####018006054#### FXUS63 KMPX 040905 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers this morning. Rainfall amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch expected. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Rain showers continue to slowly spread eastwards out of western Minnesota overnight. The MCS over Nebraska has taken on a more easterly track into Iowa, meaning the trend towards heavier precipitation & possible thunderstorms over southern Minnesota no longer is expected. Most locations will see between a tenth to a quarter inch of rain as the band of showers north of the convective complex migrates east across the area. A few hours of rain is expected, with the rain ending by mid-morning across central MN, late morning/early afternoon for eastern Minnesota, & by mid-afternoon for western Wisconsin. Skies will slowly clear out after the rain, so a sunny afternoon or early evening still looks salvageable for areas east of the St. Croix River. The rain and clouds will keep temperatures cool this afternoon, generally around 60 degrees. Drier, sunny, & warm weather is expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure moves over the region. High temperatures around low 70 are likely, potentially warming into the mid to upper 70s Monday with some compressional warming possible ahead of an approaching front. Winds will be relatively light on Sunday with the high overhead, but increase through the day on Monday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the approaching front. Southeasterly winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph late Monday afternoon & evening across western Minnesota, in response to the surface low deepening into the low 980s mb over the northern Plains. A band of showers an thunderstorms is expected to develop along the front extending ahead of this deepening surface low, with ensemble guidance showing a very high likelihood (>90%) of precipitation occurring across the entire area. Strong dynamics will be present with this system with surface winds gusting to 40-50 mph along of the front & bulk shear values of 50-60 kts. However, instability will be lacking this far north across the Dakotas & western Minnesota, further exacerbated by the fact that the model consensus brings the front & thunderstorms through the area late Monday night & overnight into Tuesday morning. The threat for damaging winds isn't negligible given the strong background surface winds, but for now the severe threat looks to mainly develop across the central Plains & mid- Mississippi valley. Ensemble guidance generally shows rainfall amounts between 0.5-1" across the entire area, mainly owing to the forecast quick progression of the storms across the area. Amounts over an inch are still possible if the system slows somewhat between now & Monday night. In general, thunderstorms & another soaking rain look a like a sure bet Monday night. Beyond Tuesday, the upper-air pattern remains active as the upper-level low responsible for the Monday-Tuesday system stalls out, & potential becomes cutoff over the Great Lakes. A number of weak disturbances pivot around this broad area of low pressure as a result, meaning multiple chances for generally light rain through the end of the week. Model consensus in timing any of these disturbances is low so a generic broad ~30% chance for rain exists pretty much exists for Wed-Fri. Temperatures will be cooler as well with lower heights over the region, with daytime highs generally in the low 60s. The upper- level low finally exits the Great Lakes region over the weekend, with likely a return to drier & more seasonable weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Rain showers will spread across the area this morning, impacting western MN overnight through sunrise, central & eastern MN through early to mid-morning, & western WI mid-morning into early afternoon. Predominately low-end MVFR visibility & ceilings are expected with the rain, although periods of IFR conditions are possible. MVFR ceilings will linger for a few hours after the rain ends, with ceilings eventually rising & clearing out through the afternoon. Winds will generally be northerly to northwesterly between 5-10 kts, with some gusts up to 20kts during the morning through mid-afternoon. WInds drop below 5 kts after sunset with clear skies overnight. KMSP...Rain is expected to start between 6-7 AM with visibility down to 3 miles & ceilings around 1000 ft expected. Brief IFR conditions are possible during the heaviest rain, more likely as lower ceilings as opposed to visibility. The rain will end around noon with MVFR ceilings lingering into mid-afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there). && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...ETA HYDROLOGY...CCS ####018005470#### FXUS63 KDDC 040905 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous severe weather outbreak expected Monday afternoon and evening, mainly east of a WaKeeney to Ashland line. - The greatest uncertainty regarding Monday's severe weather event is timing of the onset of dangerous storms and how far west initial high-end severe storms will develop. - Most of the NWS Dodge City area of responsibility will most likely be clear of severe weather risk by early evening Monday as storms move east deeper into central and south central Kansas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread precipitation event -- the first good soaking rain over a large portion of our forecast area in quite some time -- continued in the pre-dawn hours across much