####018005474#### FXUS64 KMRX 030545 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 145 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 POPs were nudged up slightly in the southern Valley and southern Plateau late tonight into the early morning hours. Consshort and HRRR guidance is somewhat high in that area but CAMs have very spotty light activity, so I was hesitant to increase POPs much before sunrise. That was the only minor change to the forecast for tonight. Thunder potential is fairly low through sunrise but a few strikes will be possible. Expect increasing clouds overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Key Messages: 1. Increasing chances for rain and storms tonight and into Friday. 2. While severe weather is not expected, a few instances of 1/4" hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible tomorrow afternoon with any stronger storms. Clouds increase tonight as high pressure shifts east due to a shortwave pushing in from the west. This shortwave will bring increasing chances of POPs, mainly after midnight. Precip most likely arrives onto the Cumberland Plateau somewhere around daybreak, then spreading further east into the east TN Valley through mid to late morning. From late morning into early afternoon we should see enough instability develop to produce a few scattered thunderstorms. Shear profiles remain very weak so no threat of severe weather. HREF SBCAPE probabilities of 500 J/kg or greater is around 50%. This lines up with what the HRRR is showing for tomorrow afternoon with SBCAPE values ranging from 300 to 800 J/kg. 0-6km shear will generally be around 20kts, so perhaps just enough to produce some 1/4" sized hail with any stronger updrafts. Along with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Again, just garden variety thunderstorms. High temps will be a touch cooler tomorrow with the scattered showers and cloud cover around with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Key Messages: 1. Near normal to above normal temperatures through the long term. 2. Unsettled pattern with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day of the long term. More diurnal pattern of convection last three days of the period Tuesday through Thursday next week. Discussion: Showers and a few storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the long term period as another shortwave rolls in from the west. By Saturday morning, the shortwave should be somewhere between western and middle TN. This wave will nearly be cutoff from the upper level flow and be a slow mover. Meaning, shower and storm chances remain on the high side through the day. While showers and a few storms will be in place Saturday morning, it looks like the highest chances occur Saturday afternoon. This is due to increasing instability and the shortwave pushing further east into our area. As with Friday, any stronger storms will have the ability to produce small hail and gusty winds but no severe threats are anticipated at this time due to weak shear. On Sunday, this shortwave will still be impacting the area as it won't completely lift off to our northeast until Sunday evening. This means another day of scattered showers and storms, though less coverage compared to Saturday. No severe threats, just garden variety storms. On Monday, yet another shortwave rolls through. You guessed it, more chances for showers and storms. Tuesday through Thursday, a broad and deep upper trough sets up across the western and central U.S. With high pressure to our south, this puts our region in quasi- zonal, southwesterly, flow pattern. During this time, shower and storm chances will be more diurnally driven. Also, stronger upper level winds are progged to move in from the west with the approach of the trough, which means higher shear. This will set the stage for an increase in severe weather chances. We remain too far out for much detail other than to keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days to see how next weeks' pattern evolves. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions will be predominant through the TAF cycle, with mid to low level BKN/OVC clouds increasing through the morning into the afternoon. Continue to expect increasing rain chances near CHA and TYS this morning, with chances for a few thunderstorms by the afternoon. Rain chances increase late morning to mid-day at TRI, and have kept thunder omitted. Recent hi-resolution guidance suggest by late Friday evening activity becomes more isolated so have transitioned the mention of showers and storms to vicinity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 64 81 63 / 50 40 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 64 78 62 / 60 40 90 50 Oak Ridge, TN 81 63 78 62 / 60 50 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 75 60 / 50 40 90 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...KRS ####018005760#### FXUS64 KSJT 030545 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1245 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...Severe weather possible today and tomorrow... A surface low is currently located just to our northwest, with a dry line across out western most counties and a cold front moving in from the north. Storms are expected to form later this afternoon and evening near the low, where the dry line and front interact. Most models have storms developing in the Big Country starting around 4 this afternoon and continuing overnight. We are seeing some cumulus development in Nolan County, which could be a precursor for thunderstorms in the next couple of hours. The majority of models show most of the activity staying in the Big Country, Heartland, and northern Concho Valley, with a few storms finding their way into the our southern counties. Instability will be very high this afternoon (4000+ J/Kg possible) and wind shear values will be sufficient for severe development. With the instability as high as it is, storms could very quickly become severe once they develop and outflow boundary's could trigger new storms. The main threat today will be large hail (2+ inches), but damaging winds and an isolated tornado are also possible. Localized flooding will also be possible with these storms, as rain amounts could exceed 2 inches under isolated storms. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler for the Big Country, as the cold front keeps winds from the north and east for the start of Friday. Winds will return back to the southeast for much of the area and the dry line will retreat westward again, leaving us with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. CAPE values could be in excess of 3000 J/Kg by the late afternoon. Weak convergence on any residual boundaries and an upper level disturbance aloft could be enough to produce storms in the late afternoon. CAMs are differing on coverage for tomorrow. The HRRR is bringing much more widespread activity, with storms developing to the west and moving into the area. With the large instability and sufficient shear, any storm that develops could produce very large hail, strong winds, and possibly a tornado. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Thunderstorm chances will persist across the area into the upcoming weekend. On Saturday, a cold front will push south into north Texas during the afternoon hours and then sag south into portions of the Big Country Saturday evening. Also, a dryline will be situated across west Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front and dryline by late afternoon and early evening, as large scale ascent increases due to an embedded shortwave in southwest flow aloft. The airmass within the warm sector will be moist and unstable, with PW (precipitable water) values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches and CAPE's around 3000 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms should become quite numerous across the area Saturday evening into the overnight hours, as a strong easterly low level jet develops. Heavy rainfall is possible, along with a threat for severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. At this time, the greatest threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall will be from the Concho Valley and Heartland north into the Big Country. With southwest flow aloft continuing on Sunday, there will be a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Given adequate shear and instability, additional severe storms are possible. A large upper trough is expected to move north of our area on Monday, with the dryline mixing east into eastern portions of the forecast area by late afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop along and east of the dryline over far eastern sections Monday afternoon but the better chances will stay north and east of the area. Looking for a dry forecast Tuesday through Thursday, along with above normal temperatures through the period, with temperatures pushing well into the 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR to MVFR ceilings are currently present across the area. Low-end MVFR to IFR stratus is expected to overspread the area in the coming hours, impacting all terminals through the remainder of the overnight hours and continuing until mid/late morning. Ceilings should lift back to VFR between 16-18Z with clearing from southwest to northeast. Some degradations in visibility will be possible, especially at KBBD and KJCT through 12Z. Winds out of the southeast will increase tomorrow afternoon and may become gusty to around 20 kts at some sites. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening hours but due to uncertainty in overall coverage, have left a mention of VCTS. Upgrades to prevailing groups in future updates will likely be needed as hi-res guidance continues to come in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 64 80 61 / 40 40 70 90 San Angelo 90 64 87 63 / 40 30 60 80 Junction 90 66 87 65 / 30 20 30 70 Brownwood 83 66 81 63 / 30 40 60 80 Sweetwater 84 63 79 61 / 40 40 80 90 Ozona 89 64 84 63 / 40 30 40 70 Brady 84 66 81 63 / 30 30 50 80 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...50 ####018005970#### FXUS64 KBMX 030548 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 110 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 This afternoon. A mid-level shortwave was over the ArkLaMiss Region at midday while mid-level ridging was over much of the Southern and Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure was centered to our northeast across much of the Carolinas and Southern Virginia. Locally, there is the remnants of a weak low-level boundary that is only discernible by surface dew point analysis. This boundary generally extended from northwest to southeast along the Interstate 22 / U.S. Highway 280 corridor and latest satellite imagery depicts low to mid-level cumulus development near and northeast of this boundary. A few relatively shallow showers may eventually develop near/north of this diffuse moisture gradient with the lower-level cumulus through afternoon, but substantial dry air aloft generally above 700 mb will help limit vertical development. Highs will range from the upper 80s northeast to around 90 far southeast. Winds will increase from the south and southeast at 7-14 mph. Tonight. The mid-level shortwave is forecast to weaken with time as it moves over our area overnight, but enough forcing from this disturbance and the accompanying convective outflow boundary is expected to support isolated showers generally along and northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor with potential for a few showers across the southwest arching northeast to south of Anniston. Scattered showers will be possible across our far northwest counties where a stray thunderstorm will be possible as well. Some patchy fog is forecast to develop before daybreak across the far southwest counties. Winds will be from the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s in the higher