####018004756#### FXUS62 KCHS 040740 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 340 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast area will remain between a H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and broad trough over the western Carolinas and northern GA today. Early this morning, KCLX detected a few weak showers over inland GA, tracking north. Additional rounds of showers may develop over inland GA/SC later this morning, highlighted with SCHC to CHC PoPs for SHRA. Recent runs of the HRRR indicated that at least isolated showers developing over coastal GA during the pre-dawn hours, we will continue to monitor. The latest forecast will indicate dry conditions until mid-day. This afternoon, high temperatures across the region are forecast to generally range around 80 degrees. A sea breeze should advance inland early this afternoon, triggering showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to remain the greatest across the inland counties. Thunderstorm activity should gradually decrease this evening as the sea breeze pushes inland and temperatures begin to cool around sunset. The sfc pattern is expected to support light SSE winds through tonight. The light SSE winds combined with mostly cloudy sky conditions should keep temperatures in the upper 60s along the coast with mid 60s inland. The mid-level trough is forecast to swing east over the CWA late tonight. Guidance indicates that a band of moisture convergence will develop from the Gulf Stream northwest across the South Santee basin late tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be featured in the forecast for late tonight over the SC waters and portions of Charleston and Berkeley Counties late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mid-level ridge will sit off the Southeast coast as passing waves of shortwave energy ripple across the region through the short term forecast period. High pressure will remain the primary feature at the surface. Convection will be a bit active Sunday and Monday with the presence of a weak shortwave aloft and deeper moisture - noted by PWATs around 1.5-1.7 inches. Coverage of showers/thunderstorms will be highest in the daytime when instability is maximized, but activity could linger into the late evening with some upper forcing present. The greatest POPs are focused in southeast South Carolina and away from the immediate coast each day owing to the juxtaposition of upper forcing and the inland moving sea breeze. Chances for showers/thunderstorms will be slightly less Tuesday as the deeper moisture and remnant shortwave energy moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. High temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid 80s Sunday, warming into the mid 80s Monday, then into the upper 80s Tuesday. Min temperatures both Sunday and Monday are only expected to drop to the mid/upper 60s, with locations along the beaches and Downtown Charleston in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Atlantic high pressure will persist through the majority of next week before a cold front approaches late next week. Rainfall chances are little to none as a ridge rebuilds overhead. This will cause temperatures to rise into the low/mid 90s through the remainder of next week, approaching record levels Wednesday and again Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west of the terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible within isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday. && .MARINE... The surface pattern will yield south-southeast winds between 5-10 kts today and tonight. Wave heights are forecast to favor values around 2 ft, with 3 ft seas possible beyond 40 nm late tonight. Sunday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain relatively benign conditions over the local marine waters. Southerly winds in the morning will back slightly during the afternoon and evening hours nearly each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...BRM/NED MARINE...BRM/NED ####018005292#### FXUS61 KBGM 040741 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 341 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 330 am update... A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period. With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 342 AM Update... Showers associated with an upper level disturbance will be exiting the area Sunday night, with the best shower chances lingering back across the Catskills and Poconos. However, a weakening cold front will remain to our west, and this will keep a small chance of rain showers in the picture through the night, although upper level support will be lacking. The front itself will weaken into a surface trough and drag itself across the area on Monday and more or less dissipate as it reaches the coast. A few pop-up showers will be possible across NE PA as the trough slowly drifts through the area Monday afternoon. Temperatures will recover significantly from Sunday, with highs expected in the upper-60s to lower-70s across the area. High pressure will build in Monday night, with ideal conditions for radiational cooling dropping temps into the lower to middle 40s across the area, with 50s hanging on in the Wyoming Valley. Weak upper level ridging will make for fair weather on Tuesday, with highs climbing a few more degrees, into the middle to upper-70s. Some moisture riding well ahead of the next system will try to sneak in from the south, but shower chances look to stay out of the area until Tuesday night when a developing warm front drifts north across the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 342 AM Update... Low pressure over eastern Ontario will push a cold front through the area on Wednesday. The warm sector with this system looks rather narrow, with not much time between the overnight warm frontal passage and the cold fropa. As a result, instability will be weak, though a few thunderstorms will still be possible. The back half of Wednesday may end up fairly dry as precip may push east of the area early in the afternoon. The remainder of the period looks unsettled, as a positively tilted trough hangs back across Quebec and into the Great Lakes, keeping SW flow aloft in place across the Northeastern CONUS. A series of upper level disturbances, and an active jet stream to our north will keep periods of rain in the forecast, though the details are rather unclear. Leaned heavily on the NBM from Thursday onwards. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 120 AM Update VFR to prevail areawide into the afternoon. Conditions fall from south to north late today and tonight. AVP will be the first to fall to MVFR with rain showers around 20z. Fuel alternate around 23z. BGM/ELM drop to MVFR around 22z then fuel alternate around 01z. ITH drop to MVFR around 00z. Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning. This afternoon and tonight winds will be 10 with gusts to 15 to 20 kts. Outlook... Overnight tonight through Sunday night...Periods of rain will bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday. Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR. Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...TAC ####018006788#### FXUS62 KTAE 040742 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 342 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Satellite shows the axis of an approaching shortwave currently over Alabama this morning. This shortwave will rotate across the area through the day, leading to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing today into this evening. Forecast soundings show fairly good CAPE and DCAPE values around 800 J/kg, indicating some potential for a few stronger storms with gusty winds today. A few storms could also produce isolated pockets of heavy rainfall, but widespread heavy rainfall or flooding is not expected. While remaining quite warm, highs today will be a touch cooler than the previous few days due to the increased cloud cover and rain chances today. Lows will remain in the mid 60s.&& .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers and thunderstorms linger in the forecast Sunday and Monday afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to near 90 for highs and overnight lows only manage the middle to upper 60s. General troughiness at H5 should allow for a somewhat active sea breeze again Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture coupled with weak steering flow could lead to a localized flooding threat if any one shower/storm lingers over an area for too long. We'll also be on the lookout for outflow boundaries that could interact with other outflow boundaries or the sea breeze to spark additional showers and storms. The best chance for that occurring is generally east of the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers, with a lesser chance, around 30 percent, for our western areas. Another H5 shortwave is forecast to mosey north of our area during the day Monday and could lead to additional showers and storms Monday afternoon, especially along the I-75 corridor. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 To quote Glenn Frey: The heat is on. That about sums up the long term forecast for the rest of the work week. In fact, record highs could be challenged around the region as a ridge of high pressure takes over across the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast. Not much relief is expected at night with lows only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s around much of the region. The good news? A cold front is forecast to approach the region late in the period into next weekend and should push temperatures back to near normal, maybe even below normal, by Mother's Day weekend. All of this is heat is due to a developing H5 ridge over the Gulf of Mexico nudging north into the Southeast. Meanwhile, an H5 trough diving out of Canada Wednesday into Thursday could help keep the H5 ridge a little south than forecast. In other words, there remains some uncertainty as to just how warm we get across the region during the period. While the lower 90s are expected away from the immediate coast, there is a low chance, less than 10 percent, of a few locations reaching into the middle 90s each afternoon. Overnight lows will be well above normal each night with upper 60s to lower 70s. In fact, sites along the immediate coast may not dip much below the mid 70s Tuesday night and beyond. Fortunately, the H5 trough mentioned above will slowly push a cold front into the region sometime Friday or Saturday. This should put a damper on the summer-like heat by Mother's Day weekend and push temperatures closer to normal, or mid 80s for highs and near 60 for lows. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Fog and/or low stratus will be possible across most of the area this morning with light showers also possible across the northern sites. Conditions should improve to VFR by mid to late morning. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with the best chances across TLH/ABY/VLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Tranquil boating conditions continue through the weekend and into next week as high pressure hangs out in the western Atlantic. Light winds, generally out of the south-southeast, are expected with seas around 2 feet through the weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and storms today and again Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area today with gusty erratic winds possible in and around storms. Generally onshore flow is expected for the next several days except at times overnight when a land breeze may set up. Expect a sea breeze to develop and move inland each afternoon. Mixing heights will increase Monday, leading to the potential for high dispersions in the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 338 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Ample moisture coupled with the potential for slow-moving showers and storms this afternoon could lead to a localized flooding threat later today. The latest HREF is showing a 40 to 60 percent chance of rainfall in excess of 3" across our eastern timezone counties, or east of the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, over the next 48 hours. If these higher rainfall totals come to fruition, localized street flooding is possible, especially if it falls in the more urban areas. Drier weather takes over next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 66 89 68 / 50 40 30 10 Panama City 84 68 85 69 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 88 66 88 66 / 30 40 30 0 Albany 87 65 88 67 / 70 70 40 10 Valdosta 86 65 89 67 / 60 60 50 10 Cross City 87 65 88 66 / 40 20 40 10 Apalachicola 80 70 81 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Reese