of southwest into central and south central KS. Some initial automated gauge reports were showing three-quarters to a little over an inch of rain right where we needed it most across quite a few of our counties along/west of U283 and along/south of U50. The rain will continue to pull away from our region this morning leaving in its wake a cooler air mass and remnant low cloud. The past few runs of the HRRR model have shown a bit longer period broken-overcast stratus cloud across the mid section of our forecast area (centered around DDC), keeping temperatures from rising much above the mid/upper 50s this afternoon. The latest official forecast calls for mid 60s for just about the entire forecast area, but some of this may need to be lowered if the clouds hang on longer like the latest runs of the HRRR suggest. Going into tonight and early Sunday morning, we will watch for another southern jet streak nosing into West Texas and western Oklahoma, which will foster another round of precipitation clipping our southeastern counties adjacent Oklahoma state line, which is where highest POPs will be (20-30%) in both the Tonight and Sunday 12-hr periods. Low level winds will veer around from east to southeast on Sunday as the much advertised Monday storm draws closer to the Rockies, inducing lower MSLP across Colorado late in the day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Clearly, the focus of this time frame will be Monday's impressive storm and the likelihood of a volatile severe weather outbreak across much of the Central Plains late in the day and Monday Night. Not much has changed in the overall forecast meteorological setting for Monday other than the fact that there still remains great uncertainty in when initial dryline storms will develop (early vs. mid vs. late afternoon) and how far west the dryline will be when the first storms do develop. The ECMWF shows the dryline just east of DDC at 21Z Monday with 3-h QPF in the 21-24Z beginning just east of DDC. The high-resolution ECMWF deterministic run depicts multiple county-scale streaking of QPF in a southwest to northeast manner in the 3-h QPF field, which in classic spring severe weather patterns, is the numerical weather prediction highly suggesting individual severe local storm tracks (most likely supercells). Nearly all models show a classic "sickle" shape hodograph in the 0-2km AGL layer across a large swath of the warm, moist sector in Kansas into northern Oklahoma where surface dewpoints will be in the 64 to 68F range. A dangerous severe weather outbreak, including high-end hail storms and long-lived significant tornadoes, is appearing more and more likely. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the areal coverage of 30% combined severe weather risk to include over half of the state of Kansas, including our eastern counties from Hays down to Coldwater and points east. This latest outlook also includes a large area of 10% probability of "Significant" severe weather -- defined by 75+ mph damaging wind gust, 2" or larger hail, and/or significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential). Any outdoor interests Monday afternoon and evening should have a plan of action in place in case storms threaten your activity(ies)/venues. Once we get Monday's storm out of the way, we will be entering a fairly long break in severe weather risk, perhaps going well into the following week of May 12th as cooler and drier air will encompass much of the eastern half of the country. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms at the onset of this TAF period will continue through the first several hours before moving off to the southeast. In the wake of precipitation, stratus clouds will prevail through the morning with ceiling expected to be in the MVFR category above 1000 feet. By mid-morning, stratus ceiling will scatter out as high pressure builds south. Widespread VFR flight category will then prevail from late morning/midday through the remainder of the TAF period with north winds gradually decreasing to around 10 knots by mid to late afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Umscheid ####018005685#### FXUS63 KEAX 040908 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 408 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this morning. A few strong storms may be possible. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and locally heavy rain will all be possible. - The active weather pattern continues into Tuesday and Wednesday, with strong to severe storms possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A line of thunderstorms is ongoing from southwestern Iowa, through extreme NW Missouri, and into eastern Kansas as a shortwave trough and associated cold front are working their way from the Central Plains into the Midwest. As of 3 am, the most robust storms are located just east northeast of Manhattan KS (reports of dime sized hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph) with these moving to the northeast. SPC mesoanalysis shows a corridor of 250 to 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE over far eastern KS into far western/NW MO, with up to 1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Up to 35 knots of 0 to 6 km wind shear is in place over NE KS and NW MO, with weaker shear elsewhere. This suggests that the most likely location for any stronger storms would be across NE KS and NW MO. Total rainfall amounts should range from 0.5" to 0.75" in this area. Storms should weaken east they continue eastward later this morning, and convection