elevations east to the upper 60s southwest. Friday. The initial mid-level shortwave will continue to become more diffuse with time as it moves over East Tennessee and North- Central Georgia by mid-morning while a more defined shortwave approaches from the southwest, moving over the area toward mid to late afternoon. A cold front will become stationary to our northwest, extending from the Middle Ohio River Valley southwest through the Mid-South Region and extending further west into Central Texas. Chances for showers with some thunderstorms northwest will continue through the morning, with a decrease in coverage and intensity expected due to the departing shortwave before activity increases across all but our far southeast counties in the afternoon as the stronger shortwave arrives. Winds will become southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s far northwest to the upper 80s far southeast. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 208 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 No changes in the forecast for this weekend through early next week. Several shortwaves will slide through the region over the weekend leading to continued rain chances. It's unlikely that it'll be raining nonstop, but nailing down when each wave of rain/thunderstorms move through the area will be challenging. Otherwise, warm weather is expected through midweek. 25/Owen Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this system so severe weather is not expected. Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating. Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow strengthens for end of this period. 16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024 A zonal upper flow pattern across the southern United States with weak ridging along the Gulf Coast will result in scattered to numerous showers with embedded tstms impacting mainly north Alabama thru the period. Cigs will stay mostly aoa 5000 ft agl with lcl vsbys blo 3 miles in heavy showers. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with 40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and spread east through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 62 82 61 / 40 60 70 30 Anniston 85 63 83 63 / 40 60 70 30 Birmingham 84 64 83 64 / 40 60 60 20 Tuscaloosa 84 64 84 64 / 40 50 50 20 Calera 84 64 83 64 / 20 40 50 20 Auburn 85 66 83 66 / 20 20 60 20 Montgomery 87 65 87 65 / 20 20 40 20 Troy 87 65 87 64 / 20 20 40 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...58/rose ####018004183#### FXUS64 KLZK 030549 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered areas of precipitation moving northeast across the forecast area, with a few convective cells with lightning affecting the delta region of the state. This activity is promoted by short wavelength energy approaching the state. This activity will continue through most of the overnight hours, with the greatest coverage of precipitation expected across extreme eastern sections of the forecast area. Will have several quick moving fronts approach and affect the forecast area during the rest of the forecast period. Climatologically, it is an uncommon instance that a front approaching the forecast area would not support severe thunderstorm formation. At this time, however, a review of forecast fields indicate that those values are not in the parameter space that favors severe thunderstorm formation. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Not many appreciable changes have been made to the forecast/grids this afternoon as new guidance remains in relatively good agreement with current thinking that our sensible weather will initially be unsettled. Any differences were blended together with consensus between models seeming to be the best way to go. Period initiates with upper troughing over the upper midwest and a sprawling upper low /trough sitting off the Oregon coast. On the surface, a cold front will be sitting over northwest Arkansas where it will remain through late Sunday. Upper wave kicking out of the main trough will interact with the boundary as it starts to move to the north as a warm front Sunday, resulting in a broad area of showers and thunderstorms with the highest QPF over the northwest portion of the state. Aforementioned western system will lift out early next week and move into the northern high plains. Warm front will lift to the north of the area allowing temperatures to rise to well above seasonal averages. As the system moves into the northern plains, another cold front will be approaching as the parent low occludes out. This front will likely remain to the north and west of the state and while precipitation chances will decrease, they will not entirely go away. The highest chances of precipitation from Tuesday onward will be across the north and west, closer to that front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A variety of CIGs are expected overnight ranging from VFR to IFR. Low stratus is anticipated to become more widespread heading through the overnight period as a weak system moves towards the region. Some PoPs are expected on Fri, however confidence in placement and timing remain low owing to the system being weak. Conds should improve to mainly VFR late in the period but SHRA may linger over Srn sites, on and off, through much of the period. Winds will be light out of the S/SE at 10 knots or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 79 63 82 64 / 30 20 60 30 Camden AR 79 63 82 64 / 70 30 40 20 Harrison AR 76 61 78 59 / 30 20 70 30 Hot Springs AR 80 64 81 64 / 70 20 50 30 Little Rock AR 80 65 84 67 / 60 30 50 30 Monticello AR 78 64 84 67 / 70 30 40 20 Mount Ida AR 79 63 80 64 / 60 20 60 40 Mountain Home AR 78 62 80 60 / 30 10 60 30 Newport AR 79 64 84 64 / 30 20 50 20 Pine Bluff AR 79 64 83 66 / 70 30 40 30 Russellville AR 81 64 81 64 / 50 20 60 30 Searcy AR 79 63 83 64 / 50 20 50 30 Stuttgart AR 79 65 84 67 / 60 40 50 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....57 AVIATION...70