and east of Highway 301 during the late afternoon (after 20z). Convective impacts are most likely at KGNV; however, outflow may impact terminals with vicinity showers/storms. As storms weaken this evening, the remnant showers will drift eastward and possibly pass across coastal terminals in NE FL toward the end of the current TAF period. Outside of outflow influence, predominant winds will be east to east-southeasterly around 7-12 knots then trending lighter after 00z. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly direction early this week. Winds should trend offshore toward the end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for... Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962 Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962 Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962 Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 65 88 66 / 60 70 50 20 SSI 80 71 82 69 / 20 10 40 20 JAX 85 69 87 66 / 20 20 40 10 SGJ 84 71 85 68 / 10 10 40 10 GNV 88 67 88 65 / 60 60 60 10 OCF 90 67 89 66 / 50 50 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$