allowing models keep the KC metro mostly dry this morning. New development of showers and storms is possible ahead of the cold front this afternoon from Kirksville southward toward Columbia, with these exiting the county warning area by late afternoon. Cloud cover will likely linger into the mid to late afternoon hours, with winds turning northwesterly and eventually northerly behind the cold front. The timing of the front will create a relatively large temperature gradient for high temperatures today, with highs only forecast to reach the lower 60s over NW Missouri but highs as warm as the mid to even upper 70s toward mid Missouri where the front will likely not arrive until mid afternoon. By tomorrow afternoon, a 548 dam closed low at 500 mb moves into the Grand Basin region of Nevada and Utah, with associated troughing moving into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, a more subtle shortwave trough develops over the ArkLaTex region and sends the stalled cold front over the Arkansas Ozarks northward. This could generate some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, especially for areas south of Interstate 70, although the better chances should stay south of our region toward the Interstate 44 corridor. As we head into Monday, a potent mid/upper trough comes across the Southern Rockies, undergoing lee cyclogenesis and progressively becoming more negatively tilted as it ejects across the Central and Northern Plains. Models have come into better agreement, suggesting a deep surface low developing over the Northern High Plains, with a warm front extending east/west over NE/IA and a dryline extending southward through west- central KS and Oklahoma by Monday afternoon. With good moisture return, moderate to high instability, and excellent deep layer shear thanks to a 50 to 70 knot mid level jet, supercells with highly impactful severe weather of all types appears likely Monday afternoon and evening across portions of southern NE/central KS/central OK. It seems likely that these storms will grow upscale into a severe squall line/MCS as they progress eastward toward our region on Monday evening. Prime time for our region appears to be late evening into the overnight/early morning hours of Tuesday. If any storms do manage to develop out ahead of the expected squall line, all severe hazards would be very much in play. However, if it is a squall line, damaging wind gusts and potentially some embedded QLCS mesovortex tornadoes would likely be the main concern. Additionally, widespread moderate rain is likely, with rainfall totals on the order of around 1 inch with locally higher amounts possible, potentially yielding more flash flooding and river flooding. The active pattern continues on Tuesday and Wednesday as the closed mid level low is progged to remain over the Northern Plains with southwesterly flow aloft over our region. With moderate instability and strong deep layer wind shear hanging around Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening, strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible. As such, SPC has highlighted portions of our county warning area within a 15% risk for severe storms for both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Currently VFR with around 10 knot winds out of the southeast at all terminals. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals by around 10 to 11z this morning, with these exiting by around 14z. A few isolated showers may linger through late morning. MVFR CIGs arrive with the showers, with these continuing through around 22z this afternoon, after which VFR CIGs should return. Winds shift to northwesterly and eventually northerly behind a cold front this morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW ####018007988#### FXUS63 KGRB 040910 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 410 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected later this morning into this evening, with additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. - Low clouds and fog, locally dense, possible across parts of central and north-central WI late tonight into early Sunday. - A few rivers will remain at or reach bankfull stage this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Sunday Main forecast concerns will be pinning down the timing of rain today into this evening, storm chances, fog/frost potential and cloud/temp trends. Today...a dry start to the day is expected with mid and high clouds spreading across the region. Clouds will thicken and lower from west to east, as a shortwave, low pressure and cold front approach. An area of showers associated with these features (and possible weakening MCV?) will arrive as a LLJ aids in moisture transport back into the area and we get into the RRQ of an upper jet. Still some slight timing differences, but most of central and north-central WI should see the rain by 18-19z, with the band working east and weakening across the area through the afternoon. Additional showers and a few storms look to develop across eastern WI in the afternoon ahead of the front. Models have trended higher with rain amounts, with some CAMs showing over 0.75" in parts of central and northern WI. While the PWATs do climb to between 1.00-1.25", think the high amounts are a little ambitious as the band will be moving rather quickly. Ensembles/NBM, along with WPC, more in the 0.10-0.40" range which seems more reasonable for most spots. Instability will be tough to come by due to clouds, but a narrow ribbon of instability (SBCAPE 200-500 J/kg)is still forecast to