####018007152#### FXUS61 KCLE 040821 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 421 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern continues as a warm front lifts back north into the area today. Low pressure will move west to east through the Central Great Lakes late tonight into Sunday pulling a weak cold front east across the area. This frontal boundary will stall across southern Ohio on Monday as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A moist airmass remains in place across the region with PW values of around 1.30 inches. The local area resides between an upper level trough approaching the Midwest and a ridge anchored along the East Coast. At the surface, winds veer around to the southeast lifting a warm front back north into the area. This will be the driving feature for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop and move north through the afternoon. Instability will be a little higher towards the I-75 corridor with 500-1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Shortwave energy will move out of the Tennessee Valley today across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This will help focus showers by this evening across eastern portions of the forecast areas. The flow through the column remains weak so any thunderstorms that develop will be slow moving. Despite cloud cover and expanding showers, temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s. Raised highs at Erie Pennsylvania a few degrees as southeasterly downsloping winds become breezy this afternoon and evening. The more convectively driven showers in the west should wane this evening while rain continues across the east fueled by the shortwave energy. Mild and humid conditions will continue tonight. Upper level trough over the Midwest lifts northeast towards James Bay through Sunday morning. The trailing cold front moves west to east across the forecast area on Sunday. Modest instability of 500-1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE is forecast to develop in the warm sector ahead of the front. In addition we will have a little better forcing provided by the front and shortwave energy passing north of Lake Erie. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop along a line from near Geauga County west to the Central Highlands. Temperatures will be in the 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s. It looks like a few thunderstorms may develop west of I-71 but coverage should increase as storms reach Northeast Ohio. Bulk shear values are on the order of 25-30 knots. The should provide a little better organization so the Storm Predication Center has placed eastern portions of the forecast area into a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday afternoon and evening which seems reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sunday night into Monday should be the best chance of the short term period to have no shower/storm chances for the CWA and primarily go with a dry forecast prior to 18Z Monday. This begins in a post frontal environment with high pressure building over the Great Lakes and pushing the cold front further to south away from the southern zones. Upper level trough will track into the region from the southwest, bringing the POPs northward then back into the southern zones later Monday into Monday evening before exiting, and the surface high pressure regaining control of the area. Frontal boundary that stalled south of the CWA will push back northeastward Tuesday in response to an intermountain west upper low driving a mid latitude system eastward into the Mississippi Valley. Higher POPs return late Tuesday as a result. Not much instability to work with until Tuesday when SBCAPE returns in the warm sector and low/mid levels flows increase. Monday will be one of the cooler days in the forecast, but rebounding, again, in the warm sector Tuesday back into the 70s to near 80F for the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front Tuesday night followed by weak surface high pressure into Wednesday, but operational models then develop another surface low moving in from the southwest as the progressive nature of this Spring pattern continues. As this surface low passes through the CWA Thursday, another cold front pushes through in its wake Thursday night. Along with POPs making yet another comeback in this time frame, a cooler airmass will follow for the end of the long term behind the cold front. 70s give way to 60s for Friday and Saturday in this cooler regime. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... A few pockets of light showers are ongoing at the start of the period. Nearly anywhere could get a light shower overnight but coverage will be limited and most won't. Only included a tempo for a light shower at MFD which seemed most likely over the next couple hours. Otherwise ceilings are VFR but expect to see some MVFR cloud fill in through the overnight period. On Saturday there is a little better forcing to see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms develop across Central Ohio and spread north through the afternoon. Coverage will be focused more towards Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the evening. Tried to time some tempos in for showers where appropriate. Did not include thunderstorms at this time but a few thunderstorms will be possible and may need to add as confidence increases. Otherwise ceilings will tend to be MVFR for much of the day with reduced visibilities in showers and IFR possible in thunderstorms. Ceilings are expected to lower on Saturday night as a slow moving trough approaches from the west. Winds will tend to be 10 knots or less through the period. Light and variable winds through 14Z will become south to southeasterly for most inland terminals. Lakeshore areas will hold onto an east or northeast wind for longer, but also eventually expected to shift around to the south/southeast. Erie is the one site that may see gusts to around 20-25 knots tomorrow afternoon/evening. Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Easterly winds today become offshore tonight, but the quick changing surface weather systems moving through the region will be characteristic of varying wind directions through the forecast period. Winds largely less than 15kts as well during this time, and expect wave heights in the nearshore and open waters to remain below 2ft except for Monday. Waves could briefly be over 2ft in northerly winds behind a cold front at that time in the central and western basin, and again towards the end of next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...KEC MARINE...26 ####018002691#### FXUS63 KFGF 040822 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 322 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Shortwave trough rotating around the bottom of the Hudson Bay low through ND will swing further east into MN, bringing some scattered rain showers mostly to our northern counties today. Instability looks lower than yesterday so think our chances for pea hail and lightning are less. Upper ridging will briefly move into the region for tomorrow, bringing our break in the active pattern. Sunday should see increasing southeasterly winds as a surface low develops to our west, along with sunshine and temperatures climbing into the 60s. The ridge will be short lived as a strong negatively tilted trough starts to move into the Plains on Monday. The main upper low will be over eastern MT/western ND into Tuesday, but there is good agreement in the ensemble members in the lead shortwave ejecting out Monday night. While timing is less than ideal for severe convection over our CWA as there will be very little instability to work with as the main forcing comes out, CIPS analogs do show some isolated severe reports possible as far north as our southern counties in these type of patterns. Ensemble means have instability improving a little bit to around 500 J/kg by Tuesday afternoon, although deep layer bulk shear goes down. Confidence is not high enough to start messaging severe at this point, but could see some organized storms early next week, and we will definitely see more rainfall with the wet signal in the R and M climate continuing. Predictability goes downhill for the end of the week with models struggling with how to handle the exiting of the upper low off to the east. Most show some sort of split flow at least in the short term, with cool and wet pattern continuing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR ceilings area over the area with mix of mid/high clouds southeast 1/2 of the fcst area and some mix of high end MVFR/low VFR clouds near the Canadian border. Some of these clouds in the north will sink south and ceilings may lower into more consistent MVFR range DVL-TVF zone and maybe GFK for a time late tonight or Sat morning. West or northwest wind 5 to 15 kts thru the pd. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...DTR ####018005183#### FXUS61 KCTP 040823 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 423 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Noticeable cool down for the first weekend of May with cloudy skies and periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MRMS radar at 08Z shows ~100mi wide band of light to moderate rain along a SW to NE oriented 500mb vorticity axis extending from the southwest corner of PA into the Endless Mtns north of KIPT. Expect this corridor of rain to remain in-place through daybreak with more rain on the way to start the first weekend in May. The latest hires model guidance supports periods of rain throughout today and into tonight ahead of an upper level shortwave lifting out of the Tennessee Valley. The associated southerly low level jet and plume of higher pwats will overrun a dome of cool/stable air (entrenched within a CAD pattern configuration) to bring 0.25-0.75" of rain to the area. This pattern will also ensure a significant cool down from recent days with fcst max temps in the 50-60F range or 10 to 25 degrees cooler vs. yesterday depending on location. Not much change in sensible wx overnight with periods of rain continuing with lows in the 45-50F range or +5-10F above early May climo. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday looks to be another relatively cool day for early May due to a persistent southeast flow off of the Atlantic. However, a slight rebound in warmth is expected over the western and southwestern periphery of the CWA as steadier rain tapers off. Fcst highs range from 55F in the Endless mtns and southern Poconos to ~70F in the far southwest corner of the CWA (near Confluence in Somerset County). Scattered diurnal convection appears likely to the west of the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon which could spill into central PA late in the day. THe SPC MRGL risk SWO clips a portion of Warren County. The CAD pattern loses its grip Sunday night into Monday as a weak cold front presses southeast from Lake Erie. Guidance has been bullish on fog development and will continue mention in the wx grids. Fcst lows Sunday night are +10-20F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F. Temperatures are forecast to bounce on Monday with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. High pressure and low pwat air should dry out the northern tier, but nearly stationary frontal zone will maintain a chance of showers/t-storms over south central PA through Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level ridging over PA indicates warm and generally dry conditions are likely Tuesday. However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley could result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the southwest counties. The bulk of medium range guidance supports a very warm Wednesday with scattered convection, as the area briefly breaks into the warm sector ahead of a cold front pushing in from the Grt Lks. Model consensus supports a better chance for a more widespread rainfall Thursday, associated with a deepening upstream trough and wave of low pressure riding along the stalled cold front just south of PA. The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area by Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered, diurnally-driven convection Friday, along with a downward trend in temperatures. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 0630 UTC Sat, MVFR cigs have moved into the Laurels (JST and AOO) as well as portions of south central PA (CXY and THV). The low cigs will continue to expand over the next several hours, with the remaining TAF sites likely dropping to MVFR or lower by daybreak. Confidence in MVFR cigs after 11z is lowest at LNS, where much of the hires guidance shows LNS on the eastern periphery of the MVFR cloud deck. IFR conds are likely to develop first across the western airfields (BFD, JST, and AOO between 10z and 15z Sat) and then expand eastward through the day. Confidence is low in the exact timing of the low cigs. Periods of light rain will continue through the day. Southeast winds of 5-15 kts will continue through the TAF period, with gusts up to 25 kts. LLWS may become a concern from 00z-18z Sun as a southerly LLJ develops with 2kft winds 35-45 kts, strongest through north central PA. The LLJ will also produce the most widespread and heaviest rainfall during this period. Outlook... Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a slight chance of TSRA. Areas of fog poss Sun night. Mon-Wed...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Colbert/NPB ####018006158#### FXUS62 KMHX 040823 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 423 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 0400 Saturday...Ridging aloft persists through the near term with stalled front currently bisecting the FA over the Pamlico River and ample low level moisture has led to development of fog and stratus. Have opted to issue a dense fog advisory for the entire FA area through 12Z this morning. While every ob in the FA is not explicitly showing quarter mi VIS or less, the low level stratus will only help to decrease VIS. After sunrise, the fog will begin to dissipate, but the stratus will linger through much of the morning. Weak cold front will remain over ENC while becoming slightly more diffuse, but moving very little, with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Most of the FA is expected to remain dry today save for our inland zones where showers and iso tstorms associated with a shortwave traveling NNEward from the Gulf states will pass over. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s coast to mid 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 0400 Saturday...Upper level ridge axis slides offshore this evening/tonight. Once the 850mb high slides offshore, moisture content increases through the column as flow in the lower levels becomes more SSEerly off the Atlantic, increasing PWATs back over an inch. Upper level precip support by way of shortwave approaching from the W allows showers to increase in coverage through the overnight. First, the stalled front will be the focus of precip, becoming more widespread in the early morning hours. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday, and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s. Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are expected through Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 0115 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats overnight with fog/stratus in place. At best, IFR expected inland with coastal sites experiencing VLIFR VIS and CIGs. Fog is expected to dissipate by 13Z, but subVFR CIGs will linger into at least the late morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to include this in the TAFs. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by Wednesday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 0400 Saturday...Dense fog advisory has been issued for all inland waters. There is fog over portions of the coastal waters as well, but no way to verify VIS so will have to wait for daybreak to make decision on whether or not a dense fog advisory will be needed offshore. Light and variable winds early become Eerly 10-15kt this afternoon. Recent buoy data shows seas generally 1-2ft with seas building to 3ft from N to S through the day to become 2-3ft everywhere with 4ft over outer waters, highest N and E of Hatt. Showers and tstorms possible this evening into the overnight hours. Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB