####018004993#### FXUS63 KDVN 040724 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 224 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week. - The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms on today for portions of the area. - A potent dynamic system arriving Monday night to Tuesday could bring a more significant severe threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A large MCS is poised to enter western Iowa early this morning, and is rapidly moving east/northeast. This has been severe in Nebraska, but will be quickly moving out of the marginally unstable air and should become predominantly stratiform rain in the next 4 hours prior to sunrise as it moves through Iowa and southern Minnesota. For us, skies will become high overcast before sunrise, and winds will continue to increase from the south/southeast. Some showers may near our northwest prior to 12Z, but this looks to hold off until then, and move into our northwestern 1/3 of the CWA before 10 AM. While in a dissipating stage, some thunder is possible, and will keep it's mention in grids. During the late morning to early afternoon, coverage of rain in Iowa will wane, allowing some decent heating to occur in the east 1/2 of the CWA. the NBM supports highs in the upper 70s to around 80 today along and east of the Mississippi River, with dew point temperatures rising to the low 60s just ahead of the front. Modest CAPE of 500 to 1200 is forecast by most CAMs this afternoon in our east 1/2. The surface cold front should reinitiate convection near the Mississippi River. NBM pops came in today ~90% with the fropa, but with about 1/2 of the CAMs failing to convect today, I'm inclined to limit pops to 80% in the narrow fropa timing this afternoon. Anyhow, SPC is maintaining the Marginal Lvl 1 risk for mainly wind and hail. This is a low risk, but will be highest with the storms that form along the front this afternoon. By early evening, storms will have exited the area to the east, with rapid clearing and a chilly night in the upper 30s to mid 40s in store. Sunday, with cool air in place, a pleasant spring day is forecast, with some diurnal cumulus dotting the sky as well. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A broad, energetic pattern is set to begin spreading WAA rain and thunder into the area as soon as Monday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Monday night into Tuesday. This Monday night into Tuesday period continues to be shown as a large/synoptic, strongly forced system, and there's been a consistent signal for a very strong jet streak within the Midwest. Those broad scale factors continue to give an indication that this may be a widespread severe weather producer, and our CWA may be included in that. We will begin messaging this chance today in the HWO. A warm and breezy pattern is in store on the east side of this broad potent trof next week. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s are expected through Wednesday. Following that, the upper trof is set to deepen, and place the warm air well south of the upper Midwest, resulting a cooler, cloudier forecast in the 60s to lower 70s to end the week. This could bring additional showers and possibly thunder to the region as well, given the cold air aloft and time of year over moist soil. The QPF in this period should not be overly heavy, given no connection to the Gulf of Mexico, but spotty rains over 0.50 appear possible in the frequent shower chances to end the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A locally quiet and clear night of VFR weather will see an approaching area of showers and thunderstorms moving east through western Iowa tonight. These will be in a dissipating stage as they enter eastern Iowa this morning, which is now included as a temporary condition at CID and DBQ. Increasing south winds will bring moisture into the area, but looking upstream, MVFR cigs are not found outside of rainfall, as dewpoints remain low until the convergence of the front arrive. Thus, I've cut back on the MVFR cigs through the day, and focused more on the two periods of rain/thunder potential, one in the morning west, and the other in the mid to late afternoon along and east of the Mississippi River. Some of the afternoon storms could offer a strong wind gust, and brief IFR conditions. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin ####018007711#### FXUS61 KPHI 040725 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 325 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the next few days. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west through the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The base of high pressure centered over New England extends down into the Mid-Atlantic. An old warm front lies over the Appalachians, and a cold front is moving through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. High pressure slowly lifts to the north and east throughout the day today and into tonight. Several shortwaves will approach from the west, pushing those frontal boundaries towards the local forecast area. The first shortwave is moving through Maryland, and showers with isolated thunderstorms will move into the eastern shores of Maryland early this morning. Some brief downpours and a few rumbles of thunder can be expected. Those showers will taper off after sunrise as they run into the base of the high. Elsewhere, some marine stratus will move into portions of New Jersey and southern Delaware. That stratus will dissipate later this morning, but skies remain cloudy through the day as showers continue to develop well west of the region. Those showers will slowly track east, not making it into the far western portions of the forecast area until late in the afternoon and early evening. A cool day with highs in the 50s to low 60s, which will be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Best chances for showers will be during the overnight period tonight, mainly for inland areas as those frontal boundaries wash out as they approach. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front approaches from the west on Sunday. With a slower approach, showers will mainly be north and west of the Philly metro through the morning, before pushing over the rest of the area through the afternoon and evening. The marine airmass in place will keep things stable, and really not expecting much in terms of thunder or heavy rainfall Sunday/Sunday night. Rainfall amounts will generally be around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain, spread out over a rather large period, so not expecting much in terms of hydro concerns. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s, though some spots in the Delmarva will get into the upper 60s/low 70s. Temperatures won't drop much on Sunday Night, likely staying in the 50s. For Monday, temperatures moderate as a weak west/southwesterly flow takes over. The first of several shortwaves next week is expected to traverse the area, with some showers and thunderstorms potentially developing in the afternoon and evening. Some of the model soundings show decent instability with marginal shear, so can't rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm late Monday. However, not expecting the threat to be widespread at all. Will continue to monitor as we get in range of CAM guidance. Best chance to see any convection will be over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s/low 80s on Monday with mid to upper 50s/low 60s on Monday Night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled conditions are expected for most of the week as a rather progressive pattern will be in place. Several shortwaves are expected to pass over the region. Lift will also be aided by a stalled boundary bisecting the area that will meander for the middle and end of next week. The front looks to venture northward on Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in a period of above normal temperatures with upper 70s/low 80s expected. With a relatively warm and moist airmass in place, incoming shortwaves could potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday PM. Wednesday afternoon/evening looks to be the most active in terms of convective weather, though too early to see if severe weather is on the table. The stalled boundary retreats southward towards the end of the week with onshore flow likely taking over, at least along the coastal plain. Depending on where this stalled boundary sets up will have implicatons on temperatures and thunderstorm potential on Thursday/Friday. Areas near and east of the front will be under the influence of the marine layer with cooler and more stable air, while areas west of the boundary are more unstable with warmer temperatures. A deepening trough will begin to move into the Mid- Atlantic, with a series of shortwaves/frontal systems moving through both Thursday/Friday. Both days will feature temperatures near/below normal, depending on where this lingering boundary sets up. Important to note that there remains a lot of uncertainty with the long-term forecast as models tend to struggle with a progressive pattern like this, and the placement of this boundary that will hang around through next week. As mentioned before, where that boundary sets up will have large implications on the forecast. We look to potentially shake this unsettled pattern once a sweeping cold front comes through late next week/early next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...MVFR and IFR CIGs at KMIV/KACY this morning, eventually lifting to VFR by this afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR, giving way to MVFR CIGs from west to east starting at KRDG/KABE around midday, then MVFR CIGs will spread towards KACY prior to 00Z. SHRA arrive at KRDG/KABE prior to 00Z as well. E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...IFR conditions in stratus/BR/SHRA tonight. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Sunday through Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings. Reduced visibility likely with showers. Monday through Monday Night...Conditions gradually improve as the day goes on, likely back to VFR, though some showers/thunderstorms develop for the afternoon/evening, with restrictions possible if any storms move over the terminals. Tuesday through Tuesday Night...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with 20-40% chance of SHRA. Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible (30-50%) with scattered showers/thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap today and tonight with E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and 3 to 4 ft seas. There is the potential for localized marine dense fog early this morning for areas south of Little Egg Inlet. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Some showers may result in VSBY restrictions tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No long-fused marine headlines anticipated, though periods of showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS ####018007786#### FXUS62 KRAH 040725 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 320 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will move through the area through Sunday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will stall across the area through tonight, before lifting north into Virginia early Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Saturday... A quasi-stationary surface front will meander across the northern third of the forecast area through the evening, before lifting north into VA tonight/early Sunday. While weak, subtle disturbances are currently moving through the area, a more prominent shortwave trough/vort cluster, currently over AL, will progress NEWD across central NC during the late afternoon and into tonight. The accompanying moisture feed will propel precipitable water values towards daily maximum values of 1.5-1.7" inches, highest across the NC Piedmont counties. As disturbances begin to interact with the the stalled frontal zone, models indicate a weak sfc wave will develop and will likely enhance lift and precip across the area. Intermittent showers will spread SW to NE across the area throughout the day and into the evening and overnight hours, with the greatest coverage and frequency of rain expected along and west of US 1. It's entirely possible that that the eastern Sandhills and southern coastal plain counties could remain largely dry until the shortwave trough advances into eastern NC overnight/early Sunday. Widespread clouds and rain will significantly temper insolation with resultant weak buoyancy leading to some embedded thunder at times, especially as the primary MCV tracks through the area during the late afternoon and evening. Given equally weak shear, no severe storms are expected. Rainfall amounts through tonight will range from 0.75-1.0" in the NW Piedmont, to 0.25-0.50" across the Triangle, to less than a tenth of an inch across the southern coastal plain. Highs will greatly depend on both the location of the front and the spatial and temporal trends of rainfall through the afternoon. A shallow wedge of cooler air/ hybrid CAD is likely along and north of the front with a potential for low cloud ceilings/stratus to persist across the far northern/northwestern zones. Highs ranging from lower 70s NW(potentially cooler) to lower/mid 80s SE. Lows tonight 60-65. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Saturday... The quasi-stationary front sagging across northern portions of the forecast will retreat north early Sunday, leaving all of central NC in the warm sector. The increasingly sheared shortwave trough will exit east of the area during the early afternoon. Ongoing scattered convection Sunday morning within the continued anomalously moist PWATs should experience some re-newed vigor during the afternoon as weak diurnal buoyancy flares up. Continued weak shear will deter any severe potential. Rainfall amounts will be more equitable Sunday, with 0.2-0.3" expected area-wide. Under mostly cloud skies, highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s SE. Convection should largely dissipate as BL nocturnally cools and stabilizes. Mild overnight temps in the 60s with stratus likely to re-develop across the area as moisture remains high. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 AM Saturday... The extended forecast will feature a continued chance of unsettled weather to start the week Mon, followed by somewhat drier and hot temperatures by the middle of the week. A potent late-week system/trough looks to increase storm chances again by week's end. On Monday, models continue to show a shortwave over the TN valley tracking east across the region in the afternoon/evening, before exiting along the coast by Tue morning. A surface Piedmont trough will be in place and combined with 200-percent of normal PW's should favor another day of scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms, maximizing during peak heating. Instability is between 500- 1000 J/kg but shear is weak, so severe chances are not expected, though slow-moving storms could bring heavy rain. Activity should wane overnight with loss of heating and as the trough slides toward the coast. Highs should hover in the low/mid 80s with higher rain chances and cloud cover. As the trough moves to our east Tue, weak ridging starts to build in, although the CMC/GFS show a weak perturbation riding along the ridge. With a lack of large-scale forcing, confidence on coverage of storms, if any, is low, such that storm activity should be isolated/scattered in nature and focused along differential heating boundaries and/or the sea-breeze. Highs should warm to the low to upper 80s. A drier pattern still appears to be favored midweek Wed and part of Thu as ridging and southwest flow builds back into the region. This will also be when the airmass will warm quite a bit with a lee trough setting up east of the Appalachians and low-level thicknesses well above average and highs some 12-15 degrees above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. The NBM still indicates a 60-80 percent chance of 90 or greater maxT values across portions of the Sandhills, Triangle region, and Coastal Plain during this period. Heat index value could reach the mid 90s over these areas, making for an early taste of summer. While this period looks drier, most guidance shows a developing trough over the upper MS valley Thu, with solutions indicating a decent plume of moisture tied to a perturbation advecting ahead of a cold front draped over the OH valley. This would favor better chances of isolated/scattered storms Thu aftn/eve with higher instability coupled to higher shear. Although model solutions diverge by late in the week with a frontal system location, there is broad consensus that chances of storms appear to remain elevated to close out the week as the trough slides closer to the TN/OH valley and Great Lakes region with instability/shear still favorable over the Carolinas. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 AM Saturday... A back-door cold front, noted by a E-NELY wind shift, will settle south across the northern TAF sites over the next few hours before stalling. Moisture pooling along the front should lead to the development of IFR to MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites 08 to 12z. Ceilings at KFAY, KRDU, and KRWI should gradually lift to VFR from south to north through 17-18z, with scattered showers and storms possible during the afternoon and evening, especially at KRDU. At KGSO and KINT, ceilings could remain IFR to MVFR through the afternoon and evening as intermittent showers and storms develop and move through the area through much of the forecast period. Showers will linger across the area tonight, with the re-development of LIFR to MVFR conditions across the area, lowest at KINt and KGSO where the deepest moisture resides. -CBL Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings are likely to redevelop each night- morning through Monday, as are scattered to locally numerous showers/storms each afternoon-evening. -MWS && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/Green NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...CBL/MWS ####018005926#### FXUS61 KALY 040726 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 326 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the New England coast will provide continued dry conditions through today. The high will remain nearly stationary through this evening, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west tonight. Clouds will gradually increase and thicken, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Showers will become widespread by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. Dry and warmer conditions are expected on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Other than a few light showers or sprinkles across the far NW Adirondacks early this morning, dry conditions will persist. Mid level clouds continue to gradually increase from the west. Latest trends in guidance indicate surface high pressure remaining positioned along the New England through this evening. Ridging aloft will also be in place during this time. So arrival of showers have been slowed even further, with the day/evening now expected to be mainly dry. A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west of the Hudson Valley this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening mid level clouds. There is expected to be periods of clouds with occasional breaks of sunshine through this afternoon. So high temperatures should be slightly above normal again, with mid 60s to lower 70s expected across much of the area. Chances for showers will then increase overnight west of the Hudson Valley, with the upper ridge axis starting to break down as a short wave moves in from the west. It will be dry with overcast skies from the Hudson Valley east. Again with the slower trends, will only mention slight/chance PoPs through tonight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cool, raw and damp conditions will occur on Sunday. Widespread showers will move across the entire area, as forcing increases substantially with isentropic lift strengthening on the 290-295K surfaces. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a slow moving front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions will allow deep layer moisture to increase with PWAT anomalies rising to +1 to +2 STDEV. The short wave trough aloft will also be moving eastward across the region enhancing ascent. With clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, highs will only reach the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Showers will likely persist into Sun evening, as the surface front gradually approaches from the west with isentropic lift continuing. Will mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The front looks to push through overnight into early Mon morning, with showers tapering off from NW to SE. Total rainfall expected to be 0.25-0.50" from around Albany south/east, with 0.50-1.00" north/west(greatest amounts upper Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks). The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns. Drying conditions expected on Mon, as the front clears the area and surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Winds will shift to the W-NW, with PWATs lowering through the day. After morning clouds, sunshine should appear during the afternoon. With a well-mixed environment and relatively mild temperatures aloft, highs should be quite mild ranging from mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys. High pressure builds east into our region Mon night, providing dry/tranquil conditions. Lows look to be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fair weather with warm temperatures for Tuesday as weak mid level ridge traverses the region. Highs in the 70s for most valley areas except 65-70 for higher terrain areas. Unsettled conditions then return for Wednesday through Friday, as a series of fast moving upper level disturbances pass through. This should bring plenty of clouds along with several bouts of rain or showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms at times. Temperatures will be near to below normal during this period, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70, although could be much cooler if steady rain occurs, with overnight lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening, with some MVFR Cigs possibly developing after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level clouds will increase late tonight through Saturday. Lower clouds are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL, possibly dropping to 2000-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun. Light/variable winds are expected through daybreak, though may remain south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB. Southeast to south winds will increase to 5-10 KT at all TAF sites by mid morning Saturday and continue into Saturday evening. A few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time. Outlook... Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL ####018004513#### FXUS64 KOUN 040730 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 230 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front has moved into far NW parts of the fa and will continue to move across parts of the area today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across the area through the morning hours with the highest chances near/behind the front. Gusty winds and maybe some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rain will also be possible. Additional showers/storms could develop in the area later this afternoon near any lingering boundaries. Meanwhile, showers/storms are also expected to develop SW of the fa this afternoon then spread NE into the area this evening. Storm development will continue overnight into Sunday as a shortwave moves across the southern Plains. Some severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours with large hail and damaging winds possible but the biggest concern tonight will likely shift to flooding. Heavy rain is expected this evening into Sunday, especially across the southern half or so of the fa. Will continue with the current Flood Watch but flooding will be of particular concern in those areas that have already received heavy rainfall over the last week. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers/storms are expected to continue into Sunday as the shortwave continues to move across the southern Plains with heavy rain/flooding the primary concern although some of the storms could also produce some strong winds and hail. Rain chances will gradually decrease from west to east Sunday. Monday: It still looks like there could be a significant severe weather event in the area on Monday. Models show a negatively tilted trough approaching the region Monday. At the sfc, a dryline is expected to move into western parts of the fa by late afternoon. Ahead of the dryline, a moist, unstable airmass is expected to be in place. Storms are expected to develop near the dryline late Monday afternoon/evening. The highest chance for storm development will be in northern parts of the fa closer to the upper support with storm coverage expected to decrease the farther south you go. Severe storms are expected with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture will linger in SE parts of the fa. Heating and any disturbances in the flow could lead to storm development late afternoon/evening on both days in southeast parts of the fa but chances are currently low. A frontal boundary is expected to move across the area middle/late next week which will shunt the better moisture south of the fa that could lead to at least a brief break in the active weather pattern before more widespread rain chances potentially return next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR and MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period except for possibly KDUA where IFR ceilings could be possible early Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area, generally along and north of I-40 overnight. A cold front will also begin to move into the area overnight and continue to move SE across the area with showers/storms possible with the front through Saturday morning. Additional showers/storms will be possible Saturday afternoon/evening along any remnant boundaries and/or moving into southern parts of the area. Winds will shift to the N and NE behind the cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 58 72 62 / 70 80 80 20 Hobart OK 72 57 74 61 / 60 90 60 20 Wichita Falls TX 78 62 76 64 / 50 90 60 10 Gage OK 71 50 74 57 / 20 50 40 20 Ponca City OK 71 54 69 59 / 100 70 70 20 Durant OK 80 65 76 64 / 50 80 90 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-023>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25