####018006410#### FXUS62 KRAH 030550 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level high pressure ridge extending over the area this morning will shift to our southeast later today. A surface backdoor front will drop into northeast North Carolina tonight then stall out, holding over North Carolina through Saturday before slowly washing out. A series of weak upper level disturbances will move through the region from late today through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM Friday... A last largely dry day before we start trending wetter, esp W. Very weak surface troughing sits over the W Piedmont of NC currently, capped by the mid-upper level ridge axis extending over the central and eastern Carolinas. PWs remain on the low side, under 1" except in our far S (where there is a risk for some stratus and fog for a few hours early this morning). With stable and dry mid levels, we'll again be dry today, albeit with increasing high then mid level clouds, along with a few high-based afternoon cu, as a mid level perturbation/remnant MCV currently over the Mid South shifts eastward into our area. Low level thicknesses will again be well above normal, with models showing values several meters higher than yesterday when we reached the upper 80s to lower 90s. The gradual increase and thickening of clouds will curb heating slightly, but we should still be able to reach the upper 80s to around 90, perhaps a few lower 90s east, close to but generally below record highs (see climate section below). As the steadily dampening wave shifts E of the Appalachians, clouds will continue to spread in tonight from the W, with PWs near or above 1.5" spreading into at least the Piedmont and Sandhills. CAPE is minimal and elevated, and the flattening wave and weak mid level flow will provide little in the way of dynamic forcing for ascent. but the deepening moisture and a couple hundred J/kg will be enough to support isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm overnight, in the Triad this evening then spreading into the rest of the Piedmont after midnight. In addition, models are in good agreement that the backdoor front now stretching across the Mid Atlantic region will continue to push southward into our area late tonight, bringing an area of stratus spreading in from the N and NE, and increasing low level mass convergence along this backdoor front may prompt additional light rain areas in its vicinity. Lows from around 60 the mid 60s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM / /... As of 230 PM Thursday... To be updated shortly. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... The first half of the extended forecast will feature an unsettled pattern. A weak surface low will be over the Ohio River Valley Saturday morning, slowly move to the east over Virginia by Sunday morning, then dissipate. A cold front will extend to the south from the low, and the front will be the primary rain-maker over the weekend. Extended likely pops a bit farther to the east both Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter inch in the southeast to nearly an inch in the northwest - needed rainfall, but not enough to change the drought status (almost all of which is D0 - abnormally dry - in our area). All locations will have at least a slight chance of thunderstorms, although instability values will be a little higher in the west. After the upper 80s and lower 90s of today and tomorrow, highs will be more seasonable for the weekend, ranging from the upper 70s the mid 80s. An upper level trough will approach the area Monday and move overhead Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to all locations. The forecast should then generally dry out for the middle of the week. However, an upper ridge will build across the Carolinas, and with southwesterly surface flow, temperatures will rise above normal again. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs should be in the lower 90s with lows around 70, values more typical of July and August than early May. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1250 AM Friday... Except for a chance of MVFR vsbys/cigs in the SE including FAY 08z- 12z this morning, VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least this afternoon across all central NC terminals, but with gradually increasing high and mid clouds. Starting after 21z, an upper level disturbance along with daytime heating will prompt isolated to scattered showers and a few storms pushing into the west (INT/GSO), with these chances lasting through the overnight hours, however VFR conditions will still be dominant. However, starting after 04z tonight, a backdoor front dropping into far N and NE sections will bring a good chance for IFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys into northern areas, along and behind the front. However, these adverse aviation conditions should hold N of the primary terminals until after the end of the TAF valid period at 06z Sat. Looking beyond 06z Sat, as the backdoor front settles southward well into central NC, sub-VFR cigs/vsbys are expected to spread south through most of the area 06z-12z Sat. As the front slowly lifts back north and washes out, conditions will slowly improve back to VFR Sat from SE to NW, with the Triad (INT/GSO) remaining sub-VFR well into the afternoon. But the chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms will be high, especially at INT/GSO/RDU, Sat through Mon, particularly each afternoon and evening, with locally gusty winds in and near storms, and a chance for patchy early-morning fog areawide. -GIH && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 3: KGSO: 92/1959 KRDU: 93/1959 KFAY: 95/1913 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Hartfield ####018004270#### FXUS63 KFGF 030551 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1251 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several rounds of rain are expected through the remainder of the week and into next week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low continues to track off to the northeast and is now centered over northwest MN at 06Z. Rain is now confined to areas north of HWY 2 with heaviest pocket from Crookston to Thief River Falls and east into the Red Lakes. This will continue northeast with the low as we see the bulk of these showers taper off by sunrise with clear skies for areas south of HWY 200 potentially giving the opportunity for some to catch a glimpse of the aurora tonight under a waning crescent moon. UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast and timing of rain on track. Low is right over Grand Forks at 03z. East wind at KGFK and west wind at KRDR. Rain area moving north with back edge of the rain approaching Grand Forks area. Rain in the eastern fcst area (Bemidji) remains less than desired as that area up to Baudette keeps missing the higher rain totals. Other than minor tweeks to grids no further weather issues noted overnight. . UPDATE Issued at 724 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Low pressure is moving north-northeast and near Mayville ND at 00z. Sfc front located from low to Fargo then to Fergus Falls to Alexandria. WSW to west winds behind it and south-southeast winds ahead of it. Area of moderate rain ahead of the low moving north and into the northern valley. Scattered showers and a few t-storms western and central ND will weaken as they move east but still worth watching. Otherwise trend overnight will be to watch clearing line and pop trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Active H5 pattern persists through much of the forecast period, with multiple chances to see rain and isolated thunderstorms. Shortwave troughing exits the region this evening and overnight, with a break in shower activity overnight for most areas. Another, slow moving, upper low traverses the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the region Friday afternoon through around midday Saturday. The best chance for thunderstorm activity will be along and just south of the International Border. This will gradually work to the east, with a period of dry weather starting Saturday afternoon and evening. H5 shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday ahead of our next system. Look for warmer and relatively dry weather through much of the day, with increasing rain chances late Sunday evening. A relatively deep upper low is being picked up by multiple ensembles heading into Monday. Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher with this system, along with a better chance for increased instability as moisture return is well-supported. Troughing will favor negative tilting ahead of the upper low, and a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons respectively. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Skies have partially cleared over SE ND into WC MN with edge of main clouds near a Cooperstown to Hillsboro to Bemidji line. As sfc low continues to move north and into Manitoba prior to 12z do look for remaining areas with southeast winds to turn southwest, with all areas seeing a west-southwest wind Friday at times gusty in the midday and aftn to near 30 kts, more so in E ND and the RRV. Clouds are likely to remain along Hwy 2 and north thru Friday daytime. Though MVFR cigs may improve some as rain ends, and Friday will see cloud bases more in the lower end VFR range. CU may bring some lower end VFR ceilings back into SE ND/WC MN midday and aftn Friday as well. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Riddle ####018010812#### FXUS61 KAKQ 030551 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 151 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front pushes into the Maryland eastern shore late tonight, then inland across the remainder of the area on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 905 PM EDT Thursday... Latest analysis reveals sfc ridge offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this evening. Meanwhile to the north, 1024+mb sfc high pressure is building south from Ontario and Quebec into the northeastern US. This feature is also driving weakening low pressure over eastern New England south and offshore of the northeast coast. Aloft, anomalously strong mid/upper level ridging which allowed for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland today remains in place this evening from the mid-south to the southeast coast, extending north across the mid- Atlantic region. Mainly quiet weather prevails through the night, with high pressure in place just offshore. Guidance suggests that the surface low to the north dives farther south overnight, with the associated cold front diving across the MD eastern shore after 10z/6am late tonight into Friday morning. Expect winds to back to the NE post-frontal, with an increase in clouds over the Delmarva for the afternoon, reaching eastern VA by mid to late afternoon. This evening's guidance is a bit too aggressive right now given latest regional observations, and do not think fog will be an issue tonight given that we had a day of full sunshine today to mix out much of the remnant moisture from yesterday's light rain. That said, some spotty ground fog will be possible, with the best chances mainly east of US-13 on the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore. Mild early morning lows will be in the mid- upper 50s across the MD eastern shore and lower 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 905 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Increasing clouds from NE to SW Friday into Friday night as a cold front drops across the region. - Rain chances increase mainly west of the bay tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Lighter, intermittent rainfall possible along the coast tomorrow night and into Saturday. The backdoor front will continue to move SW across the region on Friday. Models have good timing on the front, reaching the VA eastern shore and SE VA Friday morning, the RIC metro around lunch time, then to the southern Piedmont of VA by late afternoon. Latest CAMs show some pop up showers for areas mainly west of I-95 as the front moves SW. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs for the afternoon in that same general region. Could not completely rule out thunder as the HREF mean SBCAPE shows 500-1000 J/KG. There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area, with Ocean City likely staying in the 50s through the day, while areas in the southern Virginia Piedmont will reach upper 80s for highs. The temperature will likely remain steady or even fall slightly once the front passes your location tomorrow. Improved moisture return sets up for Friday night and continues into Saturday. Best moisture stays mainly over the Piedmont, and will also be helped by overrunning over top the low level wedge. The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Have generally undercut the NBM highs for Saturday, especially across the far NW. Highs will range from the mid 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties, to lower 80s across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 905 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages... - Additional scattered showers and storms on Sunday and Monday. - A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week. The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast. Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest SE VA/NC NC. By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains) moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 6 and 7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 AM Friday... VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 06z TAF period, with VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the night. A backdoor cold front dives southwest across the Maryland Eastern Shore towards sunrise this morning, allowing winds to turn NE, with MVFR conditions on the eastern shore tomorrow, especially east of KSBY to KOXB. The front will continue to slowly move SW today, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18-20z. Some scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm will be possible at KRIC and points west tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Flight restrictions (primarily low CIGs) are expected to spread to the other terminals starting late this evening and last into Saturday. Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for later today behind a backdoor cold front. -Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night. Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). Guidance suggests another bout of marine fog will be possible toward sunrise, mainly across our northern Atlantic coastal waters behind the backdoor frontal passage. E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. SCA headlines remain in effect for these areas from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt and 5 ft, respectively. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, seas are forecast to increase to ~4 ft. The best chance of 5 ft seas would be N of Cape Charles. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound. The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA). && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 130 AM EDT Friday... Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond. Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MAM/MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...AM/MAM MARINE...LKB/SW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018008487#### FXUS63 KLMK 030552 AAB AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Louisville KY 152 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Brief heavy rain and lightning. * Probability of thunder is 15-25% in the morning, 40-50% in the afternoon. * Rain and storm chances decrease for Saturday, but forecast confidence is still low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Partly cloudy skies were noted across the region this evening. Mid- high level cloud cover continues to push in from the west. Temperatures were in the upper 60s to the lower 70s across the region. Regional radars show some light returns coming northeast out of TN. Not seeing much in the way of reports of rain at the surface, likely due to the antecedent dry airmass in place. The atmosphere should continue to moisten during the remainder of the evening and showers will become more widespread from west to east overnight. Current forecast has this well handled, and only minor adjustments to the weather elements were required. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ========== Tonight and Friday Morning ========== Dry weather will continue for this evening and tonight, but clouds will be on the increase as our next system approaches. A mid-level wave will eject out of the ArkLaTex region and track northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley tonight, resulting in a moisture advection axis ahead of an extensive cold front associated with a sfc low that will be over the Great Lakes. We should begin to see radar returns after midnight, but dry low levels will likely delay precip making it to the ground until after 06z. A few isolated embedded rumbles of thunder may be possible overnight, but instability will be very limited and elevated above the nocturnal inversion. Shower activity will continue to spread eastward through the pre- dawn hours, and may peak in overall coverage between 10-15z as our PWATs maximize for the day around 1.5". PW values this high would be among the daily max for sounding climatology from BNA. Model soundings do show some limited instability in the morning hours after sunrise as well, so some embedded thunder will be possible then too. Overall though, the morning appears to be a soaking rain with an isolated thunder chance. The probability of thunder in the morning hours will be between 15-25% chance. ========== Friday Afternoon and Thunderstorm Potential ========== By the early afternoon hours, the cold front will be approaching the I-65 corridor. With numerous to widespread showers in the morning, skycover guidance does not suggest much clearing out for the afternoon, which is good news for keeping severe potential low. However, temps will still warm into the low to mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, leading to some sfc based instability. According to our DESI tool, 70% of HREF members support SBCAPE values greater than 500 J/kg tomorrow afternoon north of the Kentucky Parkways, and 40% of members above 750 J/kg. After 18z, the CAMs begin to show more a convective nature to precip along or just ahead of the front as the marginal instability is realized. Fortunately, soundings show very weak flow through the column, so there won't be much shear for storms to work with. Regardless of the weak flow, our probability of thunder increases to 40-50% during the afternoon hours with scattered garden variety thunderstorm likely. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Synopsis...Quasi-stationary weather pattern is expected during the medium-range period as mid-level ridging extends roughly across the East CONUS and a couple of northern-stream, shortwave troughs swing by the western and central portions of the country. The resultant southwesterly mid-level flow will drag southern-stream, mid-level vorticity waves from the South towards the Lower Ohio Valley, promoting daily rain/storm chances this weekend into next next. A low risk of strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Model Evaluation/Confidence...Overall, forecast confidence for Saturday remains relatively low with some improvement regarding the evolution of the second northern-stream trough across the central US early next week. For Saturday, the wettest models (NAM-12 and some runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) depict stronger, convectively- enhanced shortwave energy from earlier convection in the Deep South moving further west and north while the dry/drier model solutions represent a weaker wave quickly ejecting to the east. One thing to notice is that CAM guidance, including NAM 3km, support decreasing shower activity in the afternoon with perhaps isolated coverage. For next week, global guidance has started to converge on a similar output regarding the position of trough axis with some differences in the timing and structure of embedded shortwave energy. Given the aforementioned trend and continuing severe weather probabilities highlighted in the CSU and NCAR ML algorithms, a low risk of strong to severe weather is still on the table for Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Fri Night - Saturday...Weak frontal boundary will slowly translate through the forecast area overnight while slowing down as it approaches south-central Kentucky in the morning hours. Uncertainty in the convective evolution further south will play a key role in the precipitation and storm chances during the day on Saturday, especially in the afternoon. Should a wetter solution materializes, mid-level shortwave forcing along the stalled frontal boundary will enhanced storm probability and coverage. Taking into account a consensus of the 12Z model data, decided to support a dry solution reflecting decreasing rain chances towards the afternoon with a 20- 30 percent chance of thunder as sufficient BL moisture and convective temperatures (amid some residual boundary interaction) could force isolated convection. Lightning and brief heavy rainfall are the main hazards with any storm. Last but not least, there will be a renewed chance of showers and storms late in the afternoon and early evening as another frontal boundary approaches from the NW. Sunday - Next Week...Daily rain and possibly storm chances will continue from Sunday and onwards as enough instability combines with southern-stream shortwave forcing. Best chance for strong, organized convection is still anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday as the better dynamics and stronger mid-level winds spread over the forecast area. Based on available guidance, there is a low chance of severe weather without ruling out possible minor flooding if unsettled weather extends during several days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 First band of showers is just getting into BWG and approaching SDF, but with abundant mid-level dry air we aren't seeing any restrictions to cig/vis. Expect to remain VFR through the overnight period with light rain showers, though it could rain hard enough at some point to briefly drop vis into MVFR. A more stout band of precip moves through from mid-morning through early afternoon, with MVFR cig/vis, but not really dropping below 2000 feet except in the heaviest of showers. Instability looks limited so we won't mention any thunder except for a VCTS mention at SDF during the earlier part of the afternoon. Late afternoon into the evening could still see some isolated showers, but probabilities not high enough to include in the TAFs. Winds from the SE overnight will try to settle into a SSW direction after daybreak, then more easterly later in the day behind the main band of showers. Speeds less than 10 kt. Overall forecast confidence is medium. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...ALL AVIATION...RAS ####018005982#### FXUS63 KGID 030553 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1253 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storm chances increase (up to near 90%) Friday evening and night. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, and localized flooding. - Rain and storm chances increase again (up to near 70%) on Monday with severe storms possible (about a 30% chance). - High temperatures will mostly be in the 60s and 70s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Today and tonight... An upper trough extends from the West Coast to the Midwest. Breezy northwest winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures are mostly in the 60s with clearing skies. Winds will transition to the south tonight as the surface high moves east of the area. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Friday and Friday night... An upper trough from the west will begin moving over the northern and central Plains on Friday. Winds will increase out of the south to southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. The central part of the upper trough will move over the region Friday evening into Friday night accompanied by a cold front. Atmospheric lift will increase across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Fairly high wind shear, moisture, and mid-level lapse rates will be across the area as well Friday night. These conditions will allow for an increase in rain and storm chances (up to near 90%) Friday evening and night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with most of the area outlooked in a marginal risk of severe weather per the latest SPC Day 2 outlook. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat with these storms although some hail up to the size of quarters and localized flooding will be possible. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to range from the mid 30s to low 50s. Saturday through Sunday night... The showers and thunderstorms are expected to move east of the forecast area Saturday morning. Northerly winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday with clearing skies. High temperatures will mostly be in the 60s on Saturday. Winds will transition to the east to southeast Saturday night as the surface high moves across eastern Nebraska into Iowa. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Saturday night. An upper trough will be present over the western part of the country on Sunday with upper disturbances moving over Nebraska and Kansas. Some rain showers will be possible (up to around a 40% chance) in the morning and afternoon on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be in the 60s with breezy southeast winds. These breezy southeast winds will continue into Sunday night with low temperatures in the 50s. Rain and storm chances (up to around 50%) will continue Sunday night as the upper trough from the west begins to move over the central and northern Plains. Monday and Monday night... The upper trough will move further east on Monday and will begin to lift northeast by Monday evening with the upper low over Kansas and Nebraska. Winds will continue to strengthen out of the southeast to south on Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible (up to near a 70% chance). High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible (about a 30% chance) Monday afternoon into the early evening hours. The storms are expected to move out of the area Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the 40s. Winds Monday night will be gusty out of the southwest to west. Tuesday through Wednesday night... A big upper trough will be present from the northern Plains to the southern Plains on Tuesday. Winds will be gusty out of the west Tuesday afternoon across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures will mostly be in the 70s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will mostly be in the 40s. The upper trough will still be present over the northern and central Plains on Wednesday with a cold front moving into the area. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will mostly be in the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Relatively light S to SE winds are expected through at least the early morning hours with surface high pressure sitting over the area. As the high moves east, S winds will increase throughout the morning, with speeds of around 10-12 kts after sunrise. As a cold front approaches this afternoon and evening, winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens, with gusts of around 25 kts expected this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area this evening and overnight, with RA and TSRA mentioned at both TAF sites. There will be a switch in wind direction from SE to N as the front moves through this evening, likely around 04/03Z but would advise that this could be a couple of hours on either side of that, depending on how accurate the latest model guidance is. Expect gusts of at least 30-35 kts for a brief period as the front moves through. Showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible beyond the end of this TAF period, potentially out until 09Z-12Z Saturday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Hickford ####018008271#### FXUS64 KSHV 030552 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1252 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A moist and somewhat unstable environment remains in place across the Four State Region. This can make for challenging forecast, as any remnant boundary, remnant MCV/MCS, or weak disturbance could ignite convection across the region. For this update, decided to lean heavy on HRRR for modifications, as it has done a decent job with current convection across the Southern Plains. Not expecting much in the way of precip in the area for a large portion of evening into the overnight hours. However, decided to keep 20 POPs over the area, as an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out in this type of environment. The last several runs of the HRRR have been very consistent with developing and MCS across Eastern Oklahoma overnight, and shifting it southward into our zones north of I-30 after 3am or so. Because of this, decided to increase POPs between 1am and daybreak for the aforementioned area to chance and high chance, with high chance across SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A few scattered showers will continue to move northeast across portions of Northern/Northeast Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas through early this evening in the wake of the departing shortwave trough that brought this morning's MCS to the area. Additional scattered convection may develop this evening along and north of Interstate 20 along a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned convective complex. The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain during the overnight hours. For the last couple of days, model guidance has generally been in decent agreement that another convective complex will form across Texas and Southern Oklahoma before diving east-southeast and into our CWA early Friday morning, in a very similar situation to what we had today. The latest models introduce considerable uncertainty regarding rain chances for Friday. The 12z NAM continues to be far more aggressive than the remainder of the guidance. The GFS and ECMWF also depict convection moving east-southeast into the area but have trended downward regarding coverage, intensity, and QPF amounts. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the CAMs depict very little in the way of thunderstorms. Some of them either keep the next MCS to our west and southwest, or don't even show one developing. The NSSL-WRF is the most supportive of another convective complex, but has it quickly weakening with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex by 09z-12z. Most of the guidance tends to struggle in this type of pattern with a persistent southwest flow and a surface boundary well to our northwest. The trends in the CAMs are likely due to today's convection overturning the environment and lack of recovery of diurnal instability. However, with low-level southerly flow and warm air advection some surface- based CAPE could still recover tonight. If a convective complex does develop to our west, the key factor in its survival into our CWA will likely center around something that can help propagate the complex eastward like a mature cold pool or the development of a MCV. Unfortunately, as mentioned, model guidance struggles greatly in these scenarios. Based on the trends in the models, rain chances were lowered somewhat after midnight tonight through much of Friday. This also lowers forecast QPF amounts a great deal, as most locations are generally expected to see an inch or less of additional rainfall through Friday evening. Since the heavy rain threat has already diminished for today, the Flood Watch was cancelled early. The surface front that the next round of thunderstorms is expected to develop along should stall near or north of I-30 Friday morning before lifting back northward during the day. As a result, PoPs should diminish Friday afternoon and become increasingly confined to areas north of I-20 before falling below mentionable levels in most areas by midnight Saturday morning. CN && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Saturday is likely to be a very similar situation to today and Friday. Another weak disturbance in the southwesterly flow aloft will trigger thunderstorms along the frontal boundary across the Plains well to our north late Friday. What's left of this complex is expected to move into our area during the day Friday. Redevelopment along a residual outflow boundary Saturday afternoon should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the northwest half of the CWA. The front should sag farther south Saturday with yet another round of strong convection developing along the front and dryline over Texas and Oklahoma. This batch of storms should initiate farther south and should have a better chance of reach our CWA during the day Sunday. In addition, the shortwave trough moving across the Southern Plains appears to be more defined than previous days, which should result in increase lift helping to sustain the showers and thunderstorms. Thus, widespread high PoPs in the forecast for Sunday, especially in the morning. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Monday and Tuesday. The biggest change early next week is that a much stronger longwave trough is forecast to lift from the Southern/Central Rockies and into the Northern Plains. This should keep the best large scale forcing well to our north Monday and Tuesday. However, with strong low-level southerly flow and southwesterly flow aloft, there will be plenty of instability to fuel more convective development especially as a front finally begins to move into and across the area on Thursday. Rain chances are currently expected to be lower than in the short- term forecast period and more scattered in nature. Combined with strong southerly winds and warm air advection, perhaps the bigger story will be the building heat and humidity next week. Daytime high temperatures should be warming into the 90s in several locations by Tuesday and may be into the mid 90s in many locations by Wednesday and Thursday. Very humid conditions are also expected. This will likely push peak heat index values near or over the century mark across much of the area south of I-20. CN && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Plenty of disagreement to work with tonight as 00z CAMs have struggled to promote a collective convective decision across the airspace through the morning. Currently, thunderstorms are present west of the airspace, with upper level cirrus associated with the convection working west to east, and into the airspace. As a result, have prevailed high level OVC for many, along with any low level CIGs advertised in area ASOS/AWOS. Plan for now is to not stray far from the previous TAF package convection through the morning, and monitor trends through the overnight, with the goal of adjusting for the 12z package later this morning. Aviation interests will need to closely monitor overnight trends given how fluid the forecast is at this time. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 68 86 69 / 50 20 40 20 MLU 81 65 86 67 / 60 30 30 20 DEQ 81 64 82 63 / 40 20 50 40 TXK 81 66 83 66 / 50 30 50 30 ELD 80 63 84 64 / 60 30 30 20 TYR 82 68 84 67 / 40 20 40 40 GGG 81 67 84 67 / 50 20 40 30 LFK 81 68 84 68 / 60 10 30 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...53 ####018004629#### FXUS63 KSGF 030553 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1253 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand over the area this afternoon and shift east across the forecast area into this evening. - The stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of quarters and up to 60 mph winds...with heavy rain. - Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast with the next round of showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper level low pressure system located along the Montana / Saskatchewan border with an associated trough axis becoming negatively tilted over the northern plains. Broad southwesterly flow aloft was occurring on the southern side of this trough from the southwest U.S. into the CWA. A mesoscale convective vort(MCV) was lifting northeast into the CWA out of northeast Oklahoma, while a surface front was located over eastern Kansas shifting eastward. Surface based CAPE values have risen into the 1000-2000 j/kg range and with the front and MCV moving into the area, convection over the past hour has increased in intensity and coverage, generally west of U.S. 65. This afternoon and tonight: Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase ahead of the surface front. The front will be slow to push eastward through the area with the front nearly parallel with the upper level flow. The MCV will continue to lift northeast into the southwest corner of Missouri as well. Thunderstorm coverage will gradually shift east across the area through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the stronger storms will have the potential of some small hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph in addition to heavy rainfall. We are seeing some rotation in the storms in the southwest corner of MO with the circulation around the MCV and have had a confirmed small tornado already reported. So we can't rule out an isolated small tornado or two. Some localized rainfall totals of an inch to inch and a half will be possible in regions where multiple storms move across the same locations, otherwise we are looking at a broad area of a quarter to half inch of rain. The rain should end from west to east later tonight with the front pushing to the east of the area. Friday: This looks like the pick day of the 7 day forecast if you are looking for generally dry conditions. Outside of a lingering shower in the morning, it should generally be dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Friday night - Saturday: An upper level wave will track northeast out of the northern plains and into the upper Mississippi valley on Friday night. A surface front will begin to track east into the western portion of the CWA and we should see showers and thunderstorms start to push into the area. Rainfall will become more widespread over the area during the day on Saturday. Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to the area on Sunday. The better instability looks to be south of the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this activity at this time. Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will have better dynamics and instability for the potential of some severe storms which the Colorado State, CIPS and SPC are already supporting in their day 5-6 outlooks. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Visibilities are lowest over SGF with VLIFR ceilings and 1/4 SM. Expect fog to linger for the next few hours for all TAF sites with LIFR ceilings expected. Fog is forecast to dissipate a couple hours after sunrise with MVFR persisting for the morning. By the afternoon, mostly cloudy skies are expected but VFR ceilings should return. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Soria ####018006128#### FXUS64 KLUB 030554 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1254 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 A cold front, oriented in an arcing fashion from southwest to northeast, has moved through the western portion of the area and is moving through the northeastern counties as of 2 PM. Meanwhile, clouds have mostly cleared out ahead of the cold front where there is relatively rich low-level moisture. Anticipating that a very gradual low-level moisture gradient in the southern CWA will begin to tighten through the afternoon into a dryline, and thunderstorms are favored to develop in the mid to late afternoon. The primary uncertainty is regarding where the dryline will be when thunderstorms begin to develop, and where exactly they will develop. The chance for thunderstorms today is focused on the southeast, but it is possible that thunderstorms develop just south or east of the CWA. Regardless, with sufficient low-level moisture in place and steep lapse rates, MLCAPE will climb to around 1500-2500 J/kg, possibly slightly higher, in the southeast along with effective shear values around 40-50 kts. This suggests thunderstorms would become supercellular, and due to a relatively straight hodograph, a splitting supercell may occur initially. Very large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. A tornado can't be ruled out, but would be more favored south or east of Stonewall county. Again, this is conditional upon thunderstorms being able to develop in the CWA and being able to mature enough prior to moving out of the area. Low-level moisture moves in with upsloping easterly winds which favors the development of fog in the east and north, possibly with some drizzle. Can't entirely rule out some elevated convection, but there is low confidence in that at this time. Tomorrow, winds turn southeasterly ahead of another weak shortwave trough and moisture is brought back in. Mid to upper-level support for ascent looks rather modest at best, but a dryline is favored to push east in the mid to late afternoon which may help focus ascent and develop convection along the boundary. That said, if morning clouds linger and/or the cap is slightly too strong, then thunderstorms may struggle to develop. If thunderstorms can develop, forecast thermodynamic profiles look somewhat similar to today, but shear looks slightly weaker. Regardless, all hazards would be possible with hail possibly exceeding 2 inches in diameter. This may linger into a portion of the evening before weakening due to a loss of daytime heating. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 SUMMARY...A wet and stormy start to the weekend is in store for much of the area. On top of a low-end threat for severe storms on Saturday, eastern portions of the area appear favored to receive localized areas of substantial rainfall through Sunday morning. After a cooler weekend, warm temperatures look to quickly rebound next week as moisture exits the region. DISCUSSION...Model indications continue to suggest strong to severe storms may develop Saturday along and ahead of an approaching shortwave disturbance within southwest flow aloft. Placement of a cold front slated to advance southward through the morning hours, before eventually stalling out, may ultimately dictate where this threat will occur. Increasing east-southeasterly sfc flow ahead of the front should aid in strong moisture return Saturday, allowing for moderate destabilization by the afternoon hours with modest daytime heating. Model forecast soundings depict steep mid-level lapse rates in the presence of aforementioned instability and adequate deep-layer shear, suggesting large hail and strong winds would be the primary hazards in strongest storms. It appears however, that extended periods of heavy rainfall may be the more prominent element this weekend. Rich theta-e advection to the area combined with persistent enhanced lift along the remnant boundary should help to generate widespread showers and storms through Sunday morning. With anomalously high PWATs over 1.00-1.50" and favorable large scale ascent expected to be in place, higher rain amounts are certainly on the table, especially for areas off the Caprock towards the Big Country. Here, deterministic and ensemble guidance signal medium to high probabilities (50-80%) for rainfall totals to exceed 1 inch before convection pushes eastward through the day Sunday. Model guidance agrees a far more pronounced upper low lifts into the Great Plains on Monday, but will track too far north, generally leaving moist of the CWA high and dry. Can't entirely rule out some stray convection across the far eastern counties Monday afternoon, but chances are <20% at this time. In this system's wake, zonal flow aloft and rising 850mb temps are progged to initiate a warming trend, with highs in the 80s to low 90s along with breezy winds through midweek. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to develop at all three terminals tonight as low stratus fills in. Drizzle is also possible late tonight and may reduce visibilities to MVFR at times in addition to lowering ceilings. Thunderstorms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon possibally in the vicinity of all three terminals but will likely be isolated at KLBB and KPVW so thunderstorm mention has remained omitted from these TAF sites as well as KCDS. However, chances are higher that KCDS will encounter thunderstorms in the afternoon tomorrow. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...17 ####018007666#### FXUS61 KBTV 030554 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 154 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After lingering showers in far northeastern Vermont wind down, dry conditions in the wake of a cold front will continue overnight. Some low clouds and fog will be possible overnight, then skies should become partly to mostly sunny on Friday. Some rain showers will enter northern New York on Saturday, and the entire region for Sunday. Aside from the cooler and wetter weather on Sunday, largely seasonable weather is expected over the next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 151 AM EDT Friday...No major changes were needed to the forecast with this update, only some minor tweaks were made to reflect recent observations. Clouds cover has been increasing a bit as light northeasterly flow has become more dominant and these clouds should linger for much of the night. Fog has been developing in some of the sheltered valleys, particularly in the areas that saw some rain yesterday. Previous discussion follows.. Previous Discussion... A cluster of rain showers is currently skirting through far northeastern Vermont late this afternoon. It is associated with a cold pool aloft as heights fall in the base of the upper trough swinging southeastward behind the surface cold front that is now well east of our region. The pressure gradient behind the front is weak such that winds have only been around 10 to 15 MPH, and the northwesterly winds should diminish, as will any lingering light rain showers/sprinkles, after sunset. While anticyclonic flow will lead to continued dry weather overnight, the question remains as to how much fog and/or low stratus develops. Expect our mountains to be obscured by low clouds overnight due to a subsidence inversion and lingering moisture. Otherwise, have offered patchy fog largely where it rained this afternoon/early evening in northern/northeastern Vermont. However, conditionally areas of fog will develop in portions of northern New York where skies clear out. Compared to areas farther east, 925 millibar flow looks particularly light overnight. In contrast, light southeasterly flow suggests stratus will be more prominent east of the Green Mountains. For Friday into Friday night, no significant weather is expected with ridging building into our region. Temperatures have trended a touch warmer, with most likely highs now exceeding 70 in just about all of the Champlain Valley in addition to the St. Lawrence Valley. The aforementioned southeasterly flow will dampen warming in central and eastern Vermont a bit, but it should be a largely pleasant day once morning shallow clouds dissipate. Towards the very end of the period shower chances develop across our western areas, but there is quite a bit of model disagreement on if the upper level forcing is sufficient to get enough lift to support precipitation. The incoming wave looks to peter out as it runs into a strong ridge, so mainly we will see increasing cloud cover and mild temperatures with an increase in southerly wind Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...PWATs rise to 2 standard deviations above normal on Sunday as moisture with Gulf of Mexico origin looks to overspread the region. Forecast soundings show a lack of surface- based instability, so showers with brief locally heavy downpours look to be the main risk. While there could be embedded thunder due to elevated instability, no organized thunderstorms are anticipated. It will be quite breezy as well, with persistent southeast winds gusting 30-35 mph at times. Rainfall chances wise, it does look like areas east of the Adirondacks should stay dry for most of Saturday. This is because while a shortwave trough moves eastward from the Great Lakes, it encounters a stout omega block, and therefore the best forcing is diverted north of our region on Saturday. While there should be plenty of cloud cover, have utilized the 75th percentile of model guidance for Champlain Valley and point east. Highs should top out right around 70, or a few degrees above climatological norm for early May across the Champlain Valley. Expect 60s elsewhere, except 50s in the high terrain. Heading into Sunday, the omega block finally moves east, allowing the shortwave trough to approach closer to our CWA albeit in a deamplified state. This means that PoPs increase to the likely category with scattered to perhaps numerous showers on Sunday. While there would likely be widespread wetting rainfall, QPF amounts are quite manageable in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range. Indeed, the MMEFS shows none of our area rivers going into action stage. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...The overall weather pattern heading into the first full week of May can be described as unsettled with no real significant warm up or impactful weather. Unsurprisingly, the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors near normal temperatures and leans towards above normal rainfall. For reference, typical highs for North Country in early May are in the low to mid 60s, while average overnight lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s. The upper level pattern features a positively tilted omega block sandwiched between an anomalously deep trough across the Rockies/northern Great Plains and another trough over eastern Quebec/Newfoundland. H5 height anomalies favor a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, as positive H5 height anomalies give way to near normal values. Depending on the timing of the associated surface cold front, ingredients may exist for a few stronger storms. But with the potential storms being 5 days away, have largely stuck to a blend of guidance for this time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...Ceilings have been gradually lowering this evening and should continue to do so overnight. Confidence is relatively high that ceilings will reach IFR at BTV while confidence is lower whether ceilings will reach IFR at PBG and MPV. EFK and SLK should hold onto their low clouds and fog overnight before it scours out after daybreak. However, the IFR cloud deck at SLK could briefly scatter out a couple times overnight. The IFR ceilings at RUT are expected to remain the entire night but there is lower confidence there. Ceilings will rise quickly after daybreak and all terminals should be VFR by late morning. There should only be high clouds during the day today but the clouds will begin to lower and thicken tonight, though they should remain VFR for the first part of the night. Winds are relatively light and are generally northerly but they should transition to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Chai LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Myskowski