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FXUS63 KGRB 030328

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

1028 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024



Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Due to recent and upcoming rainfall, rivers and streams will 

  continue to rise late this week. Some rivers are forecast to 

  remain at or reach bankfull stage.



- Light showers are possible Saturday into Saturday night, with

  more widespread shower and thunderstorms possible Tuesday into

  Wednesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024



Short Term...Tonight and Friday



Precipitation chances continue tonight, with much drier 

conditions expected on Friday.



A large area of showers associated with strong H8 WAA and a

short-wave trough will continue to lift north out of the region 

late this afternoon. Low pressure over NE IA with lift northeast 

into the forecast area this evening, and drag a weak cold front 

through the region overnight. Showers, abundant cloud cover and 

east winds have combined to maintain a stable air mass over GRB 

CWA this afternoon, though weak elevated instability (H8 LI's of 0

to -2 C) will lift into the region this evening then shift east 

as the cold front shifts east later tonight. Scattered showers 

and a few storms are expected to develop ahead of the front, 

though the general trend is for a less rainy night than was 

earlier expected. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and lower 50s.



On Friday, high pressure and a much drier air mass will move into

the forecast area. Deep mixing will promote warm temperatures

in the upper 60s to middle 70s, west winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph

(strongest in northern WI) and low relative humidity in the sandy

soil areas. Today's rain should mitigate any fire weather

concerns.



Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday



Dry high pressure will linger through Friday night, but a weak 

inverted surface trough and short-wave will bring a chance of 

showers on Saturday and Saturday evening. This is looking like a 

light precipitation event at this time.



High pressure moves back into the region Sunday into Monday, with

another round of mild temperatures and low humidity expected.



A deep upper level low over the Northern Plains will lift potent 

short-wave energy into the western Great Lakes late Monday night 

through Tuesday night, bringing good potential for a round or two

of showers and storms. The remnants of this system will linger 

near the region late in the week, with smaller chances of showers 

and storms.



&&



.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024



IFR ceilings are expected west of a IMT to DLL line overnight, 

with MVFR ceilings and scattered showers to the east. 



Skies will clear rapidly Friday morning as a surface front moves 

across the area. Once the skies clear Friday morning, good flying

weather is expected through at least Friday night.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch/Kieckbusch

AVIATION.......RDM