####018004430#### FXUS62 KMFL 040730 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 330 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 A rather benign weather pattern remains in place across South Florida today with continued light to moderate easterly flow with surface high pressure to the east. Southwest Florida has the best opportunity for any isolated showers or weak convection with the sea breeze today and Sunday afternoon. An upper level disturbance advancing towards and into the Florida panhandle will open a small weakness in the upper level flow across the Florida peninsula from Saturday into Saturday night. This weak upper level disturbance combined with an increase in the moisture profile between 850 and 700 mb should induce some slightly greater PoPs during Saturday afternoon into the 20 to 40 percent range. With the continued moderate easterly flow, this activity will be most favored across the interior/western portions of South Florida. Expect for the afternoon highs to top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic, maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow across the region. 500 mb heights begin to increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging will build into the region from the west. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day next week with eastern areas more likely to see any weak activity during the early afternoon hours with the inland progression of the sea breeze. The east coast breeze will continue to push further inland with slightly better chances for isolated showers or storms across Southwest Florida. The PoPs then look to diminish even more into late next week as the upper level ridge strengthens. The temperatures also respond as afternoon highs could reach the mid to even upper 90s across interior locations by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Generally easterly flow around 8 kts will increase to around 12 kts with higher gusts after 16Z. KAPF will again see a W-SW wind shift during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Besides occasional times of gusty easterly winds, anticipate for marine conditions to stay rather benign through the weekend and entering into early next week. Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. Winds are likely to peak in the 13-18 kts range out of the east and likely induce periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially across the Palm Beach County beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 40 20 West Kendall 86 71 85 71 / 20 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 86 72 85 73 / 20 20 40 20 Homestead 83 73 84 74 / 20 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 83 74 83 75 / 20 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 83 74 83 74 / 20 20 40 20 Pembroke Pines 86 73 86 74 / 20 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 84 72 84 72 / 20 20 40 10 Boca Raton 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 40 20 Naples 88 71 88 71 / 30 30 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES....Rizzuto AVIATION...17 ####018004987#### FXUS62 KFFC 040732 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 332 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging should build by the end of the weekend. 500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. A shortwave trough is moving through central AL early this morning. This mid level system could provide just enough lift for some light shra/patchy light rain early this morning and continue to provide some lift for scattered afternoon convection. The shortwave trough will move very slowly eastward, and could remain right along the coast through early Sunday. Ridging should briefly build across the CWA late Sunday. At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. A weak frontal boundary will move across the Mid Mississippi River Valley and Ohio Valley on Sunday. The front will sag southward late Sunday, with the boundary laying down from east to west. The boundary should remain north of the CWA. Not much denoted in the surface pattern to focus convection, the main forcing mechanisms should be in the mid levels. The high res models are showing some organization to convection this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA. This is likely associated with the trough aloft. Have kept pops mostly isold/sct across much of the CWA, but have kept the likely pops in the east. A few storms could become strong this afternoon with lightning and gusty winds being the primary hazards. BL winds remain very light (weak steering currents) and PWATs are 1.5"+, so locally heavy rainfall is possible where thunderstorms form. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 PoPs will remain elevated on Monday as a shortwave trough progresses through quasi-zonal midlevel flow across the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected given the presence of a moist airmass characterized by PWATs in the 1.5-1.7" range. While no notable severe threat is expected, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall would be expected in any stronger thunderstorm. Drier but hotter conditions will make a return by Tuesday into Wednesday as shortwave ridging builds across the area. As such, any isolated/widely scattered convection would be relegated to far north Georgia during these midweek days. Temperatures will respond in kind with upper 80s to low 90s spreading across the area for highs, some 8-12 degrees above seasonal norms. Flow aloft by Thursday becomes more southwesterly between the trough extending from the Great Lakes and ridging centered across the Gulf. With the near-stationary surface front extending across the Mid- Mississippi Valley Thursday, disturbances propagating along the frontal zone will serve to increase PoPs, especially across north Georgia. Given plentiful SBCAPE and more favorable bulk shear, will have to monitor the potential for any severe risk associated with potential convective complexes that could affect the area by Thursday and again into Friday as the surface front pushes into the area. RW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atmos remains fairly moist and isold shra will be possible through much of the overnight hours. Some patchy light rain is possible towards 12Z. MVFR cigs also possible towards 12Z, with some potential for IFR cigs for a few hours. May have to add a tempo during later amds. Scat convection possible again this afternoon and left the timing very similar to the previous TAF. Winds will should be either light/vrb or light SE overnight then switch to the SW during the day. IFR possible overnight Sat/early Sun. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 63 83 64 / 60 40 40 40 Atlanta 78 65 82 65 / 50 30 40 40 Blairsville 72 60 77 60 / 60 40 40 50 Cartersville 79 63 83 63 / 40 30 40 40 Columbus 85 66 87 66 / 40 20 40 30 Gainesville 76 64 81 64 / 60 30 40 40 Macon 82 65 86 65 / 60 40 40 20 Rome 80 63 84 64 / 40 30 40 50 Peachtree City 81 64 84 64 / 50 30 40 40 Vidalia 80 66 87 67 / 60 40 40 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...NListemaa ####018003688#### FXUS66 KHNX 040733 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1233 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Moderate to major winter storm impacts are expected in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet this afternoon and tonight due to blowing snow and snow amounts up to 18 inches. 2. Damaging wind gusts are anticipated in the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon through Sunday evening. 3. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada below 6,000 feet and adjacent foothills this afternoon. 4. A warming trend is expected Monday through at least Friday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper-level area of low pressure just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will move southeastward today. Precipitation ahead of this storm system will overspread Central California from north to south this afternoon. The cyclone aloft will move eastward across Northern California tonight, before entering the Great Basin Sunday. Moderate to major winter storm impacts are anticipated in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet this afternoon and tonight due to blowing snow and snow amounts up to 18 inches. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect. Damaging wind gusts are expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon through Sunday evening. There is a 64 percent chance of wind gusts of 58 mph or higher at Walker Pass tonight. A High Wind Warning is in effect. Strong, gusty west winds are anticipated in the remainder of the Mojave Desert this afternoon through Sunday evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect. A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable in the Sierra Nevada below 6,000 feet and adjacent foothills this afternoon. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in the Sierra Nevada below 6,000 feet and adjacent foothills this afternoon: Shaver Lake - 22% Auberry - 21% Oakhurst - 20% Coarsegold - 20% Mariposa - 18% Yosemite Valley - 17% The forecast area will remain between a pesky atmospheric disturbance over the Central United States and a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean next week. As far as temperatures are concerned, high temperatures this afternoon will be eleven to thirteen degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon. Maximum temperatures Sunday afternoon will be around fifteen degrees below normal for this time of year. A warming trend is anticipated Monday through at least Friday. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures will be seven to nine degrees above their typical values for the first half of May. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across Central California this morning. MVFR or lower conditions are likely in and near precipitation this afternoon and this evening. Mountain obscurations are expected in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains tonight. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339. Winter Storm Warning above 6000 feet from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ323-326>330. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...BS PIO/DSS........................DS weather.gov/hanford ####018011441#### FXUS63 KLMK 040733 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 333 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Slow moving storm motion and moderate to heavy rain expected with any storm. * Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday before widespread rain chances return Sunday night into Monday. * Increasing potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms next Tuesday through Thursday, though confidence in details is still low. * Elevated flooding potential will exist where multiple rounds of heavy rain from strong storms occurs over the next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ========== This Morning ========== A weak, stalled frontal boundary remains draped across portions of the region this morning. Temperature/Moisture spreads on either side of the boundary remain diffuse, but weak low level convergence has aided in sporadic shower development early this morning. ACARS from SDF have indicated poor low/mid level lapse rates, so thunderstorms are highly unlikely in most of this activity. While it's been slow to develop, stratus is expected to become gradually widespread toward dawn along with some patchy fog. These clouds will gradually lift after sunrise and transition to more of a strato-cu by the afternoon. Should the stratus not be as widespread as anticipated by dawn... dense fog would then become an issue this morning in areas of clearing as winds will be light and soils/ground very moist from recent rains. Will continue to evaluate the cloud/model trends going through the morning hours but something to monitor closely. ========== This Afternoon ========== Surface heating will begin to erode a weak low level cap so that by early afternoon we should be CIN-free across the region. Atmosphere will turn more unstable as models indicate 1,000-1,500 J/KG of MLCAPE to support thunderstorm potential, though deep layer shear will be very weak so storms that do develop today shouldn't pose much of a severe/organized threat. Coverage of storms looks to be mainly limited by a lack of a defined lifting mechanism as the frontal boundary currently in place this morning will become diffuse and 'washed' out by the afternoon. Convection that develops today will generally be along mesoscale/differential heating boundaries, and most of the CAMs point to those being east of the I-65 corridor. As such, generally carrying 20-30% chances for rain/storms west of the I-65 corridor, with 30-50% chances east of the I-65 corridor. Given weak deep layer shear, storm motions will be on the slower side today (~10mph), and forecast soundings and environmental parameters support heavy rain in thunderstorms today. Areas that see training (repeated) storms over a short timeframe could have some localized flood issues. ========== Tonight ========== Showers/Storms from the afternoon should steadily decrease overnight as a weak nocturnal inversion builds in. Most rain chances drop considerably after midnight. Should be another mild night as dewpoints remain elevated and lows by Sunday morning hover in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Synopsis... At the beginning of the extended forecast period on Sunday, two areas of upper level troughing are expected across North America. First, a lower amplitude trough axis extending from Hudson Bay down into the upper Great Lakes will quickly eject eastward toward the Canadian Maritimes during the first half of next week. A sfc cold front will approach the Ohio Valley from the west on Sunday but is expected to dissipate as it loses support from the progressive upper trough. In the wake of the first cold front/upper trough, a subtle mid-level disturbance is expected to develop across the southern Plains on Sunday before moving northeast into the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of this feature, low-mid level moisture return is expected across the Ohio and TN Valleys, supporting enhanced chances for rainfall as this wave crosses the region late Sunday night into Monday. The more impactful large-scale feature in the long term will be an amplified upper trough which is expected to eject eastward from the intermountain west into the central and eastern CONUS during the middle of next week. With the trough progged to broaden considerably in medium-range ensemble guidance, its eastward transition will be fairly slow, leaving our region in deep-layer SW flow as embedded shortwaves transit from SW to NE over much of next week. This will allow for multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms, as support from upper-level shortwaves will combine with a moist, unstable air mass south and east of a broad baroclinic zone. By the end of next week into early next weekend, the large-scale trough is expected to settle across the eastern half of North America, bringing a reduction in instability, and by extension, shower and thunderstorm chances across our region. Sunday through Monday Night... As mentioned above, a decaying cold front will approach on Sunday, which will primarily be identified by a low-level moisture gradient, as drier air tries to push in behind the front from the north and west. With the front expected to hang up/wash out over our area, low- level moisture will still remain elevated, with HREF mean dewpoints Sunday afternoon in the mid 60s. This will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE to develop (HREF 25th-75th percentile), which when combined with the subtle forcing from the front, should be enough to initiate isolated to scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon. Current PoPs range from 30-50%, but this may need to be adjusted downward if subsequent hi-res model runs increases confidence in more isolated convection. Coverage of showers and storms should decrease initially after sunset Sunday as instability decreases. Sunday night into Monday, increasing southerly flow and moisture advection downstream of the approaching mid-level shortwave will support increasing coverage of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. There is still some disagreement in the models on the exact track of Monday's system, although enhanced rain chances from most solutions, with variations in track mainly affecting precipitation totals. The severe potential on Monday looks to be limited, as a deep warm and moist layer creates sounding profiles which more closely resemble the "tall, skinny CAPE" paradigm, which is generally unsupportive of severe convection. By Monday night, precipitation should begin to clear the region to the east, assisted along as the deeper trough over the western CONUS pushes its way into the central CONUS. Monday night into Tuesday morning should see a relative lull in precipitation coverage and intensity as brief ridging aloft moves across the Ohio/TN Valleys. Tuesday through Late Next Week... Confidence continues to increase in the potential for multiple waves of strong to severe thunderstorms and flooding during the middle of next week. While there is relatively good agreement on the large- scale features during the middle of next week, there is lower confidence in timing and expected intensity of individual waves of showers and thunderstorms, which will be driven by transient shortwaves ejecting along the southeastern flank of the larger trough. Of particular note is continued elevated values of the CAPE and CAPE-Shear fields within the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, with values exceeding 0.8 in both fields from Tuesday through Thursday. This suggests that there is good agreement within the ECMWF ensemble members in elevated values of CAPE and wind shear during this time period. Colorado State Machine Learning severe weather probabilities show an area of greater than 30% chances of severe weather across the mid-MS, OH, and TN valleys during this time period. In fact, there is relatively good agreement in extended rage severe convection proxies of multiple kinds (Neural Network/ML, analogs, ensemble-derived) during the middle of next week. While this whole Tuesday-Thursday time period exhibits elevated concern, the expected combination of kinematics and thermodynamics appears most concerning next Wednesday into Wednesday night. Ensemble guidance generally shows a sfc low passing north of the I- 70 corridor, with destabilization taking place across central KY and southern IN within the warm sector Wednesday afternoon. There are certainly failure modes out there (residual effects from antecedent convection, to name one), but taking model sounding progs at face value, there would be ample instability and shear for storms to work with, in addition to a well-defined forcing boundary in the form of a descending sfc cold front. The combination of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 3-6 days will mean that river levels as well as areal flooding will need to be monitored, especially the further we head into next week. By the end of next week, the large-scale trough is favored to sink southward across the eastern CONUS, with low-level NW flow helping to clear out the moist and unstable air mass. However, exactly how quickly this transition takes place is a source of lingering model disagreement, so we'll continue to leave PoPs in the forecast into Friday. On the whole, a quieter period of weather is expected across the region next weekend, as the post-frontal environment will have limited instability and cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 116 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Complicated and low confidence forecast for the TAF period. A weak frontal boundary is currently stalled across the region and local obs indicate MVFR/IFR cigs near the convergence zone of the front. As we go toward dawn, low level moisture in the form of stratus should build down and widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vis should be present across all TAF sites. Localized LIFR cigs are possible. One caveat to this forecast is that if the stratus does not become as widespread as models indicate, we could see dense fog develop instead given light winds and moist soils/ground from recent rain. The morning stratus/fog will be slow to burn off and lift, and it may not be until early afternoon that all sites get to VFR levels. Moisture trapped near the top of the boundary layer will keep a BKN strato-cu deck going for most of the day. Isolated to scattered storms will also be possible in the afternoon, with the highest chances for precipitation generally east of the I-65 corridor. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...DM ####018009268#### FXUS61 KAKQ 040733 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 333 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: -Dreary conditions across the entire forecast area today with extensive low-level cloud cover and scattered showers. Yesterday's backdoor cold front is situated just south of the FA early this morning. High pressure over New England is wedging cool, moist air into the Mid-Atlantic. With the front projected to stay S of the area today, expect a dreary Saturday. Latest radar shows scattered showers, primarily W of I-95. Chances for showers will continue through the day, but with the best forcing/lift and moisture remaining to the W, the highest coverage will continue to be over the piedmont. Closer to the coast, low level moisture from onshore flow will allow for patchy drizzle to continue through the morning. Minimal thunder is expected today, but could have a few rumbles in SW counties this evening. Easterly winds will be breezy E of I-95, especially near the coast, with gusts of 15-25mph. Temps today will be cool across far northern portions of the FA. Highs will struggle to even reach 60F. Far southern portions will likely see a few breaks in the clouds and winds will have a slight southerly component, allowing for warmer temps in the mid 70s. The gradient between these warmer temps and the rest of the FA will likely be sharp, so expect most will see cooler highs in the 60s. Showers in the far western counties increase in coverage overnight with lower end chances extending E to the coast. The front will start to move back N overnight, leading to stable if not slightly increasing temps late tonight/early Sunday. Lows will be in the low- mid 50s across the N and low 60s in the S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday. - More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide. The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s (and maybe as high as 80) and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours. Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: -A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and above- normal temps. -There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week. An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over through the end of the week. A ridge aloft builds in Tuesday, then weakens slightly starting Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass on Thursday ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area late in the week. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily rounds of showers/thunderstorms. Will be monitoring this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid- level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. Highs on Tues will be in the upper 70s on the Eastern Shore and low 80s W of the bay. Well-above normal temps on Wed/Thurs with the potential for widespread 90 degree highs. Fri looks a bit cooler, but still in the 80s for most. Lows generally in the mid-60s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Saturday... Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 06z/04 TAF period as IFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with perhaps some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, scattered showers have spread over western portions of the area, and Richmond will likely see brief periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast). Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 710 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night. - Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday. - Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday. Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters). Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time. Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 905 PM EDT Friday... Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and stay just shy of minor flood stage overnight. Tidal anomalies continue to increase this weekend with minor to locally moderate flooding (at Bishops Head) possible across the middle and upper bay due prolonged onshore flow. Nuisance to minor flooding is possible up the James River as well Sat evening. Will likely need to upgrade the Coastal Flood Statement to a Coastal Flood Advisory across parts of the upper Bay for the Sat afternoon high tide. However, given that the upcoming high tide stays just below, will hold off for now. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...AM SHORT TERM...AM/SW LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM/ERI MARINE...LKB/RMM/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018007688#### FXUS61 KBUF 040734 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 334 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough will dissipate over the region today. While this feature may produce a few spotty showers, much of the time will be rain free. A wave of low pressure will then move from the Ohio Valley this evening across the eastern Great Lakes overnight through Sunday, bringing a round of widespread rain to the region. The rain will gradually taper off to scattered showers from west to east Sunday, before ending entirely Sunday night. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes Monday with a return to dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Radar imagery showing a few spotty light showers across the area early this morning, mainly from the Genesee Valley eastward to the eastern Lake Ontario region. These spotty showers will continue through the morning hours as a weak trough drifts east across the region and washes out. Coverage of showers will remain sparse, with dry weather most of the time. The weak trough will wash out today over the eastern Great Lakes. Lingering mid level moisture will keep plenty of cloud cover in place, but overall the lack of forcing will only support spotty showers at best. Most areas will stay dry from late morning through the afternoon, with the best chance of a few spotty showers across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier with terrain induced low level convergence and weak diurnal instability. A well defined mid level shortwave will then move from the Ohio Valley this evening northeast across the eastern Great Lakes overnight, generally following the path left by the remnants of the trough that washes out over the area today. A 40+ knot southerly low level jet ahead of the trough will bring a period of enhanced convergence and low level moisture transport overnight. This will combine with forcing from the shortwave to produce a fairly widespread area of rain moving from southwest to northeast across the region. Low stratus may intersect some of the higher hills overnight through Sunday morning, resulting in patchy fog across higher terrain. Sunday, the mid level trough and associated forcing and deep moisture will continue to move slowly northeast. Widespread rain early in the day will gradually taper off to scattered showers from west to east. The widespread rain should end in Western NY fairly early in the day, while it will continue most, if not all day east of Lake Ontario. While the widespread rain will end across Western NY, an upstream cold front will move into the far western end of the state by late afternoon. This will combine with modest diurnal instability and lake breeze convergence zones to support a few more scattered showers in the afternoon and evening. Enough instability may develop to support a few thunderstorms as well across Western NY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The synoptic set up heading into Sunday night will feature a upper level trough just north of the Great Lakes. The axis of this trough will then pivot across the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec by Monday morning. A potent shortwave diving south into the trough's base Monday will cause the longwave trough to rotate east into the Canadian Maritimes Monday night. Down at the surface, low pressure centered over eastern Quebec will continue to track northeast into the Canadian Maritimes, dragging its associated surface cold front across the region Sunday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure across the central Great Lakes will begin to advect east towards the eastern Great Lakes. Rain showers ahead of the front will then finish crossing from west to east Sunday night. Surface high pressure will continue to advect east across the area Monday and Monday night, resulting in a period of dry weather. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast throughout the day, however a disturbance passing east across the Ohio Valley towards the Mid- Atlantic will support clouds to linger across the New York/Pennsylvania state line. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broad mid and upper level low over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains Tuesday will gradually drift east across the northern half of the contiguous United States throughout the remainder of the work week. The track and progression of this low continues to have timing and placement differences which also impacts the strength, timing and placement of shortwave disturbances rotating through this feature. This being said forecast confidence continues to remain low. Overall at the time of this update, expect this system to result in unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and some thunderstorms throughout the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. This being said the whole timeframe will not be a wash out, and a few breaks in shower activity will be likely. Now regarding temperatures for the end of the week, expect highs to continue to average between 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak trough will continue to cross the region through early this morning with a few spotty, light showers. VFR will prevail for the bulk of the area, although some low MVFR/IFR stratus may develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier for several hours around daybreak. Some of this may impact KJHW. There will continue to be a few spotty showers today, but much of the time will be rain free as the trough washes out overhead. VFR will prevail with a wealth of mid level clouds. Another wave of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley this evening across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will bring a period of fairly widespread rain spreading from southwest to northeast across the area from late evening through the overnight. CIGS will deteriorate to widespread MVFR/IFR shortly after the rain begins. Any pockets of moderate rain will bring short term VSBY restrictions, and the low stratus may intersect some of the higher hilltops overnight through Sunday morning with some patchy fog/mountain obscuration across the high terrain. A 40+ knot low level jet will also produce some low level wind shear overnight. Outlook... Sunday...Widespread MVFR/IFR in the morning in rain. Improving to mainly VFR from west to east in the afternoon and evening as the rain tapers off. Chance of a few widely scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening across Western NY. Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Moderate southeast winds today through Sunday morning will produce choppy conditions on the lakes, mainly in the offshore and Canadian waters given the largely offshore wind component. Winds will then become southwest and decrease from west to east Sunday as a weak trough moves across the eastern Great Lakes. Generally light winds are then expected Monday through Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place across the eastern Great Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock