####018005828#### FXUS61 KRLX 040718 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 318 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will continue to traverse the area early this morning, then activity is expected to continue throughout the day as a shortwave passes over the area. Coverage of showers and storms should peak during the afternoon and evening hours when instability will be the greatest. While storm activity may lessen again overnight, chances for showers are expected to linger through the end of the near term period. Precipitation amounts for today and tonight should be under an inch for much of the area, though pockets of higher amounts will be possible due to locally heavy rain in showers and storms today. Widespread flooding is not expected; however, some localized issues aren't out of the question in poor drainage areas or if higher amounts fall over locations that experienced heavy rain yesterday. Between cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures are expected to max out in the 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to low 70s along the mountains. Lows for tonight should then be in the 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1128 AM Friday... More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1129 AM Friday... The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes. Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Saturday... Isolated to scattered showers continue to move across the area, bringing periodic restrictions to visibility early this morning. Additional CIG/VIS restrictions will be possible in low stratus and some areas of fog developing this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread to most locations during the day as a passing disturbance brings more showers and storms across the area. A temporary improvement could occur this afternoon, then ceilings should lower again beyond 00Z. Visibilities will also continue to be impaired today into tonight during any heavier showers or storms. Calm to light and variable flow will persist through the early morning. Flow becomes southerly to southeasterly during the day, with light sustained winds and 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary from the forecast this morning. Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/04/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JLB ####018004869#### FXUS61 KCAR 040719 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area today and tonight. An occluded front will approach on Sunday and cross the area Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will approach on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... We will remain in a narrow corridor of high pressure, both surface and aloft today, between a low well to our southeast and an occluded front approaching from the west. An initial band of moisture pushing out ahead of the front will slide into our region during the day today. However, moisture from this band will thin out as it pushes over the ridge and collapses under subsidence from the ridging. The effect for our weather will be clouds moving in today, then thinning for breaks of sunshine later this afternoon as upper level moisture dissipates. High pressure surface and aloft will be over the area tonight bringing a partly cloudy night. Some patchy low stratus may form again late tonight with some isolated areas of fog possible over the central or southern valleys. Otherwise, tonight will be dry and tranquil. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Models are in pretty good agreement for this ptn of the fcst. Sun will begin ptly sunny, then become cldy and breezy in the Aftn as a s/wv an weakening warm occluded frontal zone begins to apch from the W. Shwrs and rn from this system will msly occur ovr the Rgn durg Sun Ngt with most areas receiving 0.10 to 0.20 inches, warranting max PoPs in the ovrngt hrs now in the categorical range. Most rn/shwr activity ovr our FA will move E of the FA by late Mon Morn. The tmg of a of a fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay now appears to be after 00z Tue, likely to late for after diurnal max htg for any sig additional shwrs and isold tstms. The warmest air in the llvls will arrive durg by Mon Aftn allowing temps to get well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Any isold to wdly sct shwrs will move E of the FA behind a secondary cold front by late Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and cooler, with some llvl cold advcn SC cld cvr likely ovr Nrn/Ern areas late Tue Morn into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt looks to be fair with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with good radiational cooling. Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system apchs from the Midwest. Shwrs from this system are potentially could impact our FA Wed Ngt, but longer range models are not in good agreement on tmg or rnfl totals durg this tm frame, and on whether followup s/wvs will cont to bring additional shwrs from Thu Aftn thru Fri. The result is a long mention of chc shwrs into the late week with low confidence as to what day/ngt pd will actually receive appreciable rnfl. Subsequently max PoPs were kept in the high chc range. Longer range models are in a little more agreement on possible more sig rnfl toward the weekend, currently just beyond this fcst domain. Temps will be msly near to slightly abv normal for Wed thru Fri. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings this morning should improve to VFR by midday. VFR conditions are expected tonight, possibly lowering to MVFR again late tonight. Winds light east to northeast today becoming light southeast tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun...all TAF sites VFR with mdt S winds. Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with Shwrs and rn. Mdt S winds. Mon...all TAF sites MVFR clgs becmg low VFR clgs by Aftn. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in shwrs. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg W late in the day. Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds. Tue Ngt - Wed...all TAF sites VFR, lowering low VFR clgs by late Wed Aftn with lgt shwrs. Lgt winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will be light today. Seas will be around 1 to 2 ft today, dropping to around 1 ft tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm ovr these ptns of the fcst. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 4 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Bloomer/VJN Marine...Bloomer/VJN