####018008135#### FXUS61 KRNK 040916 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 516 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will move across the Mid- Atlantic Region this weekend resulting in mostly cloudy skies, widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, ranging from a quarter of an inch, to as much as one inch. Temperatures will be lower today compared to Friday, winds from an easterly direction. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Cool easterly wind today. Below normal high temperatures. 2. Widespread light to moderate showers through tonight with potential for 0.25 to 1.00 of rain. Slight chance thunderstorms. Cloudy skies observed across the entire forecast area this morning along with patchy light rain and rain showers. This will generally be the theme through tonight as lift associated with an upper level trough persists across the region. Daytime heating may provide enough CAPE to produce a few thunderstorms, but not expecting anything severe per cool easterly wind flow within the boundary layer. Models are hit and miss on the heavier QPF, advertising a large deviation in rainfall amounts, the SREF Plumes for many of our climate stations ranging from a quarter of an inch to as much as 1.5 inches through 8AM Sunday. The spread in the model data reflects the showery nature of the precip, but do think we partake in at least a quarter inch of much needed rain over the next 24 hours. Anything above that is a bonus. Wind flow today and tonight will be out of the east. This combined with mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures muted today, down 15 degrees compared to Friday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Wedge of cool/damp air begins to erode slowly on Sunday as a strong short wave approaches from the southwest. 2) Warmer Monday with increasing chances for thunderstorms, The wedge of much cooler air that spreads into the region early Saturday will begin to erode slowly by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will moderate back into the 70s for most areas except perhaps the far northeastern/northern portions of the CWA. Short wave ridging ahead of a vigorous short wave lifting northeast from the MidSouth will also help to warm conditions across the region by Sunday afternoon. Spotty, mostly light precipitation can be expected again Sunday, especially during the morning. By afternoon, enough instability should be present across most of the CWA for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially along/west of I-77. This disturbance and increasing amplitude of the upper flow/namely ridging in the eastern U.S. will help to lift the backdoor front/baroclinic zone back north toward the PA/MD/WV line for the first part of next week. Consequently, precipitation should become a bit more spotty and less organized going into Tuesday. Cool temperatures Sunday mostly in the 60s to lower 70s will moderate back into the 70s and 80s by Tuesday as heights rise aloft and the baroclinic zone lifts back north. This will in turn allow for more sunshine with breaks in the clouds more prevalent than during the Sun-Mon time frame. During the period of this forecast, severe weather is not expected with weak dynamics and increased ridging aloft. Rainfall amounts in the Sun-Tue time frame should average around 1/2 inch, which given the antecedent dry conditions is not going to cause any real flooding issues at this time. /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Saturday... A rather active weather period is expected during this time frame. To begin the period, look for quite warm conditions as the upper flow amplifies in response to deep troughing in the western/central U.S. An initial short wave will lift north of the area by Tuesday, leaving behind a summerlike air mass over the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. 850mb temperatures will reach their warmest levels of the year so far with a pocket of +20C air developing across the Shenandoah and Roanoke Valleys for Wednesday into Thursday. The baroclinic/frontal zone will lift north of the area Tuesday as this ridging pattern evolves. This will shunt the main storm track to our northwest with any significant convection remaining mainly to our west and north through Wednesday By Thursday, steady progressing of the central U.S. trough in combination with it phasing with a northern stream short wave will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Convective parameters suggest that adequate dynamics and moisture will be present for strong thunderstorms and a few severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Thursday. A strong cold front advancing into the region from the northwest will also bring good forcing. The limiting factor for a more significant threat of severe thunderstorms is very warm air aloft yielding weak lapse rates. The general pattern Thursday was also discussed with SPC. Please reference their Day4-8 discussion for further details on the potential severe weather threat for Thursday, which at this point is uncertain but certainly non- zero. Substantially cooler air spreads into the region behind the cold front for Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will be well into the 80s ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday, cooling to just the 60s for Friday into the weekend. Minimum temperatures will dip back into the 30s and 40s by the weekend as well. Breezy conditions will add a definite chill to the weekend weather. Finally, it won't necessarily be dry going into the weekend as several models suggest that additional short waves could ride along the baroclinic zone, located just to our south at this point, and keep some threat of rain in our forecast going into the weekend. /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate to High Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Cloud bases are