####018003905#### FXUS64 KTSA 040752 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 252 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A small area of storms that developed further west earlier tonight will continue to push east within a weak 850 wind max, but will likely weaken with time. Additional storm development across the area is likely later this morning with a cold front that pushes into the area. Areal coverage will shift east this afternoon as convection weakens across the eastern part of the forecast area. Severe weather with this activity is unlikely. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Focus will turn to tonight and Sunday when chances for widespread showers and storms increase in association with an upper disturbance lifts northeast from Texas into Oklahoma and Arkansas. The severe threat will remain low, however higher areal coverage along with heavier rainfall threat will exist, and will increase flood potential- especially across areas that are already saturated. The previously issued flood watch will be in effect from 7am today through 7pm Sunday. Rain and storms will diminish in areal coverage later in the day Sunday, which will keep most of Sunday night and part of Monday quiet. A strong upper trough axis will swing out the mountain west region and into the high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop to the west along the dryline late in the day and advance east into northeast OK Monday evening/night. There is some uncertainty to the southern extent of the line as it enters E OK, so will keep the highest PoPs across NE OK and NW AR Monday night. At this time, all modes of severe are possible, but this will come into better focus as the event draws closer. After a lull Tuesday, additional storms are expected with the cold front that moves into the area Wednesday. Frontal timing suggest better storm chances will be across SE OK and NW AR Wednesday and Thursday. The slow moving upper low across the upper CONUS may move far enough east to push the boundary through the area and allow cooler and drier air to filter into the area by Friday. .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Ongoing storms over north central OK are likely to weaken as they spread toward NE OK terminals, however additional showers and storms may expand later this morning along the trailing cold front. The forecast will account for this possibility with at least isolated to scattered convection spreading eastward through the early to late morning hours. Periodic MVFR ceilings are also possible generally area wide late tonight through the morning. Storm chances continue through the day with the focus being the remnant outflow / weak cold front. More organized and widespread convection is expected into the region this evening into tomorrow night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 60 72 61 / 80 70 90 20 FSM 81 65 74 64 / 60 60 100 30 MLC 81 64 74 64 / 60 80 100 20 BVO 74 54 71 56 / 70 60 80 20 FYV 80 60 74 60 / 70 60 90 40 BYV 79 60 71 60 / 70 50 80 40 MKO 78 62 71 61 / 70 70 100 20 MIO 75 56 70 59 / 70 50 80 30 F10 79 60 72 61 / 70 80 90 20 HHW 78 65 73 64 / 50 70 90 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...07