####018004540#### FXUS63 KPAH 030441 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1141 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures continue, with humidity increasing through the weekend. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with a very good chance of rain and storms tonight. - Scattered storms over the weekend lead into a potentially active period of several days Monday night through Wednesday where it appears at least some potential will exist for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 The weather is doing a fantastic summer impression on this early May day. Highs are working well into the mid 80s with dewpoints around 60 degrees. Atmospheres fairly stable right now based on model soundings and cu behavior on satellite, but a slug of deeper moisture/warm advection and slight jet level ascent will work this way later this afternoon into this evening bringing with it a good chance for stratiform rain and convective showers and a thunderstorm or two. With PWATs stretching to 1.6 to 1.7 inches rainfall rates will be efficient/heavy but our ground conditions are such that flooding still appears unlikely unless multiple storms really root in over the same area. The stronger WAA/isentropic lift ends by early morning as north winds scour out low level moisture just a little. I think we will be more dry than not during the day but with just a kiss of jet level ascent and humidity kept pops in, increasing with daytime heating. More warm air and moisture advection moves in in the evening and showers and storms will likely accompany this. A sharp shortwave trough then approaches Sunday. Low-level moisture recovers with dewpoints in the upper 60s. MLCAPE values rise to about 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is marginal for severe and low level shear holds off until after large scale ascent appears less favorable. It does look plausible a severe storm or two may form Sunday afternoon and evening given that mid-level lapse rates may overachieve from model consensus given the sharpness of the shortwave. Net height rises then build in behind the shortwave which will likely keep us on the drier side Monday despite a surge in low level moisture as a powerful and large negatively-tilted shortwave trough moves in off the Rocky Mountains. This will mark an extended period where the larger synoptic scale pattern will be favorable for heavy rain and severe weather. Shear improves Monday night with dewpoints approaching 70 degrees. Strong low and deep layer shear is in place Tuesday with dewpoints remaining around 70 degrees. There are still some differences in the GFS/ECMWF handling of the upper trough over this region which would have large factors in the overall severe weather potential for the area. Ongoing convection and potential modification of the airmass would be a concern too, but we will absolutely need to watch Tuesday for an all-hazards severe potential given the day to day model trends. General troughiness persists and things look to sort of re-load for Wednesday with strong deep and low level shear and ample instability. Thursday the GFS clears out the area where the ECMWF holds off on FROPA. Similar to 12-24 hours ago picking out exactly if and when things will come together and how convection will evolve day to day is just impossible at this range for the Monday Night to Wednesday timeframe, but it has the look of a pattern that could produce a multi-day severe weather and heavy rain threat with subtle shortwave troughs working in over very rich low level moisture. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Intermittent rain showers are expected through the rest of the night at each TAF site before shifting east of the area by mid morning. It is still possible that some lightning may occur, but the chances are low enough to leave out of this issuance. Additional isolated showers and storms may develop Friday afternoon, impacting mainly the eastern sites. Chance are fairly low of that happening at this time. Some MVFR/IFR conditions are expected later tonight into Friday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...KC ####018003289#### FXUS63 KOAX 030441 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1141 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected Friday night. There is a marginal risk of severe storms (5 to 10 percent chance) south of a line from Albion, NE to Harlan, IA. - There is another chance of severe thunderstorms (15 to 30 percent chance) Monday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Clouds will continue to decrease this afternoon with winds diminishing through the evening. Generally clear skies are expected overnight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Most of the day Friday should be pleasant with increasing clouds and highs in the lower 70s with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. This will be head of the next round of storms that is expected to move into the region Friday night and linger through early Saturday morning. 12z CAMs were a little more aggressive with the storm potential Friday night, thus coordinated with SPC to increase the marginal severe risk a little more with the late morning day 2 update, to now include areas south of a line from Albion, NE to Harlan, IA, where there appears to be a greater threat for some of the stronger storms. Additional rainfall Friday night looks to be in the one quarter to three quarters of an inch. Low temperatures Friday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. There could be lingering showers Saturday morning along/east of the Missouri river, but that should end and push east of the area by 15z. The remainder of the day Saturday should be dry with northwesterly flow, but with cooler temperatures in the mid 60s. The blend does have some some small pops along the NE/KS border late Sunday night into Sunday. This appears to far north based on 12z operational models, so believe most of Sunday should be dry with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Precip chances begin to increase Sunday night ahead of the next upper trough, but really, the best chances for precip will come Monday afternoon and night as the next strong front moves into the region. Pops increase to 70% during this time, when SPC indicates we'll have the next best chance for severe storms. Best forecast appears to be 4pm through midnight, with all modes of severe weather again possible. Definitely another day that the region will need to remain weather aware. Tuesday and Wednesday looks mostly dry, although the blend has some spotty precip chances Wednesday, and then we could see some spotty showers on Thursday with a northwesterly surface flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Some fog formation appears likely overnight with KOMA being the most probable terminal location to be affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into Friday evening, prior to thunderstorms moving into the area from the west. Light southeast winds are forecast to increase to 12-14 kt by late morning or early afternoon on Friday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Mead ####018007235#### FXUS64 KFWD 030442 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1142 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Saturday/ An active pattern is expected to continue across the Southern Plains into the weekend with periodic storm chances through Saturday. At this hour, a cluster of thunderstorms extends from near Hillsboro south toward Lampasas and these should survive for at least another hour or two given an unstable airmass. The main threat will be some locally strong wind gusts and hail along with very heavy rainfall through the rest of the overnight hours. For the remainder of the night, storm chances will be highest just downstream of the current convection with low probabilities of additional storms developing. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place on Friday characterized by high theta-e air, weak capping, and generally weak low level wind fields. The main driver for additional convection will be a potential lingering outflow boundary from current thunderstorms ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma. The high-res guidance suggests that some of this convection will spread south overnight and into our northeast counties by morning with an outflow boundary pushing south toward the I-20 corridor into the afternoon. In the absence of any strong forcing for ascent, this remnant boundary or boundaries from tonight's convection would serve as a focus for additional storms Friday afternoon. The favored area for this to occur would be east of I-35. Additionally, the dryline should be displaced farther to the west Friday afternoon where convection will likely develop across West Texas. We'll keep PoPs around 20% for most areas Friday with the exception of our eastern/southeastern counties. These areas may see a little better coverage of scattered storms. Otherwise, we'll be watching West Texas convection late Friday evening as it makes a push toward our western counties. We'll show some slightly higher PoPs west of I-35 late Friday night for any remnant activity that may approach. On Saturday, a weak front will slide south through Oklahoma and into North Texas in conjunction with an approaching upper disturbance. This increasing forcing for ascent along with the front will likely lead to an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms. We'll have generally high PoPs across the region, but will refine the details over the next 24 hours. No widespread severe threat is currently forecast, but the environment will continue to support a few severe storms with a hail/wind threat. The flash flooding threat will be locally high with any slow moving thunderstorms through the weekend. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 216 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/ /Friday Night and Beyond/ Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline west of our forecast area late Friday afternoon. Initial activity will likely take on more discrete/semi-discrete supercellular structures capable of producing all storm hazards. It is a bit uncertain how far east this convection maintains into our area, but a majority of the CAM guidance keeps at least a low end severe weather threat along/west of Highway 281 late Friday evening lessening in intensity as this cluster/broken line of thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor during the overnight. The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20 Saturday. Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas. The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35 as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any lingering outflow boundaries. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low 90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the forecast over the next several days as we further refine the details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ Convection is primarily south of the D10 airspace at this hour and will likely remain there through the overnight hours. VFR cigs will lower to MVFR later tonight and persist through the mid morning hours before improving again. Thunderstorm coverage will be scattered on Friday and likely favoring areas east of the major airports through the afternoon. We'll be watching West Texas thunderstorm development late Friday as it makes a run for North Texas overnight. An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected on Saturday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 83 69 80 68 / 40 20 30 60 60 Waco 66 81 68 79 68 / 30 30 20 50 50 Paris 65 80 65 79 65 / 50 40 20 60 50 Denton 65 82 66 79 66 / 30 20 30 70 70 McKinney 68 81 67 79 68 / 40 30 30 60 60 Dallas 67 84 68 81 68 / 40 30 30 60 60 Terrell 67 81 67 80 67 / 30 30 20 60 50 Corsicana 66 82 69 82 69 / 30 40 20 50 50 Temple 67 82 68 81 68 / 40 30 20 40 40 Mineral Wells 64 82 67 81 66 / 40 20 30 70 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$