lowering from the east. A cool easterly wind off the Atlantic Ocean will bring marine air as far west as the Blue Ridge resulting in a low IFR Cig today along with some partial ridge obscurations. Patchy light rain this morning will become more showery in nature during the day with light to moderate showers becoming widespread for the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm threat appears too low to include in the TAFs attm but do think some of the more robust convective cells will contain lightning. The easterly wind over the area is shallow, observed from the surface up to about 3000 feet AGL. Above 3000 feet winds are out of the southwest...the winds above 3Kft providing the steering current for any deep convection...storm cell movement from SW- NE. Extended Aviation Outlook... SHRA/TSRA with periods of DZ, BR, and MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions continue after 18Z Sunday. More diurnally driven -SHRA/TSRA are expected Monday through Wednesday. This will bring periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be SSW and gusty at times. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...PM ####018006024#### FXUS65 KVEF 040916 CCA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 217 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A potent storm system dropping down from the Pacific Northwest will move across the region today and Sunday bringing widespread strong winds and much cooler temperatures. High elevation snow in the southern Sierra Saturday will spread across parts of southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday leading to a dusting of snow in the mountains. Improving conditions are expected Monday though temperatures will stay a little below normal much of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Through Monday night. Anomalously deep and cold low for early May situated off the Pac NW coast early this morning. Shield of extensive cloudiness is moving into northern California and northwest Nevada, while precipitation is confined to western Oregon/Washington. Leeside surface pressure falls across northern and central Nevada today ahead of the deep low will induce a tightening pressure gradient leading to strong southerly winds across the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert. Downward momentum transfer of 35 knot to 55 knot winds at H7 will help in the development of 50 to 60 mph gusts in parts of Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye and western Clark County this afternoon. Elsewhere, gusts will mostly range between 40 and 50 mph. The period of strongest winds across parts of southern Inyo, southern Nye, Clark and northwest San Bernardino Counties will occur tonight into Sunday morning. Specifically in and within the lee of the Spring Mountains/Red Rock Canyon that timeframe looks to be midnight through 9 am Sunday. HiResW-NMM cross section through Red Rock Canyon and the LV Valley indicates potential 55 knot to 75 knot winds surfacing within Red Rock Canyon late this evening with the downslope component weakening after 7 am Sunday. Here in Las Vegas, surface winds will finally start to diminish Sunday afternoon while it will remain windy across Mohave and San Bernardino Counties through late Sunday afternoon. Am making no changes to our existing products. But with that said, the Owens Valley and LV Valley bears watching due to potential downslope winds which creates a higher probability of wind gusts exceeding 58 mph or reaching warning levels. Temperatures will stay warm today with dramatic cooldown Sunday dropping as much as 20 degrees for some spots. Regarding precipitation. Most of the showers will get hung up in the southern Sierra through this evening. As the deep low makes it further into the Great Basin light showers will break out primarily across south central Nevada tonight and Sunday. There is a chance for a light dusting of snow as far south as the Spring Mountains. Forecast of 2" of new snow at Aspendell in the southern Sierra consistent with forecast 24 hours ago. Less than 1" expected in some of the higher valley floors of central Nye and northern Lincoln Counties. Sunday night and Monday. As the trough moves east precipitation will come to an end early Sunday evening. Some breezes will exist into Monday while temperatures start to recover. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. The area will be under a mostly zonal flow with a touch of a NW component through much, if not all, of the work week as persistent troughing remains just to our north. At the surface, this results in breezy afternoons with highs roughly 3-8 degrees below normal across the area. We'll remain dry as the troughing to our north has very little moisture to work with. PoPs stay below 10% through Friday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light southerly-to-southwesterly winds will begin picking up around mid-morning and will continue to increase throughout the day with 30 to 40 knot wind guts expected this afternoon and evening. Vicinity blowing dust from the dry lake beds southwest of the Las Vegas Valley will have the potential to cause reductions in slant-wise visibility, but there is currently low confidence/probability whether or not it will cause visibility reductions at the surface. When looking at the potential for an AWW, the latest HREF has a 10% to 20% chance wind gusts in excess of 48 knots from 03 UTC to 06 UTC Saturday. Should this come to fruition, these gusts would likely be from a more west-southwesterly direction due to downsloping off of the Spring Mountains. Winds will gradually decrease and eventually turn northwest on Sunday afternoon as the front moves through the area. