####018005784#### FXUS64 KAMA 040815 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 315 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front has passed through the panhandles very early this morning. This front is causing some light showers and thunderstorms that will dissipate before the mid morning hours. The winds have shifted to the N post cold front and are currently gusting in the 20s to 30s mph. These winds will remain gusty through the rest of the morning with a slight weakening trend. The passage of the front will shunt moisture to the S leaving the panhandles with just cloudy skies. It wont be till the arrival of a short wave that the moisture will come surging back into the southern panhandles. This when coupled with the instability of the short wave will spark off another round of showers and thunderstorms. The overall dynamics of this system will allow for stronger storms to develop but this would be over more central TX and not in the panhandles. This doesn't mean no strong storms wont happen in the panhandle just that it is a very low chance. While the chance of rain may be high the intensity of the rain has a higher chance of being light as the moisture return wont be long or strong enough for high rainfall amounts. The moisture will have a high chance of sticking across the panhandles through the evening hours but as said before this should only lead to lighter showers and thunderstorms. It wont be until Sunday morning that most of the moisture get shunted out of the panhandles that the showers activity will become very light and isolated. Sunday will also see a stronger low pressure system develop across the desert SW which will begin to impact the southern plains. This would mainly be reflected with an increase in the winds for Sunday and a shift to a southerly direction. These southerly winds will also allow for Sunday to be warmer than Saturday with highs in the 70s. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Some breezy to possibly windy conditions may exist Monday afternoon (wind gusts potentially up to 50 mph) with a possible dryline set up across the far eastern combined Panhandles. Depending on the position of the dryline and upper level support from a potentially negatively tilted trough at H5 some thunderstorms will be possible for only the far eastern combined Panhandles. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now, around 20 to 30 percent, which may still be too high. This dryline is looking like it may still be well into western OK with no thunderstorms in the Panhandles. West of the dryline breezy and dry conditions are expected and depending on the state of fuels fire weather conditions may exist. The rest of the week looks primarily benign with maybe a couple of weak cold fronts bringing northerly winds and daytime temperatures back down into the 70s for Thu, and upper 60s to lower 70s for Fri. Fri a shortwave trough is progged to approach the far northwestern combined Panhandles with maybe a slight chance PoPs for the far western OK Panhandle. Beyond day 7, on Sat is when this trough may actually bring PoPs to the other parts of the FA. This will be the next potential weather maker after Mon. 36 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A cold front is passing through the panhandles this morning impacting all terminals. This front will bring gusty north winds to all terminals that will last to the afternoon hours today. These winds will be strongest with frontal passage and slowly become weaker through the morning hours. In OK panhandle the front will cause thunderstorms which can impact KGUY. This thunder activity is currently not expected to arrive at KDHT and KAMA as the chance for this are very low. The front will bring low clouds to all the terminals which will cause MVFR to IFR conditions with generally lower clouds in the OK panhandle compared to TX panhandle. This afternoon moisture will surge back into the panhandles from the S which can cause further showers and thunderstorms mainly in the S TX panhandles. This activity looks to be confined to the afternoon to early evening hours but there is a small chance that it could persist longer. KAMA and KDHT would be the more likely stations to be impacted by this thunder. Winds during the afternoon hours will likely weaken and shift to a more easterly flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 51 74 57 / 20 50 20 10 Beaver OK 69 47 74 56 / 10 30 30 10 Boise City OK 65 44 75 55 / 10 20 10 0 Borger TX 73 52 78 59 / 10 40 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 71 51 79 59 / 10 40 20 10 Canyon TX 70 51 74 57 / 20 40 20 10 Clarendon TX 69 52 70 58 / 40 60 20 20 Dalhart TX 67 46 75 54 / 10 30 20 0 Guymon OK 68 46 75 55 / 10 20 20 10 Hereford TX 71 52 77 58 / 20 40 10 10 Lipscomb TX 70 50 74 57 / 10 50 30 10 Pampa TX 69 51 73 58 / 20 50 30 10 Shamrock TX 71 52 71 57 / 70 60 30 20 Wellington TX 71 54 72 58 / 60 60 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...98 ####018006802#### FXUS61 KOKX 040816 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 416 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in place along the New England coast into tonight. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US today, with surface high pressure in place along the New England coast. This will maintain a persistent onshore flow through the weekend, and lead to cooler than typical temperatures for early May. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure associated with a shortwave riding over the ridge passes well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes late in the day, sending a slow approaching frontal boundary toward the region. While a spotty shower can't be ruled out this afternoon, mainly in far western portions of the region, the day will be predominantly dry. Expect a fair amount of cloud cover, thickening into this evening as the ridge axis shifts offshore, allowing deeper moisture to advect into the area in the SW flow. This should lead to eastward expansion of shower coverage off to the west that very gradually begins to work in tonight, likely after midnight even for the farthest west locales. With the return flow and cloud cover, temperatures this weekend run up to 10 degrees below normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s today, falling into the 40s overnight into Sunday AM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... By Sunday, the shortwave associated with an upper low over Central Canada attempts to break down the ridging over the East Coast, with the surface front draped along the Midwest starting to make progress eastward. Guidance continues to advance this boundary quite slowly, with the fropa perhaps not occurring locally until Monday. Ahead of it, plenty of deep moisture in the column and weak lift should instigate shower activity by the mid morning, at least for the western half of the region, before spreading east by the afternoon. Showers may continue intermittently into Sunday night before tapering west to east. QPF appears light with this activity, generally ranging from a quarter to a half inch. The shortwave energy pushes offshore Monday with the surface boundary stalling to our south and west. Ridging builds once again across the Great Lakes in response to a large upper low over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. Latest guidance is less enthused about energy riding under this and interacting with the stalled boundary, bringing a return of steadier rain chances. Trimmed back PoPs Monday night as a result, though still not out of the question a few showers make it into Long Island from the south. After the chilly Sunday in the low to mid 50s for most, temperatures rebound on Monday in SW flow back into the 70s across the interior and areas away from maritime influence. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday begins with high pressure to our north and a stationary front across the Mid-Atlantic. This front is expected to slowly push north towards us as a warm front through the day. Looks like most of the day will be dry, but still a low threat of showers over roughly the western half of the forecast area - closer to the deeper moisture and lift. A ridge aloft flattens Tuesday night into Wednesday with a surface low tracking east across the northern Great Lakes. The warm front will continue to try to push into the forecast area during this time, however a synoptic onshore flow off of cold waters along with influence from low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes with both serve to hold this front to our south. Chance of showers for this period, and maybe even a rumble of thunder Weds afternoon with elevated instability pushing in from the west. The surface low to our north then weakens with the flattening ridge aloft Weds night into Thursday with another wave of low pressure heading east - this time tracking through the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The boundary to our south doesn't make much progress as the surface low is weak along with no significant llj to help push the front northward. PoPs however increase in the afternoon into nighttime with the approach of the surface low and associated moisture and lift. Best guess right now is that this system shifts through at some point Thursday night into Friday, but there's uncertainty with this timing. There's also the potential of yet another wave of pressure forming to our west and maintaining rain chances through all of Friday. NBM was used for temperatures through the long term. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains in place through tonight. VFR today into early evening. MVFR develops later in the evening, with cigs lowering to IFR overnight. A shower possible starting late this afternoon, however rainfall doesn't become likely until Sunday afternoon. Light easterly flow or variable in direction through at least 12z, then ESE-SE winds around 10kt through the rest of the TAF period. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Brief MVFR cigs possible before 12z. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Tonight: IFR. Chance of showers. Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Showers likely mainly in the afternoon. SE winds G15-20kt. Monday...MVFR/IFR in the morning, then MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. Tuesday... VFR. Wednesday...MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions can be expected through the weekend with high pressure along the New England coast maintaining an easterly or southeasterly flow across the waters and speeds generally at or under 10 kt. Winds and seas should then remain below SCA criteria through the middle of next week with a weak pressure gradient in place. && .HYDROLOGY... There are currently no hydrologic concerns through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DR NEAR TERM...DR SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JC MARINE...JC/DR HYDROLOGY...JC/DR