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FXUS61 KOKX 030606

AFDOKX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

206 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure builds down the New England coast through Friday.

The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal 

system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly 

through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the 

associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then 

stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front 

Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front approaches for Thursday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... 

The forecast remains on track. Surface high will build down 

from eastern Canada and along the New England coast. NE winds 

will advect in moist Canadian maritime airmass under a 

subsidence inversion, which should allow for advection of 

stratus late east to west for the late night hours. 



Stratus then erodes during the morning hours, but some cirrus 

will be around. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and lower

60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly above 

normal.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 

High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a

slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will 

allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE 

winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining

several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for 

inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds 

and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in 

late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night 

into early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early 

next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada 

amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by 

Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area 

and moves into the region, while beginning to flatten, 

Wednesday. The upper flow again become nearly zonal as a tough 

becomes sheared out across the northern plains and Great Lakes 

region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface one frontal

system slowly approaches from Saturday night through Sunday, 

while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the upper 

ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold 

front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these 

systems Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper 

ridge over the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The 

stalled frontal boundary to the south begins to track north as a

warm front Monday night and is expected to the north during 

Wednesday. The area remains warm sectored Thursday as low 

pressure over the northern plains become sheared. Temperatures 

will be near to below normal Saturday night into Sunday, then 

average above normal Sunday night through Thursday, with the 

warmest days being Wednesday and Thursday. Generally followed 

the NBM guidance, and for the days with higher temperature 

spreads, and potential for warmer conditions blended the NBM and

75th percentile. There is still a possibility that a few 

locations could set record high minimum temperatures Tuesday 

morning.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Behind a cold frontal passage overnight, weak high pressure

builds in through Friday.



VFR to start, though MVFR stratus likely works in into early 

this morning behind a backdoor cold frontal passage. Gradual 

improvement to VFR from E to W in the early to mid afternoon. 

Cigs may fall once again into early Sat AM with potential 

stratus development.



NE flow has developed behind the front with speeds increasing 

to around 10 kt and gusts toward 20 kt developing by 9Z or so. 

These gusts should continue thru morning push before gradual 

abatement. Winds continue to veer to the E/SE in the afternoon. 

SE winds subside less than 10 kt thru aft/eve push.



 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...



NE gusts of 15 to 20 kt may be more occasional during AM push.



Timing of windshift, and stratus development/dissipation may be

off by a couple of hours. 



OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...



Late Friday Night: VFR. Low chance of MVFR stratus toward 

morning. 



Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR stratus.

Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, 

increasing chances overnight.



Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE 

winds G15-20kt.



Monday...VFR.



Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.



Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 

can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90



&&



.MARINE...

NE winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt overnight 

into Fri AM, gradually diminishing from NE to SW on Friday. A 

weak pressure gradient then maintains sub- advisory conditions 

across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.



&&



.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.

NY...None.

NJ...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...MET/DW

NEAR TERM...NV

SHORT TERM...DW

LONG TERM...MET

AVIATION...DR/NV

MARINE...MET/DW

HYDROLOGY...MET/DW