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...The Colorado River Valley and the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will see south-southwesterly winds pick up around mid-morning with 30 to 40 knot wind gusts continuing into the evening hours. KDAG will favor a more westerly direction with wind gusts jumping into the 30 to 40 knot range later this morning/early this afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours. Light and variable winds will pick up and swing to the south-southeast around mid-morning with 30 to 40 knot wind gusts continuing into the evening hours. Showers are expected to develop in the crest of the Sierra this afternoon and will likely blow over into the Owens Valley into the vicinity of the KBIH terminal area. There is a 20% to 40% chance that the precipitation may actually make it to the terminal; should this happen, precipitation will be of light intensity. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pierce LONG TERM...Salmen AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018006031#### FXUS65 KBOU 040917 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 317 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and storms across the eastern plains this afternoon into tonight. - Warmer and windy on Sunday. - Periods of snow showers in the mountains late Sunday night through mid week. There could be travel impacts for the Monday morning commute along the I-70 Mountain Corridor. - Highs winds possible in the mountains and foothills Monday into Tuesday. - Across the plains, expect very windy conditions Monday and Tuesday with critical fire conditions across southeast Elbert and southern Lincoln counties. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 243 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 GOES-18 CIRA Geocolor displays mostly clear skies this morning with a few lingering low clouds along the urban corridor. This should quickly dissipate this morning. A short-term upper level ridge pattern will occur over northeastern Colorado today. Surface CAPE values remain weak less than 100 J/kg and focused near areas south I- 70 this afternoon. Without much forcing and meager mid-level moisture, isolated to scattered showers are possible through this evening mainly for South Park and the southern foothills. Any isolated thunderstorm that develops should remain non-severe. Partly cloudy skies are expected by late afternoon. High temperatures sit near normal today. This evening, southeasterly flow increases across the plains. Winds could produce wind gusts up to 35 mph overnight tonight. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... Issued at 243 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 A storm system will move into the Great Basin on Sun with increasing SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, sfc low pres will intensify from central WY into ern CO, with stg SSE low level flow across the plains. This will lead to very windy conditions over the plains with gusts up to 50 mph thru the aftn. As far as precip chances, there will be some instability in the aftn to produce widely sct showers over the higher terrain. Across the plains, there will be a capping inversion which will inhibit tstm development. Highs will be warmer on Sun as readings rise into the mid to upper 70s across most of the plains. The only exception will be over the far ern areas where readings may only reach the upper 60s. For Sun night into Mon, the storm system will move quickly ENE into ern WY by Mon aftn. There will be a decent shot of QG ascent ahead of the system late Sun night into early Mon. Thus this will bring a round of snow especially to the nrn mtns north of I-70 with advisory amounts possible. Elsewhere, as the main shot of QG ascent moves across the plains Mon morning there will be a a chc of showers and possibly a tstm. Meanwhile, rather stg downward descent will quickly spread across the area by midday with a mtn wave developing. Cross-barrier flow will increase to 50 kts by late morning into the aftn hours, so there will be a potential for high winds across the mtns and foothills. Across the plains, a bora type front will move across by midday with very windy conditions thru the aftn hours as well. As far as highs, readings will drop back in the lower to mid 60s across nern CO. Looking ahead to Mon night into Tue, a strong storm system will be over the nrn Plains with rather stg WNW flow aloft over the area. Cross-sections show moisture increasing overnight in the mtns so there will likely be additional orographic snowfall thru Tue. Across the plains, it will remain dry and windy with highs in the 60s. Once again there will be some potential for high winds Mon night in the mtns and foothills as cross-barrier flow remains around 50 kts. By Tue night into Wed, the storm system will remain over the nrn high Plains with a disturbance moving across. Thus, will continue to see a good chc of snow in the mtns. Across the plains, will keep in a slight chc of showers on Wed. For Wed night into Thu, the storm system over the nrn Plains is fcst to split as one piece of energy moves ESE while another piece moves across the area. In addition, a secondary shot of cooler air will move into the region as well. Overall, not sure how all of this will evolve this far out, but have maintained a chc of precip across much of the area on Thu with below normal temps. On Fri, based on current data, it appears a cool an unsettled pattern will remain in place as a weak upper level trough continues across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southeast winds should continue through Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers will occur west of all terminals along the higher terrain, but it is possible a shower or two could spread into KBJC by Saturday evening. Models have favored this outcome thus including a VCSH between 00-02Z. There is lower confidence in this outcome for KAPA and KDEN due to unfavorable conditions for thunderstorm development thus kept it out of the TAF for now. Additionally, winds increase this afternoon gusting between 20-27kts briefly from 21-22Z until 00Z. Drainage winds are unlikely by Saturday night and should remain south. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Winds will increase across the plains on Sunday with gusts up to 50 mph, however humidity levels will be above 20%. For Monday and Tuesday, very windy conditions will continue across the plains. The most likely area for critical fire conditions will be over southeast Elbert and southern Lincoln counties. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...RPK AVIATION...AD FIRE WEATHER...RPK ####018007132#### FXUS64 KHUN 040918 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 418 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Nocturnal convection will continue to spread eastward to the east of the I-65 corridor early this morning, with this activity occurring within a moist southerly flow regime in the lower troposphere between a ridge of high pressure along the Atlantic Seaboard and an area of low pressure lifting northeastward across KS. Although deeper lift associated with a shortwave trough (currently crossing the TN Valley in prevailing WSW flow aloft) has contributed to a bit more thunderstorm activity than originally anticipated, weak mid-level WSW winds (10-20 knots) will hinder any risk for storm organization, with lightning and brief heavy rainfall the main impacts. Patchy/locally dense fog will also gradually develop through sunrise given the very moist nature of the boundary layer, but observational data does not warrant an SPS at this time. Present indications are that the remnants of the overnight precipitation regime will shift slowly northeastward and out of the region between 12-15Z, warranting a sharp gradient in POPs from SW-to-NE across the CWFA. Beyond this timeframe, weak subsidence is anticipated as the shortwave trough advances further northeastward into the central Appalachians, with only isolated- widely scattered showers and storms possible during the afternoon hours. Partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to reach the l-m 80s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The general synoptic pattern across the TN Valley will remain largely unchanged tonight and Sunday, with light/moist southerly flow expected to persist in the low-levels beneath a zonal flow regime aloft. There are some indications that another weak mid- level vort max (perhaps convectively-induced) may track eastward across our region late this evening, and with some agreement from the 00Z CAMs on an increase in convection, we have included a low- medium chance POP between 3-9Z. This activity will in all likelihood exit the region prior to sunrise on Sunday, with a warm/humid but dry start to the day followed by development of isolated afternoon showers and storms as temps rise into the m-u 80s. Over the course of the day tomorrow, another shortwave trough is predicted to lift northeastward from the Red River Valley of OK/TX within the flow around a strong upper low tracking east- northeastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Due to the motion of the upper low, a well-defined lee cyclone will evolve across eastern MT throughout the day, forcing a warm front to spread northeastward across the TN Valley late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Deep lift generated by the warm front and approaching shortwave trough will produce a fairly widespread coverage of rain and storms that may begin across our western zones as early as 00Z Monday before spreading further northeastward. Although mid-level winds will back to SW and increase to 15-25 knots preceding the arrival of the trough, shear does not appear strong enough at this point to warrant concern for organized storm structures. Most NWP guidance suggests that the effective warm front will lie across the OH Valley by 12Z Monday, with remnants of nocturnal precipitation expected to spread northeastward and out of the region during the late morning. A 500-mb shortwave ridge to the east of the upper low (discussed in the paragraph above) will translate across the region, yielding a lower but non-zero coverage of showers and storms Monday afternoon and night. Low- level SW flow will strengthen in the wake of the warm front, with dewpoints expected to rise into the u60s-l70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Latest long range guidance from the global models suggests that the presence of a mid-level ridge will continue to limit the coverage of warm sector showers and thunderstorms across the TN Valley on Tuesday, with a breezy, warm and humid day expected as highs rise into the m-u 80s. However, by Tuesday night, we will need to keep a close eye on thunderstorm activity to our northwest that should develop along a Pacific cold front/dryline that will surge eastward ahead of an occluding cyclone across eastern MT/western ND. There are some indications that frontal convection across southern portions of MO/IL may evolve into a broken MCS Tuesday evening that could potentially track southeastward into the local area early Wednesday morning and may feature a risk for strong-severe storms as mid-level westerly flow will likely increase to 35-40 knots prior to its arrival in our region. However, a more reasonable scenario is that the initial MCS will not reach our region due to the development of another weak area of low pressure across the southern High Plains that should eject northeastward into MO by Wednesday evening. In this case, redevelopment of thunderstorms would occur along the path of the surface low (across MO) early Wednesday afternoon that could potentially grow upscale into a larger and more significant MCS that would reach our region late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. This convective system would be entering an environment of even stronger deep-layer shear (with WSW flow aloft of 45-50 knots) and moderate-high levels of instability driven by surface dewpoints in the lower 70s beneath a plume of steep lapse rates aloft. Thus, a notable risk of severe thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging winds may materialize during this timeframe. A third and final round of storms may occur on Thursday night/Friday morning prior to the eventual passage of a cold front that should bring a drier/cooler airmass into the region by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across the area, with a general motion to the NE around 15kt. Additional development is possible over the next few hours, as well. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected. Before daybreak Sat, there is a risk of patchy fog forming in/near areas that recently received heavy rainfall. Otherwise daytime heating and resultant instability could allow more showers and storms to form Sat afternoon. Given uncertainty on development and where the activity will impact, have a VCTS for the latter portion of the TAF at both terminals. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...70/DD AVIATION...RSB ####018005684#### FXUS66 KOTX 040918 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 218 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... It will be mild today with highs in the 60s and low 70s while bands of rain spread into central Washington. Rain will be widespread on Sunday as a slow moving low moves through the Pacific Northwest. As the low pulls out of the region, look for cool, showery, and brisk conditions Monday and Tuesday. Warmer and drier weather will likely arrive late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday afternoon: The start of the weekend will be mild, cloudy, and breezy thanks to a low pressure moving towards northern California. Along with that, rain chances increase in central Washington through the morning into the afternoon hours. Eventually chances for measurable rain spread into Eastern Washington this evening and overnight. Model disagreement is quite high still for the wrap around precipitation band Sunday morning in eastern Washington. There is a 60% chance of greater than 0.10 of an inch of rain from midnight through noon Sunday. 3-7 am Sunday appears the most favorable time for the deformation band to move through Spokane, although some models indicate a light rain lasting through much of the day. Unsurprisingly, ensemble members with less rain warm temperatures up slightly faster during the morning. There is a 75% chance of temperatures not exceeding 45 degrees through noon Sunday. While the rain will be beneficial for dryland farmers in the Palouse and West Plains after a dry April, outdoor activities on Sunday will be dampened by the rain and cooler temperatures. Monday will feature cooler temperatures compared to the norm, accompanied by showers and localized windy conditions. The departing low pressure system from the weekend will set up a tight westerly pressure gradient across the Cascades on Monday, resulting in gusty winds. According to ECMWF ensembles, wind gusts up to 35 mph are anticipated on Monday, with 50-70 percent of ensemble members forecasting gusts of 35 mph or higher across eastern Washington. Monday night through Tuesday night: Brisk and showery. Northwest flow aloft prevails over the Inland NW as the slow moving low tracks into MT and a secondary weaker trough brushes in from the Pacific. Showery precipitation decreases Monday evening while brisk westerly winds persist through the night. A surface trough over eastern WA keeps pressure gradients packed, leading to wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible in the lee of the Cascades and Palouse. The winds relax slightly Tuesday morning and shift from the west to northwest by the afternoon hours with higher gusts returning again across central WA into the Palouse. Showery conditions redevelop Tuesday afternoon and evening although with less coverage and mainly for extreme eastern WA into north ID. Snow level take a dip during the overnight hours with light snow accumulations in the central Cascades, Blue mountains, and Panhandle mountains. It will on the cool side with daytime temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. db Wednesday through Saturday: Drier and warmer. An upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and builds inland. Still can anticipate a threat of showers over north Idaho for Wednesday, but trending less coverage for Thursday as drier and more stable conditions arrive. Winds decrease and shift from the north and east. Under lighter winds, the more noticeable change will be warmer temperatures reaching the 60s to lower 70s on Thursday and in the 70s to lower 80s by Friday into Saturday. /rfox. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Mid to high level clouds are spreading across the region. Light rain is expected across the Cascades by the morning hours on Saturday with rain at KEAT by 14-16Z with ceilings as low as 3 kft. South and easterly winds will pick up with the front approaching. KPUW-KGEG-KCOE will see the potential for gusts up to 25 kts into Saturday morning with the easterly pressure gradient tightening up. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through Saturday evening except for at KEAT where confidence is moderate. The HREF/NBM model guidance for KEAT indicates a 60% chance ceilings lower down to 3 kft. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 70 42 50 39 58 36 / 10 60 90 80 40 20 Coeur d'Alene 68 45 51 39 53 36 / 10 30 90 80 70 30 Pullman 66 39 46 37 52 35 / 10 90 90 80 60 40 Lewiston 72 46 56 43 61 41 / 10 90 90 80 60 30 Colville 68 42 59 38 59 34 / 20 20 60 80 70 40 Sandpoint 66 45 53 39 55 38 / 10 20 70 80 80 50 Kellogg 66 46 50 40 49 38 / 10 20 70 90 90 60 Moses Lake 69 45 61 41 62 38 / 30 70 100 40 10 0 Wenatchee 63 49 62 44 59 41 / 70 60 90 30 20 10 Omak 68 48 69 43 62 38 / 30 30 40 40 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$