develop/advect into eastern WI this afternoon. This will keep the chance for a few non-severe storms going through around sunset. If storms can form during peak heating, lapse rates do steepen for a time, so a strong storm would be possible with some small hail. Not too much wind to bring down from aloft, but a weak inverted-V profile could aid in a brief gusty winds. Highs will be coolest where the clouds/rain arrive first, with upper 50s and lower 60s expected across parts of central and north central WI. Further east, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. Cooler readings are expected near Lake MI as onshore winds are expected. Models are again hinting at some clouds/fog across Lake Michigan as dewpoints climb ahead of the front. Little to no fog was observed yesterday (with only a little over the far southern part of the lake), and with similar moisture and water temps, would think fog chances are low. But low clouds are more likely and will add some extra clouds over eastern WI, but will hold off on any fog mention for now. Will need to monitor the area of low clouds/fog over MI and see how it behaves as it works westward. Tonight...the rain showers and isolated storms will exit east of the area by midnight. Recent rains, decreasing winds, and at least partial clearing skies should allow for fog development, mainly across central and north-central WI. While the the HREF is currently showing a 20-40% chance for visibilities under a mile, it is similar to what it showed yesterday when fairly widespread dense fog developed just to our west. Have added fog for much of central and north-central WI after midnight. Lows look to drop into the upper 30s and 40s for most spots. But if clouds clear a little quicker across parts of central WI, we could see temps quickly drop into the mid 30s. Frost/freeze headlines have begun from Marathon Co. southward, so a frost advisory may be needed if temps trend a little colder. Sunday...dry conditions will prevail as high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Lingering low clouds and some fog is expected in the morning, especially across central and north- central WI. Some daytime cu are expected in the later morning and afternoon due to lingering low level moisture. Winds look to be just light enough for a lake breeze to develop across far eastern WI in the afternoon. 850mb temps drop back to around 3-6C, which will support highs mainly in the 60s to near 70. RHs look to drop into the 30s in the sandy soil regions, but with the recent wet weather, continued green-p and lack of gusty winds, the fire weather threat will be minimal. Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday Dry start to the extended period Sunday night through most of Monday with a ridge of high pressure over the region. Deep mixing to around 4000ft Monday afternoon could lead to slightly elevated fire weather conditions with RHs falling to around 30 percent and southeast winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Fire weather concerns will be greatest across the sandy soil regions of northern and central WI where green up has not fully occurred yet. The remainder of next week will be dominated by an initially well organized cyclone moving into the northern Plains Tuesday. Rain may begin to push into the area as early as Monday night as a warm air advection regime sets up bringing in a surge of deeper moisture with PWAT values around 1.2-1.3". Embedded thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability increases, however, morning rain and cloud cover along with easterly winds off the lake and bay could limit the intensity of any storms that do develop. Confidence in any storms becoming severe is low at this time, however, there is still ample time for the forecast to change. In terms of rainfall amounts the long term grand ensemble (GEFS, EPS, and GEPS) shows a 30-60% for over 0.5" of QPF Monday night to Tuesday night. Periods of showers and storms are expected Wednesday through Friday as the aforementioned cyclone slowly shifts east and weakens. The disorganized nature of this weakening system makes specific forecast details difficult to pin down. For now expect lots of clouds and periods of rain along with a few storms through the second half of next week. With the recent and forecast rainfall many area rivers and streams will likely continue near or at bank full through next week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Expect VFR conditions to prevail through midday Saturday, with patchy mid/high clouds expected into early Saturday. Thickening and lowering clouds are expected in NC/C WI as showers arrive toward midday and C/NE WI Saturday afternoon. Some thunderstorms are possible, but chances are low enough to leave out of the TAFs. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR Saturday afternoon as the showers arrive, then improve back to VFR Saturday evening as the showers end and skies scatter out. Considered the possibility of patchy fog overnight, but the air mass was well mixed this afternoon (warm temps and low dew points leading to large dew point depressions) and boundary layer winds will be increasing to 20 to 25 kts late tonight. Models are hinting at some low clouds coming off Lake Michigan (near MTW) Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to mention a ceiling at this time. Light SE surface winds are expected overnight, then moderate SE-S later Saturday morning and SW Saturday afternoon turning NW Saturday evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch/GK AVIATION.......Kurimski