####018004753#### FXUS63 KGID 040851 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 351 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather expected this weekend with high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s this morning and Sunday morning. - Another strong weather system will bring increasing chances for thunderstorms to the area Monday-Monday night. During the mid-afternoon to late evening hours, there will be the potential for severe storms...very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. - Spotty low chances (20-30%) for precipitation continue in the forecast from Tuesday evening on through the work week, but confidence remains low at this point. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 This weekend... Lingering showers are expected to depart the area to the east before sunrise today. At the surface, high pressure is moving into the central and northern Plains this morning with an area of low pressure over the Pacific coast. The surface ridge will be present through the weekend, while the surface low and associated cold front will move over the Rockies by Sunday afternoon. Aloft at 500 mb, an upper trough with continue across the Plains today before an upper ridge moves over the area tonight and Sunday. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid-60s and just a bit warmer Sunday (in the mid- to upper 60s). Low temperatures will fall quite a bit under the ridge. Morning lows this morning and Sunday morning will be in the 30s and 40s. There may even be some patchy frost north and west of the tri-cities Sunday morning, but too isolated for any formal product at this point. Sunday night through Monday night... By Sunday night, the low pressure to our west will intensify, dropping a potent cold front south across the Rockies and southwestern United States. This will rotate northeast into the central Plains Monday, enhancing the mid-level jet as it pushes against a strong ridge over the Great Lakes. Models indicate thunderstorms potentially initiating over a dryline that is progged over central NE/KS Monday afternoon. With high CAPE values (2000+ J/kg, especially over the southern half of the forecast area as well as along the dryline) and very strong deep layer shear, severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday into Monday evening. There is still a question as to how far east will the dryline manage to be before storms initiate, whether it is further west in our CWA or farther east (around Highway 281). Wherever it sets up, the expectation is for very large hail (possibly 2 inches in diameter or larger) and strong wind gusts along and east of the dryline, and with higher values of SRH in the model guidance, a few tornadoes may be possible as well. Storms will potentially start out as supercells before developing into a linear system later in the event. Most model guidance has these storms pushing east of the forecast area by shortly after midnight Monday night, but the ECMWF has them linger into the early morning hours Tuesday. Monday will definitely be a day to keep both eyes on the weather and to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Tuesday and on... Tuesday through Friday, the forecast remains overall dry, but there are a few small chances (20-30%) of precipitation. Behind the trough Monday, low pressure will rotate northward into Montana and the Dakotas Tuesday and Wednesday, with another trough impacting the central Plains mid- to late week, although the exact placement of the low and associated trough remains uncertain. Pretty sure the area (or at least some portions of it) will see some precipitation during this period but uncertainty as to when remains high. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The EAR AWOS is currently OTS due to recent storms. The EAR TAF is AMD NOT SKED until the weather clears to VFR or the AWOS comes back online.. Ceilings around the area are dropping to MVFR to IFR so dropped both TAF sites to MVFR as a start. Ceilings should rise after sunrise and scatter out once the cold front moves farther away from TAF sites. Winds will be northerly overnight and a few isolated gusts into the 40-45kts could be possible. Once storms move out of the area the winds are expected to gradually taper down and look to become light this evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Beda ####018004997#### FXUS64 KLCH 040851 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 351 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A broken line of convection, with a history of producing hail, continues to traverse the coastal waters of southeast Texas at this hour. This activity was very poorly accounted for in short range guidance, wasn't depicted in previous forecasts and was, frankly, very unexpected this morning. Still, the seemingly shallow shortwave responsible appears to be losing steam as it progresses and a gradual weakening trend should continue with storms dissipating entirely by mid morning. Inland, another round of better forecasted light fog continues to develop across the region this morning where winds have become light or calm. As has been the case the last couple of morning, this should be fairly short lived after sunrise. Some of the upper level moisture presently supporting the ongoing convection in the gulf is progged to lift inland across the region today where it will interact with another weak energy wave moving across the region this afternoon initializing isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. While any storms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, precip totals should remain generally under a half inch and aren't expected to be enough to exacerbate previous or ongoing flooding across the region. A stronger shortwave and another surge of moisture will push across the region closer to the coast Sunday initializing scattered to widespread convection as it does so. Forecast QPF with this disturbance is higher than today with pockets of locally heavy rainfall having the potential to cause some localized flooding. This convection should end quickly during the evening as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast in what should be the last of the parade of MCS's seen across the area the last several days. Despite no appreciable upper level support, there will be enough residual moisture across the region Monday to allow for some isolated diurnally driven afternoon convection during the afternoon with these quickly ending Monday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Drier air aloft will finally shut off the spigot Tuesday beginning a noticeable warming trend with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s and even a few lower 90s across parts of central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas Wednesday and Thursday. Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices will be flirting with 100 for the first time since last fall. The good news is that this looks to be fairly short lived as a frontal boundary is progged to push through the region Friday advecting noticeably cooler temperatures back into the region by next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 With the exception of KARA, which has some low clouds and ceilings at MVFR conditions, the terminals are starting out at VFR levels from high level clouds. Extensive high level cloudiness as the result of convective blow-off from central/west Texas moving over the forecast area. This may help reduce cooling and help keep or delay the very low clouds and patchy fog from forming until after 04/09z. Still expect at least MVFR conditions at all terminals from the low ceilings and patchy fog. Not looking at any disturbances moving into the region tonight and with a drier airmass based on the 04/00z upper air sounding from KLCH, not expecting any shower activity overnight. On Saturday, more stable conditions look to be in store. However, still enough moisture along with daytime heating to allow for isolated showers or storms to develop and will only mention VCSH and VCTS for terminals through the day. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail through the day and much of the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 84 66 81 66 / 30 20 60 20 LCH 83 70 83 70 / 30 20 50 20 LFT 85 71 85 71 / 30 10 30 20 BPT 83 72 83 71 / 20 20 50 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66 ####018007291#### FXUS63 KDLH 040854 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 354 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to moderate rain continues through this morning and afternoon before tapering off this evening last in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. An isolated thunderstorm is possible (20% chance) near the Iron Range this afternoon. - Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass overhead tonight are expected to aid in fog and frost formation tonight. - Dry conditions Sunday giveway to a warmup near 70 F Monday when there is a 40% chance of near-critical fire weather conditions as breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in the low to mid-30% range. - The next round of rainfall begins Monday night into Tuesday, with non-severe thunderstorms most likely in northwest Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The slow moving, weak cold front that moved into the region overnight is producing an axis of low to mid-level convergent flow from the Brainerd Lakes into the Arrowhead early this morning. Combine this forcing with a southerly moist jet with Gulf air, the widespread light to locally moderate rainfall within the convergent axis has brought up to a few tenths of an inch of rainfall overnight so far. Rainfall rates and amounts will increase during the daylight morning hours for the I-35 counties in MN and US Hwy 53 counties in WI though as the mid- level frontal forcing pushes eastward within the deeper mid to upper level trough to align better with the moisture. A quarter to half-inch of rainfall is expected for those locations by late this afternoon. Frontal-associated rainfall exits the region by mid-afternoon as dry air in the mid-levels pushes into the southern half of the Northland from the west and the front exits the region. In far northern Minnesota (north of US Hwy 2), a secondary vort max drops into north-central Minnesota from the north by mid-day today. Residual wrap-around moisture (0.5" PWAT progged in guidance), mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, around 100 J/kg of MUCAPE and 20 knots of effective shear may (20% chance) support isolated thunderstorm development from Bemidji- Grand Rapids- Hibbing and northward. The most likely hazards in those thunderstorms would be very localized moderate rainfall and pea size hail. Other locations in the Arrowhead, Brainerd Lakes and Twin Ports are expected to see another period of scattered rain showers in this afternoon time period. As the secondary vort max exits the Arrowhead by mid-evening later today, dry air subsidence ends all shower chances overnight tonight. Deterministic guidance progs the 850 mb air mass from 0 to -2 C for far northern Minnesota. Combine this cold air mass, light winds under surface high pressure and residual moisture trapped in the boundary layer, there is potential (40% chance) of fog development in the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. If locations closer to the Brainerd Lakes that see precipitation end earlier today and the dry air mixes out the surface layer enough, then frost could instead form tonight for those locations. A dry day on Sunday sees temperatures rebound into the low to mid-60s across the region as surface high pressure exits the region to the east and a mid-level ridge builds overhead from the west; promoting southerly air advecting into the region beginning Sunday night. Gusty southeasterly low-level winds mix out Monday morning to create breezy conditions around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph for parts of east-central and north-central MN. Relative humidity in the low to mid-30 percent range may (40% chance) create a period of near-critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon as temperatures are forecast to peak around 70 F. The fuel guidance from land management agencies will also be monitored for input due to recent rainfall and how the spring "green up" proceeds in this early week period. Precipitation chances build Monday evening as a low pressure moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains Monday afternoon. The warm front passes over the region Monday night to create a period of likely (80% chance) widespread rainfall and possible (30% chance) thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon as the low pressure retrogrades in the Northern Plains. The best chance of non-severe thunderstorms will be in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. In all, there is a 60-70% chance of at least 1/2 inch of rainfall for northwest Wisconsin and east-central and the Arrowhead in MN. The upper-bound of isolated rainfall is 1-1.25" with a 20% chance of occurrence in localized areas of east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin Tuesday. Ensemble cluster analysis shows high confidence on the vertically stacked low pressure center remaining over the Northern Plains, which may (20-30% chance) keep the Northland in a continued wet pattern into next week as well before the deep low ejects eastward by late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A band of light to locally moderate rain persists in the Brainerd Lakes to the Arrowhead for the rest of tonight as a frontal boundary drapes over the Northland. Expect light west to southwesterly winds in north-central Minnesota west of the boundary and light and variable surface winds in northwest Wisconsin through early Saturday morning. As the responsible low pressure centered in Ontario pushes eastward, expect the better rain chances after 10Z and through 20Z for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including MVFR ceilings and visibility. Winds shift westerly and then northwesterly behind the frontal passage by later Saturday daytime. An area of scattered showers is likely (60% chance) to form behind the front along and north of US Hwy 2 in Minnesota from 17Z Sat to 01Z Sun. Steep lapse rates aloft may (10-15% chance) support an isolated thunderstorm somewhere from a BJI-INL-HIB-ELO bounded region in far northern Minnesota in that time period, but chances are much better for localized MVFR vis reductions again in these showers. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A band of persistent light to moderate rainfall today and tapering this evening may (60% chance along the South Shore and 40% chance for the North Shore) result in marine fog Saturday night into Sunday morning. No headlines are expected currently, but if dense fog does form tonight then some could be necessary. Otherwise, light winds under high pressure prevail through Sunday morning before becoming west-southwest at 10-15 knots. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy